Tsipras’s wild promises have worsened the Greek crisis

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/03/alexis-tsipras-promises-greek-crisis-referendum

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Alexis Tsipras talks so much about democracy that one might think the Greek prime minister is a paragon of virtue when it comes to dealing with the voters. This is not the case. For a start, Tsipras has made a series of wild promises that he cannot deliver. Before January’s election, he pledged that he would tear up the country’s bailout programme while staying in the euro. The two are almost certainly incompatible goals, as the Greek people are now discovering at huge cost.

In advance of Sunday’s referendum, he has given further assurances. One is that savers’ bank deposits are safe. He also said he will have a deal with Greece’s creditors within 48 hours of the plebiscite, if they vote no to the bailout plan. In fact, deposits are at risk and the chance of a deal in two days is virtually nil. A good democrat only promises what he or she can deliver. Tsipras is a demagogue.

International standards recommend that a referendum is held with at least two weeks’ notice

Now look at Sunday’s referendum. The people have been given eight days to take a decision that will have repercussions for a generation. What’s more, the question is convoluted. The people are officially being asked whether to accept or reject an offer made by Greece’s creditors on 25 June. They are then referred to two complex documents, which have been translated into Greek from English. One of these was mistranslated to say that the country’s debt was unsustainable under all three scenarios considered, whereas it actually said it was unsustainable under only one of the three. The ballot paper also puts “No”, Tsipras’s favoured option, above “Yes”.

It is doubtful whether the referendum is legal. In Greece, plebiscites are not supposed to be held on fiscal matters. The country’s top administrative court was due to rule on Friday whether the vote was constitutional.

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Even worse, it’s not at all clear what the two options mean. Yes cannot mean accepting the 25 June offer because it is no longer on the table. In practice, those who vote yes will think they are voting for Europe. And what does no mean? Tsipras says it means giving him stronger negotiating power with the creditors. In fact, it is likely to mean that Greece quits the euro – something he denies.

The Council of Europe, Europe’s top human rights institution, told Associated Press this week that the referendum fell short of international standards. Its secretary general, Thorbjørn Jagland, said international standards recommend that a referendum is held with at least two weeks’ notice to allow sufficient time for discussion, with a clear question put to the people and with international observers monitoring the vote.

If, despite all this, Tsipras loses the referendum and resigns, there will undoubtedly be a narrative presented that Europe undermined a democratic government because it didn’t like the fact that it was so leftwing. The real explanation will be that Tsipras undermined himself with his undeliverable promises, confrontational approach towards creditors, inexperience and inability to read the situation properly.