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| Version 21 | Version 22 |
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| Greek debt crisis: referendum to go ahead as court rejects appeal | Greek debt crisis: referendum to go ahead as court rejects appeal |
| (18 days later) | |
| 9.41pm BST | |
| 21:41 | |
| Round-up of Friday's events | Round-up of Friday's events |
| Greece’s top court has overruled an appeal from two Greek citizens against the decision to hold a referendum on Greece’s latest bailout package, clearing the vote to go ahead on Sunday. | Greece’s top court has overruled an appeal from two Greek citizens against the decision to hold a referendum on Greece’s latest bailout package, clearing the vote to go ahead on Sunday. |
| Tens of thousands of people have gathered in Athens for two rallies, held by the yes and no camps. Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras addressed the latter, urging his supporters to express a “proud no to ultimatums and those who terrorise you”. He then tweeted that Greece will be sending a “message of democracy and dignity to Europe and the world”. Rallies showing solidarity with Greece’s anti-austerity movement are also being held in other European countries, including several German cities and Rome. | Tens of thousands of people have gathered in Athens for two rallies, held by the yes and no camps. Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras addressed the latter, urging his supporters to express a “proud no to ultimatums and those who terrorise you”. He then tweeted that Greece will be sending a “message of democracy and dignity to Europe and the world”. Rallies showing solidarity with Greece’s anti-austerity movement are also being held in other European countries, including several German cities and Rome. |
| Earlier on Friday, Tsipras said Thursday’s IMF report, which called for debt relief and a 20-year grace period, vindicated the Greek government. According to reports, the US pushed for the report to be published, against European resistance. | Earlier on Friday, Tsipras said Thursday’s IMF report, which called for debt relief and a 20-year grace period, vindicated the Greek government. According to reports, the US pushed for the report to be published, against European resistance. |
| European council president Donald Tusk has sought to calm the waters between Greece and its creditors by saying that Sunday’s referendum in Greece is not a vote on euro membership. | European council president Donald Tusk has sought to calm the waters between Greece and its creditors by saying that Sunday’s referendum in Greece is not a vote on euro membership. |
| It emerged that Greek banks have a buffer of €1bn – enough cash to last them until Monday, when the European Central Bank will decide whether to increase loans to Greek banks. | It emerged that Greek banks have a buffer of €1bn – enough cash to last them until Monday, when the European Central Bank will decide whether to increase loans to Greek banks. |
| The latest polling, just two days before the vote, puts the two camps almost neck and neck - “too close to call”, according to Ipsos. | The latest polling, just two days before the vote, puts the two camps almost neck and neck - “too close to call”, according to Ipsos. |
| Updated | |
| at 9.51pm BST | |
| 9.07pm BST | |
| 21:07 | |
| An Ipsos poll just released shows the referendum on a knife-edge. It has yes on 44% and no one point behind on 43%, with 12% still undecided. | An Ipsos poll just released shows the referendum on a knife-edge. It has yes on 44% and no one point behind on 43%, with 12% still undecided. |
| The number of undecided respondents underscores the significant potential for volatility, Ipsos said, describing the referendum as “too close to call”. | The number of undecided respondents underscores the significant potential for volatility, Ipsos said, describing the referendum as “too close to call”. |
| The poll is the fifth to be released on Friday, with the fourth also giving a narrow lead to the yes camp. | The poll is the fifth to be released on Friday, with the fourth also giving a narrow lead to the yes camp. |
| It also shows that, regardless of where they place their own support, more Greeks believe that the yes side will win than think victory will be handed to the no camp. | It also shows that, regardless of where they place their own support, more Greeks believe that the yes side will win than think victory will be handed to the no camp. |
| Updated | |
| at 9.51pm BST | |
| 9.00pm BST | |
| 21:00 | |
| A look at #Greferendum polls http://t.co/ub1yO4GnY3 - if vote interpreted as about austerity or future in eurozone likely to decide outcome | A look at #Greferendum polls http://t.co/ub1yO4GnY3 - if vote interpreted as about austerity or future in eurozone likely to decide outcome |
| 8.09pm BST | |
| 20:09 | |
| There are suggestions that the US pushed for the IMF report to be published this week, overcoming opposition from Europe. Here’s the Reuters exclusive: | There are suggestions that the US pushed for the IMF report to be published this week, overcoming opposition from Europe. Here’s the Reuters exclusive: |
| Eurozone countries tried in vain to stop the IMF publishing a gloomy analysis of Greece’s debt burden which the leftist government says vindicates its call to voters to reject bailout terms, sources familiar with the situation said on Friday. | Eurozone countries tried in vain to stop the IMF publishing a gloomy analysis of Greece’s debt burden which the leftist government says vindicates its call to voters to reject bailout terms, sources familiar with the situation said on Friday. |
| The document released in Washington on Thursday said Greece’s public finances will not be sustainable without substantial debt relief, possibly including write-offs by European partners of loans guaranteed by taxpayers. It also said Greece will need at least €50bn in additional aid over the next three years to keep itself afloat. | The document released in Washington on Thursday said Greece’s public finances will not be sustainable without substantial debt relief, possibly including write-offs by European partners of loans guaranteed by taxpayers. It also said Greece will need at least €50bn in additional aid over the next three years to keep itself afloat. |
| Publication of the draft Debt Sustainability Analysis laid bare a dispute between Brussels and the Washington-based global lender that has been simmering behind closed doors for months. | Publication of the draft Debt Sustainability Analysis laid bare a dispute between Brussels and the Washington-based global lender that has been simmering behind closed doors for months. |
| Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras cited the report in a televised appeal to voters on Friday to say ‘No’ to the proposed austerity terms, which have anyway expired since talks broke down and Athens defaulted on an IMF loan this week. | Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras cited the report in a televised appeal to voters on Friday to say ‘No’ to the proposed austerity terms, which have anyway expired since talks broke down and Athens defaulted on an IMF loan this week. |
| It was not clear whether an arcane IMF document would influence a cliffhanger poll in which Greece’s future in the euro zone is at stake with banks closed, cash withdrawals rationed and commerce seizing up. | It was not clear whether an arcane IMF document would influence a cliffhanger poll in which Greece’s future in the euro zone is at stake with banks closed, cash withdrawals rationed and commerce seizing up. |
| “Yesterday an event of major political importance happened,” Tsipras said. “The IMF published a report on Greece’s economy which is a great vindication for the Greek government as it confirms the obvious - that Greek debt is not sustainable.” | “Yesterday an event of major political importance happened,” Tsipras said. “The IMF published a report on Greece’s economy which is a great vindication for the Greek government as it confirms the obvious - that Greek debt is not sustainable.” |
| At a meeting on the International Monetary Fund’s board on Wednesday, European members questioned the timing of the report which IMF management proposed at short notice releasing three days before Sunday’s crucial referendum that may determine the country’s future in the euro zone, the sources said. | At a meeting on the International Monetary Fund’s board on Wednesday, European members questioned the timing of the report which IMF management proposed at short notice releasing three days before Sunday’s crucial referendum that may determine the country’s future in the euro zone, the sources said. |
| There was no vote but the Europeans were heavily outnumbered and the United States, the strongest voice in the IMF, was in favor of publication, the sources said. | There was no vote but the Europeans were heavily outnumbered and the United States, the strongest voice in the IMF, was in favor of publication, the sources said. |
| The Europeans were also concerned that the report could distract attention from a view they share with the IMF that the Tsipras government, in the five months since it was elected, has wrecked a fragile economy that was just starting to recover. | The Europeans were also concerned that the report could distract attention from a view they share with the IMF that the Tsipras government, in the five months since it was elected, has wrecked a fragile economy that was just starting to recover. |
| “It wasn’t an easy decision,” an IMF source involved in the debate over publication said. “We are not living in an ivory tower here. But the EU has to understand that not everything can be decided based on their own imperatives.” | “It wasn’t an easy decision,” an IMF source involved in the debate over publication said. “We are not living in an ivory tower here. But the EU has to understand that not everything can be decided based on their own imperatives.” |
| The board had considered all arguments, including the risk that the document would be politicized, but the prevailing view was that all the evidence and figures should be laid out transparently before the referendum. | The board had considered all arguments, including the risk that the document would be politicized, but the prevailing view was that all the evidence and figures should be laid out transparently before the referendum. |
| “Facts are stubborn. You can’t hide the facts because they may be exploited,” the IMF source said. | “Facts are stubborn. You can’t hide the facts because they may be exploited,” the IMF source said. |
| IMF spokeswoman Angela Gaviria declined to comment on this report. | IMF spokeswoman Angela Gaviria declined to comment on this report. |
| 8.01pm BST | |
| 20:01 | |
| There have been many instances over the course of history that the Greek people have rejected ultimatums. #Syntagma #Greferendum #OXI | There have been many instances over the course of history that the Greek people have rejected ultimatums. #Syntagma #Greferendum #OXI |
| 8.01pm BST | |
| 20:01 | |
| Not taking much risk on this #Greferendum prediction: on Sunday Athens will vote #oxi. The result depends on the rest of #Greece | Not taking much risk on this #Greferendum prediction: on Sunday Athens will vote #oxi. The result depends on the rest of #Greece |
| Unemployment in Greece is 25.5%. Youth unemployment rate is 50%. EU and IMF are arguing on how to measure debt sustainability. #Greferendum | Unemployment in Greece is 25.5%. Youth unemployment rate is 50%. EU and IMF are arguing on how to measure debt sustainability. #Greferendum |
| 7.56pm BST | |
| 19:56 | |
| Helena Smith says: | Helena Smith says: |
| The mayor of Athens George Kaminis has addressed the yes rally. He has delivered a withering critique of the government accusing it of lies and obsfucation. “They say they will reach a deal in 48 hours when no one is talking to them,” he has just told the crowd. | The mayor of Athens George Kaminis has addressed the yes rally. He has delivered a withering critique of the government accusing it of lies and obsfucation. “They say they will reach a deal in 48 hours when no one is talking to them,” he has just told the crowd. |
| Over at the no rally, prime minister Alexis Tsipras addressed ecstatic supporters. He kicked off his speech saying: | Over at the no rally, prime minister Alexis Tsipras addressed ecstatic supporters. He kicked off his speech saying: |
| “Today we are not protesting, today we are celebrating democracy, today we are celebrating the victory of democracy, whatever the result is on Monday. Today all of Europe has its eyes on you, the Greek people and on the three million impoverished Greeks. The whole planet has its eyes turned on Syntagma square in the place where democracy was born.” | “Today we are not protesting, today we are celebrating democracy, today we are celebrating the victory of democracy, whatever the result is on Monday. Today all of Europe has its eyes on you, the Greek people and on the three million impoverished Greeks. The whole planet has its eyes turned on Syntagma square in the place where democracy was born.” |
| The leftist firebrand then turned his fire on creditors. | The leftist firebrand then turned his fire on creditors. |
| “No one has the right to threaten to divide Europe,” he told the crowd. “We will tell them noon Sunday.” | “No one has the right to threaten to divide Europe,” he told the crowd. “We will tell them noon Sunday.” |
| Tellingly the prime minister’s speech was not relayed in its entirety by television channels. The media has not been shy about showing its political colours: they have avidly thrown their weight behind the yes vote. | Tellingly the prime minister’s speech was not relayed in its entirety by television channels. The media has not been shy about showing its political colours: they have avidly thrown their weight behind the yes vote. |
| Updated | |
| at 9.52pm BST | |
| 7.53pm BST | |
| 19:53 | |
| On Sunday, we'll be sending a message of #democracy and dignity to Europe and the world. #Greece #Syntagma #Greferendum #OXI #dimopsifisma | On Sunday, we'll be sending a message of #democracy and dignity to Europe and the world. #Greece #Syntagma #Greferendum #OXI #dimopsifisma |
| #Tsipras: whatever happens we're the winners #Greece | #Tsipras: whatever happens we're the winners #Greece |
| 7.49pm BST | |
| 19:49 | |
| He urged voters to express a “proud ‘No’ to ultimatums and those who terrorise you.” | He urged voters to express a “proud ‘No’ to ultimatums and those who terrorise you.” |
| That ends his short speech - and the concert restarts. | That ends his short speech - and the concert restarts. |
| Updated | |
| at 7.57pm BST | |
| 7.44pm BST | |
| 19:44 | |
| The Greek prime minister has told supporters that whatever happens over the weekend, this is a celebration of democracy. He said Greeks are determined to take matters into their own hands. | The Greek prime minister has told supporters that whatever happens over the weekend, this is a celebration of democracy. He said Greeks are determined to take matters into their own hands. |
| Sunday’s referendum is about staying in Europe, and deciding to live with dignity in Europe, he said. | Sunday’s referendum is about staying in Europe, and deciding to live with dignity in Europe, he said. |
| 7.37pm BST | |
| 19:37 | |
| Tsipras, dressed in a white shirt, has just walked up on stage and is waving to the crowd. | Tsipras, dressed in a white shirt, has just walked up on stage and is waving to the crowd. |
| Updated | |
| at 7.38pm BST | |
| 7.37pm BST | |
| 19:37 | |
| Helena Smith | Helena Smith |
| Helena Smith in Athens writes: | Helena Smith in Athens writes: |
| Sunday’s referendum has, almost overnight, turned into a fight for political survival for Syriza. The anti-austerity movement that took Europe by storm, when it was swept into power on the back of popular discontent in January, now faces an existential battle. “In Europe they want to squelch us because they only want one policy, the doctrine of neo-liberalism, to succeed,” the administrative reform minister Giorgos Katrougalos said earlier today. | Sunday’s referendum has, almost overnight, turned into a fight for political survival for Syriza. The anti-austerity movement that took Europe by storm, when it was swept into power on the back of popular discontent in January, now faces an existential battle. “In Europe they want to squelch us because they only want one policy, the doctrine of neo-liberalism, to succeed,” the administrative reform minister Giorgos Katrougalos said earlier today. |
