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Greece debt crisis: Athens fails to repay IMF as bailout runs out - as it happened Greece debt crisis: Athens fails to repay IMF as bailout runs out - as it happened
(30 days later)
1.17am BST1.17am BST
01:1701:17
Summary: Greece on its own after IMF defaultSummary: Greece on its own after IMF default
And that’s it... Another day for the history books, with:And that’s it... Another day for the history books, with:
Here’s the full story.Here’s the full story.
Related: Greek failure to make IMF payment deals historic blow to eurozoneRelated: Greek failure to make IMF payment deals historic blow to eurozone
We’ll be back with a new liveblog in the morning, to do it all again. Thanks for reading, commenting, and your help. Goodnight! GWWe’ll be back with a new liveblog in the morning, to do it all again. Thanks for reading, commenting, and your help. Goodnight! GW
1.15am BST1.15am BST
01:1501:15
Confirmation that a 3rd bailout will be very hard to agree:Confirmation that a 3rd bailout will be very hard to agree:
No new bailout while @tsipras_eu & @yanisvaroufakis remain power, says senior German conservative http://t.co/h3ZktrocJdNo new bailout while @tsipras_eu & @yanisvaroufakis remain power, says senior German conservative http://t.co/h3ZktrocJd
12.54am BST12.54am BST
00:5400:54
The Guardian isn’t the only UK paper leading on Greece tomorrow -- the crisis is also splashed on the FT (again!) and The Scotsman, plus the International New York Times.The Guardian isn’t the only UK paper leading on Greece tomorrow -- the crisis is also splashed on the FT (again!) and The Scotsman, plus the International New York Times.
Wednesday's FT front page: Last-minute Greek appeal over bailout rejected #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/EZvbklhPgMWednesday's FT front page: Last-minute Greek appeal over bailout rejected #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/EZvbklhPgM
Wednesday's Scotsman: Greece in 11th hour bid for bail out from EU #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/ZlY4EaALwfWednesday's Scotsman: Greece in 11th hour bid for bail out from EU #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/ZlY4EaALwf
Wednesday's International NY Times: Desperate Greece seeks new bailout #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/cryheRhICRWednesday's International NY Times: Desperate Greece seeks new bailout #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/cryheRhICR
Wednesday's Guardian: Price of a deal: Greece left mired in debt for decades #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/fT1Np2dESKWednesday's Guardian: Price of a deal: Greece left mired in debt for decades #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/fT1Np2dESK
12.24am BST12.24am BST
00:2400:24
Our Europe editor, Ian Traynor, captures the historic nature of tonight’s events (I’ve added links to earlier points in the blog):Our Europe editor, Ian Traynor, captures the historic nature of tonight’s events (I’ve added links to earlier points in the blog):
Greece is left alone insolvent and almost bankrupt today after five years of €240bn in European bailouts dried up and the country became the first in the European Union to default on its creditors. The country failed to make a €1.5bn payment to the International Monetary Fund on time and thrust the eurozone into an emergency.Greece is left alone insolvent and almost bankrupt today after five years of €240bn in European bailouts dried up and the country became the first in the European Union to default on its creditors. The country failed to make a €1.5bn payment to the International Monetary Fund on time and thrust the eurozone into an emergency.
The long-running debt debacle left Greece on the brink of financial collapse, worsening recent years of wrenching austerity, and represented a historic blow to a Europe committed to the irreversibility of its 16-year-old single currency.The long-running debt debacle left Greece on the brink of financial collapse, worsening recent years of wrenching austerity, and represented a historic blow to a Europe committed to the irreversibility of its 16-year-old single currency.
The deadline on Greece’s bailout programmes, inaugurated in 2010, ended at midnight. The country was left without a financial lifeline for the first time since.The deadline on Greece’s bailout programmes, inaugurated in 2010, ended at midnight. The country was left without a financial lifeline for the first time since.
In a sudden referendum called on creditors’ bailout terms which formally no longer exist, Greeks are to vote on Sunday on what EU leaders say is a choice between quitting or staying in the euro.In a sudden referendum called on creditors’ bailout terms which formally no longer exist, Greeks are to vote on Sunday on what EU leaders say is a choice between quitting or staying in the euro.
