This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/world/asia/taliban-leaders-are-said-to-meet-with-afghan-officials.html

The article has changed 6 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 2 Version 3
Taliban Leaders Are Said to Meet With Afghan Officials Afghanistan Opens Initial Talks With Taliban
(about 5 hours later)
KABUL, Afghanistan — Members of the Taliban leadership in Pakistan were directly meeting with at least one senior Afghan official in the Pakistani capital on Tuesday, in what the Afghan government hoped could be a step toward beginning negotiations to end the Afghan war, according to the government and a senior Western diplomat. KABUL, Afghanistan — After years of failed efforts, an Afghan government delegation met with Taliban officials in the Pakistani capital on Tuesday, in a significant effort to open formal peace negotiations, according to Afghan, Pakistani and Western officials.
For years, it has been the Taliban’s position to refuse face-to-face meetings with the Afghan government, and the fact that representatives of both sides were meeting appeared to reflect a softening of that position. The Islamabad meeting was the most promising contact between the two sides in years, and it followed a series of less formal encounters between various Afghan officials and Taliban representatives on the sidelines of international conferences. The Taliban denied or played down those meetings, but by late Tuesday night had not issued any statement confirming or denying the Islamabad session.
The meeting follows a series of encounters this year between current or former Taliban figures and Afghan officials in Qatar, Norway and China, which the insurgents later played down or disavowed. But the meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, has an aura of greater significance because of its location, as well as the role Pakistani officials were expected to have as interlocutors. A peace process that would lead to the Taliban ending their insurgency has long been seen as a crucial part of the American strategy to stabilize Afghanistan after a long and costly 14-year war. But previous promising moments in that effort, including the formal opening of a Taliban political office in Qatar in 2013, either fizzled or backfired, with the insurgents expressing more interest in meeting with American officials than Afghan government representatives in any case.
Officials familiar with the talks said that the United States and China are both expected to be present. One of the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the American and Chinese representatives were there to “participate as observers” and had been invited by the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan to attend. Now, even as the Taliban are making some of their biggest gains on the battlefield in years, they have appeared more willing to talk than ever before. Some Western and Afghan officials see that shift as evidence of the Taliban’s long-term inability to dominate the entire country by force even if they have succeeded in capturing parts of it.
The talks were expected to begin Tuesday evening, but had not begun as of late afternoon, one official said. On the Afghan side, officials said the delegation was led by Hekmat Karzai, the deputy foreign minister and a prominent cousin of the previous Afghan president. Other members of the delegation included a member of the government’s high peace council, and several important regional representatives, officials said.
Afghanistan’s president, Ashraf Ghani, has spent considerable political capital over the past seven months trying to persuade Pakistan to sway the Taliban to explore peace talks to end the war, which has lasted well over a decade and is now in the midst of its fiercest fighting season to date. On the Taliban side, however, who it was unclear who was attending. Afghan and Western officials characterized the insurgent representatives as midlevel but significant, including some Taliban officials who had gone to the less-formal talks.
Mr. Ghani’s office said through its official Twitter account on Tuesday that “a delegation from the High Peace Council of Afghanistan has traveled to Pakistan for negotiations with the Taliban.” Afghan and Western officials said that officials from the United States and China were at the meeting as observers on Tuesday, and were expected to attend a followup session on Wednesday. China has played a growing role in trying to broker peace talks in recent months.
The meeting is one of the first clear payoffs for Mr. Ghani’s strategy, but expectations for concrete results are not high. The Afghan government and its foreign backers are likely to consider the meeting a success even if the only point of agreement is to meet again in the future, regardless of whether the fighting continues or escalates, according to one senior Western diplomat. The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid angering colleagues, amid concern that the Taliban would be less forthcoming if word of the talks leaked out. President Obama’s spokesman, Josh Earnest, said the White House welcomed the talks, calling them “an important step in advancing prospects for a credible peace.”
In the past, both the Afghan government and the Taliban have been wary of using Pakistan as a go-between for any discussions about Afghanistan’s future. For its part, the Afghan government has long feared that Pakistan would scuttle any peace talks in hopes of using the Taliban, its traditional ally, as a proxy force to maintain its influence over Afghan affairs. The meeting in Islamabad was an important victory for Afghanistan’s president, Ashraf Ghani, who has spent considerable political capital over the past seven months trying to persuade Pakistan to help bring the Taliban to the table.