| There is growing acceptance that prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ high-stakes gamble calling the referendum may well backfire. The “yes” vote has swelled in recent days as big name political and cultural figures have come out in support. If the outcome on Sunday is a massive turnout in support for the “yes” vote, it will augur political developments with Tsipras and his radical left Syriza party possibly even having to step down on Monday. If the vote is “no,” as the government has urged, Athens’ relationship will break down further. “They have made it clear Schauble, Merkel, and others that they don’t want to deal with us,” one minister told me requesting anonymity. “It is very difficult to say if we will be here on Monday. A lot is in Tsipras’ hands. Our biggest concern, now, is the division we are seeing [between the two camps] and how we are going to handle it.” | There is growing acceptance that prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ high-stakes gamble calling the referendum may well backfire. The “yes” vote has swelled in recent days as big name political and cultural figures have come out in support. If the outcome on Sunday is a massive turnout in support for the “yes” vote, it will augur political developments with Tsipras and his radical left Syriza party possibly even having to step down on Monday. If the vote is “no,” as the government has urged, Athens’ relationship will break down further. “They have made it clear Schauble, Merkel, and others that they don’t want to deal with us,” one minister told me requesting anonymity. “It is very difficult to say if we will be here on Monday. A lot is in Tsipras’ hands. Our biggest concern, now, is the division we are seeing [between the two camps] and how we are going to handle it.” |
| Speculation was rampant on Friday that in the event of a resounding ‘yes’ a national unity government might have to be formed after the referendum possibly led by technocrats or figures outside the political arena. Athens’ mayor George Kaminis, a professor of constitutional law and Yannis Boutaris, the mayor of Thessakoniki, are possibilities. | Speculation was rampant on Friday that in the event of a resounding ‘yes’ a national unity government might have to be formed after the referendum possibly led by technocrats or figures outside the political arena. Athens’ mayor George Kaminis, a professor of constitutional law and Yannis Boutaris, the mayor of Thessakoniki, are possibilities. |
| “It is very difficult to see a better agreement [emerging with creditors] in the event of a ‘no’ vote,” said the political commentator Alexis Papahelas. “A ‘yes’ vote is going to be difficult and the Europeans have made a lot of mistakes but it will at least keep us at the core of Europe.” | “It is very difficult to see a better agreement [emerging with creditors] in the event of a ‘no’ vote,” said the political commentator Alexis Papahelas. “A ‘yes’ vote is going to be difficult and the Europeans have made a lot of mistakes but it will at least keep us at the core of Europe.” |
| Updated | |
| at 8.33pm BST | |
| 7.35pm BST | |
| 19:35 | |
| #Greece: Tsipras arrives to No demo in Athens. https://t.co/xAyeNTmhpc | #Greece: Tsipras arrives to No demo in Athens. https://t.co/xAyeNTmhpc |
| I've stood on this roof a few times over the years - and this is as big a crowd as I can remember. #oxi #greece pic.twitter.com/1vzUlEd2FH | I've stood on this roof a few times over the years - and this is as big a crowd as I can remember. #oxi #greece pic.twitter.com/1vzUlEd2FH |
| These are people still inside the Metro station waiting to get out in the streets. Such crowded! pic.twitter.com/shWD5PbnzO | These are people still inside the Metro station waiting to get out in the streets. Such crowded! pic.twitter.com/shWD5PbnzO |
| 7.32pm BST | |
| 19:32 | |
| The ‘No’ rally has turned into a music festival, punctuated by cries of ‘Ochi’. Everyone is singing along now. | The ‘No’ rally has turned into a music festival, punctuated by cries of ‘Ochi’. Everyone is singing along now. |
| Updated | |
| at 7.33pm BST | |
| 7.22pm BST | |
| 19:22 | |
| Jon Henley | Jon Henley |
| More from Jon Henley in Athens: | More from Jon Henley in Athens: |
| Most people stressed they were not voting against the EU, or for a Grexit: “Just against this EU, said Malvina, 27, an engineering student. “We want the right Europe. One where all countries are equal, and treated with respect. I hope a No vote will give Tsipras a stronger position in the negotiations – that’s all.” | Most people stressed they were not voting against the EU, or for a Grexit: “Just against this EU, said Malvina, 27, an engineering student. “We want the right Europe. One where all countries are equal, and treated with respect. I hope a No vote will give Tsipras a stronger position in the negotiations – that’s all.” |
| But if Greece did end up quitting, said Christos Mellios, who owns a small plastics factory, “maybe it wouldn’t be such a bad thing. It would be good for all of Europe to change. I don’t think anyone actually likes this Europe, what Europe has become.” | But if Greece did end up quitting, said Christos Mellios, who owns a small plastics factory, “maybe it wouldn’t be such a bad thing. It would be good for all of Europe to change. I don’t think anyone actually likes this Europe, what Europe has become.” |
| His partner, Mania Epithimiades, said she had had “enough, five years of austerity, it’s enough. We’d like to have our dignity back, our pride and our freedom. And we’re not afraid.” | His partner, Mania Epithimiades, said she had had “enough, five years of austerity, it’s enough. We’d like to have our dignity back, our pride and our freedom. And we’re not afraid.” |
| Nick, a civil servant, and his partner Christina, doing a masters degree in informatics, also said their vote was intended to strengthen the leftist prime minister’s hand at whatever negotiations with Greece’s creditors follow the referendum. “They have to understand we won’t get out of this unless we get some debt relief,” said Nick. “And that we have the right to decide for ourselves, implement a different economic policy. They can’t just dictate the way we run our country.” | Nick, a civil servant, and his partner Christina, doing a masters degree in informatics, also said their vote was intended to strengthen the leftist prime minister’s hand at whatever negotiations with Greece’s creditors follow the referendum. “They have to understand we won’t get out of this unless we get some debt relief,” said Nick. “And that we have the right to decide for ourselves, implement a different economic policy. They can’t just dictate the way we run our country.” |
| Christina said her No vote would be “against the way Europe – some people, at the top of Europe – has handled this whole story. We hope our actions will set an example for the whole of Europe. | Christina said her No vote would be “against the way Europe – some people, at the top of Europe – has handled this whole story. We hope our actions will set an example for the whole of Europe. |
| 7.20pm BST | |
| 19:20 | |
| There is some union support in Germany for the Greek anti-austerity camp: | There is some union support in Germany for the Greek anti-austerity camp: |
| @JuliaKollewe German labor union for educators&academics in Hessen (Frankfurt's state) issue strong stmt 4 Greece NO https://t.co/4Cm1j9AKg6 | @JuliaKollewe German labor union for educators&academics in Hessen (Frankfurt's state) issue strong stmt 4 Greece NO https://t.co/4Cm1j9AKg6 |
| 7.17pm BST | |
| 19:17 | |
| Tsipras is making his way through the crowd at the ‘No’ rally. | Tsipras is making his way through the crowd at the ‘No’ rally. |
| 7.14pm BST | |
| 19:14 | |
| The Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has just emerged from his office - smiling in white shirt and slacks - and is about to walk to Syntagma (a ten-minute stroll) to address the crowd, Helena Smith reports. | The Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has just emerged from his office - smiling in white shirt and slacks - and is about to walk to Syntagma (a ten-minute stroll) to address the crowd, Helena Smith reports. |
| 7.10pm BST | |
| 19:10 | |
| Police are estimating both crowds at around 20,000 each, reports John Hooper from Athens. | Police are estimating both crowds at around 20,000 each, reports John Hooper from Athens. |
| Updated | |
| at 7.10pm BST | |
| 7.07pm BST | |
| 19:07 | |
| The comments come from an interview with Politico. You can read the interview in full here. The European Council president sought to lower the temperature on the Greek crisis, calling on Athens and its creditors to stop the mutual “blame game,” work to “rebuild trust” and quickly return to the negotiating table after Sunday’s referendum. | The comments come from an interview with Politico. You can read the interview in full here. The European Council president sought to lower the temperature on the Greek crisis, calling on Athens and its creditors to stop the mutual “blame game,” work to “rebuild trust” and quickly return to the negotiating table after Sunday’s referendum. |
| The main aim for us is to keep the eurozone united. | The main aim for us is to keep the eurozone united. |
| Tusk said the EU will work with Athens regardless of Sunday’s outcome, though | Tusk said the EU will work with Athens regardless of Sunday’s outcome, though |
| if the Greeks vote Yes, I think it’s a chance to open a new chapter in negotiations, perhaps more promising than before.” | if the Greeks vote Yes, I think it’s a chance to open a new chapter in negotiations, perhaps more promising than before.” |
| Updated | |
| at 7.24pm BST | |
| 7.01pm BST | |
| 19:01 | |
| More from Donald Tusk, courtesy of Reuters. Striking a conciliatory note, the European Council president said if Greeks vote ‘No’ to the bailout package there will be less room for negotiations but the aim remains to keep the eurozone united. | More from Donald Tusk, courtesy of Reuters. Striking a conciliatory note, the European Council president said if Greeks vote ‘No’ to the bailout package there will be less room for negotiations but the aim remains to keep the eurozone united. |
| He added: | He added: |
| Maybe we will have to get used to living with a country as a member of the eurozone in bankruptcy. | Maybe we will have to get used to living with a country as a member of the eurozone in bankruptcy. |
| 6.58pm BST | |
| 18:58 | |
| Jon Henley | Jon Henley |
| Jon Henley has spoken to protesters at the ‘No’ rally in Athens. | Jon Henley has spoken to protesters at the ‘No’ rally in Athens. |
| “I’m here to shout No at the top of my voice,” said Panos Stathopoulos, a recently retired dentist. “No to austerity, no to this European Union that seems to have no sentiment, nothing.” | “I’m here to shout No at the top of my voice,” said Panos Stathopoulos, a recently retired dentist. “No to austerity, no to this European Union that seems to have no sentiment, nothing.” |
| Sporting a red-and-white OXI sticker, Stathopoulos said after five years of austerity: “They know the situation very well, and still they keep trying to impose these measures on the weakest of us – I’m sorry for the founding fathers of the EU, I don’t think they ever envisaged a Europe like this.” | Sporting a red-and-white OXI sticker, Stathopoulos said after five years of austerity: “They know the situation very well, and still they keep trying to impose these measures on the weakest of us – I’m sorry for the founding fathers of the EU, I don’t think they ever envisaged a Europe like this.” |
| Friends and colleagues Eri, Constantina and Marta – all psychologists – said they had come because “we want to have hope.” They would vote No on Sunday because “we want to be able to express our own opinions, and to decide for ourselves, in our own country,” said Eri.“We want to have hope hope for ourselves, for our children and for our country. At the moment, we decide nothing. We suffer what others decide for us. They have to realise that can’t be right.” | Friends and colleagues Eri, Constantina and Marta – all psychologists – said they had come because “we want to have hope.” They would vote No on Sunday because “we want to be able to express our own opinions, and to decide for ourselves, in our own country,” said Eri.“We want to have hope hope for ourselves, for our children and for our country. At the moment, we decide nothing. We suffer what others decide for us. They have to realise that can’t be right.” |
| Updated | |
| at 7.02pm BST | |
| 6.57pm BST | |
| 18:57 | |
| News flash on Reuters: Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, says the Greek referendum is NOT a vote on whether the country should stay in the euro. | News flash on Reuters: Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, says the Greek referendum is NOT a vote on whether the country should stay in the euro. |
| 6.45pm BST | |
| 18:45 | |
| Helena Smith | Helena Smith |
| Meanwhile, crowds supporting the ‘No’ campaign are also swelling in Syntagama square, reports Helena Smith. | Meanwhile, crowds supporting the ‘No’ campaign are also swelling in Syntagama square, reports Helena Smith. |
| SKAI TV is showing demonstrators packed into the square and spilling out into surrounding streets. The cries of “Oxi” [No in Greek] have wafted from loud speakers all the way into Plaka, Athens’ old town, from where I write these lines. | SKAI TV is showing demonstrators packed into the square and spilling out into surrounding streets. The cries of “Oxi” [No in Greek] have wafted from loud speakers all the way into Plaka, Athens’ old town, from where I write these lines. |
| Anticipation is mounting ahead of prime minister Alexis Tsipras addressing the crowd at 9pm. Many are holding placards denouncing the “barbaric austerity” imposed on Greece at the behest of international creditors at the EU, ECB and IMF for the past five years. Some of the country’s most popular singers, musicians, composers and actors are in attendance and will host a concert after the rally in what the leftist-led government has defiantly called a ‘festival of the people.’ | Anticipation is mounting ahead of prime minister Alexis Tsipras addressing the crowd at 9pm. Many are holding placards denouncing the “barbaric austerity” imposed on Greece at the behest of international creditors at the EU, ECB and IMF for the past five years. Some of the country’s most popular singers, musicians, composers and actors are in attendance and will host a concert after the rally in what the leftist-led government has defiantly called a ‘festival of the people.’ |
| Tonight’s ‘yes’ and ‘no’ rallies depict in very dramatic form the dangerous divide now taking hold of Greece – between those who favour reform and see themselves as pro-European, pro-western and pro-modernisation and those who say the country can no longer bear any more of the self-defeating austerity that has brought so many to their knees. | Tonight’s ‘yes’ and ‘no’ rallies depict in very dramatic form the dangerous divide now taking hold of Greece – between those who favour reform and see themselves as pro-European, pro-western and pro-modernisation and those who say the country can no longer bear any more of the self-defeating austerity that has brought so many to their knees. |
| 6.33pm BST | |
| 18:33 | |
| Big crowds are waiting for Tsipras to speak, around 9pm local time (7pm London time). Live music first from various bands. You can watch the ‘No’ rally live here. | Big crowds are waiting for Tsipras to speak, around 9pm local time (7pm London time). Live music first from various bands. You can watch the ‘No’ rally live here. |
| Live-streaming of the pro-NO demo at #syntagma sq. PM Tsipras to speak there around 21.00 (EEST) http://t.co/qk4UeWFmkr #Greferendum | Live-streaming of the pro-NO demo at #syntagma sq. PM Tsipras to speak there around 21.00 (EEST) http://t.co/qk4UeWFmkr #Greferendum |
| Updated | |
| at 6.46pm BST | |
| 6.29pm BST | |
| 18:29 | |
| Huge crowd in #Athens at Olympic stadium for the Yes campaign #Grexit pic.twitter.com/senBEOX5cV | Huge crowd in #Athens at Olympic stadium for the Yes campaign #Grexit pic.twitter.com/senBEOX5cV |
| 6.27pm BST | |
| 18:27 | |
| Helena Smith | Helena Smith |
| Here’s more on the ‘Yes’ rally, from Helena Smith in Athens. Aerial views of the two huge rallies currently taking place in Athens are being projected from helicopters hired by local TV stations. | Here’s more on the ‘Yes’ rally, from Helena Smith in Athens. Aerial views of the two huge rallies currently taking place in Athens are being projected from helicopters hired by local TV stations. |
| Panoramic images relayed by Skai TV are showing a HUGE crowd of Yes voters gathered around Athens’ marble Kalimarmaro stadium. Many are holding Greek flags and placards proclaiming “yes to Greece, yes to the euro.” Some are also screaming “resign” “resign” at the leftist-led government. | Panoramic images relayed by Skai TV are showing a HUGE crowd of Yes voters gathered around Athens’ marble Kalimarmaro stadium. Many are holding Greek flags and placards proclaiming “yes to Greece, yes to the euro.” Some are also screaming “resign” “resign” at the leftist-led government. |
| The “yes” [NAI in Greek] campaign, which has won wide support from leading politicians in recent days (and is backed by nearly all of Greece’s big, business-owned media channels) argues that the country should be kept in the euro at any cost. | The “yes” [NAI in Greek] campaign, which has won wide support from leading politicians in recent days (and is backed by nearly all of Greece’s big, business-owned media channels) argues that the country should be kept in the euro at any cost. |
