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| Greek debt crisis: Varoufakis says deal is in the offing - live | Greek debt crisis: Varoufakis says deal is in the offing - live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.08am BST10:08 | |
| Jennifer Rankin | |
| Here’s our report on the latest developments: | |
| Greece’s highest administrative court will rule on whether the country’s bailout referendum violates the constitution, amid growing concern that the hastily organised vote falls short of democratic standards. | |
| With less than 48 hours until polling day on Sunday, the yes and no sides will stage large rallies in Athens on Friday evening. The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, is expected to turn out at the no rally, having attacked his eurozone partners for trying to “blackmail” his country into accepting a bad deal. | |
| Greeks are being asked whether to support an EU bailout deal that would grant the debt-stricken country money in exchange for spending cuts and further reform. | |
| However, the bailout plan no longer exists, having lapsed on 30 June. Eurozone leaders have lined up to say that voting no means saying goodbye to Greece’s eurozone membership, but Greece’s radical left Syriza-led government insists a no vote would simply boost its negotiating hand. | |
| Later on Friday, the Council of State will determine whether the vote violates Greece’s constitution, which bans referendums on fiscal policy. | |
| Full story here: | |
| Related: Greece's highest court to rule on legality of referendum | |
| 10.04am BST10:04 | |
| Following the earlier report that Greece’s deputy finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos said the government chose a referendum because an agreement would not be passed by parliament, the man himself has tweeted to clarify: | |
| Αρκετά με τη διαστρέβλωση. Αυτό που είπα στον ΣΚΑΪ είναι ότι η πρόταση των θεσμών δεν θα περνούσε από τη Βουλή, όχι η δική μας. | |
| Which seems to translate to: | |
| Enough with the distortion. What I said on SKAI is that the proposal of institutions will not be passed by the House, not ours. | |
| 9.37am BST09:37 | 9.37am BST09:37 |
| Faster UK services & construction growth has offset a manufacturing slowdown in Jun. Producers hit by strong GBP #PMI pic.twitter.com/fpr50u6uwP | Faster UK services & construction growth has offset a manufacturing slowdown in Jun. Producers hit by strong GBP #PMI pic.twitter.com/fpr50u6uwP |
| 9.34am BST09:34 | 9.34am BST09:34 |
| And here’s the UK services PMI, which showed the sector growing by more than expected: | And here’s the UK services PMI, which showed the sector growing by more than expected: |
| [BREAKING] UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (Jun) 58.5 vs 56.5 prior (Est. 57.5) | [BREAKING] UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (Jun) 58.5 vs 56.5 prior (Est. 57.5) |
| 9.16am BST09:16 | 9.16am BST09:16 |
| Here’s a roundup of the day’s PMI data so far, and it’s all relatively positive. | Here’s a roundup of the day’s PMI data so far, and it’s all relatively positive. |
| The eurozone composite PMI: | The eurozone composite PMI: |
| Eurozone economic growth and job creation at four-year highs in second quarter http://t.co/GTN93UoxQd http://t.co/EIg0C7tLWF | Eurozone economic growth and job creation at four-year highs in second quarter http://t.co/GTN93UoxQd http://t.co/EIg0C7tLWF |
| Eurozone services PMI: | Eurozone services PMI: |
| #Eurozone service sector PMI for June is confirmed at 54.4, the composite is revised up a touch to 54.2 from 54.1 initially ^KB | #Eurozone service sector PMI for June is confirmed at 54.4, the composite is revised up a touch to 54.2 from 54.1 initially ^KB |
| Ireland’s service sector: | Ireland’s service sector: |
| Strongest rise in Irish service sector activity since September 2006 http://t.co/s2Nif8LdWa | Strongest rise in Irish service sector activity since September 2006 http://t.co/s2Nif8LdWa |
| Italy: | Italy: |
| Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI Jun: 53.4 (est 52.3; prev 52.5) -Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI Jun: 54.0 (est 53.3; prev 53.7) $EURUSD | Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI Jun: 53.4 (est 52.3; prev 52.5) -Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI Jun: 54.0 (est 53.3; prev 53.7) $EURUSD |
| France: | France: |
| French Service Sector Activity Growth Accelerates To 46-Month High In June $EURUSD http://t.co/PcvgKKrGXm | French Service Sector Activity Growth Accelerates To 46-Month High In June $EURUSD http://t.co/PcvgKKrGXm |
| Spain: | Spain: |
