This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/26/a-terrible-blow-but-tunisia-will-not-buckle

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
A terrible blow, but Tunisia will not buckle A terrible blow, but Tunisia will not buckle
(about 17 hours later)
Related: Terror attacks: gunmen open fire on Tunisia tourist beach – live updates
Once again, a terror attack has struck innocent people blindly. This time, it was Tunisia’s turn (the very same day other attacks took place in Eastern France, and in Kuwait – it remains to be seen if they were coordinated or if it was a case of grim coincidence). At the seaside resort of Port El Kantaoui, near Sousse, where the summer season is starting in earnest, much blood was spilled. The gunman appears to have opened fire at holidaymakers, with foreign tourists among the victims. As a large-scale police and emergency operation swings into action, we can only imagine the grief of those whose loved ones may have been injured or killed. And though details are still becoming clear, the meaning of this new attack is beginning to take shape.Once again, a terror attack has struck innocent people blindly. This time, it was Tunisia’s turn (the very same day other attacks took place in Eastern France, and in Kuwait – it remains to be seen if they were coordinated or if it was a case of grim coincidence). At the seaside resort of Port El Kantaoui, near Sousse, where the summer season is starting in earnest, much blood was spilled. The gunman appears to have opened fire at holidaymakers, with foreign tourists among the victims. As a large-scale police and emergency operation swings into action, we can only imagine the grief of those whose loved ones may have been injured or killed. And though details are still becoming clear, the meaning of this new attack is beginning to take shape.
Since it targeted the upmarket marina of Port El Kantaoui, the attack is likely to be regarded as conveying a symbolic message. The resort is emblematic of western influence on Tunisian society, complete with luxury hotels, yachts, boutiques, and seafront restaurants. There, Tunisians, expatriates and tourists interact freely and harmoniously. Qualities that make it an attractive target to those with jihadist sympathies.Since it targeted the upmarket marina of Port El Kantaoui, the attack is likely to be regarded as conveying a symbolic message. The resort is emblematic of western influence on Tunisian society, complete with luxury hotels, yachts, boutiques, and seafront restaurants. There, Tunisians, expatriates and tourists interact freely and harmoniously. Qualities that make it an attractive target to those with jihadist sympathies.
The immediate result (coming only a few months after a machine-gunning in the Bardo Museum in Tunis claimed the lives of twenty-two victims) is that the already struggling tourism sector in Tunisia will face a further blow. Figures from April saw the sector shrink by around a quarter compared to 2014, in terms of both the number of tourists and overall income. To understand the depth of the crisis, one has to remember that 2014 levels were far below those of the pre-revolutionary years.The immediate result (coming only a few months after a machine-gunning in the Bardo Museum in Tunis claimed the lives of twenty-two victims) is that the already struggling tourism sector in Tunisia will face a further blow. Figures from April saw the sector shrink by around a quarter compared to 2014, in terms of both the number of tourists and overall income. To understand the depth of the crisis, one has to remember that 2014 levels were far below those of the pre-revolutionary years.
Terror-related anxieties deter many tourists and travellers from the Middle East and North Africa region. This not only reduces the number of visitors, but also drives the prices of package holidays down dramatically. Beyond the murders themselves, which will reverberate terribly in the lives of all those affected, the country will therefore also face an economic penalty. With a total contribution of 15% of the national GDP, and around half a million jobs at stake (in a country of eleven million inhabitants), tourism is a key economic sector in Tunisia. Some areas rely almost exclusively on the revenue it generates. A further reduction in tourist numbers may increase socio-economic tensions in a country which cannot count on oil resources to buy social peace (unlike its Western neighbour Algeria, which has been doing it quite liberally over the last two decades).Terror-related anxieties deter many tourists and travellers from the Middle East and North Africa region. This not only reduces the number of visitors, but also drives the prices of package holidays down dramatically. Beyond the murders themselves, which will reverberate terribly in the lives of all those affected, the country will therefore also face an economic penalty. With a total contribution of 15% of the national GDP, and around half a million jobs at stake (in a country of eleven million inhabitants), tourism is a key economic sector in Tunisia. Some areas rely almost exclusively on the revenue it generates. A further reduction in tourist numbers may increase socio-economic tensions in a country which cannot count on oil resources to buy social peace (unlike its Western neighbour Algeria, which has been doing it quite liberally over the last two decades).
Yet, Tunisia’s political culture means the attack, whoever is found to have perpetrated it, will likely translate into further popular support for the democratically elected government of president Beji Caid Essebsi and prime minister Habib Essid. The state and the army seem to be in control of the situation. And the fact that the attack was mounted during the holy month of Ramadan will further increase the outrage which the overwhelming majority of the Tunisian people will feel towards these acts.Yet, Tunisia’s political culture means the attack, whoever is found to have perpetrated it, will likely translate into further popular support for the democratically elected government of president Beji Caid Essebsi and prime minister Habib Essid. The state and the army seem to be in control of the situation. And the fact that the attack was mounted during the holy month of Ramadan will further increase the outrage which the overwhelming majority of the Tunisian people will feel towards these acts.
Although the news from Sousse is undoubtedly terrible, its very nature might actually reflect the relative weakness of violent groups in Tunisia, a country which emerged from the upheaval of the so-called Arab spring with a consensual government enjoying a democratic mandate. Whilst groups adhering to jihadist ideology operate freely in neighbouring Libya, occupying territory and boasting complex chains of command, they have been reduced to isolated attacks in Tunisia. Today’s assault appears relatively crude, for example, when compared with elaborate ambushes against heavily armed forces which jihadi groups were able to mount in the Chaambi mountains up until last year.Although the news from Sousse is undoubtedly terrible, its very nature might actually reflect the relative weakness of violent groups in Tunisia, a country which emerged from the upheaval of the so-called Arab spring with a consensual government enjoying a democratic mandate. Whilst groups adhering to jihadist ideology operate freely in neighbouring Libya, occupying territory and boasting complex chains of command, they have been reduced to isolated attacks in Tunisia. Today’s assault appears relatively crude, for example, when compared with elaborate ambushes against heavily armed forces which jihadi groups were able to mount in the Chaambi mountains up until last year.
This is the case with isolated terror attacks anywhere in the world: whilst they pose an undeniable threat to individual safety, they belie weakness, more than strength, when they occur in the context of relative political stability. Since it is likely to be able to withstand tragedies like today, the future of the Tunisian state system remains hopeful.This is the case with isolated terror attacks anywhere in the world: whilst they pose an undeniable threat to individual safety, they belie weakness, more than strength, when they occur in the context of relative political stability. Since it is likely to be able to withstand tragedies like today, the future of the Tunisian state system remains hopeful.