Elements of the Afghan Taliban have chafed at their dependence on Pakistan and sought to keep it at a distance from its international outreach efforts. That, in part, is why it opened a political office in Qatar and insisted that any official diplomatic communications go through there. Still, expectations for concrete results are not high. The Afghan government and its foreign backers are likely to consider the meeting a success even if the only point of agreement is to meet again in the future, regardless of whether the fighting continues or escalates, according to one senior Western diplomat. The diplomat spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid angering colleagues, amid concern that the Taliban would be less forthcoming if word of the talks leaked out.
As a result, Pakistan’s role as a facilitator of Tuesday’s meeting is likely to be viewed with ambivalence by both sides, as well as by other countries that have long hoped for a peace deal. While it suggests that Pakistani attitudes may be shifting toward support for a negotiated end to the war, there is also likely to be wariness about Pakistan’s having a role in setting the Taliban’s agenda for the negotiations and holding significant sway over the talks’ direction. Afghan officials said the talks were mainly to set up a framework for further discussions, including setting up confidence-building measures both sides should take, and listing possible issues for negotiation.
Pakistan has a tangled history with the Taliban. The Pakistani military has long been accused of nurturing the Afghan Taliban as proxies. As the insurgency rages in Afghanistan, the Taliban’s leadership has taken refuge in Pakistan. In the past, both the Afghan government and the Taliban have been wary of using Pakistan as a go-between for discussions. For its part, the Afghan government has long feared that the Pakistan military would scuttle any peace talks in hopes of using the Afghan Taliban, its traditional ally, as a proxy force to maintain its influence over Afghan affairs.
Pakistan’s military and its powerful intelligence service have viewed the insurgency in Afghanistan as compatible with Pakistan’s regional strategy. But those attitudes are thought to have been in flux since December, when the Pakistani Taliban carried out a gruesome attack against a school in Peshawar. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has assured Afghan leaders that Pakistan made it “clear to the Afghan Taliban that they could either join the peace process or face the consequences,” a senior Afghan official who was present for one such conversation said in May. Elements of the Afghan Taliban, even as they have found shelter in Pakistan, have chafed at their vulnerability to the country’s military and intelligence forces. That, in part, is why the group opened a political office in Qatar and insisted that any official diplomatic communications go through there.
But the Pakistani role in aiding and hosting the meeting on Tuesday was taken by some officials as the most concrete sign yet that Pakistani attitudes toward the Taliban were changing, at least to some degree. Another turning point came in December, when the Pakistani Taliban carried out a gruesome attack against a school in Peshawar. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has assured Afghan leaders that Pakistan made it “clear to the Afghan Taliban that they could either join the peace process or face the consequences,” a senior Afghan official who was present for one such conversation said in May.
One early clue to the significance of Tuesday’s meeting could be in what the Taliban says after it is over. While Taliban figures of varying significance have met with Afghan leaders in the past, the group has often said afterward that they were acting as private individuals, not in their official capacities. After one such meeting in Qatar, the Taliban released a statement saying that it “should not be misconstrued as peace or negotiation talks.”One early clue to the significance of Tuesday’s meeting could be in what the Taliban says after it is over. While Taliban figures of varying significance have met with Afghan leaders in the past, the group has often said afterward that they were acting as private individuals, not in their official capacities. After one such meeting in Qatar, the Taliban released a statement saying that it “should not be misconstrued as peace or negotiation talks.”
After Afghanistan’s main peace envoy met with former Taliban officials in western China in May, the insurgents sounded a more strident note, deriding reports of the meeting as part of a disinformation campaign by Kabul. “The enemy wants to raise the spirits of its morale-lacking security personnel with such propaganda while publishing false news about the Mujahedeen,” it said in a statement.After Afghanistan’s main peace envoy met with former Taliban officials in western China in May, the insurgents sounded a more strident note, deriding reports of the meeting as part of a disinformation campaign by Kabul. “The enemy wants to raise the spirits of its morale-lacking security personnel with such propaganda while publishing false news about the Mujahedeen,” it said in a statement.
Details were scarce about who would attend the Islamabad meeting, but the Western diplomat said one of the Afghan delegates would be Hekmat Karzai, a cousin of former President Hamid Karzai and a deputy minister of foreign affairs. The Taliban delegation is expected to be led by a midlevel member of the Taliban’s leadership, someone with rank but limited influence, the diplomat said. The diplomat said that the Afghan government did not expect the meeting to have much effect on the fierce fighting currently underway, but that it hoped it could yield a framework for discussions in the coming months.
