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| Osborne's budget stole Labour's best election promises like a relative rummaging in the wardrobe | Osborne's budget stole Labour's best election promises like a relative rummaging in the wardrobe |
| (about 17 hours later) | |
| George Osborne is a man of enormous ambition. He is ambitious personally: do not forget that he became his party’s second most senior figure a decade ago, aged only 33. And he is ambitious for his party. Quite how ambitious we discovered on Wednesday, when he delivered his second budget in four months. The chancellor revealed his determination to conquer and colonise the centre ground of British politics, to make it the Conservatives’ own. In the process, he aims to drive Labour to the margins, pushing them back until they are corralled into a discomfort zone of his own making. Not content with defeating Labour in May, Osborne wants to put them out of business. | George Osborne is a man of enormous ambition. He is ambitious personally: do not forget that he became his party’s second most senior figure a decade ago, aged only 33. And he is ambitious for his party. Quite how ambitious we discovered on Wednesday, when he delivered his second budget in four months. The chancellor revealed his determination to conquer and colonise the centre ground of British politics, to make it the Conservatives’ own. In the process, he aims to drive Labour to the margins, pushing them back until they are corralled into a discomfort zone of his own making. Not content with defeating Labour in May, Osborne wants to put them out of business. |
| His chosen approach is devilishly simple. His goal is to recast the Tories as the champion of all those who enjoy the admiration or sympathy of their fellow voters – workers, especially in the private sector, pensioners, soldiers – and to let Labour be the advocate of everyone else. He wants the Conservatives to be the party of working people, leaving Labour as the party of worklessness and welfare. He’ll speak for the strivers, they can have the skivers – along with all those who either don’t vote or whose votes he’s happy to write off. | His chosen approach is devilishly simple. His goal is to recast the Tories as the champion of all those who enjoy the admiration or sympathy of their fellow voters – workers, especially in the private sector, pensioners, soldiers – and to let Labour be the advocate of everyone else. He wants the Conservatives to be the party of working people, leaving Labour as the party of worklessness and welfare. He’ll speak for the strivers, they can have the skivers – along with all those who either don’t vote or whose votes he’s happy to write off. |
| To that end, like a grasping relative rummaging through the cupboard of a dying family member who lies helpless on the bed, Osborne set about stealing any item of Labour clothing that took his fancy – picking out all those with mainstream appeal. The boldest act of theft was the one that came last, when he appeared to appropriate – and then top – Labour’s election promise of a minimum wage of £8 per hour by 2020. That was too miserly for the generous Mr Osborne, the workers’ friend. He would ensure the lowest-paid workers were paid £9 an hour by the same year. What’s more, it wouldn’t be called anything so grudging as a “minimum”. His would be a national living wage. | To that end, like a grasping relative rummaging through the cupboard of a dying family member who lies helpless on the bed, Osborne set about stealing any item of Labour clothing that took his fancy – picking out all those with mainstream appeal. The boldest act of theft was the one that came last, when he appeared to appropriate – and then top – Labour’s election promise of a minimum wage of £8 per hour by 2020. That was too miserly for the generous Mr Osborne, the workers’ friend. He would ensure the lowest-paid workers were paid £9 an hour by the same year. What’s more, it wouldn’t be called anything so grudging as a “minimum”. His would be a national living wage. |
| Related: Budget 2015: 25 key points at a glance | Related: Budget 2015: 25 key points at a glance |
| The euphoria of the Tory benches was so great, the chancellor repeated the paragraph, to ensure the TV cameras caught it. Iain Duncan Smith, who just a week ago was privately describing a living wage as a laudable goal but “very difficult” to do, did a kind of double fist-pump that became an instant social media sensation. All the pamphlets, thinktank seminars and Times opinion page columns demanding a “blue-collar Conservatism” had borne fruit: in an instant, Osborne had made himself the strivers’ champion. | The euphoria of the Tory benches was so great, the chancellor repeated the paragraph, to ensure the TV cameras caught it. Iain Duncan Smith, who just a week ago was privately describing a living wage as a laudable goal but “very difficult” to do, did a kind of double fist-pump that became an instant social media sensation. All the pamphlets, thinktank seminars and Times opinion page columns demanding a “blue-collar Conservatism” had borne fruit: in an instant, Osborne had made himself the strivers’ champion. |