Following a fortnight of non-stop brinkmanship at the highest level of EU leadership over how to resolve the impasse over Greece’s financial rescue, the radical leftwing government of the prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, tabled surprise new proposals on Tuesday, demanding that the bailout concluding yesterday be rolled over into a new two-year programme worth almost €30bn to Greece to be spent on servicing debt.Following a fortnight of non-stop brinkmanship at the highest level of EU leadership over how to resolve the impasse over Greece’s financial rescue, the radical leftwing government of the prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, tabled surprise new proposals on Tuesday, demanding that the bailout concluding yesterday be rolled over into a new two-year programme worth almost €30bn to Greece to be spent on servicing debt.
The demand included calls for a month of bridging finance to avoid the IMF default and for broader debt relief without mentioning Greek concessions in return for acceptance. It was promptly spurned by key creditors as too little too late.The demand included calls for a month of bridging finance to avoid the IMF default and for broader debt relief without mentioning Greek concessions in return for acceptance. It was promptly spurned by key creditors as too little too late.
“We won’t negotiate about anything new at all until a referendum, as planned, takes place,” said Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany on Tuesday. “This evening the programme expires.”“We won’t negotiate about anything new at all until a referendum, as planned, takes place,” said Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany on Tuesday. “This evening the programme expires.”
The 19 finance ministers of the single currency bloc talked for merely an hour by teleconference on Tuesday evening and dismissed the last-minute brinkmanship from Tsipras.The 19 finance ministers of the single currency bloc talked for merely an hour by teleconference on Tuesday evening and dismissed the last-minute brinkmanship from Tsipras.
But Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who chairs the committee, said the ministers would confer again on Wednesday and that Athens was expected to present further proposals on how to resolve the critical situation.....But Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who chairs the committee, said the ministers would confer again on Wednesday and that Athens was expected to present further proposals on how to resolve the critical situation.....
More, if your nerves can take it, here:More, if your nerves can take it, here:
Related: Eurozone thrust into state of emergency as Greece left without financial lifelineRelated: Eurozone thrust into state of emergency as Greece left without financial lifeline
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.28am BSTat 12.28am BST
12.16am BST12.16am BST
00:1600:16
Katie AllenKatie Allen
Analysts at SocGen agree that any new bailout would take time, which has implications for the ECB in terms of getting its own repayments due in July from Greece.Analysts at SocGen agree that any new bailout would take time, which has implications for the ECB in terms of getting its own repayments due in July from Greece.
“Our view is that agreeing on a third bailout will be a lengthy process, which suggests that Greece will miss the ECB payment on 20 July.”“Our view is that agreeing on a third bailout will be a lengthy process, which suggests that Greece will miss the ECB payment on 20 July.”
€6.7bn of Greek bonds owned by the ECB mature in July and August, according to this handy breakdown of Greek debts from Reuters.€6.7bn of Greek bonds owned by the ECB mature in July and August, according to this handy breakdown of Greek debts from Reuters.
12.13am BST12.13am BST
00:1300:13
Greece now joins Somalia, Sudan and Zimbabwe in arrears at the IMF tonight.Greece now joins Somalia, Sudan and Zimbabwe in arrears at the IMF tonight.
Here's who else is in arrears right now (missed payments to IMF) as of end of May pic.twitter.com/waP6hNRf4IHere's who else is in arrears right now (missed payments to IMF) as of end of May pic.twitter.com/waP6hNRf4I
12.09am BST12.09am BST
00:0900:09
Now, attention shifts to Frankfurt and the European Central Bank.Now, attention shifts to Frankfurt and the European Central Bank.
The ECB, which has been providing drip-feed support to Greece’s ravaged banks, will discuss whether to increase, or potentially withdraw emergency funding at its scheduled governing council meeting on Wednesday.The ECB, which has been providing drip-feed support to Greece’s ravaged banks, will discuss whether to increase, or potentially withdraw emergency funding at its scheduled governing council meeting on Wednesday.