The diplomat said that the Afghan government did not expect the meeting to have much effect on the fierce fighting currently underway, but that it hoped it could yield a framework for future discussions in the coming months. In a telephone interview in June, a member of the Taliban delegation in Qatar, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he had not been authorized to brief the media, said that the increase in informal diplomatic meetings in recent months was a natural outgrowth of the insurgents’ stronger military position.
For the past decade, the Taliban have expressed a desire to discuss a possible settlement to the war not with Afghanistan, but with the United States, which it considers the real power behind the Kabul government. But intermittent efforts to establish such talks have largely faltered. The one deal the two sides have struck — the release of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, who was being held in captivity, in exchange for five Taliban prisoners held at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba — proved to be a one-time deal, despite anticipation that it might lead to more sustained negotiations. “Political progress is connected to military progress,” the Taliban official said. “The more the military achievements increase, the more the political efforts and activities increase.”
When the American combat mission officially came to a close at the end of last year, formal peace talks seemed less likely than ever, at least in the short term. Most military analysts assumed that the Taliban would try to press its advantage on the battlefield now that the Afghan military would no longer be backed to the same extent by the American air power that had supported it for years. And over the last several months, the Taliban have managed to make significant inroads across the country’s north as well as strengthen their hold over a large, contiguous belt of territory in the country’s south. Still, for the past decade, the Taliban have expressed a desire to discuss a possible settlement to the war not with Afghanistan, but with the United States, which it considers the real power behind the Kabul government. But intermittent efforts to establish such talks have largely faltered.
But the Taliban also face an unanticipated threat: the emergence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan. That group has quickly managed to attract a wide array of disaffected Taliban leaders and other insurgents who doubt that the Taliban’s reclusive leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, is even alive. The Islamic State has managed to push the Taliban out of at least one district in the eastern province of Nangarhar, and skirmishes between the two groups have broken out in several provinces. The one deal the two sides have struck — the release of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, who was being held in captivity, in exchange for five Taliban prisoners held at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba — proved to be a one-time deal, despite anticipation that it might lead to more sustained negotiations.
When the American combat mission officially came to a close at the end of last year, formal peace talks seemed less likely than ever, at least in the short term. Most military analysts assumed that the Taliban would try to press even harder now that the Afghan military is no longer backed to the same extent by American forces.
Even with an apparent opening for substantive talks, one concern is that lower-level Taliban commanders would bridle or even split off if talks with the Afghan government reached a serious point, especially given their more recent battlefield gains, officials said.
In recent months, too, the Taliban have faced an unanticipated threat that could intensify their risk of splintering: the emergence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan. That group, though not yet thought to pose a significant military threat in Afghanistan, has quickly managed to attract a wide array of disaffected Taliban leaders and other insurgents who doubt that the Taliban’s reclusive leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, is even alive. The Islamic State has managed to push the Taliban out of at least one district in the eastern province of Nangarhar, and skirmishes between the two groups have broken out in several provinces.
The Islamic State’s appearance in Afghanistan could persuade the Taliban to seek a political settlement to the war if the Taliban leadership believes fighters will continue to defect to the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. “The Taliban strategy of patiently fighting may no longer work, with ISIS here,” the Western diplomat said. “They’re very alarmed by this.”The Islamic State’s appearance in Afghanistan could persuade the Taliban to seek a political settlement to the war if the Taliban leadership believes fighters will continue to defect to the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. “The Taliban strategy of patiently fighting may no longer work, with ISIS here,” the Western diplomat said. “They’re very alarmed by this.”
On the other hand, the diplomat said, the Islamic State’s growing relevance could reduce the possibility of peace talks. Under that scenario, any move to negotiate peace would have the effect of speeding up defections to the rival group. “The question, of course, is whether these Taliban leaders can carry the fighters with them, or whether the leaders immediately lose their followers the moment they talk about peace,” the diplomat said.On the other hand, the diplomat said, the Islamic State’s growing relevance could reduce the possibility of peace talks. Under that scenario, any move to negotiate peace would have the effect of speeding up defections to the rival group. “The question, of course, is whether these Taliban leaders can carry the fighters with them, or whether the leaders immediately lose their followers the moment they talk about peace,” the diplomat said.