| Of course, he had only appeared to do these things. When Miliband promised that £8, it was to come on top of the tax credits which low-paid workers receive. But Osborne had just swept those away. To provide a genuine London living wage in a world of much lower tax credits, for example, the chancellor might have had to mandate an hourly rate of £11.65. | Of course, he had only appeared to do these things. When Miliband promised that £8, it was to come on top of the tax credits which low-paid workers receive. But Osborne had just swept those away. To provide a genuine London living wage in a world of much lower tax credits, for example, the chancellor might have had to mandate an hourly rate of £11.65. |
| Even if Osborne had done nothing, the regular minimum wage was on course to reach £9 by 2020 anyway. And remember that Osborne’s living wage only applies to those over 25, thereby leaving out a big chunk of those who earn at the lowest end of the pay scale: the young. | Even if Osborne had done nothing, the regular minimum wage was on course to reach £9 by 2020 anyway. And remember that Osborne’s living wage only applies to those over 25, thereby leaving out a big chunk of those who earn at the lowest end of the pay scale: the young. |
| So as speech-closing rabbits go, the one Osborne pulled out was unhealthily thin. But as the chancellor understands to his core, perception matters at least as much as reality in politics. And yesterday’s perception was of a Tory chancellor implementing a classic demand of the left, giving a “pay rise” to the nation’s strivers. Who cares if the small print says otherwise? He’ll leave that to the policy geeks, the Daily Mirror and the Guardian. The big headlines will say exactly what he wants them to say: George Osborne, the workers’ mate. | So as speech-closing rabbits go, the one Osborne pulled out was unhealthily thin. But as the chancellor understands to his core, perception matters at least as much as reality in politics. And yesterday’s perception was of a Tory chancellor implementing a classic demand of the left, giving a “pay rise” to the nation’s strivers. Who cares if the small print says otherwise? He’ll leave that to the policy geeks, the Daily Mirror and the Guardian. The big headlines will say exactly what he wants them to say: George Osborne, the workers’ mate. |
| Related: Has George Osborne really introduced a living wage? | Related: Has George Osborne really introduced a living wage? |
| The rummage through the Labour wardrobe, nicking all the best gear, did not end there. Osborne clearly had not forgotten the tremor Labour sent through the Tory nervous system early in the election campaign, when the party won plaudits for its promise to abolish non-dom status: the loophole which allows multi-millionaires to pretend they’re foreign in order to cut their tax bill. Osborne all but stole that policy too, tweaking it just enough to insist he was doing no such thing. | The rummage through the Labour wardrobe, nicking all the best gear, did not end there. Osborne clearly had not forgotten the tremor Labour sent through the Tory nervous system early in the election campaign, when the party won plaudits for its promise to abolish non-dom status: the loophole which allows multi-millionaires to pretend they’re foreign in order to cut their tax bill. Osborne all but stole that policy too, tweaking it just enough to insist he was doing no such thing. |
| In similar vein, he promised a whacking 8% supertax on the banks and a kick to buy-to-let landlords who are set to lose lucrative mortgage relief. But he was careful to offset every such move, ensuring the comfortable would never be too discomforted. So while big companies may recoil from their new obligation to pay their cheapest workers a tad more, they can find consolation in the coming reductions in corporation tax, set to fall from 20% to 19% and then 18%. Bankers worried by the muscularly-named supertax on profits need not panic. It will replace the previous levy on all revenue, which hit them much harder. As for the middle-class property owner alarmed by the change to buy-to-let, there’s always the new inheritance tax giveaway to sweeten the pill. | In similar vein, he promised a whacking 8% supertax on the banks and a kick to buy-to-let landlords who are set to lose lucrative mortgage relief. But he was careful to offset every such move, ensuring the comfortable would never be too discomforted. So while big companies may recoil from their new obligation to pay their cheapest workers a tad more, they can find consolation in the coming reductions in corporation tax, set to fall from 20% to 19% and then 18%. Bankers worried by the muscularly-named supertax on profits need not panic. It will replace the previous levy on all revenue, which hit them much harder. As for the middle-class property owner alarmed by the change to buy-to-let, there’s always the new inheritance tax giveaway to sweeten the pill. |