Referring to Greece’s sudden request for a new deal on Tuesday, the economic research team at Daiwa Capital Markets drew a link to Wednesday’s ECB meeting and discussions about emergency liquidity assistance (ELA).Referring to Greece’s sudden request for a new deal on Tuesday, the economic research team at Daiwa Capital Markets drew a link to Wednesday’s ECB meeting and discussions about emergency liquidity assistance (ELA).
In a note published before, but in anticipation of, the missed IMF deadline, they wrote:In a note published before, but in anticipation of, the missed IMF deadline, they wrote:
“Given the length and ultimate failure of the talks on the current programme, it would likely take several months to agree the detail of a new third programme, if indeed such a programme could be agreed at all. (The creditors would surely expect the current Greek government to be negotiating in bad faith.)“Given the length and ultimate failure of the talks on the current programme, it would likely take several months to agree the detail of a new third programme, if indeed such a programme could be agreed at all. (The creditors would surely expect the current Greek government to be negotiating in bad faith.)
So, this latest ruse from Tsipras might be interpreted as an attempt to boost the ‘No’ vote in the coming weekend’s referendum by suggesting that it need not necessarily represent a vote for Grexit. It might also seek to give cover to the ECB to maintain ELA tomorrow if and when the IMF payment has been missed.”So, this latest ruse from Tsipras might be interpreted as an attempt to boost the ‘No’ vote in the coming weekend’s referendum by suggesting that it need not necessarily represent a vote for Grexit. It might also seek to give cover to the ECB to maintain ELA tomorrow if and when the IMF payment has been missed.”
12.07am BST12.07am BST
00:0700:07
Over in Brussels, the death of Greece’s second bailout programme has been confirmed too.Over in Brussels, the death of Greece’s second bailout programme has been confirmed too.
The failure to get an extension tonight - and the broader failure of the two sides to reach a deal since January (!) – means the €7.2bn of loans won’t be handed over. It also meatns that €10.9bn set aside to recapitalise Greece’s banks has vanished too.The failure to get an extension tonight - and the broader failure of the two sides to reach a deal since January (!) – means the €7.2bn of loans won’t be handed over. It also meatns that €10.9bn set aside to recapitalise Greece’s banks has vanished too.
Klaus Regling, CEO of the EFSF (the body which made the loans to Greece) argues that the bailout programme was delivering results:Klaus Regling, CEO of the EFSF (the body which made the loans to Greece) argues that the bailout programme was delivering results:
Due to the economic policies adopted under the EFSF programme, the country was on a good path towards strong growth until the second half of 2014. The many sacrifices which the Greek people had to make were paying off.Due to the economic policies adopted under the EFSF programme, the country was on a good path towards strong growth until the second half of 2014. The many sacrifices which the Greek people had to make were paying off.
Greece managed to cut its budget deficit and regain competitiveness. The country was able to access financial markets again and saw its high unemployment start declining.Greece managed to cut its budget deficit and regain competitiveness. The country was able to access financial markets again and saw its high unemployment start declining.
According to the OECD and World Bank, Greece was a reform champion until 2014, with encouraging growth prospects. This trend can continue if the Greek population decides to return to the path of reform within the euro area.”According to the OECD and World Bank, Greece was a reform champion until 2014, with encouraging growth prospects. This trend can continue if the Greek population decides to return to the path of reform within the euro area.”
Boom - ESM http://t.co/vsWIyyHM1R Bang - IMF https://t.co/v8LjsVez9e Bosh..?Boom - ESM http://t.co/vsWIyyHM1R Bang - IMF https://t.co/v8LjsVez9e Bosh..?
12.00am BST12.00am BST
00:0000:00
Greece shouldn’t hold out much hope of an extension to its €1.5bn bill -- even though the IMF said it would consider the request.Greece shouldn’t hold out much hope of an extension to its €1.5bn bill -- even though the IMF said it would consider the request.
