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A pure and uncut Osborne delivered a budget that sucked up all around him A pure and uncut Osborne delivered a budget that sucked up all around him
(about 1 hour later)
“No triumphalism” were the words jotted down by the new Greek finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, in a note to self ahead of his first Eurogroup meeting, a reference to his party’s victory in Sunday’s referendum.“No triumphalism” were the words jotted down by the new Greek finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, in a note to self ahead of his first Eurogroup meeting, a reference to his party’s victory in Sunday’s referendum.
George Osborne, still pinching himself about the totality of his party’s general election triumph, clearly did not put the same note on the top of his budget speech on Wednesday. In the breadth and scale of his ambition the chancellor could not fail to give the impression of being the master of all that he surveys.George Osborne, still pinching himself about the totality of his party’s general election triumph, clearly did not put the same note on the top of his budget speech on Wednesday. In the breadth and scale of his ambition the chancellor could not fail to give the impression of being the master of all that he surveys.
As the Tory cheers resounded at the end of the budget speech, standing at the back was the diminished figure of Boris Johnson, wearing the look of a man that knew his future rival had set the bar somewhere he has never been in politics.As the Tory cheers resounded at the end of the budget speech, standing at the back was the diminished figure of Boris Johnson, wearing the look of a man that knew his future rival had set the bar somewhere he has never been in politics.
Related: Osborne and his incredibly powerful Rabbit bring ecstasy to Tory benches
It was a redefining budget of scale and ambition that sucked up everything around Osborne, showing that he has the confidence to be a political jackdaw. There are parts on lifting the level of the personal allowance stolen from the Liberal Democrats. The section that restricted the criteria for those who can claim offshore, non-domicile tax status is lifted from the Labour manifesto. The northern powerhouse is a clever rebranding of Labour’s own devolution plans.It was a redefining budget of scale and ambition that sucked up everything around Osborne, showing that he has the confidence to be a political jackdaw. There are parts on lifting the level of the personal allowance stolen from the Liberal Democrats. The section that restricted the criteria for those who can claim offshore, non-domicile tax status is lifted from the Labour manifesto. The northern powerhouse is a clever rebranding of Labour’s own devolution plans.
Above all, the political centrepiece of the budget – the living wage – was an idea whose genesis was a campaign launched a decade ago by Citizens UK – the organisation David Cameron declined to address in the election due to a diary clash.Above all, the political centrepiece of the budget – the living wage – was an idea whose genesis was a campaign launched a decade ago by Citizens UK – the organisation David Cameron declined to address in the election due to a diary clash.
The specific proposal for a £9 an hour national living wage is borrowed from a commission proposed by Resolution Foundation thinktank, an ideas factory in the last parliament that happens to be chaired by Gavin Kelly, a former special adviser to Gordon Brown. It is a remarkable labour market intervention from a party that opposed the introduction of the minimum wage.The specific proposal for a £9 an hour national living wage is borrowed from a commission proposed by Resolution Foundation thinktank, an ideas factory in the last parliament that happens to be chaired by Gavin Kelly, a former special adviser to Gordon Brown. It is a remarkable labour market intervention from a party that opposed the introduction of the minimum wage.
The two short term goals for Osborne were to remain loyal to his manifesto but also jettison those nonsensical parts of the manifesto that he had never intended to deliver, but had merely inserted to wrongfoot Labour or abandon in a negotiation with his expected Lib Dem partners.The two short term goals for Osborne were to remain loyal to his manifesto but also jettison those nonsensical parts of the manifesto that he had never intended to deliver, but had merely inserted to wrongfoot Labour or abandon in a negotiation with his expected Lib Dem partners.
In the section of the speech marked pragmatic, Osborne smoothed the path of deficit reduction to eliminate the rollercoaster effect that he decided to insert in his pre-election budget to blunt the potentially Labour charge that he was taking spending back to the level of the 1930s. The deficit reduction programme is now slower than in the last parliament. As a result he has spread out the £12bn welfare cuts so they will be implemented over three years instead of two, slowing the pace of welfare cuts closer to the rate of pain pushed through by the coalition.In the section of the speech marked pragmatic, Osborne smoothed the path of deficit reduction to eliminate the rollercoaster effect that he decided to insert in his pre-election budget to blunt the potentially Labour charge that he was taking spending back to the level of the 1930s. The deficit reduction programme is now slower than in the last parliament. As a result he has spread out the £12bn welfare cuts so they will be implemented over three years instead of two, slowing the pace of welfare cuts closer to the rate of pain pushed through by the coalition.