| Ironically, many Greeks who are no fans of the political opposition [backing the Yes campaign] and cast ballots in favour of prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza party in January, are now supporting the Yes campaign for fear that Athens’ relationship with Europe might otherwise be irreparably damaged. | Ironically, many Greeks who are no fans of the political opposition [backing the Yes campaign] and cast ballots in favour of prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza party in January, are now supporting the Yes campaign for fear that Athens’ relationship with Europe might otherwise be irreparably damaged. |
| “I will be voting yes with a heavy heart but there is no other way,” said Anna Papandreou in what has become a commonly expressed sentiment in recent days. | “I will be voting yes with a heavy heart but there is no other way,” said Anna Papandreou in what has become a commonly expressed sentiment in recent days. |
| 6.24pm BST | |
| 18:24 | |
| More rallies abroad... in Berlin | More rallies abroad... in Berlin |
| Viele leute fuers #oxi - many people in berlin #greecebailout pic.twitter.com/lDGQxuEaf8 | Viele leute fuers #oxi - many people in berlin #greecebailout pic.twitter.com/lDGQxuEaf8 |
| 6.23pm BST | |
| 18:23 | |
| Meet Kos, the Greek island Syrians risk all to reach, only to find money transfer is down - "Even in Syria it works" http://t.co/DjBJx8xBN0 | Meet Kos, the Greek island Syrians risk all to reach, only to find money transfer is down - "Even in Syria it works" http://t.co/DjBJx8xBN0 |
| 6.20pm BST | |
| 18:20 | |
| While media oligarchs refuse to show any #OXI demo, public @ErtSocial broadcasts live the #YES rally #Grefenderum pic.twitter.com/NzbenbRXDE | While media oligarchs refuse to show any #OXI demo, public @ErtSocial broadcasts live the #YES rally #Grefenderum pic.twitter.com/NzbenbRXDE |
| 6.19pm BST | |
| 18:19 | |
| And, finally, a pic from the ‘Yes’ rally in Athens... | And, finally, a pic from the ‘Yes’ rally in Athens... |
| YES rally in Athens pic.twitter.com/CuPoS30HDn | YES rally in Athens pic.twitter.com/CuPoS30HDn |
| An honest question: are there any pro-yes rallies abroad? #Greferendum #YesEurope | An honest question: are there any pro-yes rallies abroad? #Greferendum #YesEurope |
| Updated | |
| at 6.19pm BST | |
| 6.07pm BST | |
| 18:07 | |
| Interesting age breakdown. | Interesting age breakdown. |
| Age factor! "Yes" only holds the majority in people aged 55 and above. #GrRef pic.twitter.com/53qm5tcqnl | Age factor! "Yes" only holds the majority in people aged 55 and above. #GrRef pic.twitter.com/53qm5tcqnl |
| Crowd swelling at 'No' rally #Greece pic.twitter.com/UvvjkoiLiJ | Crowd swelling at 'No' rally #Greece pic.twitter.com/UvvjkoiLiJ |
| A journo supporter of NO compiles list of prominent figures voting YES, asking people "not to forget these names": pic.twitter.com/hpokk7LryC | A journo supporter of NO compiles list of prominent figures voting YES, asking people "not to forget these names": pic.twitter.com/hpokk7LryC |
| Updated | |
| at 6.18pm BST | |
| 6.06pm BST | |
| 18:06 | |
| Other rallies in Cologne and Frankfurt in Germany and Glasgow express sympathy with anti-austerity protesters in Greece. | Other rallies in Cologne and Frankfurt in Germany and Glasgow express sympathy with anti-austerity protesters in Greece. |
| "OXI means sovereignty, OXI means dignity, OXI means hope" pic.twitter.com/bbju2OMxN4 | "OXI means sovereignty, OXI means dignity, OXI means hope" pic.twitter.com/bbju2OMxN4 |
| #Cologne - #Glasgow - #Frankfurt - People of #Europe stand with #Greece #OXI #Greferendum #StopAusterity pic.twitter.com/s9pzQp5ch5 | #Cologne - #Glasgow - #Frankfurt - People of #Europe stand with #Greece #OXI #Greferendum #StopAusterity pic.twitter.com/s9pzQp5ch5 |
| 6.01pm BST | |
| 18:01 | |
| Meanwhile, US senators have written to IMF chief Christine Lagarde warning of the consequences for the fund if there is no satisfactory solution for Greece. | Meanwhile, US senators have written to IMF chief Christine Lagarde warning of the consequences for the fund if there is no satisfactory solution for Greece. |
| Letter from US Senators to @Lagarde warning consequences for IMF if unsatisfactory resolution in Greece: pic.twitter.com/DdbyP8Y2MC via @fcoin | Letter from US Senators to @Lagarde warning consequences for IMF if unsatisfactory resolution in Greece: pic.twitter.com/DdbyP8Y2MC via @fcoin |
| 5.53pm BST | |
| 17:53 | |
| Back to the protests... | Back to the protests... |
| Lots of chanting, big gap between helmeted chanting group and police pic.twitter.com/zEgh1Wtp70 | Lots of chanting, big gap between helmeted chanting group and police pic.twitter.com/zEgh1Wtp70 |
| 5.53pm BST | |
| 17:53 | |
| Potential costs of Greek default, calculated by RBS using official figures: | Potential costs of Greek default, calculated by RBS using official figures: |
| Potential costs of Greek default in a #Grexit scenario (€bn) - h/t @macrocredit pic.twitter.com/GCEHBj5sWW | Potential costs of Greek default in a #Grexit scenario (€bn) - h/t @macrocredit pic.twitter.com/GCEHBj5sWW |
| Updated | |
| at 5.54pm BST | |
| 5.50pm BST | |
| 17:50 | |
| This placard tells Germany’s finance minister to “go to hell”. | This placard tells Germany’s finance minister to “go to hell”. |
| Waiting for Alexis #NO #OXI #Greece #Greferendum #Grexit @BILD pic.twitter.com/pZfXCZpoJ1 | Waiting for Alexis #NO #OXI #Greece #Greferendum #Grexit @BILD pic.twitter.com/pZfXCZpoJ1 |
| 5.49pm BST | |
| 17:49 | |
| Looks like the protesters involved in scuffles with police are anarchists. Other reports suggest rally is peaceful. | Looks like the protesters involved in scuffles with police are anarchists. Other reports suggest rally is peaceful. |
| Peaceful crowd gather for NO vote rally - 200 metres away anarchists face off with police 6 tear gas canisters down pic.twitter.com/2mOybYfZlv | Peaceful crowd gather for NO vote rally - 200 metres away anarchists face off with police 6 tear gas canisters down pic.twitter.com/2mOybYfZlv |
| Live from #Syntagma pro 'NO' demo http://t.co/Ora6woIcTH #Greferendum #Greece pic.twitter.com/TopkNZPFgd | Live from #Syntagma pro 'NO' demo http://t.co/Ora6woIcTH #Greferendum #Greece pic.twitter.com/TopkNZPFgd |
| #ΝΑΙ #ΟΧΙ #Greferendum #Greece pic.twitter.com/DusutanPS4 | #ΝΑΙ #ΟΧΙ #Greferendum #Greece pic.twitter.com/DusutanPS4 |
| Updated | |
| at 6.13pm BST | |
| 5.45pm BST | |
| 17:45 | |
| Greek police throw stun grenades at 'No' rally in Athens | Greek police throw stun grenades at 'No' rally in Athens |
| Greek police threw stun grenades as they clashed with protesters at the ‘No’ rally, Reuters reports. The scuffles involved a few dozen people, many dressed in black and wearing helmets, but it appears things have calmed down. | Greek police threw stun grenades as they clashed with protesters at the ‘No’ rally, Reuters reports. The scuffles involved a few dozen people, many dressed in black and wearing helmets, but it appears things have calmed down. |
| 5.41pm BST | |
| 17:41 | |
| The ‘No’ rally in Syntagma Square in Athens has got under way. | The ‘No’ rally in Syntagma Square in Athens has got under way. |
| At the 'No' rally, Syntagma. Fair question ... #Greece pic.twitter.com/1UzEr9Lo9D | At the 'No' rally, Syntagma. Fair question ... #Greece pic.twitter.com/1UzEr9Lo9D |
| 5.30pm BST | |
| 17:30 | |
| Helena Smith | Helena Smith |
| Over in Athens, bankers contacted by the Guardian are expressing grave doubts that lenders will be fully functioning next week. Our correspondent Helena Smith reports | Over in Athens, bankers contacted by the Guardian are expressing grave doubts that lenders will be fully functioning next week. Our correspondent Helena Smith reports |
| There is almost no ATM in central Athens, as I write, that does not have a huddle of people, cards to the ready, in front of it. This is the beginning of what was meant to be another record year of tourist arrivals and many of those now lining up around cash dispensers are holidaymakers (or journalists as the very heart of the Greek capital has also been taken over by a media circus). | There is almost no ATM in central Athens, as I write, that does not have a huddle of people, cards to the ready, in front of it. This is the beginning of what was meant to be another record year of tourist arrivals and many of those now lining up around cash dispensers are holidaymakers (or journalists as the very heart of the Greek capital has also been taken over by a media circus). |
| And therein lies the problem: by Monday ATMs will have run out of the very cash Greece so badly needs precisely because demands far outstrips supply and stocks are running out fast. “I have very grave doubts as to whether banks will open on Tuesday and even if they do there will be no cash transactions,” one banker confided. “I have seen directors at the Bank of Greece in a state of panic because our liquidity buffer is being eaten up and without the [bailout] programme there’s no ELA [emergency liquidity assistance]. We are in a real mess.” | And therein lies the problem: by Monday ATMs will have run out of the very cash Greece so badly needs precisely because demands far outstrips supply and stocks are running out fast. “I have very grave doubts as to whether banks will open on Tuesday and even if they do there will be no cash transactions,” one banker confided. “I have seen directors at the Bank of Greece in a state of panic because our liquidity buffer is being eaten up and without the [bailout] programme there’s no ELA [emergency liquidity assistance]. We are in a real mess.” |
| With capital controls in place, many fear it could be months before they are fully lifted, with potentially devastating repercussions for the economy. | With capital controls in place, many fear it could be months before they are fully lifted, with potentially devastating repercussions for the economy. |
| “The situation is very serious,” the president of the national confederation of Hellenic Commerce Vasillis Korkidis told me earlier. “Now that they are in place capital controls may last for a year. The cap on cash withdrawals will probably be raised (from €60 per day) but other restrictions vould remain in place. We saw what happened to Cyprus where it took two years before controls were lifted.” | “The situation is very serious,” the president of the national confederation of Hellenic Commerce Vasillis Korkidis told me earlier. “Now that they are in place capital controls may last for a year. The cap on cash withdrawals will probably be raised (from €60 per day) but other restrictions vould remain in place. We saw what happened to Cyprus where it took two years before controls were lifted.” |
| As we reported earlier today the Greek finance minister himself said “paper money” had become a problem. | As we reported earlier today the Greek finance minister himself said “paper money” had become a problem. |
| If banks run out of cash before Sunday’s referendum it could have a devastating effect on the “no” vote, analysts say. | If banks run out of cash before Sunday’s referendum it could have a devastating effect on the “no” vote, analysts say. |
| “The site of ATMs running out of cash before Sunday would destroy the no vote,” said the prominent political commentatos Aristides Hatzis. “The “yes” would win with a landslide which is why the government is insisting and I think praying that everything will be OK at least until Monday.” | “The site of ATMs running out of cash before Sunday would destroy the no vote,” said the prominent political commentatos Aristides Hatzis. “The “yes” would win with a landslide which is why the government is insisting and I think praying that everything will be OK at least until Monday.” |
| 5.27pm BST | |
| 17:27 | |
| Greece’s top administrative court has rejected an appeal by two Greek citizens against Sunday’s referendum on the country’s bailout package, as just reported. A bit more detail, courtesy of Reuters: | Greece’s top administrative court has rejected an appeal by two Greek citizens against Sunday’s referendum on the country’s bailout package, as just reported. A bit more detail, courtesy of Reuters: |
| “Rejected,” said the presiding judge in Greece’s Council of State court Nikolaos Sakellariou. “The referendum will be held.” | “Rejected,” said the presiding judge in Greece’s Council of State court Nikolaos Sakellariou. “The referendum will be held.” |
| Pollsters say the vote is too close to call. | Pollsters say the vote is too close to call. |
| 5.22pm BST | |
| 17:22 | |
| The news has boosted the euro, which has risen to $1.107 within minutes, from $1.1094. | The news has boosted the euro, which has risen to $1.107 within minutes, from $1.1094. |
| 5.10pm BST | |
| 17:10 | |
| European stock markets have closed, ending the day slightly lower. | European stock markets have closed, ending the day slightly lower. |
| FTSE 100 index in London down 44.69 points, or 0.67%, at 6585.78 | FTSE 100 index in London down 44.69 points, or 0.67%, at 6585.78 |
| Dax in Frankfurt down 40.96 points, or 0.37%, at 11,058.39 | Dax in Frankfurt down 40.96 points, or 0.37%, at 11,058.39 |
| CAC in Paris down 27.34 points, or 0.57%, at 4808.22 | CAC in Paris down 27.34 points, or 0.57%, at 4808.22 |
| Ibex in Madrid down 66.60 points, or 0.6%, at 10,779.80 | Ibex in Madrid down 66.60 points, or 0.6%, at 10,779.80 |
| FTSE MiB in Milan down 108.37 points, or 0.48%, at 22,508.13 | FTSE MiB in Milan down 108.37 points, or 0.48%, at 22,508.13 |
| The Athens stock market has been closed all week. | The Athens stock market has been closed all week. |
| Updated | |
| at 5.13pm BST | |
| 5.06pm BST | |
| 17:06 | |
| Greece's top court clears vote to go ahead | Greece's top court clears vote to go ahead |
| Greece’s top administrative court has rejected the appeal to suspend Sunday’s referendum, Reuters reports, citing court officials. | Greece’s top administrative court has rejected the appeal to suspend Sunday’s referendum, Reuters reports, citing court officials. |
| Updated | |
| at 5.40pm BST | |
| 4.58pm BST | |
| 16:58 | |
| Another opinion poll, from the Proto Thema website, shows the ‘Yes’ camp at 41.7% while the ‘No’ camp is at 41.1% and 10.7% are undecided. The poll was conducted by Alco on behalf of the Proto Thema newspaper. | Another opinion poll, from the Proto Thema website, shows the ‘Yes’ camp at 41.7% while the ‘No’ camp is at 41.1% and 10.7% are undecided. The poll was conducted by Alco on behalf of the Proto Thema newspaper. |
| Updated | |
| at 5.20pm BST | |
| 4.56pm BST | |
| 16:56 | |
| We are still waiting for a decision from Greece’s top court on whether Sunday’s referendum is legal... and there are two big rallies scheduled for tonight, both in Syntagma Square in Athens. Prime minister Alexis Tsipras is set to speak at the ‘No’ rally. | We are still waiting for a decision from Greece’s top court on whether Sunday’s referendum is legal... and there are two big rallies scheduled for tonight, both in Syntagma Square in Athens. Prime minister Alexis Tsipras is set to speak at the ‘No’ rally. |
| And the stage is set ... for tonight's 'No' rally at Syntagma. Crowds (and kebab salesmen) gathering early #Greece pic.twitter.com/sUDh2Lp2JS | And the stage is set ... for tonight's 'No' rally at Syntagma. Crowds (and kebab salesmen) gathering early #Greece pic.twitter.com/sUDh2Lp2JS |
| Updated | |
| at 5.01pm BST | |
| 4.50pm BST | |
| 16:50 | |
| Greek official: ATMs filled with cash, €60 daily withdrawal limit unchanged | Greek official: ATMs filled with cash, €60 daily withdrawal limit unchanged |
| The €60 daily cash withdrawal limit remains unchanged, Reuters reported, citing officials following a meeting between banking officials and the government’s economics team. There had been suggestions that it might be reduced to €20 if banks run out of money. | The €60 daily cash withdrawal limit remains unchanged, Reuters reported, citing officials following a meeting between banking officials and the government’s economics team. There had been suggestions that it might be reduced to €20 if banks run out of money. |
| Yiannis Dragasakis, Greece’s deputy prime minister, said ATMs are fully supplied with cash ahead of the weekend. | Yiannis Dragasakis, Greece’s deputy prime minister, said ATMs are fully supplied with cash ahead of the weekend. |
| The special commission, comprised of officials from the Bank of Greece and the Hellenic Bank Association, will meet on Sunday night to organise a restart of the banking system from Tuesday. As already reported, the ECB will meet on Monday to review the Greek situation and depending on the central bank’s decision Greek authorities will decide which banking operations to restart. | The special commission, comprised of officials from the Bank of Greece and the Hellenic Bank Association, will meet on Sunday night to organise a restart of the banking system from Tuesday. As already reported, the ECB will meet on Monday to review the Greek situation and depending on the central bank’s decision Greek authorities will decide which banking operations to restart. |