| Of course, like every budget, this one has losers. They include the aspirant poor and young who will now lose their student maintenance grant – and will have to rack up yet more debt if they want a higher education – as well as the minimum wage worker who’s younger than 25. The disabled person who’s deemed not quite disabled enough will now lose around £30 a week, as she or he is downgraded to ordinary jobseeker’s allowance. Public sector workers will have to make do with a 1% pay rise for the next four years, just as they have for the last three. Given the way inflation is expected to rise, that translates into a pay cut for those on the public payroll. And woe betide the child luckless enough to be born third or fourth into a poorer family after 2017. There’ll be no more public cash for them. | Of course, like every budget, this one has losers. They include the aspirant poor and young who will now lose their student maintenance grant – and will have to rack up yet more debt if they want a higher education – as well as the minimum wage worker who’s younger than 25. The disabled person who’s deemed not quite disabled enough will now lose around £30 a week, as she or he is downgraded to ordinary jobseeker’s allowance. Public sector workers will have to make do with a 1% pay rise for the next four years, just as they have for the last three. Given the way inflation is expected to rise, that translates into a pay cut for those on the public payroll. And woe betide the child luckless enough to be born third or fourth into a poorer family after 2017. There’ll be no more public cash for them. |
| Related: What have young people done to Osborne to deserve such contempt? | Polly Toynbee | |
| Osborne is not bothered by any of that. The losers can go crying to Labour. The way Osborne sees it, Labour can go right ahead and be the party of losers, of benefit claimants and whinging state employees. Knock yourself out, says the chancellor. That would leave the Tories as the workers’ party, Labour as the welfare party. Labour would be noisy and passionate, leading a thousand heartfelt marches against “the cuts” – and nicely on course for yet another election defeat. All the rest of the political terrain would belong to the Conservatives. | Osborne is not bothered by any of that. The losers can go crying to Labour. The way Osborne sees it, Labour can go right ahead and be the party of losers, of benefit claimants and whinging state employees. Knock yourself out, says the chancellor. That would leave the Tories as the workers’ party, Labour as the welfare party. Labour would be noisy and passionate, leading a thousand heartfelt marches against “the cuts” – and nicely on course for yet another election defeat. All the rest of the political terrain would belong to the Conservatives. |
| That’s the long term game plan. Before 2020, there’s another election to win – the internal contest to become his party’s leader. To that end, Osborne was careful to throw a condescending bauble towards his rival, Boris Johnson, in the form of funding to preserve the RAF fighter command centre in Johnson’s constituency. The promise to spend 2% of GDP on defence was similarly designed to win friends on the Tory right. | That’s the long term game plan. Before 2020, there’s another election to win – the internal contest to become his party’s leader. To that end, Osborne was careful to throw a condescending bauble towards his rival, Boris Johnson, in the form of funding to preserve the RAF fighter command centre in Johnson’s constituency. The promise to spend 2% of GDP on defence was similarly designed to win friends on the Tory right. |
| But perhaps the most telling change was one of style. The usual gags and cheap, partisan shots were scarce this time. There were fewer micro-wheezes. This was the budget of a man who is aiming high. He wants the big prize for himself – and an even bigger one for his party. | But perhaps the most telling change was one of style. The usual gags and cheap, partisan shots were scarce this time. There were fewer micro-wheezes. This was the budget of a man who is aiming high. He wants the big prize for himself – and an even bigger one for his party. |