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| Hong Kong Election Plan Appears Unlikely to Win Lawmakers’ Approval | Hong Kong Election Plan Appears Unlikely to Win Lawmakers’ Approval |
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| HONG KONG — The issue of how to choose Hong Kong’s chief executive is once again threatening to convulse the city’s politics. | HONG KONG — The issue of how to choose Hong Kong’s chief executive is once again threatening to convulse the city’s politics. |
| Barring a last-minute change of heart, lawmakers here are set to decide this week that, rather than accept an election plan in which all candidates must effectively be approved by Beijing, they would rather have no direct election at all. | Barring a last-minute change of heart, lawmakers here are set to decide this week that, rather than accept an election plan in which all candidates must effectively be approved by Beijing, they would rather have no direct election at all. |
| The city erupted in mass demonstrations about nine months ago when the plan was first outlined. Activists argued that it fell far short of the democratic system the city was promised when Britain handed Hong Kong back to China in 1997. Now a formal bill is up for a vote before the city’s 70-member Legislative Council, where enough lawmakers have declared opposition to the plan to deny it the required two-thirds majority to pass. | |
| A rejection would leave the current system in place, with the chief executive chosen by a committee of about 1,200 members of Hong Kong’s political and economic elite, rather than by the city’s voters. | A rejection would leave the current system in place, with the chief executive chosen by a committee of about 1,200 members of Hong Kong’s political and economic elite, rather than by the city’s voters. |
| The vote this week bookends the most momentous year in Hong Kong politics since China regained sovereignty under a “one country, two systems” arrangement that allows the city’s 7.2 million residents to largely run their own affairs. Hong Kong retained the legal system and civil liberties it inherited from Britain, while flying the flag of the People’s Republic of China. | The vote this week bookends the most momentous year in Hong Kong politics since China regained sovereignty under a “one country, two systems” arrangement that allows the city’s 7.2 million residents to largely run their own affairs. Hong Kong retained the legal system and civil liberties it inherited from Britain, while flying the flag of the People’s Republic of China. |
| Rejection of the election proposal, which follows strict guidelines laid down by Beijing, would be a blow to the Hong Kong government. But it also underscores how the city’s democracy advocates have failed to wrest any substantive concessions from Beijing despite months of protests. The Chinese government rejected their calls to allow voters to have a wider choice of candidates. | Rejection of the election proposal, which follows strict guidelines laid down by Beijing, would be a blow to the Hong Kong government. But it also underscores how the city’s democracy advocates have failed to wrest any substantive concessions from Beijing despite months of protests. The Chinese government rejected their calls to allow voters to have a wider choice of candidates. |
| That leaves the pro-democracy camp with the grim task of continuing to campaign for years, if not decades, to come for a system that would meet global standards for democratic elections. They face a Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping that says free elections and civil liberties like press freedom are foreign influences that threaten the Communist Party’s 65-year hold on power in China. | That leaves the pro-democracy camp with the grim task of continuing to campaign for years, if not decades, to come for a system that would meet global standards for democratic elections. They face a Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping that says free elections and civil liberties like press freedom are foreign influences that threaten the Communist Party’s 65-year hold on power in China. |
| “We just have to continue with the struggle,” Emily Lau, a lawmaker who leads the Democratic Party and plans to vote against the measure, said by telephone. “I know some young people, they are very unhappy, they are impatient, and they say that, ‘Well, you have tried all this for so many years, and it’s not yielded any result.’ I say, ‘O.K. What do you think we should do? I’m not here to wage a revolution.’ ” | “We just have to continue with the struggle,” Emily Lau, a lawmaker who leads the Democratic Party and plans to vote against the measure, said by telephone. “I know some young people, they are very unhappy, they are impatient, and they say that, ‘Well, you have tried all this for so many years, and it’s not yielded any result.’ I say, ‘O.K. What do you think we should do? I’m not here to wage a revolution.’ ” |
| Supporters of the election proposal say it is a big improvement over the current system because it at least gives Hong Kong’s people the opportunity to choose among multiple candidates. Direct elections will give the post of chief executive more legitimacy, they say. And even if the names on the ballot will be restricted to a narrow range of people acceptable to Beijing, they will still need to appeal to a broad segment of the electorate in order to win. | Supporters of the election proposal say it is a big improvement over the current system because it at least gives Hong Kong’s people the opportunity to choose among multiple candidates. Direct elections will give the post of chief executive more legitimacy, they say. And even if the names on the ballot will be restricted to a narrow range of people acceptable to Beijing, they will still need to appeal to a broad segment of the electorate in order to win. |
| Backers of the measure, including the current chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, say Hong Kong should “pocket” the proposal now — in other words, make it law — and then work to improve it. On Tuesday, Chinese officials were making it clear that changes to the election system were possible. | Backers of the measure, including the current chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, say Hong Kong should “pocket” the proposal now — in other words, make it law — and then work to improve it. On Tuesday, Chinese officials were making it clear that changes to the election system were possible. |
| “The Hong Kong government’s proposal is democratic, open, fair and just,” Song Ru’an, a Hong Kong-based official with the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told reporters, adding that no system “would remain unchanged forever.” | “The Hong Kong government’s proposal is democratic, open, fair and just,” Song Ru’an, a Hong Kong-based official with the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told reporters, adding that no system “would remain unchanged forever.” |