| Updated | |
| at 4.54pm BST | |
| 4.41pm BST | |
| 16:41 | |
| ECB to discuss referendum and ELA for Greek banks on Monday | ECB to discuss referendum and ELA for Greek banks on Monday |
| The European Central Bank will hold a detailed discussion on the results of the Greek referendum and whether to extend emergency liquidity assistance to the country’s banks on Monday, said Austrian central banker Ewald Nowotny. | The European Central Bank will hold a detailed discussion on the results of the Greek referendum and whether to extend emergency liquidity assistance to the country’s banks on Monday, said Austrian central banker Ewald Nowotny. |
| He noted that the ECB had extended ELA loans this week but only until Monday when it will reassess its decision, Reuters reported. | He noted that the ECB had extended ELA loans this week but only until Monday when it will reassess its decision, Reuters reported. |
| He added that the cash reserves of Greek banks, if they open again on Monday, “will very much depend on the outcome of the referendum”. | He added that the cash reserves of Greek banks, if they open again on Monday, “will very much depend on the outcome of the referendum”. |
| 4.27pm BST | |
| 16:27 | |
| 100 researchers from the European University Institute have come out in support of the ‘No’ camp in Greece. The institute is an international postgraduate and post-doctoral teaching and research institute set up by European Union member states. The researchers say say a ‘no’ vote is a step towards a new Europe. | 100 researchers from the European University Institute have come out in support of the ‘No’ camp in Greece. The institute is an international postgraduate and post-doctoral teaching and research institute set up by European Union member states. The researchers say say a ‘no’ vote is a step towards a new Europe. |
| We, researchers of the European University Institute, feel the urge and the duty to express our full-hearted solidarity with the Greek people, who, for five years now, have been suffering the dramatic consequences of the austerity policies imposed by the Troika, and how are now struggling for the right to decide upon their own future. | We, researchers of the European University Institute, feel the urge and the duty to express our full-hearted solidarity with the Greek people, who, for five years now, have been suffering the dramatic consequences of the austerity policies imposed by the Troika, and how are now struggling for the right to decide upon their own future. |
| We defend the right of the Greek people to freely express its will, and we support a ‘NO’ vote in Sunday’s referendum in Greece... | We defend the right of the Greek people to freely express its will, and we support a ‘NO’ vote in Sunday’s referendum in Greece... |
| The choice, in Sunday’s referendum, is neither about the euro nor about the Greek government. It is a choice between austerity and democracy in the whole of the European Union. A choice between fear and hope. | The choice, in Sunday’s referendum, is neither about the euro nor about the Greek government. It is a choice between austerity and democracy in the whole of the European Union. A choice between fear and hope. |
| 4.16pm BST | |
| 16:16 | |
| Let’s look at what economists have to say about Greece and the odds of an exit from the eurozone. | Let’s look at what economists have to say about Greece and the odds of an exit from the eurozone. |
| Oxford Economics says: | Oxford Economics says: |
| Whatever the referendum outcome, the ECB is unlikely to significantly increase ELA [emergency liquidity assistance to Greek banks] limits any time soon. Cyprus was able to gradually loosen capital controls because of a decisive and credible commitment to reform. This is not possible in Greece. Our latest scenario analysis suggests an exit probability of around 67%. | Whatever the referendum outcome, the ECB is unlikely to significantly increase ELA [emergency liquidity assistance to Greek banks] limits any time soon. Cyprus was able to gradually loosen capital controls because of a decisive and credible commitment to reform. This is not possible in Greece. Our latest scenario analysis suggests an exit probability of around 67%. |
| Economists at Société Générale say: | Economists at Société Générale say: |
| A ‘Yes’ vote: a semi-stable outcome at best. | A ‘Yes’ vote: a semi-stable outcome at best. |
| A ‘Yes’ vote would allow negotiations to resume on the basis of the late June proposals. However, early elections or an unstable coalition would also follow a ‘Yes’ vote. And given the time and complexity entailed by a new programme, the third Greek bailout (worth between €60-80bn in our opinion) is unlikely to be approved before late August. As a result, Greece is set to default on its ECB debt repayments (both in July and August). Despite this however, the ECB will continue to provide liquidity to Greek banks as long as the line of communication remains open and at least until there is clarification on the political side. That being said, the ECB is likely to issue a statement requiring a programme to recapitalise Greek banks. The introduction of a parallel currency may be on the cards even with a ‘Yes’. Finally, even with a third bailout, the implementation risks remain high - creating a semi-stable outcome. | A ‘Yes’ vote would allow negotiations to resume on the basis of the late June proposals. However, early elections or an unstable coalition would also follow a ‘Yes’ vote. And given the time and complexity entailed by a new programme, the third Greek bailout (worth between €60-80bn in our opinion) is unlikely to be approved before late August. As a result, Greece is set to default on its ECB debt repayments (both in July and August). Despite this however, the ECB will continue to provide liquidity to Greek banks as long as the line of communication remains open and at least until there is clarification on the political side. That being said, the ECB is likely to issue a statement requiring a programme to recapitalise Greek banks. The introduction of a parallel currency may be on the cards even with a ‘Yes’. Finally, even with a third bailout, the implementation risks remain high - creating a semi-stable outcome. |
| A ‘No’ vote would significantly increase the odds of Grexit, though some hopes remain that it could be avoided. | A ‘No’ vote would significantly increase the odds of Grexit, though some hopes remain that it could be avoided. |
| A ‘No’ vote would not immediately trigger a Grexit, especially as the chance of new elections still remain, even in this scenario (as the Greek president would most likely resign). Moreover, some form of negotiation may resume. As long as the line of communication remains open and until the Eurogroup and EU leaders make it clear that Grexit is unavoidable, the ECB will maintain ELA funding - though potentially with increased collateral haircuts. Once the political backing is given by the EU leaders, the ECB would start unwinding the ELA funding, trying to implement a managed exit in coordination with the Central Bank of Greece. The EU is much better equipped to stem contagion today than in 2011-12, with a QE programme in place, the ESM facilities (the Secondary Market Purchase Programme in particular) and the OMT. Moreover, the direct financial costs are manageable - though Cyprus, already under a programme, is the weakest link. The political contagion is the most significant (though not immediate) risk. Limiting this risk will require further steps towards a genuine monetary, fiscal and political union. | A ‘No’ vote would not immediately trigger a Grexit, especially as the chance of new elections still remain, even in this scenario (as the Greek president would most likely resign). Moreover, some form of negotiation may resume. As long as the line of communication remains open and until the Eurogroup and EU leaders make it clear that Grexit is unavoidable, the ECB will maintain ELA funding - though potentially with increased collateral haircuts. Once the political backing is given by the EU leaders, the ECB would start unwinding the ELA funding, trying to implement a managed exit in coordination with the Central Bank of Greece. The EU is much better equipped to stem contagion today than in 2011-12, with a QE programme in place, the ESM facilities (the Secondary Market Purchase Programme in particular) and the OMT. Moreover, the direct financial costs are manageable - though Cyprus, already under a programme, is the weakest link. The political contagion is the most significant (though not immediate) risk. Limiting this risk will require further steps towards a genuine monetary, fiscal and political union. |
| The bank has also looked at the impact on financial markets. | The bank has also looked at the impact on financial markets. |
| Clearly, markets are more in wait-and-see mode than in outright panic. Nevertheless, we expect the referendum to set the tone for next week, but whatever the result, we believe the markets are willing to move on to other issues, and we expect credit markets to normalise following the summer period. | Clearly, markets are more in wait-and-see mode than in outright panic. Nevertheless, we expect the referendum to set the tone for next week, but whatever the result, we believe the markets are willing to move on to other issues, and we expect credit markets to normalise following the summer period. |
| 3.50pm BST | |
| 15:50 | |
| Both sides are equally to blame in letting the Greek debt crisis get to a point now fraught with immense political and economic risks for the entire eurozone, says Vicky Pryce, chief economic adviser at the Centre for Economic and Business Research. She is also the author of Greekonomics: The Euro Crisis and Why Politicians Don’t Get It. | Both sides are equally to blame in letting the Greek debt crisis get to a point now fraught with immense political and economic risks for the entire eurozone, says Vicky Pryce, chief economic adviser at the Centre for Economic and Business Research. She is also the author of Greekonomics: The Euro Crisis and Why Politicians Don’t Get It. |
| Asked by the Guardian how she would vote on Sunday, Pryce said: “The referendum should never have been held. But I would vote yes.” | Asked by the Guardian how she would vote on Sunday, Pryce said: “The referendum should never have been held. But I would vote yes.” |
| She continued: | She continued: |
| In truth the creditors’ offer to the Greeks differs little in terms of overall austerity to that asked for by the Greeks except on where some of the pain may fall and that hasn’t been explained to the Greeks. There has been too much austerity but a no vote would make things worse. It would almost certainly mean banks becoming insolvent, an exit from the euro and a much faster decline in economic activity with hyperinflation following as the drachma that is introduced instantly devalues.” | In truth the creditors’ offer to the Greeks differs little in terms of overall austerity to that asked for by the Greeks except on where some of the pain may fall and that hasn’t been explained to the Greeks. There has been too much austerity but a no vote would make things worse. It would almost certainly mean banks becoming insolvent, an exit from the euro and a much faster decline in economic activity with hyperinflation following as the drachma that is introduced instantly devalues.” |
| A yes vote would keep banks open and give mandate for a deal to be struck that recognises the new Greek realities and includes, as the IMF now says, restructuring of the debt which every economist knows is unsustainable. This would offer some light at the end of the tunnel. A no vote would make that almost impossible to accomplish and could plunge Greece into years of economic turmoil.” | A yes vote would keep banks open and give mandate for a deal to be struck that recognises the new Greek realities and includes, as the IMF now says, restructuring of the debt which every economist knows is unsustainable. This would offer some light at the end of the tunnel. A no vote would make that almost impossible to accomplish and could plunge Greece into years of economic turmoil.” |
| 3.47pm BST | |
| 15:47 | |
| Here in the UK, Caroline Lucas, Green party MP for Brighton, has written in the Independent: | Here in the UK, Caroline Lucas, Green party MP for Brighton, has written in the Independent: |
| The Troika’s intransigence on austerity amounts to nothing short of an attempted coup. A democratically elected Government is being backed in a corner by the servants of capital who are desperate to embarrass the Greek electorate for daring to question austerity. For those of us who believe in the EU as a body which should uphold human rights and value solidarity, this bullying is particularly repulsive. | The Troika’s intransigence on austerity amounts to nothing short of an attempted coup. A democratically elected Government is being backed in a corner by the servants of capital who are desperate to embarrass the Greek electorate for daring to question austerity. For those of us who believe in the EU as a body which should uphold human rights and value solidarity, this bullying is particularly repulsive. |
| 3.39pm BST | |
| 15:39 | |
| Greek banks have 'liquidity cushion' of €1bn – enough until Monday | Greek banks have 'liquidity cushion' of €1bn – enough until Monday |
| More from the head of Greece’s banking association: Greek banks have a “liquidity cushion” of €1bn but funds beyond Monday depend on the European Central Bank. Greek banks have been closed since Monday after bailout talks collapsed and a referendum was called. | More from the head of Greece’s banking association: Greek banks have a “liquidity cushion” of €1bn but funds beyond Monday depend on the European Central Bank. Greek banks have been closed since Monday after bailout talks collapsed and a referendum was called. |
| Louka Katseli told reporters, according to Reuters: | Louka Katseli told reporters, according to Reuters: |
| Liquidity is assured until Monday, thereafter it will depend on the ECB decision. | Liquidity is assured until Monday, thereafter it will depend on the ECB decision. |
| Updated | |
| at 4.07pm BST | |
| 3.31pm BST | |
| 15:31 | |
| A reader in the Netherlands has sent us this. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister and president of the Eurogroup, spoke after the Dutch cabinet meeting today with regard to Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis’ comments on a deal being in the offing. | A reader in the Netherlands has sent us this. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister and president of the Eurogroup, spoke after the Dutch cabinet meeting today with regard to Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis’ comments on a deal being in the offing. |
| According to Dutch newspaper de Volkskrant, Dijsselbloem described this as “completely incorrect” and said: “He [Varoufakis] made that up completely. No new proposals have been sent to Athens,” adding: “We are not near a solution.” | According to Dutch newspaper de Volkskrant, Dijsselbloem described this as “completely incorrect” and said: “He [Varoufakis] made that up completely. No new proposals have been sent to Athens,” adding: “We are not near a solution.” |
| Many thanks for the translation to our reader in The Hague, Rik Remeijn. | Many thanks for the translation to our reader in The Hague, Rik Remeijn. |
| Updated | |
| at 3.41pm BST | |
| 3.22pm BST | |
| 15:22 | |
| At least half a million Greeks are unable to vote in the referendum – unless they return to the country before Sunday’s poll. Under Greek law, people must travel home to where they are registered for voting. | At least half a million Greeks are unable to vote in the referendum – unless they return to the country before Sunday’s poll. Under Greek law, people must travel home to where they are registered for voting. |
| Since the 2007-08 financial crisis, 405,666 Greeks have left the country, according to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office. | Since the 2007-08 financial crisis, 405,666 Greeks have left the country, according to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office. |
| 3.18pm BST | |
| 15:18 | |
| The head of Greece’s bank association has just said that Greek banks have enough liquidity to see them through Monday morning, according to Reuters. After that, everything depends on the ECB. | The head of Greece’s bank association has just said that Greek banks have enough liquidity to see them through Monday morning, according to Reuters. After that, everything depends on the ECB. |
| Updated | |
| at 4.06pm BST | |
| 3.13pm BST | |
| 15:13 | |
| Latest opinion poll: 'no' vote slightly ahead | Latest opinion poll: 'no' vote slightly ahead |