The process of reviewing Greece's request to extend its repayment schedule by itself would take weeks. https://t.co/LHVvhGcuxUThe process of reviewing Greece's request to extend its repayment schedule by itself would take weeks. https://t.co/LHVvhGcuxU
And the fund hasn't approved a repayment extension for three decades, considering it bad, fruitless policy. https://t.co/KUURjo9jCPAnd the fund hasn't approved a repayment extension for three decades, considering it bad, fruitless policy. https://t.co/KUURjo9jCP
11.47pm BST11.47pm BST
23:4723:47
I am restructuring You are in arrears She has defaultedI am restructuring You are in arrears She has defaulted
11.44pm BST11.44pm BST
23:4423:44
Katie AllenKatie Allen
On top of the ‘is it, or is it not, a default’ debate, there is the question over whether this constitutes a credit event.On top of the ‘is it, or is it not, a default’ debate, there is the question over whether this constitutes a credit event.
This matters, because a credit event (which isn’t simply what it says on the tin: someone not meeting a creditor demand) triggers payouts on credit default swaps - a kind of insurance contract against a country or company defaulting.This matters, because a credit event (which isn’t simply what it says on the tin: someone not meeting a creditor demand) triggers payouts on credit default swaps - a kind of insurance contract against a country or company defaulting.
The credit ratings agencies have already said not paying the IMF, which relates to official money and not private bondholders, is not a credit event.The credit ratings agencies have already said not paying the IMF, which relates to official money and not private bondholders, is not a credit event.
In any case it is up to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) to rule over what is and isn’t a credit event. More on ISDA and all that in this piece from 2012.In any case it is up to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) to rule over what is and isn’t a credit event. More on ISDA and all that in this piece from 2012.
11.38pm BST11.38pm BST
23:3823:38
Katie AllenKatie Allen
In the genteel world of the IMF, one falls into ‘arrears’ rather than plunging into ‘default’.In the genteel world of the IMF, one falls into ‘arrears’ rather than plunging into ‘default’.
But, if it looks like a default, swims like a default, and quacks like a default, then it’s probably a default, my colleague Katie Allen explains.But, if it looks like a default, swims like a default, and quacks like a default, then it’s probably a default, my colleague Katie Allen explains.
As near-bankrupt hurtles towards its deadline to pay the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, financial experts are grappling with the question of whether a failure to come up with the cash would constitute a sovereign default.As near-bankrupt hurtles towards its deadline to pay the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, financial experts are grappling with the question of whether a failure to come up with the cash would constitute a sovereign default.
A default occurs when a country, or other borrower, fails to meet its obligation to repay a lender on time. But it is not, technically, the borrower who defaults: it is the lender who declares that the borrower is in default.A default occurs when a country, or other borrower, fails to meet its obligation to repay a lender on time. But it is not, technically, the borrower who defaults: it is the lender who declares that the borrower is in default.
Rating agencies have declared that missing a payment to an official body like the IMF isn’t the same as defaulting on a loan to, say, a commercial bank.Rating agencies have declared that missing a payment to an official body like the IMF isn’t the same as defaulting on a loan to, say, a commercial bank.
But, as Gary Jenkins, chief credit strategist at LNG Capital, said:But, as Gary Jenkins, chief credit strategist at LNG Capital, said:
“There has been lots of talk that this is not really a default. Indeed the rating agencies have stated that they would not consider a non-payment as a default. All I can say on this matter is that if you do not pay the absolute last lender of resort I think that’s a default.”“There has been lots of talk that this is not really a default. Indeed the rating agencies have stated that they would not consider a non-payment as a default. All I can say on this matter is that if you do not pay the absolute last lender of resort I think that’s a default.”
Related: Greece debt crisis: when is a default not a default?Related: Greece debt crisis: when is a default not a default?
11.32pm BST11.32pm BST
23:3223:32
The IMF has issued a short statement, confirming that Gerry Rice told reporters a few minutes ago that:The IMF has issued a short statement, confirming that Gerry Rice told reporters a few minutes ago that:
“I confirm that the SDR 1.2 billion repayment (about EUR 1.5 billion) due by Greece to the IMF today has not been received. We have informed our Executive Board that Greece is now in arrears and can only receive IMF financing once the arrears are cleared.“I confirm that the SDR 1.2 billion repayment (about EUR 1.5 billion) due by Greece to the IMF today has not been received. We have informed our Executive Board that Greece is now in arrears and can only receive IMF financing once the arrears are cleared.
