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Greek crisis: Markets surge on hopes of last-minute deal - live updates Greek crisis: Markets surge on hopes of last-minute deal - live updates
(35 minutes later)
9.04am BST09:04
News of a fresh Greek proposal have had a “magical effect on the markets”, says Connor Campbell, financial analyst at SpreadEX.
The main reason behind the positivity is hope that this latest Greek proposal contains the much needed concessions the country’s creditors have been looking for; described as ‘a good basis for progress’, already these proposals have been received better than the usual ‘insulting’ attempts at reform.
Traders are now watching whether today’s series of meetings are a success. As our agenda explains, the ECB discusses Greek banks shortly, then Tsipras meets Lagarde, Draghi, Juncker and Djisselbloem, then finance ministers convene at the Eurogroup, and finally it’s over to EU leaders for their summit..
Campbell adds:
After a month of interminable claims and counterclaims from each side, there is a bit of excitement on the markets and the genuine semblance of optimism; now this sentiment just has to last the day.
8.59am BST08:59
Insiders in Brussels are making optimistic noises this morning. And that’s significant, as they have now had more than nine hours to digest the latest proposals from Greece:
Optimism spreading in Brussels. EU officials: "We´re not at the point where we should be, but we´ll reach it." "Greece is moving." #Greece
8.54am BST08:54
Journalists are poised in Greece ready for queues at the cash machines, but there’s no sign of panic:
Journalistes allemands attendant le bankrun. Courage à eux. #Grèce pic.twitter.com/tcc4Kx6XcP
8.50am BST08:50
Bruno Macaes, Portugal’s Secretary of State for Europe, says it’s vitally important to get a Greek deal soon.
He told Radio 4’s Today Programme that:
Time is running out and we need a fundamental solution to the problem
It would be “bad for the eurozone for a whole” if Greece left the single currency, Macaes said. It would also probably spark a “new commitment to integration”, to avoid other countries coming under fire.
Portugal was bailed out back in 2011, and Macaes says he’s “very confident” of avoiding a repeat:
Everything we have done in the last three years is to avoid being pulled back into this market turbulence.
8.43am BST08:43
If a final deal isn’t reached today, EU leaders have another opportunity later this week when they hold their next summit:
High expectations for today's last-minute #Greece summit. The only way Europe knows. Remember there's another one Friday if no deal tonight.
8.42am BST08:42
Here’s another sign of rising confidence that significant progress will be made at today’s meetings.
The interest rates (or yield) on Greek government has fallen sharply in early trading, showing traders see a lower risk of default.
The yield on two-year Greek debt has tumbled to 24.9%, down from 28.5% on Friday. That’s a really chunky move (but also means the bonds are seen as very risky).
10-year Greek bond yields are down by 1 percentage points, from 12.6% to 11.6%.
Greek 10y yield today! Somoeone knows something!!! pic.twitter.com/1O4SDYRqSi
Typically, a country is locked out of the markets when its 10-year bond yields hit 7%, so Greece has a long way to go yet....
8.29am BST08:298.29am BST08:29
Are the markets over-reacting? It certainly wouldn’t be the first time that shares have surged on hopes of a deal, only to fizzle out.Are the markets over-reacting? It certainly wouldn’t be the first time that shares have surged on hopes of a deal, only to fizzle out.
Investors are calculating that a) Greece’s latest proposals offer genuine prospects of a deal, and b) European leaders aren’t prepared to let the eurozone fragment.Investors are calculating that a) Greece’s latest proposals offer genuine prospects of a deal, and b) European leaders aren’t prepared to let the eurozone fragment.
Hey Eurozone, markets: we've been v confident and hopeful *many* times before, and look where we are now. Hold your horses (for now) #GreeceHey Eurozone, markets: we've been v confident and hopeful *many* times before, and look where we are now. Hold your horses (for now) #Greece
8.24am BST08:248.24am BST08:24
European markets are a sea of green this morning:European markets are a sea of green this morning:
Major European indices - FTSE100 and DAX - have jumped up to 1 week+ highs on hopes of this Greek deal.Major European indices - FTSE100 and DAX - have jumped up to 1 week+ highs on hopes of this Greek deal.
8.21am BST08:218.21am BST08:21
The key question is whether Greece has made sufficient concessions on pensions, says Frederik Ducrozet, economist at Credit Agricole.The key question is whether Greece has made sufficient concessions on pensions, says Frederik Ducrozet, economist at Credit Agricole.