| Spain's Business Activity Index at 56.1 in June, down from May’s 58.4 #PMI http://t.co/NzmHxnpcRO | Spain's Business Activity Index at 56.1 in June, down from May’s 58.4 #PMI http://t.co/NzmHxnpcRO |
| Spanish Services Activity Growth Moderates, Remains Sharp At End-Q2 $EURUSD http://t.co/rcSbqSSoBR | Spanish Services Activity Growth Moderates, Remains Sharp At End-Q2 $EURUSD http://t.co/rcSbqSSoBR |
| #Spain composite #PMI 55.8 in June (58.3 May). Signals c0.75% GDP growth in Q2 http://t.co/9Z6OwnTi6y pic.twitter.com/xraRihhw76 | #Spain composite #PMI 55.8 in June (58.3 May). Signals c0.75% GDP growth in Q2 http://t.co/9Z6OwnTi6y pic.twitter.com/xraRihhw76 |
| Germany: | Germany: |
| Final Germany Services Business Activity Index at 53.8 in June, up from 53.0 in May. Composite Output Index at 53.7 http://t.co/QsZgFL31cV | Final Germany Services Business Activity Index at 53.8 in June, up from 53.0 in May. Composite Output Index at 53.7 http://t.co/QsZgFL31cV |
| And from earlier, China: | And from earlier, China: |
| #China Services Business Activity Index at 51.8 in Jun down from May’s eight-month high of 53.5. Composite at 50.6 http://t.co/YCZiNBPEJp | #China Services Business Activity Index at 51.8 in Jun down from May’s eight-month high of 53.5. Composite at 50.6 http://t.co/YCZiNBPEJp |
| 9.14am BST09:14 | 9.14am BST09:14 |
| Here’s an idea of the timings for Sunday’s referendum: | Here’s an idea of the timings for Sunday’s referendum: |
| #Greferendum – Sunday’s Timetable (BST): 0500 - Polls open 1700BST - Polls close Shortly after 1700BST - 1st exit poll (1/2) | #Greferendum – Sunday’s Timetable (BST): 0500 - Polls open 1700BST - Polls close Shortly after 1700BST - 1st exit poll (1/2) |
| #Greferendum – Sunday’s Timetable (BST): 1900 ~ 20% of votes counted 2100 ~50% counted 2200 ~70% counted 0000 ~90% counted (2/2) | #Greferendum – Sunday’s Timetable (BST): 1900 ~ 20% of votes counted 2100 ~50% counted 2200 ~70% counted 0000 ~90% counted (2/2) |
| That’s if the Council of State doesn’t rule against it of course. A decision is expected by this evening. | That’s if the Council of State doesn’t rule against it of course. A decision is expected by this evening. |
| 9.03am BST09:03 | 9.03am BST09:03 |
| Greece’s deputy finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos has reportedly said that the government chose a referendum because an agreement would not be passed by parliament: | Greece’s deputy finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos has reportedly said that the government chose a referendum because an agreement would not be passed by parliament: |
| #Greece Tsakalotos admitted on SKAI tv that govt chose a refer so as to stay in power coz an agreement wouldnt pass in Parliament | #Greece Tsakalotos admitted on SKAI tv that govt chose a refer so as to stay in power coz an agreement wouldnt pass in Parliament |
| Story here (in Greek). | Story here (in Greek). |
| 9.01am BST09:01 | 9.01am BST09:01 |
| More on tonight’s rallies: | More on tonight’s rallies: |
| 3 demos in Athens tonight: pro-NO at #syntagma, pro-YES at Kallimarmaro stadium, communist PAME at Omonia sq. #Greferendum #Greececrisis | 3 demos in Athens tonight: pro-NO at #syntagma, pro-YES at Kallimarmaro stadium, communist PAME at Omonia sq. #Greferendum #Greececrisis |
| 8.47am BST08:47 | 8.47am BST08:47 |
| Speaking of polls (but not the Greek referendum this time): | Speaking of polls (but not the Greek referendum this time): |
| 68% of Germans think Syriza is to blame for the crisis; 4% the EU. Post-referendum, this isn't going to get easier. pic.twitter.com/Xam3XGIkwR | 68% of Germans think Syriza is to blame for the crisis; 4% the EU. Post-referendum, this isn't going to get easier. pic.twitter.com/Xam3XGIkwR |
| 8.46am BST08:46 | 8.46am BST08:46 |
| Meanwhile UBS has looked at the chances of Greece leaving the eurozone, depending on the result of the referendum: | Meanwhile UBS has looked at the chances of Greece leaving the eurozone, depending on the result of the referendum: |
| UBS sees overall #Grexit probability at 40%. Sees probability in the event of a Yes at 20% and No (70%) vote, alike. pic.twitter.com/4yyQoMgqcO | UBS sees overall #Grexit probability at 40%. Sees probability in the event of a Yes at 20% and No (70%) vote, alike. pic.twitter.com/4yyQoMgqcO |
| 8.44am BST08:44 | 8.44am BST08:44 |
| Varoufakis: "No" vote = debt relief deal "Yes" vote = June 26 deal Neither of these options, he omits to mention, are currently on offer | Varoufakis: "No" vote = debt relief deal "Yes" vote = June 26 deal Neither of these options, he omits to mention, are currently on offer |
| 8.41am BST08:41 | 8.41am BST08:41 |