| In his TV address, Tsipras also reiterated that Sunday’s referendum is not about Greece’s membership of the euro. | In his TV address, Tsipras also reiterated that Sunday’s referendum is not about Greece’s membership of the euro. |
| The latest opinion poll, from Greek newspaper Avgi, shows that Greeks remain divided. 43% would vote ‘no’, 42.5% ‘yes’, and 9% haven’t decided yet. | The latest opinion poll, from Greek newspaper Avgi, shows that Greeks remain divided. 43% would vote ‘no’, 42.5% ‘yes’, and 9% haven’t decided yet. |
| Updated | |
| at 4.30pm BST | |
| 3.07pm BST | |
| 15:07 | |
| Meanwhile, tabloid Bild has polled readers in its own Greece referendum. “Should we support Greece with further taxpayer billions?” was the loaded question it asked readers. | Meanwhile, tabloid Bild has polled readers in its own Greece referendum. “Should we support Greece with further taxpayer billions?” was the loaded question it asked readers. |
| Referring to the Greek referendum on Sunday, Bild said: | Referring to the Greek referendum on Sunday, Bild said: |
| We Germans should be asked whether we want to go on paying! | We Germans should be asked whether we want to go on paying! |
| Europe has been paying for bankrupt Greece for the last five years. Athens has received about €325bn in total. Germany’s share is about €88bn. | Europe has been paying for bankrupt Greece for the last five years. Athens has received about €325bn in total. Germany’s share is about €88bn. |
| Bild has asked Germans in Berlin how they would vote. Some would continue to support Greece to show solidarity, because ‘the country cannot help itself’. The majority, however, in the poll voted ‘no!’. | Bild has asked Germans in Berlin how they would vote. Some would continue to support Greece to show solidarity, because ‘the country cannot help itself’. The majority, however, in the poll voted ‘no!’. |
| 2.56pm BST | |
| 14:56 | |
| Staying with the German press for now… the liberal weekly Die Zeit has made an emotional appeal to Greece: “Stay with us!” | Staying with the German press for now… the liberal weekly Die Zeit has made an emotional appeal to Greece: “Stay with us!” |
| In an editorial available in German, Greek and English, Marc Brost writes: | In an editorial available in German, Greek and English, Marc Brost writes: |
| Dear Greece, you’re deciding about your country’s future. But it goes far beyond that. | Dear Greece, you’re deciding about your country’s future. But it goes far beyond that. |
| None of us has to make such a decision and we can be happy about that, because if Greeks are now voting, it is not only their own future that will be decided. You, dear Greeks, also will be making a decision about the fate of 500 million people in Europe. You will decide how things will be for all of us. | None of us has to make such a decision and we can be happy about that, because if Greeks are now voting, it is not only their own future that will be decided. You, dear Greeks, also will be making a decision about the fate of 500 million people in Europe. You will decide how things will be for all of us. |
| It is only fitting for this insidious and confusing crisis that everything now comes down to a seemingly simple yes or no by the Greek people, even though so many very painful decisions are involved. It is not yet clear whether there will even be a referendum at all. But, one way or another you, dear Greeks, must turn against the policies you voted for just five months ago. You must take the side of the creditor nations, even though you voted down their crisis policies in the parliamentary elections. You must come to terms with your creditors, even though many of you have the impression you have been betrayed in the past couple of years. That is a lot to ask. And yet, that is where our hope lies. | It is only fitting for this insidious and confusing crisis that everything now comes down to a seemingly simple yes or no by the Greek people, even though so many very painful decisions are involved. It is not yet clear whether there will even be a referendum at all. But, one way or another you, dear Greeks, must turn against the policies you voted for just five months ago. You must take the side of the creditor nations, even though you voted down their crisis policies in the parliamentary elections. You must come to terms with your creditors, even though many of you have the impression you have been betrayed in the past couple of years. That is a lot to ask. And yet, that is where our hope lies. |
| No one can tell you how you should vote; not a minister from abroad and certainly not a foreign newspaper. But a lot of people in Europe now have grown very concerned. | No one can tell you how you should vote; not a minister from abroad and certainly not a foreign newspaper. But a lot of people in Europe now have grown very concerned. |
| 2.51pm BST | |
| 14:51 | |
| Schäuble: won't start new bailout talks without agreement from Bundestag | Schäuble: won't start new bailout talks without agreement from Bundestag |
| Here are more comments from Wolfgang Schäuble, courtesy of German news agency dpa (translated by The Local news site). The German finance minister said there will be no quick release of bailout funds to Greece after the referendum on whether to accept its creditors’ terms on Sunday. Any new bailout would have to be negotiated “on a completely new basis and under toughened economic preconditions.” | Here are more comments from Wolfgang Schäuble, courtesy of German news agency dpa (translated by The Local news site). The German finance minister said there will be no quick release of bailout funds to Greece after the referendum on whether to accept its creditors’ terms on Sunday. Any new bailout would have to be negotiated “on a completely new basis and under toughened economic preconditions.” |
| He added that he would not be able to join other eurozone finance ministers in negotiations for a new bailout for Greece without the agreement of the Bundestag, the German parliament. | He added that he would not be able to join other eurozone finance ministers in negotiations for a new bailout for Greece without the agreement of the Bundestag, the German parliament. |
| Updated | |
| at 3.23pm BST | |
| 2.40pm BST | |
| 14:40 | |
| Tsipras: IMF report is 'great vindication' for Greek government | Tsipras: IMF report is 'great vindication' for Greek government |
| Tsipras said the IMF’s analysis showing Greece’s debt is unsustainable justifies his government’s decision to reject an aid package that offered no debt relief. | Tsipras said the IMF’s analysis showing Greece’s debt is unsustainable justifies his government’s decision to reject an aid package that offered no debt relief. |
| In a televised address to the nation ahead of Sunday’s referendum, the Greek prime minister urged Greeks to vote “oxi” (no) on the bailout package. | In a televised address to the nation ahead of Sunday’s referendum, the Greek prime minister urged Greeks to vote “oxi” (no) on the bailout package. |
| Yesterday an event of major political importance happened. The IMF published a report on Greece’s economy, which is a great vindication for the Greek government as it conforms the obvious – that Greek debt is not sustainable.” | Yesterday an event of major political importance happened. The IMF published a report on Greece’s economy, which is a great vindication for the Greek government as it conforms the obvious – that Greek debt is not sustainable.” |
| I urge you to say #OXI / NO to ultimatums, blackmail & fear. To say NO to being divided. #Greece #Greferendum #dimopsifisma | I urge you to say #OXI / NO to ultimatums, blackmail & fear. To say NO to being divided. #Greece #Greferendum #dimopsifisma |
| Tsipras requests 30% debt haircut and grace period of 20 years - as per IMF report | Tsipras requests 30% debt haircut and grace period of 20 years - as per IMF report |
| Updated | |
| at 2.42pm BST | |
| 2.16pm BST | |
| 14:16 | |
| Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has addressed the nation on Greek television. He said the latest IMF report confirms his government’s argument that its debt position is not sustainable. The report said the cash-strapped country needs up to €60bn (£42bn) of extra funds over the next three years and large-scale debt relief to give Greece some breathing space and get its economy back on track. | Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has addressed the nation on Greek television. He said the latest IMF report confirms his government’s argument that its debt position is not sustainable. The report said the cash-strapped country needs up to €60bn (£42bn) of extra funds over the next three years and large-scale debt relief to give Greece some breathing space and get its economy back on track. |
| Tsipras also called on Greeks to “calmly go to the polls” on Sunday. | Tsipras also called on Greeks to “calmly go to the polls” on Sunday. |
| Let us calmly go to the polls, & make our choice by weighing the arguments--not the slogans. #Greece #Greferendum #dimopsifisma #OXI | Let us calmly go to the polls, & make our choice by weighing the arguments--not the slogans. #Greece #Greferendum #dimopsifisma #OXI |
| Updated | |
| at 2.25pm BST | |
| 2.12pm BST | |
| 14:12 | |
| Grand Bretagne in Syntagma Sq suggests guests get assistance leaving the hotel this eve during the Yes demo pic.twitter.com/WdhkDEC5J1 | Grand Bretagne in Syntagma Sq suggests guests get assistance leaving the hotel this eve during the Yes demo pic.twitter.com/WdhkDEC5J1 |
| 2.04pm BST | |
| 14:04 | |
| Helena Smith | Helena Smith |
| Greek business leading are voicing growing concerns over capital controls, adds Helena Smith who reports that speculation is mounting that they could be enforced for much longer than a few weeks. She writes: | Greek business leading are voicing growing concerns over capital controls, adds Helena Smith who reports that speculation is mounting that they could be enforced for much longer than a few weeks. She writes: |
| In four short days capital controls have had a catastrophic effect. This week alone business leaders estimate that the measures have wrought €1.2bn worth of damage on an economy that has essentially come to a grinding halt. | In four short days capital controls have had a catastrophic effect. This week alone business leaders estimate that the measures have wrought €1.2bn worth of damage on an economy that has essentially come to a grinding halt. |
| “Imports, exports, factories, firms, transport, everything is frozen,” said Vasillis Korkidis, who heads the national Confederation of Hellenic Commerce. “The only sectors in demand are food and fuel.” | “Imports, exports, factories, firms, transport, everything is frozen,” said Vasillis Korkidis, who heads the national Confederation of Hellenic Commerce. “The only sectors in demand are food and fuel.” |
| “Even in the best case scenario it is going to take months to recover from the shock of closed banks and capital controls,” Korkidis told me. “We already estimate that the damage is around €1.2bn already which will almost certainly have to be added to any agreement [to balance budgets].” | “Even in the best case scenario it is going to take months to recover from the shock of closed banks and capital controls,” Korkidis told me. “We already estimate that the damage is around €1.2bn already which will almost certainly have to be added to any agreement [to balance budgets].” |
| Shortages have begun to appear with popular Cycladic island destinations further away from stock, being especially hit. Reports of shortages in medications and basics are said to be on the rise in Athens. | Shortages have begun to appear with popular Cycladic island destinations further away from stock, being especially hit. Reports of shortages in medications and basics are said to be on the rise in Athens. |
| Korkidis said committees had been established in all four of the country’s systemic banks to examine applications from companies that need to pay suppliers for food and medication. “But they won’t be doing that until after the referendum next week which means more shortages.” | Korkidis said committees had been established in all four of the country’s systemic banks to examine applications from companies that need to pay suppliers for food and medication. “But they won’t be doing that until after the referendum next week which means more shortages.” |
| Currently all bank transaction have been stopped because of controls. | Currently all bank transaction have been stopped because of controls. |
| Meanwhile, tourism, the engine of the Greek economy, has also taken a huge hit with an estimated 50,000 holidaymakers cancelling bookings every day. The Greek Tourism Confederation (SETE) announced that bookings were down by 40% in the last few days following the government’s decision to hold a referendum at what will shortly be the height of the tourist season. | Meanwhile, tourism, the engine of the Greek economy, has also taken a huge hit with an estimated 50,000 holidaymakers cancelling bookings every day. The Greek Tourism Confederation (SETE) announced that bookings were down by 40% in the last few days following the government’s decision to hold a referendum at what will shortly be the height of the tourist season. |
| 1.58pm BST | |
| 13:58 | |
| Yanis Varoufakis’ hopes of a quick deal do not seem to fit in with what the Germans think, it would seem. | Yanis Varoufakis’ hopes of a quick deal do not seem to fit in with what the Germans think, it would seem. |
| German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has been speaking to Bild: | German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has been speaking to Bild: |
| German FinMin Schäuble in Bild: Any new #Greece aid deal would take some time, needs 'new basis' | German FinMin Schäuble in Bild: Any new #Greece aid deal would take some time, needs 'new basis' |
| SCHAEUBLE TELLS BILD GREECE MUST DELIVER REFORMS TO GET AID | SCHAEUBLE TELLS BILD GREECE MUST DELIVER REFORMS TO GET AID |
| 1.18pm BST | |
| 13:18 | |
| Three out of four members of business group the Institute of Directors think it is likely Greece will be forced to leave the eurozone within the next twelve months. | Three out of four members of business group the Institute of Directors think it is likely Greece will be forced to leave the eurozone within the next twelve months. |
| In a new survey IoD members said the most probable outcome of Grexit would be “a messy default which negatively affects financial markets and creates pressure on other euro members.” This outcome was considered likely by nearly two-thirds of the business leaders surveyed, while 45% also thought there was a risk of widespread bank runs in other southern European countries. | In a new survey IoD members said the most probable outcome of Grexit would be “a messy default which negatively affects financial markets and creates pressure on other euro members.” This outcome was considered likely by nearly two-thirds of the business leaders surveyed, while 45% also thought there was a risk of widespread bank runs in other southern European countries. |
| Longer-term, 45% of members said there is a good chance that Grexit would be followed by other countries leaving the euro. | Longer-term, 45% of members said there is a good chance that Grexit would be followed by other countries leaving the euro. |
| Nearly half thought a Greek exit from the eurozone would have a negative impact on the UK. | Nearly half thought a Greek exit from the eurozone would have a negative impact on the UK. |
| 1.14pm BST | |
| 13:14 | |
| EFSF won't ask for immediate repayment of Greek loans | EFSF won't ask for immediate repayment of Greek loans |
| The European Financial Stability Facility - Greece’s biggest creditor - has decided not to request immediate repayment or its near €150bn of loans in the wake of the country’s decision not to make a €1.5bn payment to the IMF this week. | The European Financial Stability Facility - Greece’s biggest creditor - has decided not to request immediate repayment or its near €150bn of loans in the wake of the country’s decision not to make a €1.5bn payment to the IMF this week. |
| Nor did it waive its right to action, it said. Instead it opted for a Reservation of Rights on its loans to Greece. This basically means it keeps all its options open as a creditor as events unfold. | Nor did it waive its right to action, it said. Instead it opted for a Reservation of Rights on its loans to Greece. This basically means it keeps all its options open as a creditor as events unfold. |
| But it did say the non-payment to the IMF was “an event of default.” | But it did say the non-payment to the IMF was “an event of default.” |
| It said it would monitor the situation continuously. Chief executive Klaus Regling said: | It said it would monitor the situation continuously. Chief executive Klaus Regling said: |