“I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an extension of Greece’s repayment obligation that fell due today, which will go to the IMF’s Executive Board in due course.”“I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an extension of Greece’s repayment obligation that fell due today, which will go to the IMF’s Executive Board in due course.”
Statement by the IMF on Greece: http://t.co/PuXWGYLhbgStatement by the IMF on Greece: http://t.co/PuXWGYLhbg
11.28pm BST11.28pm BST
23:2823:28
Greece is not the first country to be in arrears to the IMF, and (spoiler alert) it certainly won’t be the last.Greece is not the first country to be in arrears to the IMF, and (spoiler alert) it certainly won’t be the last.
But it is the first ‘advanced economy’ to be in this state (Argentina simply threw the IMF out). And most other countries have only taken such a dramatic step because they were riven with conflict.But it is the first ‘advanced economy’ to be in this state (Argentina simply threw the IMF out). And most other countries have only taken such a dramatic step because they were riven with conflict.
These are not normal times in the eurozone. This really is a moment.These are not normal times in the eurozone. This really is a moment.
A history of countries with protracted arrears with the IMF (via http://t.co/dlmNVXX7uJ): pic.twitter.com/ALHgOl6vM3A history of countries with protracted arrears with the IMF (via http://t.co/dlmNVXX7uJ): pic.twitter.com/ALHgOl6vM3
11.24pm BST11.24pm BST
23:2423:24
Here’s how the news broke in Washington, via Reuters.Here’s how the news broke in Washington, via Reuters.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday confirmed Greece had not made its 1.5 billioneuro loan repayment to the Fund, making it the first advanced economy to ever be in arrears to the Fund.The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday confirmed Greece had not made its 1.5 billioneuro loan repayment to the Fund, making it the first advanced economy to ever be in arrears to the Fund.
The missed payment, the largest in the Fund’s history, is equivalent to a default, in that both imply a breach of Athens’ obligations.The missed payment, the largest in the Fund’s history, is equivalent to a default, in that both imply a breach of Athens’ obligations.
IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said Greece can now only receive further IMF funding once the arrears are cleared.IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said Greece can now only receive further IMF funding once the arrears are cleared.
Rice confirmed that Greece had asked for a last-minute repayment extension earlier on Tuesday, which the Fund’s board will consider “in due course.”Rice confirmed that Greece had asked for a last-minute repayment extension earlier on Tuesday, which the Fund’s board will consider “in due course.”
11.17pm BST11.17pm BST
23:1723:17
IMF: Greece didn't make its paymentIMF: Greece didn't make its payment
Breaking news from Washington -- the International Monetary Fund has confirmed that Greece did not make its €1.5bn repayment today.Breaking news from Washington -- the International Monetary Fund has confirmed that Greece did not make its €1.5bn repayment today.
It also confirms that Athens did make a request to extend the payment. And the board will now consider that request “in due course”.It also confirms that Athens did make a request to extend the payment. And the board will now consider that request “in due course”.
I don’t know immediately if that is a possible reprieve, or the Fund just following the official policy....I don’t know immediately if that is a possible reprieve, or the Fund just following the official policy....
11.07pm BST11.07pm BST
23:0723:07
Historic moment: Greece in arrears to the IMFHistoric moment: Greece in arrears to the IMF
That’s it. There was no last-second reprieve. No sudden appearance of €1.5bn in the IMF’s bank account.That’s it. There was no last-second reprieve. No sudden appearance of €1.5bn in the IMF’s bank account.
Greece’s financial crisis has just entered a new phase.Greece’s financial crisis has just entered a new phase.
#GREECE's bailout has expired and the country is in arrears to the IMF.#GREECE's bailout has expired and the country is in arrears to the IMF.
oooph! the saddest day(s) in europe for a long time #greeceoooph! the saddest day(s) in europe for a long time #greece
H-Hour, D-Day #GreeceH-Hour, D-Day #Greece
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.41pm BSTat 11.41pm BST
11.00pm BST11.00pm BST
23:0023:00
That’s it. It’s 6pm in Washington....so we’re about to find if Greece is the first developed country to default on an IMF loan......That’s it. It’s 6pm in Washington....so we’re about to find if Greece is the first developed country to default on an IMF loan......