| Varoufakis said that even if the yes side won, it would be “a narrow victory” and Syriza would still be the only party capable of running the country. | Varoufakis said that even if the yes side won, it would be “a narrow victory” and Syriza would still be the only party capable of running the country. |
| He admitted the Greek government had made mistakes: “It would be arrogant to day we hadn’t - we’re not professionals at this.” | He admitted the Greek government had made mistakes: “It would be arrogant to day we hadn’t - we’re not professionals at this.” |
| 8.39am BST08:39 | 8.39am BST08:39 |
| Deal more or less done - Varoufakis | Deal more or less done - Varoufakis |
| Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has said that whatever the outcome of the referendum a deal is almost done, and there have been private discussions with the ECB and EU during the week. | Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has said that whatever the outcome of the referendum a deal is almost done, and there have been private discussions with the ECB and EU during the week. |
| Speaking on RTE radio in Ireland he said a deal was “in the offing,” | Speaking on RTE radio in Ireland he said a deal was “in the offing,” |
| If the vote was yes, the Greek government would sign on the dotted line. | If the vote was yes, the Greek government would sign on the dotted line. |
| If no, they had had some decent proposals from Europe in confidence. | If no, they had had some decent proposals from Europe in confidence. |
| 8.15am BST08:15 | 8.15am BST08:15 |
| Referendum question not legally correct - EC's Dombrovskis | Referendum question not legally correct - EC's Dombrovskis |
| Greeks are being asked a question in the referendum which is not factually or legally correct, according to European Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis has said. | Greeks are being asked a question in the referendum which is not factually or legally correct, according to European Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis has said. |
| In an interview with Die Welt, he said: | In an interview with Die Welt, he said: |
| The referendum question is neither factually nor legally correct. | The referendum question is neither factually nor legally correct. |
| The proposals of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, which are to be voted on are based on a now expired credit program. The Euro Group has not accepted or declined. They do not correspond to the final state of negotiations - as Tsipras announced the referendum, we were still in the middle of the talks. The Greeks, however, on Sunday will also send a political signal to the rest of Europe. A yes will mean that they want to work closely with the other euro-zone countries to find a solution. A No would make the differences even more evident, and a solution more complicated. | The proposals of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, which are to be voted on are based on a now expired credit program. The Euro Group has not accepted or declined. They do not correspond to the final state of negotiations - as Tsipras announced the referendum, we were still in the middle of the talks. The Greeks, however, on Sunday will also send a political signal to the rest of Europe. A yes will mean that they want to work closely with the other euro-zone countries to find a solution. A No would make the differences even more evident, and a solution more complicated. |
| He added: | He added: |
| It would be wrong to assume that a No would strengthen the Greek negotiating position. The opposite is the case. Following the closure of banks and the introduction of capital controls to attain financial stability again, it has become more complicated and more expensive. Greece is in a substantially worse situation than it was last week. | It would be wrong to assume that a No would strengthen the Greek negotiating position. The opposite is the case. Following the closure of banks and the introduction of capital controls to attain financial stability again, it has become more complicated and more expensive. Greece is in a substantially worse situation than it was last week. |
| The full interview is here in German. | The full interview is here in German. |
| Updated at 8.16am BST | Updated at 8.16am BST |
| 8.03am BST08:03 | 8.03am BST08:03 |
| Markets have opened cautiously, with the FTSE 100 down just 4 points, Germany off 0.3% and Italy, Spain and France flat. | Markets have opened cautiously, with the FTSE 100 down just 4 points, Germany off 0.3% and Italy, Spain and France flat. |
| 8.00am BST08:00 | 8.00am BST08:00 |