| “The EFSF is Greece’s biggest creditor. This event of default is cause for deep concern. It breaks the commitment made by Greece to honour its financial obligations to all its creditors, and it opens the door to severe consequences for the Greek economy and the Greek people. The EFSF will closely coordinate with the euro area Member States, the European Commission, and the IMF on its future actions.” | “The EFSF is Greece’s biggest creditor. This event of default is cause for deep concern. It breaks the commitment made by Greece to honour its financial obligations to all its creditors, and it opens the door to severe consequences for the Greek economy and the Greek people. The EFSF will closely coordinate with the euro area Member States, the European Commission, and the IMF on its future actions.” |
| The EFSF loans concerned are €109.1 billion under the Master Financial Assistance Facility Agreement, €5.5 billion under the Bond Interest Facility Agreement and €30 billion under Private Sector Involvement Facility Agreement. | The EFSF loans concerned are €109.1 billion under the Master Financial Assistance Facility Agreement, €5.5 billion under the Bond Interest Facility Agreement and €30 billion under Private Sector Involvement Facility Agreement. |
| Updated | |
| at 1.39pm BST | |
| 1.05pm BST | |
| 13:05 | |
| Keeping Greece in the eurozone while easing its debt burden is correct and achieveable, according to Jeffrey D. Sachs, UN special advisor and author of The End of Poverty. | Keeping Greece in the eurozone while easing its debt burden is correct and achieveable, according to Jeffrey D. Sachs, UN special advisor and author of The End of Poverty. |
| In a new blogpost he sets out four stages to achieve this: | In a new blogpost he sets out four stages to achieve this: |
| First, I recommend that the Greek people give a resounding “No” to the creditors in the referendum on their demands this weekend. | First, I recommend that the Greek people give a resounding “No” to the creditors in the referendum on their demands this weekend. |
| Second, Greece should continue to withhold service on its external debts to official creditors in advance of a consensual debt restructuring later this year. Given its great depression, Greece should use its savings to pay pensioners, provide food relief, make crucial infrastructure repairs, and direct liquidity toward the banking system. | Second, Greece should continue to withhold service on its external debts to official creditors in advance of a consensual debt restructuring later this year. Given its great depression, Greece should use its savings to pay pensioners, provide food relief, make crucial infrastructure repairs, and direct liquidity toward the banking system. |
| Third, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras must use his persuasive powers to convince the public, in the style of US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, that the only thing they have to fear is fear itself. Specifically, the government should make clear to all Greeks that their euro deposits are safe; that the country will remain within the eurozone (despite the false claims by some members of the Eurogroup that a no vote means a Greek exit); and that its banks will reopen immediately after the referendum. | Third, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras must use his persuasive powers to convince the public, in the style of US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, that the only thing they have to fear is fear itself. Specifically, the government should make clear to all Greeks that their euro deposits are safe; that the country will remain within the eurozone (despite the false claims by some members of the Eurogroup that a no vote means a Greek exit); and that its banks will reopen immediately after the referendum. |
| Finally, Greece and Germany need to come to a rapprochement soon after the referendum and agree to a package of economic reforms and debt relief. No country – including Greece – should expect to be offered debt relief on a silver platter; relief must be earned and justified by real reforms that restore growth, to the benefit of both debtor and creditor. And yet, a corpse cannot carry out reforms. That is why debt relief and reforms must be offered together, not reforms “first” with some vague promises that debt relief will come in some unspecified amount at some unspecified time in the future (as some in Europe have said to Greece). | Finally, Greece and Germany need to come to a rapprochement soon after the referendum and agree to a package of economic reforms and debt relief. No country – including Greece – should expect to be offered debt relief on a silver platter; relief must be earned and justified by real reforms that restore growth, to the benefit of both debtor and creditor. And yet, a corpse cannot carry out reforms. That is why debt relief and reforms must be offered together, not reforms “first” with some vague promises that debt relief will come in some unspecified amount at some unspecified time in the future (as some in Europe have said to Greece). |
| Easing Greece’s debt burden while keeping the country within the eurozone is the correct and achievable path out of the crisis, and it can be accomplished easily through a mutual accord between Germany and Greece, to which the rest of Europe will subscribe. The result would be a win not only for those countries, but also for the world economy. | Easing Greece’s debt burden while keeping the country within the eurozone is the correct and achievable path out of the crisis, and it can be accomplished easily through a mutual accord between Germany and Greece, to which the rest of Europe will subscribe. The result would be a win not only for those countries, but also for the world economy. |
| And the piece seems to have some immediate support: | And the piece seems to have some immediate support: |
| A Way Out for Greece, by Jeff Sachs http://t.co/TZtsT8bSjH | A Way Out for Greece, by Jeff Sachs http://t.co/TZtsT8bSjH |
| 12.31pm BST | |
| 12:31 | |
| Greek defence minister's comments cause waves | Greek defence minister's comments cause waves |
| As if the chaos triggered by Sunday’s referendum was not enough, Greece’s defence minister Panos Kammenos has also caused waves with highly controversial remarks that the army can always “guarantee the country’s internal stability.” Our correspondent Helena Smith reports: | As if the chaos triggered by Sunday’s referendum was not enough, Greece’s defence minister Panos Kammenos has also caused waves with highly controversial remarks that the army can always “guarantee the country’s internal stability.” Our correspondent Helena Smith reports: |
| Much ado this morning in Greece over the defence minister’s oddly-timed assertion that the country’s armed forces have the role of not only securing external borders but internal security too. | Much ado this morning in Greece over the defence minister’s oddly-timed assertion that the country’s armed forces have the role of not only securing external borders but internal security too. |
| Kammenos, who also heads the nationalist, right wing Independent Greeks party, the government’s junior partner, felt fit to announce on Thursday (in the presence of prime minister Alexis Tsipras) that: | Kammenos, who also heads the nationalist, right wing Independent Greeks party, the government’s junior partner, felt fit to announce on Thursday (in the presence of prime minister Alexis Tsipras) that: |
| “The country’s armed forces guarantee stability internally, the defense of national sovereignty and the country’s territorial integrity [and] stability in relation with the country’s alliances.” | “The country’s armed forces guarantee stability internally, the defense of national sovereignty and the country’s territorial integrity [and] stability in relation with the country’s alliances.” |
| In a nation where memories of military rule have not been forgotten (barely 40 years have elapsed since the collapse of military dictatorship), many are now asking what was he trying to say? Was he perhaps alluding to a coup d’etat? | In a nation where memories of military rule have not been forgotten (barely 40 years have elapsed since the collapse of military dictatorship), many are now asking what was he trying to say? Was he perhaps alluding to a coup d’etat? |
| “This language is dangerous for democracy. It is an open threat against the rights and freedoms of the Greek people and of every citizen individually,” said Fofi Genimmatas who heads the socialist Pasok party. | “This language is dangerous for democracy. It is an open threat against the rights and freedoms of the Greek people and of every citizen individually,” said Fofi Genimmatas who heads the socialist Pasok party. |
| Speaking on Skai TV earlier, Athens’ mayor George Kaminis also expressed consternation. | Speaking on Skai TV earlier, Athens’ mayor George Kaminis also expressed consternation. |
| “What does this gentleman want to say – that he is preparing a coup d’etat?” he asked. “And if he saying that the forces of defence are ready to intervene in the event of internal unrest – what does that mean?” | “What does this gentleman want to say – that he is preparing a coup d’etat?” he asked. “And if he saying that the forces of defence are ready to intervene in the event of internal unrest – what does that mean?” |
| Only in “Soviet-type regimes” did the army ensure internal stability, said the main opposition shadow defense minister Kostas Tasoulas, adding that it was the role of the police to guarantee stability. | Only in “Soviet-type regimes” did the army ensure internal stability, said the main opposition shadow defense minister Kostas Tasoulas, adding that it was the role of the police to guarantee stability. |
| There was speculation today that with his remarks (remarks Tsipras appears to have given tacit support to) Kammenos was trying to show that the government was in full control of the army. | There was speculation today that with his remarks (remarks Tsipras appears to have given tacit support to) Kammenos was trying to show that the government was in full control of the army. |
| Updated | |
| at 12.36pm BST | |
| 12.14pm BST | |
| 12:14 | |
| Campaign group Global Justice is at the British Museum to show solidarity with Greece: | Campaign group Global Justice is at the British Museum to show solidarity with Greece: |
| We're at the British Museum this morning to say #OXI to looting! Solidarity with the people of Greece #ElginMarbles pic.twitter.com/YrjN5RlVDA | We're at the British Museum this morning to say #OXI to looting! Solidarity with the people of Greece #ElginMarbles pic.twitter.com/YrjN5RlVDA |
| The Global Justice release says: | The Global Justice release says: |
| Members of the campaign groups Global Justice Now and Jubilee Debt Campaign have this morning unfurled a banner at the ‘Elgin Marbles’ in the British Museum with the slogan “OXI No - No More Looting - Support Greece” | Members of the campaign groups Global Justice Now and Jubilee Debt Campaign have this morning unfurled a banner at the ‘Elgin Marbles’ in the British Museum with the slogan “OXI No - No More Looting - Support Greece” |
| Many see the statues as a symbol of how northern Europe ‘looted’ Greek wealth in the past, and protestors claim that the enormous international pressure being placed on Greece to institute austerity, privatisation and deregulation represents a similar looting today. | Many see the statues as a symbol of how northern Europe ‘looted’ Greek wealth in the past, and protestors claim that the enormous international pressure being placed on Greece to institute austerity, privatisation and deregulation represents a similar looting today. |
| 12.08pm BST | |
| 12:08 | |
| And now it seems Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras is about to make another TV statement. | And now it seems Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras is about to make another TV statement. |
| 12.07pm BST | |
| 12:07 | |
| We face difficulties whether yes or no vote - EC's Juncker | We face difficulties whether yes or no vote - EC's Juncker |
| EC president Jean-Claude Juncker has said Greece’s position will be weakened if the country votes no. My colleague Jennifer Rankin tweets: | EC president Jean-Claude Juncker has said Greece’s position will be weakened if the country votes no. My colleague Jennifer Rankin tweets: |
| No change in creditors' hardline. If the Greeks vote no, the Greek position is dramatically weakened, says Jean-Claude Juncker. | No change in creditors' hardline. If the Greeks vote no, the Greek position is dramatically weakened, says Jean-Claude Juncker. |
| Even if yes vote we will face difficult negotiations, says Juncker. | Even if yes vote we will face difficult negotiations, says Juncker. |
| Juncker was speaking at a press conference to mark the beginning of the Luxembourg presidency. | Juncker was speaking at a press conference to mark the beginning of the Luxembourg presidency. |
| Luxembourg’s prime minister Xavier Bettel said the Greek referendum was about whether Greece stayed in the eurozone or not. He said he wanted to run his presidency based on trust, adding (pointedly?): | Luxembourg’s prime minister Xavier Bettel said the Greek referendum was about whether Greece stayed in the eurozone or not. He said he wanted to run his presidency based on trust, adding (pointedly?): |
| I spent several days with Alexis Tsipras in Brussels and he never talked of a referendum, then he went home and called [one]. | I spent several days with Alexis Tsipras in Brussels and he never talked of a referendum, then he went home and called [one]. |
| 11.27am BST | |
| 11:27 | |
| European Central Bank member Ewald Nowotny has said the emergency liquidity assistance for Greek banks will last until Monday: | European Central Bank member Ewald Nowotny has said the emergency liquidity assistance for Greek banks will last until Monday: |
| ECB's Nowotny: Greek ELA Until Monday, To Discuss Further Steps On Monday - APA | ECB's Nowotny: Greek ELA Until Monday, To Discuss Further Steps On Monday - APA |
| 11.19am BST | |
| 11:19 | |
| Join our live Q&A on Greece | Join our live Q&A on Greece |
| Questions about the Greek crisis? Put them to two of our writers who have been following the situation closely, feature writer Jon Henley and financial editor Nils Pratley, at 1pm BST today. | Questions about the Greek crisis? Put them to two of our writers who have been following the situation closely, feature writer Jon Henley and financial editor Nils Pratley, at 1pm BST today. |
| Follow the link to post your questions for the live Q&A: | Follow the link to post your questions for the live Q&A: |
| Related: Greek debt crisis: live Q&A | Related: Greek debt crisis: live Q&A |
| Updated | |
| at 11.21am BST | |
| 11.13am BST | |
| 11:13 | |
| Here’s more on the comments from Greece’s deputy finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos, courtesy of the Kathimerini newspaper: | Here’s more on the comments from Greece’s deputy finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos, courtesy of the Kathimerini newspaper: |
| The Syriza-led government decided that a referendum was the only way forward as the proposal submitted by Greece’s international creditors before talks collapsed on Friday “would never have been ratified by Parliament and would have brought down the government,” Alternate Minister of International Economic Relations and chief negotiator Euclid Tsakalotos told Skai television on Friday morning. | The Syriza-led government decided that a referendum was the only way forward as the proposal submitted by Greece’s international creditors before talks collapsed on Friday “would never have been ratified by Parliament and would have brought down the government,” Alternate Minister of International Economic Relations and chief negotiator Euclid Tsakalotos told Skai television on Friday morning. |
| Tsakalotos said that the Greek economy needs a “shock of optimism” with the removal, once and for all, of fears that Greece could be ousted from the eurozone. | Tsakalotos said that the Greek economy needs a “shock of optimism” with the removal, once and for all, of fears that Greece could be ousted from the eurozone. |
| Syriza’s Tsakalotos says referendum was called to stave off government collapse | Syriza’s Tsakalotos says referendum was called to stave off government collapse |
| 11.07am BST | |
| 11:07 | |
| And a point that a no vote is a no against austerity, not against Europe: | And a point that a no vote is a no against austerity, not against Europe: |
| On voting no | On voting no |
| Personally and to most people here I have talked to, are are voting no against austerity measures that are unsustainable, not to get out either from the Euro or Europe. | Personally and to most people here I have talked to, are are voting no against austerity measures that are unsustainable, not to get out either from the Euro or Europe. |
| Simply because the European commission has threatened us with an exit doesn't mean we believe it's true or want it. | Simply because the European commission has threatened us with an exit doesn't mean we believe it's true or want it. |