And midnight in Brussels, meaning its second bailout programme is over.And midnight in Brussels, meaning its second bailout programme is over.
10.56pm BST10.56pm BST
22:5622:56
Tick, tock, tick, tock....Tick, tock, tick, tock....
#Greece's default countdown on CNN. #Greferendum #GreeceCrisis pic.twitter.com/v4gwxstvnm#Greece's default countdown on CNN. #Greferendum #GreeceCrisis pic.twitter.com/v4gwxstvnm
10.52pm BST
22:52
Updated
at 10.52pm BST
10.45pm BST
22:45
Greece bailout just 15 minutes from expiring....
This is the way the bailout ends, not with a bang.....but with journalists gathering outside the International Monetary Fund’s HQ in Washington.
Αρχίσαμε να μαζευόμαστε στο ΔΝΤ... Αναμένουμε δήλωση κάποια στιγμή... pic.twitter.com/4cZEcIrI72
That’s because the IMF may confirm, sometime after 6pm local time, that Greece has not repaid the €1.6bn due today.
That would mean it is officially ‘in arrears’ with the Fund -- which Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who chairs the eurogroup, has already dubbed being ‘in default’.
And it just happens that the second bailout programme will also expire, quietly, at the same moment - midnight Brussels.
The last hope of an brief extension was extinguished tonight by eurozone finance ministers this evening, even though Athens is seeking a new, third bailout tonight.
So, Greece will enter Wednesday without the cloak of a programme from its eurozone neighbours, with its banks closed, capital controls in place, and a looming referendum:
Latest #Greferendum odds from Ladbrokes: 1/4 YES to bailout deal 11/4 NO to deal #newsnight
Updated
at 10.47pm BST
10.36pm BST
22:36
A sneak preview of Wednesday’s front page:
Price of the deal: Greece mired in debt for decades. Tomorrow's Guardian front page pic.twitter.com/zFSnmqEVBZ
And the story is that Greece has no chance of debts down to a sustainable level anytime soon, if it accepts the deal from its creditors.
Alberto Nardelli reports:
Greece would face an unsustainable level of debt by 2030 even if it signs up to the full package of tax and spending reforms demanded of it, according to unpublished documents compiled by its three main creditors.
The documents, drawn up by the so-called troika of lenders, support Greece’s argument that it needs substantial debt relief for a lasting economic recovery. They show that, even after 15 years of sustained strong growth, the country would face a level of debt that the International Monetary Fund deems unsustainable.
The documents show that the IMF’s baseline estimate – the most likely outcome – is that Greece’s debt would still be 118% of GDP in 2030, even if it signs up to the package of tax and spending reforms demanded. That is well above the 110% the IMF regards as sustainable given Greece’s debt profile, a level set in 2012. The country’s debt level is currently 175% and likely to go higher because of its recent slide back into recession.
The documents admit that under the baseline scenario “significant concessions” are necessary to improve Greece’s chances of ridding itself permanently of its debt financing woes.
Even under the best case scenario, which includes growth of 4% a year for the next five years, Greece’s debt levels will drop to only 124%, by 2022. The best case also anticipates €15bn (£10bn) in proceeds from privatisations, five times the estimate in the most likely scenario.
But under all the scenarios, which all assume a third bailout programme, looked at by the troika – the European commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF – Greece has no chance of meeting the target of reducing its debt to “well below 110% of GDP by 2022” set by the Eurogroup of finance ministers in November 2012.... (more here)
10.07pm BST
22:07
Jeroen Dijsselbloem has also told CNN that “Greece will be in default tomorrow morning to the IMF”, unless it makes that €1.6bn repayment within the hour....
CNN interview @J_Dijsselbloem after #Eurogroup call tonight #Greece http://t.co/LXxZ7RQfrZ
9.56pm BST
21:56
VIDEO: Dijsselbloem says Greece will be in default tomorrow
Here’s a video clip of the head of the eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, confirming that Greece’s bailout cannot be extended beyond tonight.
There’s simple not enough time - and also the political situation hasn’t changed - says, speaking after tonight’s teleconference.
