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The backdrop to Osborne's budget? Small positives in a greater failure | The backdrop to Osborne's budget? Small positives in a greater failure |
(35 minutes later) | |
The last set of economic figures before the summer budget provided mixed news for George Osborne. | The last set of economic figures before the summer budget provided mixed news for George Osborne. |
On the upside, industrial production was up by 0.4% in May – the latest month for which data is available – and by 1% between the latest two quarters. Industry accounts for around 15% of the economy and will help boost growth in the second quarter of 2015. | On the upside, industrial production was up by 0.4% in May – the latest month for which data is available – and by 1% between the latest two quarters. Industry accounts for around 15% of the economy and will help boost growth in the second quarter of 2015. |
The other piece of encouragement for the chancellor came from the performance of the North Sea oil and gas sector. Higher oil prices and a tax break in the March budget seem to have prompted firms to increase their output. Oil and gas production was up a chunky 7.3% between April and May. | The other piece of encouragement for the chancellor came from the performance of the North Sea oil and gas sector. Higher oil prices and a tax break in the March budget seem to have prompted firms to increase their output. Oil and gas production was up a chunky 7.3% between April and May. |
On the downside, the bounce in North Sea output merely recoups some of the ground lost over the past decade. Oil and gas production has fallen by 30% in the past five years. | On the downside, the bounce in North Sea output merely recoups some of the ground lost over the past decade. Oil and gas production has fallen by 30% in the past five years. |
What’s more, the performance of the energy sector masked another disappointing performance by manufacturing, the single biggest component of industrial production. | What’s more, the performance of the energy sector masked another disappointing performance by manufacturing, the single biggest component of industrial production. |
Factory output was down by 0.6% on the month and is still almost 5% lower than it was at its pre-Great Recession peak in early 2008. The strong pound is making UK exports less competitive, blunting the impact of a pick-up in demand from the eurozone, the main market for British manufactured goods. | |
It is a familiar story. The economy is growing but in an unbalanced way. Manufacturing is doing poorly at a time when consumer demand, the housing market and financial services are performing well. | |
Osborne has given tax breaks for manufacturing, but the real help has been for the property market: funding for lending and help to buy have both boostedthis sector. Changes to inheritance tax and the extension of right to buy for housing association tenants will provide a further fillip to demand. | |
Five years ago, the chancellor arrived in office pledging to rebalance the economy towards production and exports. The latest manufacturing data is evidence of his failure. | Five years ago, the chancellor arrived in office pledging to rebalance the economy towards production and exports. The latest manufacturing data is evidence of his failure. |
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