| This narrative presented by the media that yes means Europe and no doesn't really is misleading and suspect. | This narrative presented by the media that yes means Europe and no doesn't really is misleading and suspect. |
| Even more importantly a lot of people have taken pains to make it clear to me that they don't necessarily trust or support the Taipras government. | Even more importantly a lot of people have taken pains to make it clear to me that they don't necessarily trust or support the Taipras government. |
| Nevertheless they have to vote no to unsustainable measures. Conversely my impression is that people that are voting yes are doing so out of fear for a grexit and are choosing what they think is the lesser of two evils. | Nevertheless they have to vote no to unsustainable measures. Conversely my impression is that people that are voting yes are doing so out of fear for a grexit and are choosing what they think is the lesser of two evils. |
| So please stop this false narrative that no voters want out of Europe or the Euro. It's grossly untrue. | So please stop this false narrative that no voters want out of Europe or the Euro. It's grossly untrue. |
| Sent via Guardian Witness | Sent via Guardian Witness |
| By Yiannis Retro | By Yiannis Retro |
| 2 July 2015, 18:12 | 2 July 2015, 18:12 |
| 11.06am BST | |
| 11:06 | |
| Some contributions received from our Guardian Witness call-out. | Some contributions received from our Guardian Witness call-out. |
| Things seem calm in Corfu: | Things seem calm in Corfu: |
| Just another wonderful day in paradise | Just another wonderful day in paradise |
| Tourists in Corfu seem completely unaware that anything unusual is happening in Greece. And why would they as the restaurants and bars are open and doing business as normal, as are the petrol stations and supermarkets which remain fully stocked with nobody panic buying. The ATMs are all working normally with no sign of any queues anywhere. The only place you see large gatherings of people are on the beaches, such as those in Ipsos which I visited today, and they are clearly not there for any political reason. | Tourists in Corfu seem completely unaware that anything unusual is happening in Greece. And why would they as the restaurants and bars are open and doing business as normal, as are the petrol stations and supermarkets which remain fully stocked with nobody panic buying. The ATMs are all working normally with no sign of any queues anywhere. The only place you see large gatherings of people are on the beaches, such as those in Ipsos which I visited today, and they are clearly not there for any political reason. |
| Sent via Guardian Witness | Sent via Guardian Witness |
| By ruffidea | By ruffidea |
| 2 July 2015, 18:22 | 2 July 2015, 18:22 |
| 11.02am BST | |
| 11:02 | |
| And an invitation to tonight’s Yes rally: | And an invitation to tonight’s Yes rally: |
| Updated | |
| at 11.03am BST | |
| 10.55am BST | |
| 10:55 | |
| Meanwhile a decision is due on whether the referendum can actually go ahead. Helena Smith reports: | Meanwhile a decision is due on whether the referendum can actually go ahead. Helena Smith reports: |
| Greece’s highest court, the Council of State has begun meeting in urgent session to consider the legality of Sunday’s referendum.. | Greece’s highest court, the Council of State has begun meeting in urgent session to consider the legality of Sunday’s referendum.. |
| At the request of the tribunal’s vice president, Nicholas Sakellariou, the Council of State has begun meeting to consider whether the referendum should be cancelled on constitutional grounds. The court, the highest legal body in the land, was convened after two individuals contested the plebiscite. | At the request of the tribunal’s vice president, Nicholas Sakellariou, the Council of State has begun meeting to consider whether the referendum should be cancelled on constitutional grounds. The court, the highest legal body in the land, was convened after two individuals contested the plebiscite. |
| Even if the court rules against the referendum’s legality there is some suggestion that with parliament having endorsed the plebiscite, it will still take place. | Even if the court rules against the referendum’s legality there is some suggestion that with parliament having endorsed the plebiscite, it will still take place. |
| 10.51am BST | |
| 10:51 | |
| Jon Henley | Jon Henley |
| Here’s a piece from Jon Henley on the costly referendum Greece can scarcely afford: | Here’s a piece from Jon Henley on the costly referendum Greece can scarcely afford: |
| Its banks closed and being drained steadily of cash, its economic and political crises worsening by the day, Greece is scrambling to organise a referendum on Sunday that it can ill afford. | Its banks closed and being drained steadily of cash, its economic and political crises worsening by the day, Greece is scrambling to organise a referendum on Sunday that it can ill afford. |
| The leftist Syriza-led government of Alexis Tsipras says the cost of distributing ballot papers and paying monitors will be around €20m (£14m), but the conservative opposition – citing finance ministry data – puts the final cost at closer to €120m. | The leftist Syriza-led government of Alexis Tsipras says the cost of distributing ballot papers and paying monitors will be around €20m (£14m), but the conservative opposition – citing finance ministry data – puts the final cost at closer to €120m. |
| The vote will also be expensive for Greece’s 10.5 million voters, many already hard pressed and all restricted since Monday to daily cash withdrawals of just €60. There is no postal or absentee voting: all who want to cast a ballot must return to the polling stations where they are registered, generally their home town. | The vote will also be expensive for Greece’s 10.5 million voters, many already hard pressed and all restricted since Monday to daily cash withdrawals of just €60. There is no postal or absentee voting: all who want to cast a ballot must return to the polling stations where they are registered, generally their home town. |
| The latest polls show the result on a knife edge. A survey published on Friday morning by the ALCO institute put the yes camp on 44.8%, against 43.4% for no, with 74% of respondents saying they wanted Greece to remain in the euro. | The latest polls show the result on a knife edge. A survey published on Friday morning by the ALCO institute put the yes camp on 44.8%, against 43.4% for no, with 74% of respondents saying they wanted Greece to remain in the euro. |
| The referendum, the country’s first since 1974, will use the same monitors and the same 19,000 polling stations as in the January general election that propelled Syriza and Tsipras to power. | The referendum, the country’s first since 1974, will use the same monitors and the same 19,000 polling stations as in the January general election that propelled Syriza and Tsipras to power. |
| In a bid to encourage a high turnout, the government has said all public transport in the greater Athens area will be free. For voters returning from abroad, Aegean Airways is also organising four extra return “referendum flights” from London and Brussels on Sunday and Monday. | In a bid to encourage a high turnout, the government has said all public transport in the greater Athens area will be free. For voters returning from abroad, Aegean Airways is also organising four extra return “referendum flights” from London and Brussels on Sunday and Monday. |
| Full story here: | Full story here: |
| Related: Greece scrambles to run referendum it cannot afford as polls on knife edge | Related: Greece scrambles to run referendum it cannot afford as polls on knife edge |
| Updated | |
| at 10.53am BST | |
| 10.49am BST | |
| 10:49 | |
| A temporary Grexit might be one way to help resolve the current crisis, allowing Greece to devalue the currency and become more competitive. That was the suggestion of Hans Werner Sinn of German economic research institute Ifo on BBC world service this morning. | A temporary Grexit might be one way to help resolve the current crisis, allowing Greece to devalue the currency and become more competitive. That was the suggestion of Hans Werner Sinn of German economic research institute Ifo on BBC world service this morning. |
| Ifo's Hans-Werner Sinn:Greek referendum no vote doesn't mean Greece has to leave euro;but Greeks might be better off out of euro temporarily | Ifo's Hans-Werner Sinn:Greek referendum no vote doesn't mean Greece has to leave euro;but Greeks might be better off out of euro temporarily |
| Ifo institute's Sinn suggests temporary grexit; says euro depreciation is only a third of what Greece needs to be more competitive | Ifo institute's Sinn suggests temporary grexit; says euro depreciation is only a third of what Greece needs to be more competitive |
| 10.41am BST | |
| 10:41 | |
| LADBROKES SAYS ODDS MOVING TOWARDS ‘YES’ IN GREEK REFERENDUM | LADBROKES SAYS ODDS MOVING TOWARDS ‘YES’ IN GREEK REFERENDUM |
| According to Ladbrokes, 65% of bets placed thus far on the Greek referendum have been for the 'Yes' vote #Greece | According to Ladbrokes, 65% of bets placed thus far on the Greek referendum have been for the 'Yes' vote #Greece |
| 10.39am BST | |
| 10:39 | |
| Talk about playing something down. | Talk about playing something down. |
| Germany’s economy minister Sigmar Gabriel has said the Greek crisis is “a relatively small problem in Europe.” | Germany’s economy minister Sigmar Gabriel has said the Greek crisis is “a relatively small problem in Europe.” |
| To be fair, he was speaking in the context of the Ukraine conflict.... | To be fair, he was speaking in the context of the Ukraine conflict.... |
| (Quote via Reuters) | (Quote via Reuters) |
| 10.34am BST | |
| 10:34 | |
| Helena Smith | Helena Smith |
| Over in Athens the spectre of bank cash reserves running dry is the cause of mounting concern in official and financial circles. Our correspondent Helena Smith reports: | Over in Athens the spectre of bank cash reserves running dry is the cause of mounting concern in official and financial circles. Our correspondent Helena Smith reports: |
| Is Greece heading towards a banking crisis? That is the question on the lips of government officials and senior financiers barely four days after banks were closed and capital controls imposed. | Is Greece heading towards a banking crisis? That is the question on the lips of government officials and senior financiers barely four days after banks were closed and capital controls imposed. |
| In another interview this morning with an Athenian radio station, the Greek finance minister appeared to acknowledge those concerns saying: | In another interview this morning with an Athenian radio station, the Greek finance minister appeared to acknowledge those concerns saying: |
| “Until Monday there will not be a problem at ATM’s.” | “Until Monday there will not be a problem at ATM’s.” |
| (NB: Earlier on RTE radio in Ireland he said banks would re-open on Tuesday) | (NB: Earlier on RTE radio in Ireland he said banks would re-open on Tuesday) |
| Asked if the leftist-led government would be able to pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month he retorted: “This week is problematic but it is an investment in a viable agreement. The state will be able to pay [wages and pensions] because on Monday we will have an agreement, one way or another. What is important is that revenues haven’t collapse. The problem is paper money.” | Asked if the leftist-led government would be able to pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month he retorted: “This week is problematic but it is an investment in a viable agreement. The state will be able to pay [wages and pensions] because on Monday we will have an agreement, one way or another. What is important is that revenues haven’t collapse. The problem is paper money.” |
| That chimes with what business leaders have been saying for some days now: that by Monday lenders will have run out of cash supplies to ensure that ATMs are replenished. | That chimes with what business leaders have been saying for some days now: that by Monday lenders will have run out of cash supplies to ensure that ATMs are replenished. |
| Reports all around Athens that there are no more 20 euro bills left in the ATMs. | Reports all around Athens that there are no more 20 euro bills left in the ATMs. |
| Claims that a deal will be reached with creditors by Monday “one way or another” have been met with disbelief with the Syriza-led administration looking ever more chaotic in its handling of the situation. | Claims that a deal will be reached with creditors by Monday “one way or another” have been met with disbelief with the Syriza-led administration looking ever more chaotic in its handling of the situation. |
| Prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ pledge last night that he would personally fly off to Brussels so that an accord is signed “within 48 hours” of the referendum – “whether the result is a ‘yes’ which would be for a solution that is unviable or a no that will strengthen our hand” – has added to the sense of growing confusion. | Prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ pledge last night that he would personally fly off to Brussels so that an accord is signed “within 48 hours” of the referendum – “whether the result is a ‘yes’ which would be for a solution that is unviable or a no that will strengthen our hand” – has added to the sense of growing confusion. |
| 10.32am BST | |
| 10:32 | |
| Eurozone retail sales for May have come in slightly better than expected, up 0.2% month on month compared to estimates of a 0.1% rise. The year on year rise was 2.4% compared to a 2.3% forecast. | Eurozone retail sales for May have come in slightly better than expected, up 0.2% month on month compared to estimates of a 0.1% rise. The year on year rise was 2.4% compared to a 2.3% forecast. |
| Eurozone retail sales up 0.2% in May after 0.7% increase in April. Suggests consumers are still contributing to improved Eurozone growth | Eurozone retail sales up 0.2% in May after 0.7% increase in April. Suggests consumers are still contributing to improved Eurozone growth |
| 10.08am BST | |
| 10:08 | |
| Jennifer Rankin | Jennifer Rankin |
| Here’s our report on the latest developments: | Here’s our report on the latest developments: |
| Greece’s highest administrative court will rule on whether the country’s bailout referendum violates the constitution, amid growing concern that the hastily organised vote falls short of democratic standards. | Greece’s highest administrative court will rule on whether the country’s bailout referendum violates the constitution, amid growing concern that the hastily organised vote falls short of democratic standards. |
| With less than 48 hours until polling day on Sunday, the yes and no sides will stage large rallies in Athens on Friday evening. The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, is expected to turn out at the no rally, having attacked his eurozone partners for trying to “blackmail” his country into accepting a bad deal. | With less than 48 hours until polling day on Sunday, the yes and no sides will stage large rallies in Athens on Friday evening. The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, is expected to turn out at the no rally, having attacked his eurozone partners for trying to “blackmail” his country into accepting a bad deal. |
| Greeks are being asked whether to support an EU bailout deal that would grant the debt-stricken country money in exchange for spending cuts and further reform. | Greeks are being asked whether to support an EU bailout deal that would grant the debt-stricken country money in exchange for spending cuts and further reform. |
| However, the bailout plan no longer exists, having lapsed on 30 June. Eurozone leaders have lined up to say that voting no means saying goodbye to Greece’s eurozone membership, but Greece’s radical left Syriza-led government insists a no vote would simply boost its negotiating hand. | However, the bailout plan no longer exists, having lapsed on 30 June. Eurozone leaders have lined up to say that voting no means saying goodbye to Greece’s eurozone membership, but Greece’s radical left Syriza-led government insists a no vote would simply boost its negotiating hand. |
| Later on Friday, the Council of State will determine whether the vote violates Greece’s constitution, which bans referendums on fiscal policy. | Later on Friday, the Council of State will determine whether the vote violates Greece’s constitution, which bans referendums on fiscal policy. |
| Full story here: | Full story here: |
| Related: Greece's highest court to rule on legality of referendum | Related: Greece's highest court to rule on legality of referendum |
| 10.04am BST | |
| 10:04 | |
| Following the earlier report that Greece’s deputy finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos said the government chose a referendum because an agreement would not be passed by parliament, the man himself has tweeted to clarify: | Following the earlier report that Greece’s deputy finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos said the government chose a referendum because an agreement would not be passed by parliament, the man himself has tweeted to clarify: |