This budget also offered Osborne an opportunity to do much more than implement a pretty tame election manifesto. This was a once in a lifetime chance for Osborne to present himself uncut, unplugged and pure. If the Osborne budgets that have gone before have been compromises, the outcome of sometimes last-minute horse trading in the Quad between him, Cameron,Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander, this was Osborne liberated. This budget also offered Osborne an opportunity to do much more than implement a pretty tame election manifesto. This was a once in a lifetime chance for Osborne to present himself uncut, unplugged and pure. If the Osborne budgets that have gone before have been compromises, the outcome of sometimes last-minute horse trading in the Quad between him, Cameron, Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander, this was Osborne liberated.
The theme was the creation of a high-wage, low-welfare and high-productivity economy across a five-year parliament. To achieve this, Osborne spread his wings. Little escaped his attention, whether an apprenticeship levy on all large firms, something Labour never dared implement in government, a commitment to spend 2 % of GDP on defence, or a promise to spread the idea of City mayors to as many as five more cities.The theme was the creation of a high-wage, low-welfare and high-productivity economy across a five-year parliament. To achieve this, Osborne spread his wings. Little escaped his attention, whether an apprenticeship levy on all large firms, something Labour never dared implement in government, a commitment to spend 2 % of GDP on defence, or a promise to spread the idea of City mayors to as many as five more cities.
For Osborne does believe in the power of government. In an interview with the Guardian during the election, he explained how he saw his role: “The longer I have done this job, the more I have become aware it is not just about presenting budgets or handling the big economic issues. You can use the Treasury to achieve a lot in Whitehall. For Osborne does believe in the power of government. In an interview with the Guardian during the election campaign, he explained how he saw his role: “The longer I have done this job, the more I have become aware it is not just about presenting budgets or handling the big economic issues. You can use the Treasury to achieve a lot in Whitehall.
“I guess I take a Heseltinian view of the power of government to intervene and shape economic developments. I think the Conservative party misses something when it does not have Heseltine and equally when it does not have Lawson – you have to have those things together and that is the successful Conservative mix.“I guess I take a Heseltinian view of the power of government to intervene and shape economic developments. I think the Conservative party misses something when it does not have Heseltine and equally when it does not have Lawson – you have to have those things together and that is the successful Conservative mix.
Related: George Osborne introduces new 'living wage' but cuts working-age benefits
“So the maths has got to add up – that is the Nigel Lawson end of it – but it has also got to have some vision, and it has got to have some belief in the power of government. I am not a Conservative that says the reason I want to get into government is because I don’t believe in government. I am a believer in the power of government as a force for good.”“So the maths has got to add up – that is the Nigel Lawson end of it – but it has also got to have some vision, and it has got to have some belief in the power of government. I am not a Conservative that says the reason I want to get into government is because I don’t believe in government. I am a believer in the power of government as a force for good.”
The big test, however, will be whether the maths add up on welfare reform. In total £12bn annual welfare cuts are being imposed over three years – £9bn through tax credits and £3bn through housing benefit. The big calculation is whether the large rise in the minimum wage for 2.7m workers aged aged over 25 to £9 an hour by 2020 – £1 an hour more than proposed by Ed Miliband – will be more than swallowed up by the massive chunks being taken out of the system of in-work tax credits. The big test, however, will be whether the maths add up on welfare reform. In total £12bn annual welfare cuts are being imposed over three years – £9bn through tax credits and £3bn through housing benefit. The big calculation is whether the large rise in the minimum wage for 2.7 million workers aged aged over 25 to £9 an hour by 2020 – £1 an hour more than proposed by Ed Miliband – will be more than swallowed up by the massive chunks being taken out of the system of in-work tax credits.
In its Red Book, the Treasury says the rise for an individual aged over 25 on the minimum wage working 35 hours a week will see their gross wages rise by around a third compared to 2015/16. That’s £5,200 in cash terms.In its Red Book, the Treasury says the rise for an individual aged over 25 on the minimum wage working 35 hours a week will see their gross wages rise by around a third compared to 2015/16. That’s £5,200 in cash terms.
However, the Resolution Foundation warns the cuts to universal credit allowances and other changes will lower the number of hours at which it is worth working from 16 hours a week to seven. That massively reduces the chief value of the benefit.However, the Resolution Foundation warns the cuts to universal credit allowances and other changes will lower the number of hours at which it is worth working from 16 hours a week to seven. That massively reduces the chief value of the benefit.
If there is a point around which a disorientated Labour party can regroup, it will be to show the political pyrotechnics of the Conservative version of the living wage just disguises a cut in state support for the poor, and a set of policy choices that will diminish work incentives. The Living Wage Foundation has already asked for an urgent meeting with Osborne to ask just these questions.If there is a point around which a disorientated Labour party can regroup, it will be to show the political pyrotechnics of the Conservative version of the living wage just disguises a cut in state support for the poor, and a set of policy choices that will diminish work incentives. The Living Wage Foundation has already asked for an urgent meeting with Osborne to ask just these questions.
If he wins them over, Osborne can indeed afford a little triumphalism.If he wins them over, Osborne can indeed afford a little triumphalism.