*If* creditors are satisfied with Greek proposals on pensions, we should get the basis for a deal and no ELA cap.*If* creditors are satisfied with Greek proposals on pensions, we should get the basis for a deal and no ELA cap.
ELA is the emergency liquidity assistance provided by the European Central Bank to keep Greek banks functioning, now totalling €84bn.ELA is the emergency liquidity assistance provided by the European Central Bank to keep Greek banks functioning, now totalling €84bn.
8.13am BST08:138.13am BST08:13
There is “new hope of progress in Greek bailout negotiations” in the City today, says Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets, after Athens has presented new proposal to creditors late last night.There is “new hope of progress in Greek bailout negotiations” in the City today, says Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets, after Athens has presented new proposal to creditors late last night.
8.10am BST08:108.10am BST08:10
Germany’s DAX has leapt by 2.5%, as Frankfurt traders embrace optimism over Greece....Germany’s DAX has leapt by 2.5%, as Frankfurt traders embrace optimism over Greece....
8.04am BST08:048.04am BST08:04
European shares surge on Greek deal hopesEuropean shares surge on Greek deal hopes
European stock markets have surged that the start of trading, on hopes of a long-awaited deal on Greece today.European stock markets have surged that the start of trading, on hopes of a long-awaited deal on Greece today.
In London, the FTSE 100 has jumped by 72 points, or 1.1%, as investors welcome the news that Greece submitted new compromise proposals overnight.In London, the FTSE 100 has jumped by 72 points, or 1.1%, as investors welcome the news that Greece submitted new compromise proposals overnight.
In Paris, the French CAC leapt by 2.2% and the Italian market is up 1.8%.In Paris, the French CAC leapt by 2.2% and the Italian market is up 1.8%.
More to follow...More to follow...
8.00am BST08:008.00am BST08:00
From Brussels, my colleague Jennifer Rankin sums up the situation:From Brussels, my colleague Jennifer Rankin sums up the situation:
Greece has submitted 11th-hour concessions to its creditors ahead of a crucial day of talks aimed at preventing it from crashing out of the eurozone.Greece has submitted 11th-hour concessions to its creditors ahead of a crucial day of talks aimed at preventing it from crashing out of the eurozone.
Its proposal followed a hectic round of telephone diplomacy on Sunday between Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, the French president, Francois Hollande, and the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker.Its proposal followed a hectic round of telephone diplomacy on Sunday between Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, the French president, Francois Hollande, and the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker.
Juncker’s head of cabinet, Martin Selmayr, said the Athens proposal offered “a good basis for progress”, though he described the negotiations as a “forceps delivery”, underscoring the exertions to prevent Greece leaving the eurozone.Juncker’s head of cabinet, Martin Selmayr, said the Athens proposal offered “a good basis for progress”, though he described the negotiations as a “forceps delivery”, underscoring the exertions to prevent Greece leaving the eurozone.
It was not immediately clear how far the Greek plan met its creditors’ demands for spending cuts and welfare reforms.It was not immediately clear how far the Greek plan met its creditors’ demands for spending cuts and welfare reforms.
Related: Greek debt crisis: Tsipras concessions welcomed as 'good basis for progress'Related: Greek debt crisis: Tsipras concessions welcomed as 'good basis for progress'
7.51am BST07:517.51am BST07:51
City traders are predicting that the German stock market will leap this morning, on hopes of a breakthrough today....City traders are predicting that the German stock market will leap this morning, on hopes of a breakthrough today....
And German Dax forecast +290 points (!!) at 11,330, on Greek rumours.And German Dax forecast +290 points (!!) at 11,330, on Greek rumours.
7.45am BST07:457.45am BST07:45
Moscovici: Convinced we'll get a dealMoscovici: Convinced we'll get a deal
EU economic commissioner Pierre Moscovici has declared that a solution will be found to tackle the Greek crisis, after Athens submitted new proposals late last night.EU economic commissioner Pierre Moscovici has declared that a solution will be found to tackle the Greek crisis, after Athens submitted new proposals late last night.
Speaking on Europe 1 radio, Moscovici said today is a “decisive, vital” day for Greece, adding:Speaking on Europe 1 radio, Moscovici said today is a “decisive, vital” day for Greece, adding:
We’ll be having meetings with [Greek PM Alexis] Tsipras which, I hope and I am convinced, will allow us to reach an agreement this evening”.We’ll be having meetings with [Greek PM Alexis] Tsipras which, I hope and I am convinced, will allow us to reach an agreement this evening”.