| On the economic front, there are service sector PMI figures due from Italy, France, Germany and the eurozone as a whole, as well as the UK. | On the economic front, there are service sector PMI figures due from Italy, France, Germany and the eurozone as a whole, as well as the UK. |
| The US, of course, is closed for the Independence Day holiday. | The US, of course, is closed for the Independence Day holiday. |
| Updated at 8.01am BST | Updated at 8.01am BST |
| 7.56am BST07:56 | 7.56am BST07:56 |
| Greece’s finance minister clearly relishes the IMF saying the country needs an agreement on debt relief: | Greece’s finance minister clearly relishes the IMF saying the country needs an agreement on debt relief: |
| IMF Agrees With Athens That Greece Needs Debt Relief - The New York Times http://t.co/5c6vp0Y407 | IMF Agrees With Athens That Greece Needs Debt Relief - The New York Times http://t.co/5c6vp0Y407 |
| 7.54am BST07:54 | 7.54am BST07:54 |
| Introduction: Greece awaits referendum developments | Introduction: Greece awaits referendum developments |
| As the referendum clock ticks down towards Sunday’s vote, there is still an outside chance it will not even go ahead. | As the referendum clock ticks down towards Sunday’s vote, there is still an outside chance it will not even go ahead. |
| The Council of State, Greece’s top administrative court, is due to rule on whether it breaches the country’s constitution. Human rights group the Council of Europe has alaready expressed unhappiness with the vote, partly due to the speed of the process and also the question being asked. | The Council of State, Greece’s top administrative court, is due to rule on whether it breaches the country’s constitution. Human rights group the Council of Europe has alaready expressed unhappiness with the vote, partly due to the speed of the process and also the question being asked. |
| Meanwhile the latest poll shows a slight lead for the Yes side - those in favour of accepting the creditors’ proposals. The ALCO polling institute poll, published in the Ethnos newspaper, showed 44.8% for Yes, 43.4% for No and 11.8% undecided. | Meanwhile the latest poll shows a slight lead for the Yes side - those in favour of accepting the creditors’ proposals. The ALCO polling institute poll, published in the Ethnos newspaper, showed 44.8% for Yes, 43.4% for No and 11.8% undecided. |
| Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has already said he would resign if the Yes vote won the day. | Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has already said he would resign if the Yes vote won the day. |
| Meanwhile Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras remained defiant as he used another TV appearance to repeat his call for a No vote. | Meanwhile Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras remained defiant as he used another TV appearance to repeat his call for a No vote. |
| He hit out at former prime ministers who had lined up to support the Yes side, and also suggested the IMF, which on Thursday said Greece would need an extra €60bn of funding and that debt relief had to be part of any new bailout, could have spoken up earlier. | He hit out at former prime ministers who had lined up to support the Yes side, and also suggested the IMF, which on Thursday said Greece would need an extra €60bn of funding and that debt relief had to be part of any new bailout, could have spoken up earlier. |
| Jasper Lawler, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: | Jasper Lawler, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: |
| Post-referendum looks pretty bleak for Greece either way but a ‘No’ vote carries a lot more short term risk. Evidence from the past five months is surely enough to show that muddling out-of-touch bureaucrats in Athens and the Eurozone will not reach a deal before there’s a banking crisis. Without the European Central Bank’s emergency funding, estimates are that Greece’s banks are days from insolvency, even with only 60 euros being withdrawn a day under capital controls. | Post-referendum looks pretty bleak for Greece either way but a ‘No’ vote carries a lot more short term risk. Evidence from the past five months is surely enough to show that muddling out-of-touch bureaucrats in Athens and the Eurozone will not reach a deal before there’s a banking crisis. Without the European Central Bank’s emergency funding, estimates are that Greece’s banks are days from insolvency, even with only 60 euros being withdrawn a day under capital controls. |
| Later come major rallies for both sides in Athens, as supporters gather in the last hours before the vote. | Later come major rallies for both sides in Athens, as supporters gather in the last hours before the vote. |