| Hong Kong adults favor the measure by a narrow margin of 45 percent in favor to 40 percent opposed, according to a poll conducted by a consortium of Hong Kong universities from June 11 to June 15. The margin of sampling error in the survey is plus or minus three percentage points. At least 200 people were interviewed each day in the poll, which has tracked support for the proposal for the past two months. | Hong Kong adults favor the measure by a narrow margin of 45 percent in favor to 40 percent opposed, according to a poll conducted by a consortium of Hong Kong universities from June 11 to June 15. The margin of sampling error in the survey is plus or minus three percentage points. At least 200 people were interviewed each day in the poll, which has tracked support for the proposal for the past two months. |
| Under British colonial rule, Hong Kong residents enjoyed rights unavailable on the mainland, but the colonial governor was appointed by London. Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, which has governed the territory since 1997, calls for the system to evolve eventually into one in which voters elect the chief executive from among candidates selected by a “broadly representative nominating committee.” The national government in Beijing would have final veto power over anyone the voters chose, as it does now. The National People’s Congress set a timeline for that transition in 2007, saying the chief executive could be chosen by universal suffrage beginning with an election in 2017. | Under British colonial rule, Hong Kong residents enjoyed rights unavailable on the mainland, but the colonial governor was appointed by London. Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, which has governed the territory since 1997, calls for the system to evolve eventually into one in which voters elect the chief executive from among candidates selected by a “broadly representative nominating committee.” The national government in Beijing would have final veto power over anyone the voters chose, as it does now. The National People’s Congress set a timeline for that transition in 2007, saying the chief executive could be chosen by universal suffrage beginning with an election in 2017. |
| But the National People’s Congress must sign off on any changes to that mini-constitution, known as the Basic Law, and the congress made clear last August that it would not accept a system that allowed candidates to run who were deemed unfriendly to Beijing. | But the National People’s Congress must sign off on any changes to that mini-constitution, known as the Basic Law, and the congress made clear last August that it would not accept a system that allowed candidates to run who were deemed unfriendly to Beijing. |
| “It is patently clear they want a 100 percent risk-free election,” Anson Chan, who served as Hong Kong’s No. 2 official under the last colonial administration and in the first government under Chinese sovereignty, said by telephone. | “It is patently clear they want a 100 percent risk-free election,” Anson Chan, who served as Hong Kong’s No. 2 official under the last colonial administration and in the first government under Chinese sovereignty, said by telephone. |
| Beijing’s suspicious view of the pro-democracy camp in Hong Kong was evident during last year’s protests, when editorial after editorial in the Communist Party-controlled publications warned of “foreign forces” behind the protests. People’s Daily, the party’s official mouthpiece, said in an editorial last week that the election proposal was designed to exclude from Hong Kong’s political scene anyone who resists China’s rule of the territory. | Beijing’s suspicious view of the pro-democracy camp in Hong Kong was evident during last year’s protests, when editorial after editorial in the Communist Party-controlled publications warned of “foreign forces” behind the protests. People’s Daily, the party’s official mouthpiece, said in an editorial last week that the election proposal was designed to exclude from Hong Kong’s political scene anyone who resists China’s rule of the territory. |
| On Tuesday, Mr. Leung told reporters that the acts of civil disobedience seen during last year’s protests may lead some people to violence. He spoke after the arrest of 10 people on Sunday and Monday who were accused of conspiring to manufacture explosives. The police said that at least one was a member of a “local radical organization.” | On Tuesday, Mr. Leung told reporters that the acts of civil disobedience seen during last year’s protests may lead some people to violence. He spoke after the arrest of 10 people on Sunday and Monday who were accused of conspiring to manufacture explosives. The police said that at least one was a member of a “local radical organization.” |
| Despite the antagonism between Mr. Leung and opponents of the government proposal, including Ms. Lau and Mrs. Chan, all three agreed on one point: After the vote, Hong Kong’s politicians should try to work with one another to tackle pressing economic and social issues in the city, including a rising gap between rich and poor. | Despite the antagonism between Mr. Leung and opponents of the government proposal, including Ms. Lau and Mrs. Chan, all three agreed on one point: After the vote, Hong Kong’s politicians should try to work with one another to tackle pressing economic and social issues in the city, including a rising gap between rich and poor. |
| Some democracy advocates are looking beyond 2017 to the next chief executive election, set for 2022, as the time to push Beijing for more democratic guidelines. Mr. Xi would be due to to step down as the Communist Party’s top leader that year. | Some democracy advocates are looking beyond 2017 to the next chief executive election, set for 2022, as the time to push Beijing for more democratic guidelines. Mr. Xi would be due to to step down as the Communist Party’s top leader that year. |
| But Joshua Wong, the student leader who became the public face of last year’s protest movement, said on Tuesday that he now believed that the Communist government in Beijing would never countenance free elections in Hong Kong. | But Joshua Wong, the student leader who became the public face of last year’s protest movement, said on Tuesday that he now believed that the Communist government in Beijing would never countenance free elections in Hong Kong. |
| Mr. Wong was born the year before Britain handed Hong Kong over, and he will be 50 when its special status under the “one country, two systems” formula is scheduled to expire in 2047. He said that the real challenge now is for young people to work to create a system that will preserve Hong Kong’s rights after that date. | Mr. Wong was born the year before Britain handed Hong Kong over, and he will be 50 when its special status under the “one country, two systems” formula is scheduled to expire in 2047. He said that the real challenge now is for young people to work to create a system that will preserve Hong Kong’s rights after that date. |
| “Democracy does not come overnight,” Mr. Wong said. | “Democracy does not come overnight,” Mr. Wong said. |