“We are moving in the right direction, we have solid ground for a deal, we just have to consolidate that today ...“We are moving in the right direction, we have solid ground for a deal, we just have to consolidate that today ...
I think that the political will of everyone to preserve the euro, this common good, to ensure that this single currency is irreversible, will win the day.”I think that the political will of everyone to preserve the euro, this common good, to ensure that this single currency is irreversible, will win the day.”
(thanks to Reuters for the quotes)(thanks to Reuters for the quotes)
"Journée décisive, vitale. Je pense que la volonté de tous de préserver l'euro l'emportera" @pierremoscovici #E1matin pic.twitter.com/7XUJrxcrYh"Journée décisive, vitale. Je pense que la volonté de tous de préserver l'euro l'emportera" @pierremoscovici #E1matin pic.twitter.com/7XUJrxcrYh
He’s just tweeted this message too:He’s just tweeted this message too:
La volonté politique de tous est de préserver l'#Euro, ce bien commun irréversible #Grèce @Europe1La volonté politique de tous est de préserver l'#Euro, ce bien commun irréversible #Grèce @Europe1
Updated at 7.54am BSTUpdated at 7.54am BST
7.31am BST07:317.31am BST07:31
Optimism is building that we will, finally, see meaningful progress today.Optimism is building that we will, finally, see meaningful progress today.
As Luxembourg’s foreign minister Jean Asselborn told Germany’s Deutschlandfunk radio a few minutes ago:As Luxembourg’s foreign minister Jean Asselborn told Germany’s Deutschlandfunk radio a few minutes ago:
“There will be a lurch forward.”“There will be a lurch forward.”
7.24am BST07:247.24am BST07:24
The Agenda: Lots of meetingsThe Agenda: Lots of meetings
Today will be packed with top level meetings. Here’s the running order:Today will be packed with top level meetings. Here’s the running order:
Updated at 7.39am BSTUpdated at 7.39am BST
7.15am BST07:157.15am BST07:15
Introduction: Greece's future in the balanceIntroduction: Greece's future in the balance
Good morning.Good morning.
Hope you all had a relaxing weekend, because today should be as dramatic as anything we’ve seen since the eurozone crisis began over five years ago.Hope you all had a relaxing weekend, because today should be as dramatic as anything we’ve seen since the eurozone crisis began over five years ago.
In the coming hours, the most powerful politicians and officials in Europe will hold a series of emergency meetings that will, most likely, determine the future of both Greece and the wider eurozone.In the coming hours, the most powerful politicians and officials in Europe will hold a series of emergency meetings that will, most likely, determine the future of both Greece and the wider eurozone.
This really could be the last possible chance to reach a deal to avert Greece defaulting, possible exiting the eurozone, and potentially giving the financial markets and the world economy a seismic jolt.This really could be the last possible chance to reach a deal to avert Greece defaulting, possible exiting the eurozone, and potentially giving the financial markets and the world economy a seismic jolt.
The goal? Hammering out an agreement to finally unlock bailout funds for Greece, which have been locked away for months as its government has tussled with the eurozone.The goal? Hammering out an agreement to finally unlock bailout funds for Greece, which have been locked away for months as its government has tussled with the eurozone.
That deadlock was broken late last night, when the Greek government submitted new proposals to the heads of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission.That deadlock was broken late last night, when the Greek government submitted new proposals to the heads of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission.
New Greek proposal received by @JunckerEU, @Lagarde, @ecb. Good basis for progress at tomorrow's EuroSummit. In German: "eine Zangengeburt".New Greek proposal received by @JunckerEU, @Lagarde, @ecb. Good basis for progress at tomorrow's EuroSummit. In German: "eine Zangengeburt".
Eine Zangengeburt means forceps delivery, by the way.....Eine Zangengeburt means forceps delivery, by the way.....
@GreekAnalyst @MartinSelmayr @JunckerEU @Lagarde @ecb not so much forceps delivery as Caesarian section, I'd say. But to what end?@GreekAnalyst @MartinSelmayr @JunckerEU @Lagarde @ecb not so much forceps delivery as Caesarian section, I'd say. But to what end?
