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Cameron looks to Labour leadership battle for answer to Syrian question Cameron looks to Labour leadership battle for answer to Syrian question
(about 4 hours later)
The defence secretary, Michael Fallon, will use a long arranged debate on international security in the Commons on Thursday to make the case for Britain again looking at supporting air strikes in Syria to drive back Islamic State militants – but it is unlikely action is imminent.The defence secretary, Michael Fallon, will use a long arranged debate on international security in the Commons on Thursday to make the case for Britain again looking at supporting air strikes in Syria to drive back Islamic State militants – but it is unlikely action is imminent.
David Cameron was not far from resignation two years ago when a mixture of Ed Miliband and misreading of signals by government whips saw him defeated on planned air strikes against President Assad to punish the Damascus regime for the use of chemical weapons against its own people. David Cameron was not far from resignation two years ago when a mixture of Ed Miliband and misreading of signals by government whips saw him defeated on planned air strikes against Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, to punish the Damascus regime for the use of chemical weapons against its own people.
Cameron felt badly burnt by the experience, and will not want a repeat of a diplomatic and political embarrassment that left him looking foolish in Washington. However, he regards the war against Muslim extremism as the single biggest item on his second-term agenda, and is spending more time on a “full-spectrum response” on this issue than any other. Cameron felt badly burnt by the experience and will not want a repeat of a diplomatic and political embarrassment that left him looking foolish in Washington. However, he regards the war against Muslim extremism as the single biggest item on his second-term agenda, and is spending more time on a “full-spectrum response” on this issue than any other.
With 30 British tourists killed on their sun loungers on the beaches of Tunisia, Cameron thinks he does not choose war, but that war has chosen him. With 30 British tourists killed on their sunloungers on the beaches of Tunisia, Cameron thinks he does not choose war, but that war has chosen him.
He is likely to want to know the identity of the next Labour leader before putting any further bombing campaign to the Commons. All-party support is not a prerequisite, but given his small majority and the continuing scepticism among Tory MPs, he would need to know Labour’s backing is bankable. Cameron will not have been encouraged by the sceptical response from the new Conservative chair of the foreign affairs select committee, Crispin Blunt. Blunt told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme UK bombing in Syria would make no operational difference since the US was already hitting targets in both Syria and Iraq. He is likely to want to know the identity of the next Labour leader before putting any further bombing campaign to the Commons. All-party support is not a prerequisite, but given his small majority and the continuing scepticism among Tory MPs, he would need to know Labour’s backing is bankable. Cameron will not have been encouraged by the sceptical response from the new Conservative chair of the foreign affairs select committee, Crispin Blunt. Blunt told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that UK bombing in Syria would make no operational difference since the US was already hitting targets in both Syria and Iraq.
Foreign policy has so far largely been ignored in the Labour leadership debate, as the candidates focus on bread and butter issues such as devolution, or welfare. But even Liz Kendall, a relative novice in terms of foreign affairs and the candidate most likely to support interventionism, is unlikely to rush out a blank cheque for military action. Kendall has supported the UK defence budget remaining at 2% of GDP, but she may feel she has already taken enough forward positions in the contest. Foreign policy has so far largely been ignored in the Labour leadership debate, as the candidates focus on bread-and-butter issues such as devolution and welfare. But even Liz Kendall, a relative novice in terms of foreign affairs and the candidate most likely to support interventionism, is unlikely to rush out a blank cheque for military action. Kendall has supported the UK defence budget remaining at 2% of GDP, but she may feel she has already taken enough forward positions in the contest.
Harriet Harman, the interim leader, appointed Hilary Benn to be shadow foreign secretary and, according to some members of the Miliband team, he was one of the strongest voices cautioning against supporting military action against Assad two years ago. The shadow defence secretary, Vernon Coaker, is likely to be more supportive.Harriet Harman, the interim leader, appointed Hilary Benn to be shadow foreign secretary and, according to some members of the Miliband team, he was one of the strongest voices cautioning against supporting military action against Assad two years ago. The shadow defence secretary, Vernon Coaker, is likely to be more supportive.
Downing Street recalls it was a struggle even to get Miliband’s agreement to bomb Isis in Iraq, saying it required tortuous negotiations on wording on the phone before he finally agreed, just ahead of the Labour annual conference.Downing Street recalls it was a struggle even to get Miliband’s agreement to bomb Isis in Iraq, saying it required tortuous negotiations on wording on the phone before he finally agreed, just ahead of the Labour annual conference.
The case for British military action in Iraq was a lot clearer than in Syria. Iraq has, in President Abadi, a leader the west supports, and who is doing something to make his security structure represent the whole of Iraq, and not just a Shia minority. The case for British military action in Iraq was a lot clearer than in Syria. In Haider al-Abadi, its president, Iraq has a leader the west supports, and who is doing something to make his security structure represent the whole of Iraq, and not just a Shia minority.
In Syria, there is a glaring absence of western “good guys” – only daily scenes of slaughter, refugees and horror. The UK foreign policy remains that Assad is an obstacle to peace and has to go as part of a negotiated settlement. The other main forces on the ground – Isis, Jund al-Aqsa and al-Nusra Front – are hardly UK allies. So the purpose of any bombing campaign would need explanation, something Washington has failed so far to provide. In Syria, there is a glaring absence of western “good guys” – only daily scenes of slaughter, refugees and horror. The UK foreign policy remains that Assad is an obstacle to peace and has to go as part of a negotiated settlement. The other main forces on the ground – Isis, Jund al-Aqsa and the al-Nusra Front – are hardly UK allies. So the purpose of any bombing campaign would need explanation, something Washington has failed so far to provide.
Fallon can claim legitimacy for a bombing campaign possibly aimed at Raqqa, the effective “capital” of Isis, on the grounds that Isis is training British citizens to return as terrorists, or more simply that it is the ideological base for the Tunisians that killed British tourists. But legitimacy and diplomacy are two different things. Cameron was fond in opposition of saying you cannot drop democracy on a country from 30,000ft, a cutting reference to the limits of Tony Blair’s interventionism. In government he has seen the limits of his own interventionism in Libya, now an ungoverned space that may have been the base for attacks. Fallon can claim legitimacy for a bombing campaign possibly aimed at Raqqa, the effective “capital” of Isis, on the grounds that Isis is training British citizens to return as terrorists, or more simply that it is the ideological base for the Tunisians that killed British tourists. But legitimacy and diplomacy are two different things. Cameron was fond in opposition of saying you cannot drop democracy on a country from 30,000ft, a cutting reference to the limits of Tony Blair’s interventionism. In government, he has seen the limits of his own interventionism in Libya, now an ungoverned space that may have been the base for attacks.