He adds that a third bailout is always possible, but warns it would be “quite a procedure” and in the meantime the situation in the Greek economy and banking sector has become even worse:
“So it would be a very difficult path to consider.”
Updated
at 10.26pm BST
9.36pm BST
21:36
Fitch downgrades Greece, warns default risks are high
There must be better ways to mark the end of your bailout than by getting downgraded.
Rating agency Fitch has just cut Greece’s rating by one notch from CCC to CC, in an unscheduled move.
It says there is now a much higher danger that Greece defaults on debt owed to private creditors (so not the IMF, or the ECB).
BREAKING: Fitch downgrade #Greece to CC (high default risk) from CCC, which means they are the lowest of the 3 major rating agencies #Grexit
Fitch admits that it had expected a deal to come before tonight:
The breakdown of the negotiations between the Greek government and its creditors has significantly increased the risk that Greece will not be able to honour its debt obligations in the coming months, including bonds held by the private sector. We now view a default on government debt held by private creditors as probable. Recent events have taken us beyond our previous base case that a deal would be struck before the expiry of the programme.
Fitch has also assessed the impact of Sunday’s referendum:
The government has called a referendum for 5 July on whether to accept the 25 June proposals of the creditor institutions regarding policy conditionality and is endorsing a ‘No’ vote to reject the deal. Although early polls suggest a ‘Yes’ vote is the more likely outcome, the risk of a ‘No’ vote is significant. In our view, a ‘No’ vote would dramatically increase the risk of a Greek exit from the eurozone. Such an exit would probably be disorderly as the current government is unlikely to co-operate with the European authorities in such an event.
Although a ‘Yes’ vote may help to avoid some of the more extreme risks face by Greece, the credit situation would remain precarious. A ‘Yes’ could lead to the formation of a new government with a mandate to reach an agreement with creditors on policy conditionality. However, the composition of the Greek parliament (two-thirds of MPs belong to anti-austerity parties) and the short timeframe before Greece’s €3.5bn Eurosystem redemption would make this a challenging prospect.
The current situation also means that Greece will most probably begin to run arrears with the IMF (€1.6bn loan repayment due 30 June) and risks running arrears on bonds held by the Eurosystem (€3.5bn due 20 July).
Excluding bonds held by the Eurosystem, coupon payments and redemptions in July amount to about €200m.
Fitch is also worried that the capital controls brought in yesterday will cause severe damage to the economy (a plausible conclusion)
The imposition of capital controls in Greece and risk of a disorderly and more permanent break from the Eurozone’s payment system has led us to lower the Country Ceiling by one notch to ‘CCC’. This reflects an increased risk that domestic entities will be unable to service international debt obligations due to the restrictions on capital outflows from the Greek economy.
Updated
at 9.44pm BST
9.19pm BST
21:19
Here’s a video clip of tonight’s demonstration, from Reuters:
And for balance.... here’s a reminder of yesterday’s “No campaign” rally.
9.16pm BST
21:16
Rumours of (attempted) horse-trading at the eurogroup conference call this evening:
Varoufakis hat in Eurogruppe angeboten, Referendum gegen Schuldenschnitt zu tauschen. Da platzen ein paar Krägen, Telefonschalte isch over.
#greece in eurogroup teleconference @yanisvaroufakis tried to trade debt relief for referendum. got nowhere https://t.co/oid7EgDag9
9.09pm BST
21:09
Drat, I missed the hour mark. Greece now has just under two hours until its bailout expires.
That’s also the moment that it misses its payment to the IMF - joining a small gang who are currently in arrears:
Greece joins a very small and not very enviable club in two hours' time http://t.co/KcmQUYAyTX pic.twitter.com/hz3enrAqtX
9.01pm BST
21:01
There’s some dispute tonight about exactly what Dragasakis said on TV. So, for Greek readers, here’s a clip:
@paulmasonnews He said that a newspaper claimed that he urged Tsipras to accept the offer, not that he really did it https://t.co/Keg6HhzLIQ
As opposed to saying it himself MT @antonisgal Dragasakis said that a newspaper claimed that he proposed to Tsipras to accept the offer.
The rest of us can watch the comments section below for insight..... :)