Those proposals will be scrutinised this morning, when Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, meets IMF chief Christine Lagarde, ECB president Mario Draghi, EC president Jean-Claude Juncker, and Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem (chair of the eurozone finance ministers).Those proposals will be scrutinised this morning, when Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, meets IMF chief Christine Lagarde, ECB president Mario Draghi, EC president Jean-Claude Juncker, and Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem (chair of the eurozone finance ministers).
That will be followed by a eurogroup meeting (where details of a deal could be thrashed out), and then an EU leaders summit tonight.That will be followed by a eurogroup meeting (where details of a deal could be thrashed out), and then an EU leaders summit tonight.
So, what might the deal be?So, what might the deal be?
Greece’s creditors are prepared to sign up for a short-term deal to extend the existing bailout by another six months, injecting up to €18bn of loans into the cash-starved Greek economy. They could also make some kind of pledge about debt restructuring, as part of a third bailout.Greece’s creditors are prepared to sign up for a short-term deal to extend the existing bailout by another six months, injecting up to €18bn of loans into the cash-starved Greek economy. They could also make some kind of pledge about debt restructuring, as part of a third bailout.
As my colleague Ian Traynor wrote last night:As my colleague Ian Traynor wrote last night:
Brussels sources also signalled moves to address Tsipras’s key demand – that the creditors need to offer debt relief to Greece.Brussels sources also signalled moves to address Tsipras’s key demand – that the creditors need to offer debt relief to Greece.
Some form of debt restructuring would be promised to Athens in the future, but it would come with strings attached and not as part of the current bailout package, they said.Some form of debt restructuring would be promised to Athens in the future, but it would come with strings attached and not as part of the current bailout package, they said.
Related: Greek debt crisis: Tsipras concessions welcomed as 'good basis for progress'Related: Greek debt crisis: Tsipras concessions welcomed as 'good basis for progress'
That package expires in just nine days time; so failure today could trigger the slide towards capital controls, given Greece owes €1.6bn to the IMF on 30 June as well.That package expires in just nine days time; so failure today could trigger the slide towards capital controls, given Greece owes €1.6bn to the IMF on 30 June as well.
But Greece will need to persuade its creditors that it is now offering the ‘credible, concrete’ proposals demanded for months. That means accepting tougher budget surplus targets, savings on pensions, VAT rates and labour market reforms – areas where progress have been stymied for months.But Greece will need to persuade its creditors that it is now offering the ‘credible, concrete’ proposals demanded for months. That means accepting tougher budget surplus targets, savings on pensions, VAT rates and labour market reforms – areas where progress have been stymied for months.
But there’s nothing like a finally-final deadline to get things moving. And there was frenzied activity over the weekend, with world leaders holding phone calls and Alexis Tsipras convening a cabinet meeting to discuss strategy.But there’s nothing like a finally-final deadline to get things moving. And there was frenzied activity over the weekend, with world leaders holding phone calls and Alexis Tsipras convening a cabinet meeting to discuss strategy.
Negotiators in Brussels worked late into the night too -- waiting for that crucial breakthroughNegotiators in Brussels worked late into the night too -- waiting for that crucial breakthrough
Midsummer's Night Celebration in Brussels' EU Commission. #Greece pic.twitter.com/bIFl3Yd1G4Midsummer's Night Celebration in Brussels' EU Commission. #Greece pic.twitter.com/bIFl3Yd1G4
And there were anti-austerity, pro-government protests in Athens last night too:And there were anti-austerity, pro-government protests in Athens last night too:
But will Greece’s banks cope?But will Greece’s banks cope?
Greek bankers are bracing for a difficult day. Although a bank run has been avoided, deposits have been exiting the system at a worrying levels.Greek bankers are bracing for a difficult day. Although a bank run has been avoided, deposits have been exiting the system at a worrying levels.
According to Reuters, around €1bn of orders have already been placed over the weekend to be carried out today, on top of €4.2bn withdrawn last week.According to Reuters, around €1bn of orders have already been placed over the weekend to be carried out today, on top of €4.2bn withdrawn last week.
But the news that Greece has submitted new proposals might ensure relative calm in Greece.But the news that Greece has submitted new proposals might ensure relative calm in Greece.
We’ll be tracking all the developments as usual, with correspondents in Brussels and Athens covering what should be a dramatic day.We’ll be tracking all the developments as usual, with correspondents in Brussels and Athens covering what should be a dramatic day.
Updated at 7.18am BSTUpdated at 7.18am BST