| Αρκετά με τη διαστρέβλωση. Αυτό που είπα στον ΣΚΑΪ είναι ότι η πρόταση των θεσμών δεν θα περνούσε από τη Βουλή, όχι η δική μας. | Αρκετά με τη διαστρέβλωση. Αυτό που είπα στον ΣΚΑΪ είναι ότι η πρόταση των θεσμών δεν θα περνούσε από τη Βουλή, όχι η δική μας. |
| Which seems to translate to: | Which seems to translate to: |
| Enough with the distortion. What I said on SKAI is that the proposal of institutions will not be passed by the House, not ours. | Enough with the distortion. What I said on SKAI is that the proposal of institutions will not be passed by the House, not ours. |
| 9.37am BST | |
| 09:37 | |
| Faster UK services & construction growth has offset a manufacturing slowdown in Jun. Producers hit by strong GBP #PMI pic.twitter.com/fpr50u6uwP | Faster UK services & construction growth has offset a manufacturing slowdown in Jun. Producers hit by strong GBP #PMI pic.twitter.com/fpr50u6uwP |
| 9.34am BST | |
| 09:34 | |
| And here’s the UK services PMI, which showed the sector growing by more than expected: | And here’s the UK services PMI, which showed the sector growing by more than expected: |
| [BREAKING] UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (Jun) 58.5 vs 56.5 prior (Est. 57.5) | [BREAKING] UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (Jun) 58.5 vs 56.5 prior (Est. 57.5) |
| 9.16am BST | |
| 09:16 | |
| Here’s a roundup of the day’s PMI data so far, and it’s all relatively positive. | Here’s a roundup of the day’s PMI data so far, and it’s all relatively positive. |
| The eurozone composite PMI: | The eurozone composite PMI: |
| Eurozone economic growth and job creation at four-year highs in second quarter http://t.co/GTN93UoxQd http://t.co/EIg0C7tLWF | Eurozone economic growth and job creation at four-year highs in second quarter http://t.co/GTN93UoxQd http://t.co/EIg0C7tLWF |
| Eurozone services PMI: | Eurozone services PMI: |
| #Eurozone service sector PMI for June is confirmed at 54.4, the composite is revised up a touch to 54.2 from 54.1 initially ^KB | #Eurozone service sector PMI for June is confirmed at 54.4, the composite is revised up a touch to 54.2 from 54.1 initially ^KB |
| Ireland’s service sector: | Ireland’s service sector: |
| Strongest rise in Irish service sector activity since September 2006 http://t.co/s2Nif8LdWa | Strongest rise in Irish service sector activity since September 2006 http://t.co/s2Nif8LdWa |
| Italy: | Italy: |
| Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI Jun: 53.4 (est 52.3; prev 52.5) -Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI Jun: 54.0 (est 53.3; prev 53.7) $EURUSD | Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI Jun: 53.4 (est 52.3; prev 52.5) -Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI Jun: 54.0 (est 53.3; prev 53.7) $EURUSD |
| France: | France: |
| French Service Sector Activity Growth Accelerates To 46-Month High In June $EURUSD http://t.co/PcvgKKrGXm | French Service Sector Activity Growth Accelerates To 46-Month High In June $EURUSD http://t.co/PcvgKKrGXm |
| Spain: | Spain: |
| Spain's Business Activity Index at 56.1 in June, down from May’s 58.4 #PMI http://t.co/NzmHxnpcRO | Spain's Business Activity Index at 56.1 in June, down from May’s 58.4 #PMI http://t.co/NzmHxnpcRO |
| Spanish Services Activity Growth Moderates, Remains Sharp At End-Q2 $EURUSD http://t.co/rcSbqSSoBR | Spanish Services Activity Growth Moderates, Remains Sharp At End-Q2 $EURUSD http://t.co/rcSbqSSoBR |
| #Spain composite #PMI 55.8 in June (58.3 May). Signals c0.75% GDP growth in Q2 http://t.co/9Z6OwnTi6y pic.twitter.com/xraRihhw76 | #Spain composite #PMI 55.8 in June (58.3 May). Signals c0.75% GDP growth in Q2 http://t.co/9Z6OwnTi6y pic.twitter.com/xraRihhw76 |
| Germany: | Germany: |
| Final Germany Services Business Activity Index at 53.8 in June, up from 53.0 in May. Composite Output Index at 53.7 http://t.co/QsZgFL31cV | Final Germany Services Business Activity Index at 53.8 in June, up from 53.0 in May. Composite Output Index at 53.7 http://t.co/QsZgFL31cV |
| And from earlier, China: | And from earlier, China: |
| #China Services Business Activity Index at 51.8 in Jun down from May’s eight-month high of 53.5. Composite at 50.6 http://t.co/YCZiNBPEJp | #China Services Business Activity Index at 51.8 in Jun down from May’s eight-month high of 53.5. Composite at 50.6 http://t.co/YCZiNBPEJp |
| 9.14am BST | |
| 09:14 | |
| Here’s an idea of the timings for Sunday’s referendum: | Here’s an idea of the timings for Sunday’s referendum: |
| #Greferendum – Sunday’s Timetable (BST): 0500 - Polls open 1700BST - Polls close Shortly after 1700BST - 1st exit poll (1/2) | #Greferendum – Sunday’s Timetable (BST): 0500 - Polls open 1700BST - Polls close Shortly after 1700BST - 1st exit poll (1/2) |
| #Greferendum – Sunday’s Timetable (BST): 1900 ~ 20% of votes counted 2100 ~50% counted 2200 ~70% counted 0000 ~90% counted (2/2) | #Greferendum – Sunday’s Timetable (BST): 1900 ~ 20% of votes counted 2100 ~50% counted 2200 ~70% counted 0000 ~90% counted (2/2) |
| That’s if the Council of State doesn’t rule against it of course. A decision is expected by this evening. | That’s if the Council of State doesn’t rule against it of course. A decision is expected by this evening. |
| 9.03am BST | |
| 09:03 | |
| Greece’s deputy finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos has reportedly said that the government chose a referendum because an agreement would not be passed by parliament: | Greece’s deputy finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos has reportedly said that the government chose a referendum because an agreement would not be passed by parliament: |
| #Greece Tsakalotos admitted on SKAI tv that govt chose a refer so as to stay in power coz an agreement wouldnt pass in Parliament | #Greece Tsakalotos admitted on SKAI tv that govt chose a refer so as to stay in power coz an agreement wouldnt pass in Parliament |
| Story here (in Greek). | Story here (in Greek). |
| 9.01am BST | |
| 09:01 | |
| More on tonight’s rallies: | More on tonight’s rallies: |
| 3 demos in Athens tonight: pro-NO at #syntagma, pro-YES at Kallimarmaro stadium, communist PAME at Omonia sq. #Greferendum #Greececrisis | 3 demos in Athens tonight: pro-NO at #syntagma, pro-YES at Kallimarmaro stadium, communist PAME at Omonia sq. #Greferendum #Greececrisis |
| 8.47am BST | |
| 08:47 | |
| Speaking of polls (but not the Greek referendum this time): | Speaking of polls (but not the Greek referendum this time): |
| 68% of Germans think Syriza is to blame for the crisis; 4% the EU. Post-referendum, this isn't going to get easier. pic.twitter.com/Xam3XGIkwR | 68% of Germans think Syriza is to blame for the crisis; 4% the EU. Post-referendum, this isn't going to get easier. pic.twitter.com/Xam3XGIkwR |
| 8.46am BST | |
| 08:46 | |
| Meanwhile UBS has looked at the chances of Greece leaving the eurozone, depending on the result of the referendum: | Meanwhile UBS has looked at the chances of Greece leaving the eurozone, depending on the result of the referendum: |
| UBS sees overall #Grexit probability at 40%. Sees probability in the event of a Yes at 20% and No (70%) vote, alike. pic.twitter.com/4yyQoMgqcO | UBS sees overall #Grexit probability at 40%. Sees probability in the event of a Yes at 20% and No (70%) vote, alike. pic.twitter.com/4yyQoMgqcO |
| 8.44am BST | |
| 08:44 | |
| Varoufakis: "No" vote = debt relief deal "Yes" vote = June 26 deal Neither of these options, he omits to mention, are currently on offer | Varoufakis: "No" vote = debt relief deal "Yes" vote = June 26 deal Neither of these options, he omits to mention, are currently on offer |
| 8.41am BST | |
| 08:41 | |
| Varoufakis said that even if the yes side won, it would be “a narrow victory” and Syriza would still be the only party capable of running the country. | Varoufakis said that even if the yes side won, it would be “a narrow victory” and Syriza would still be the only party capable of running the country. |
| He admitted the Greek government had made mistakes: “It would be arrogant to day we hadn’t - we’re not professionals at this.” | He admitted the Greek government had made mistakes: “It would be arrogant to day we hadn’t - we’re not professionals at this.” |
| 8.39am BST | |
| 08:39 | |
| Deal more or less done - Varoufakis | Deal more or less done - Varoufakis |
| Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has said that whatever the outcome of the referendum a deal is almost done, and there have been private discussions with the ECB and EU during the week. | Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has said that whatever the outcome of the referendum a deal is almost done, and there have been private discussions with the ECB and EU during the week. |
| Speaking on RTE radio in Ireland he said a deal was “in the offing,” | Speaking on RTE radio in Ireland he said a deal was “in the offing,” |
| If the vote was yes, the Greek government would sign on the dotted line. | If the vote was yes, the Greek government would sign on the dotted line. |
| If no, they had had some decent proposals from Europe in confidence. | If no, they had had some decent proposals from Europe in confidence. |
| 8.15am BST | |
| 08:15 | |
| Referendum question not legally correct - EC's Dombrovskis | Referendum question not legally correct - EC's Dombrovskis |
| Greeks are being asked a question in the referendum which is not factually or legally correct, according to European Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis has said. | Greeks are being asked a question in the referendum which is not factually or legally correct, according to European Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis has said. |
| In an interview with Die Welt, he said: | In an interview with Die Welt, he said: |
| The referendum question is neither factually nor legally correct. | The referendum question is neither factually nor legally correct. |
| The proposals of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, which are to be voted on are based on a now expired credit program. The Euro Group has not accepted or declined. They do not correspond to the final state of negotiations - as Tsipras announced the referendum, we were still in the middle of the talks. The Greeks, however, on Sunday will also send a political signal to the rest of Europe. A yes will mean that they want to work closely with the other euro-zone countries to find a solution. A No would make the differences even more evident, and a solution more complicated. | The proposals of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, which are to be voted on are based on a now expired credit program. The Euro Group has not accepted or declined. They do not correspond to the final state of negotiations - as Tsipras announced the referendum, we were still in the middle of the talks. The Greeks, however, on Sunday will also send a political signal to the rest of Europe. A yes will mean that they want to work closely with the other euro-zone countries to find a solution. A No would make the differences even more evident, and a solution more complicated. |
| He added: | He added: |
| It would be wrong to assume that a No would strengthen the Greek negotiating position. The opposite is the case. Following the closure of banks and the introduction of capital controls to attain financial stability again, it has become more complicated and more expensive. Greece is in a substantially worse situation than it was last week. | It would be wrong to assume that a No would strengthen the Greek negotiating position. The opposite is the case. Following the closure of banks and the introduction of capital controls to attain financial stability again, it has become more complicated and more expensive. Greece is in a substantially worse situation than it was last week. |
| The full interview is here in German. | The full interview is here in German. |
| Updated | |
| at 8.16am BST | |
| 8.03am BST | |
| 08:03 | |
| Markets have opened cautiously, with the FTSE 100 down just 4 points, Germany off 0.3% and Italy, Spain and France flat. | Markets have opened cautiously, with the FTSE 100 down just 4 points, Germany off 0.3% and Italy, Spain and France flat. |
| 8.00am BST | |
| 08:00 | |
| On the economic front, there are service sector PMI figures due from Italy, France, Germany and the eurozone as a whole, as well as the UK. | On the economic front, there are service sector PMI figures due from Italy, France, Germany and the eurozone as a whole, as well as the UK. |
| The US, of course, is closed for the Independence Day holiday. | The US, of course, is closed for the Independence Day holiday. |
| Updated | |
| at 8.01am BST | |
| 7.56am BST | |
| 07:56 | |
| Greece’s finance minister clearly relishes the IMF saying the country needs an agreement on debt relief: | Greece’s finance minister clearly relishes the IMF saying the country needs an agreement on debt relief: |
| IMF Agrees With Athens That Greece Needs Debt Relief - The New York Times http://t.co/5c6vp0Y407 | IMF Agrees With Athens That Greece Needs Debt Relief - The New York Times http://t.co/5c6vp0Y407 |
| 7.54am BST | |
| 07:54 | |
| Introduction: Greece awaits referendum developments | Introduction: Greece awaits referendum developments |
| As the referendum clock ticks down towards Sunday’s vote, there is still an outside chance it will not even go ahead. | As the referendum clock ticks down towards Sunday’s vote, there is still an outside chance it will not even go ahead. |
| The Council of State, Greece’s top administrative court, is due to rule on whether it breaches the country’s constitution. Human rights group the Council of Europe has alaready expressed unhappiness with the vote, partly due to the speed of the process and also the question being asked. | The Council of State, Greece’s top administrative court, is due to rule on whether it breaches the country’s constitution. Human rights group the Council of Europe has alaready expressed unhappiness with the vote, partly due to the speed of the process and also the question being asked. |
| Meanwhile the latest poll shows a slight lead for the Yes side - those in favour of accepting the creditors’ proposals. The ALCO polling institute poll, published in the Ethnos newspaper, showed 44.8% for Yes, 43.4% for No and 11.8% undecided. | Meanwhile the latest poll shows a slight lead for the Yes side - those in favour of accepting the creditors’ proposals. The ALCO polling institute poll, published in the Ethnos newspaper, showed 44.8% for Yes, 43.4% for No and 11.8% undecided. |
| Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has already said he would resign if the Yes vote won the day. | Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has already said he would resign if the Yes vote won the day. |
| Meanwhile Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras remained defiant as he used another TV appearance to repeat his call for a No vote. | Meanwhile Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras remained defiant as he used another TV appearance to repeat his call for a No vote. |
| He hit out at former prime ministers who had lined up to support the Yes side, and also suggested the IMF, which on Thursday said Greece would need an extra €60bn of funding and that debt relief had to be part of any new bailout, could have spoken up earlier. | He hit out at former prime ministers who had lined up to support the Yes side, and also suggested the IMF, which on Thursday said Greece would need an extra €60bn of funding and that debt relief had to be part of any new bailout, could have spoken up earlier. |
| Jasper Lawler, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: | Jasper Lawler, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: |
| Post-referendum looks pretty bleak for Greece either way but a ‘No’ vote carries a lot more short term risk. Evidence from the past five months is surely enough to show that muddling out-of-touch bureaucrats in Athens and the Eurozone will not reach a deal before there’s a banking crisis. Without the European Central Bank’s emergency funding, estimates are that Greece’s banks are days from insolvency, even with only 60 euros being withdrawn a day under capital controls. | Post-referendum looks pretty bleak for Greece either way but a ‘No’ vote carries a lot more short term risk. Evidence from the past five months is surely enough to show that muddling out-of-touch bureaucrats in Athens and the Eurozone will not reach a deal before there’s a banking crisis. Without the European Central Bank’s emergency funding, estimates are that Greece’s banks are days from insolvency, even with only 60 euros being withdrawn a day under capital controls. |
| Later come major rallies for both sides in Athens, as supporters gather in the last hours before the vote. | Later come major rallies for both sides in Athens, as supporters gather in the last hours before the vote. |