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| Iranians optimistic about end to isolation, says new poll | Iranians optimistic about end to isolation, says new poll |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| While a majority of Iranians support a nuclear agreement with the US and the other P5+1 powers, high hopes for the immediate lifting of international sanctions may mitigate support for Hassan Rouhani’s government ahead of next year’s parliamentary election, a new public opinion poll indicates. | While a majority of Iranians support a nuclear agreement with the US and the other P5+1 powers, high hopes for the immediate lifting of international sanctions may mitigate support for Hassan Rouhani’s government ahead of next year’s parliamentary election, a new public opinion poll indicates. |
| Related: Iran nuclear talks: the long and winding road to a landmark agreement | Related: Iran nuclear talks: the long and winding road to a landmark agreement |
| Based on a telephone poll of 1,009 Iranians conducted 12-28 May for the University of Maryland’s Center for International and Security Studies by IranPoll.com and University of Tehran, a majority of Iranians supports a nuclear deal requiring their country to limit its centrifuges and nuclear stockpile for a number of years. They also accept more extensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency in return for the P5+1 accepting Iran to enrich uranium, lift economic sanctions, and expand nuclear cooperation with Iran. | |
| Some 57% of respondents agree with the current framework while only 15% were opposed and another 28% were undecided, but that support is tempered by expectations of speedy sanctions relief and economic recovery. | Some 57% of respondents agree with the current framework while only 15% were opposed and another 28% were undecided, but that support is tempered by expectations of speedy sanctions relief and economic recovery. |
| Of those polled, 63% of respondents believe the current understanding would lead the United States to lift all its sanctions on Iran, while 38% believe the P5+1 has agreed to lift the sanctions immediately. At least 53% say the nuclear deal would lower the unemployment rate and tangibly improve people’s standard of living in under a year. | Of those polled, 63% of respondents believe the current understanding would lead the United States to lift all its sanctions on Iran, while 38% believe the P5+1 has agreed to lift the sanctions immediately. At least 53% say the nuclear deal would lower the unemployment rate and tangibly improve people’s standard of living in under a year. |
| During the last round of nuclear talks in Lausanne, at which all negotiating sides announced a framework agreement, United States and Iran officials issued contradicting statements indicating the two sides were still at odds over the scope and mechanisms of sanctions-lifting. As Iran’s scheduled February 2016 parliamentary election draws near, any snags over this aspect of the agreement could dampen public support for President Hassan Rouhani at a critical moment in domestic politics. | During the last round of nuclear talks in Lausanne, at which all negotiating sides announced a framework agreement, United States and Iran officials issued contradicting statements indicating the two sides were still at odds over the scope and mechanisms of sanctions-lifting. As Iran’s scheduled February 2016 parliamentary election draws near, any snags over this aspect of the agreement could dampen public support for President Hassan Rouhani at a critical moment in domestic politics. |
| Widespread support – but a threat of lethargy | Widespread support – but a threat of lethargy |
| Cross-tabulated poll results indicate that 62% of Iranian voters would prefer the new Majles, or lower house, to comprise Rouhani supporters, while 55% said they would prefer Rouhani’s critics. But responses to related questions about the current government’s policies indicate that the president stands to lose support for the nuclear negotiations the longer the sanctions lethargy drags on. | Cross-tabulated poll results indicate that 62% of Iranian voters would prefer the new Majles, or lower house, to comprise Rouhani supporters, while 55% said they would prefer Rouhani’s critics. But responses to related questions about the current government’s policies indicate that the president stands to lose support for the nuclear negotiations the longer the sanctions lethargy drags on. |
| Related: Hassan Rouhani: reformist insider who has ended Iran’s isolation | profile | Related: Hassan Rouhani: reformist insider who has ended Iran’s isolation | profile |
| Some 81% of polled Iranians said the Majles should have the right to kill the negotiations. (Interestingly, Iranian MPs voluntarily curtailed their own right to do so in a 20 June vote.) A majority - 51% – also say Iran should not agree to a deal unless the United States agrees to remove all of its sanctions. | |
| Also, while 62% said they would re-elect Rouhani as president in 2017, another 51% of respondents to this question said they would vote for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former president whom the domestic press has blamed for the nation’s economic mismanagement. | Also, while 62% said they would re-elect Rouhani as president in 2017, another 51% of respondents to this question said they would vote for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former president whom the domestic press has blamed for the nation’s economic mismanagement. |
| While most respondents gave Rouhani high marks for improving security and the country’s economic prospects, 53% said he was unsuccessful at reducing unemployment. | While most respondents gave Rouhani high marks for improving security and the country’s economic prospects, 53% said he was unsuccessful at reducing unemployment. |
| “On security and foreign policy Rouhani has high approval. Those who see Iran’s military power as an achievement have increased substantially – about four times during just few months,” says Amir Farmanesh from the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, who co-authored the study. | “On security and foreign policy Rouhani has high approval. Those who see Iran’s military power as an achievement have increased substantially – about four times during just few months,” says Amir Farmanesh from the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, who co-authored the study. |
| He adds that regional instability and the rise of the Islamic State west of Iran’s borders has contributed to this trend. “Naturally what is happening all around Iran should have made some people value the stability Iran has and count its military power as an achievement.” | He adds that regional instability and the rise of the Islamic State west of Iran’s borders has contributed to this trend. “Naturally what is happening all around Iran should have made some people value the stability Iran has and count its military power as an achievement.” |