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| Hong Kong Election Plan Appears Unlikely to Win Lawmakers’ Approval | Hong Kong Election Plan Appears Unlikely to Win Lawmakers’ Approval |
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| HONG KONG — Six months after the protests that paralyzed parts of Hong Kong for weeks, lawmakers here are set to reject the proposal that triggered the demonstrations, intending to vote down a plan vetted in Beijing that would change the way this former British colony selects its top official. | |
| Barring last-minute changes of heart by a handful of representatives, backers and opponents alike say the local government lacks the votes to secure passage of the proposal, which would allow all of Hong Kong’s registered voters to pick the chief executive from a slate of up to three candidates chosen by a panel dominated by Beijing loyalists. | Barring last-minute changes of heart by a handful of representatives, backers and opponents alike say the local government lacks the votes to secure passage of the proposal, which would allow all of Hong Kong’s registered voters to pick the chief executive from a slate of up to three candidates chosen by a panel dominated by Beijing loyalists. |
| If the measure is defeated, Hong Kong will keep its current system, in which a small, elite group of about 1,200 selects the chief executive. Any future efforts to expand the franchise would be put in limbo. | If the measure is defeated, Hong Kong will keep its current system, in which a small, elite group of about 1,200 selects the chief executive. Any future efforts to expand the franchise would be put in limbo. |
| The vote this week bookends the most momentous year in Hong Kong politics since China regained sovereignty in 1997, under the “one country, two systems” arrangement that allows the city’s 7.2 million residents to largely run their own affairs, keeping their British-inherited legal system and civil liberties while flying the flag of the People’s Republic of China. | The vote this week bookends the most momentous year in Hong Kong politics since China regained sovereignty in 1997, under the “one country, two systems” arrangement that allows the city’s 7.2 million residents to largely run their own affairs, keeping their British-inherited legal system and civil liberties while flying the flag of the People’s Republic of China. |
| Opposition to the election proposal, which follows strict guidelines laid down last August by China’s Communist Party-controlled National People’s Congress, exploded onto Hong Kong’s streets late last year, with tens of thousands of demonstrators staging sit-in protests that shut down some major arteries in Asia’s most important financial hub for more than two months. | Opposition to the election proposal, which follows strict guidelines laid down last August by China’s Communist Party-controlled National People’s Congress, exploded onto Hong Kong’s streets late last year, with tens of thousands of demonstrators staging sit-in protests that shut down some major arteries in Asia’s most important financial hub for more than two months. |
| To pass, the measure must garner two-thirds support from the 70 members of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, which will begin debating the proposal on Wednesday. But more than a third of the lawmakers, many of whom took part in the protests last year, plan to vote against it — enough to block its passage. They say the Beijing-backed measure would result in fake democracy that gives voters no real choice. | To pass, the measure must garner two-thirds support from the 70 members of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, which will begin debating the proposal on Wednesday. But more than a third of the lawmakers, many of whom took part in the protests last year, plan to vote against it — enough to block its passage. They say the Beijing-backed measure would result in fake democracy that gives voters no real choice. |
| While rejection of the proposal would be a blow to the Hong Kong government, it also underscores democracy advocates’ failure to wrest any substantive concession from Beijing. The Chinese government rejected their calls to allow voters to have a wider choice of candidates. | While rejection of the proposal would be a blow to the Hong Kong government, it also underscores democracy advocates’ failure to wrest any substantive concession from Beijing. The Chinese government rejected their calls to allow voters to have a wider choice of candidates. |
| That leaves the pro-democracy camp with the grim task of campaigning for years, if not decades, for a system that meets global standards for democratic elections. And they face a Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping that says free elections and civil liberties like press freedom are foreign influences that threaten the Communist Party’s 65-year hold on power in China. | That leaves the pro-democracy camp with the grim task of campaigning for years, if not decades, for a system that meets global standards for democratic elections. And they face a Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping that says free elections and civil liberties like press freedom are foreign influences that threaten the Communist Party’s 65-year hold on power in China. |
| “We just have to continue with the struggle,” Emily Lau, a lawmaker who heads the Democratic Party and who plans to vote against the measure, said by telephone. “I know some young people, they are very unhappy, they are impatient, and they say that, ‘Well, you have tried all this for so many years, and it’s not yielded any result.’ I say, ‘O.K. What do you think we should do? I’m not here to wage a revolution.’” | “We just have to continue with the struggle,” Emily Lau, a lawmaker who heads the Democratic Party and who plans to vote against the measure, said by telephone. “I know some young people, they are very unhappy, they are impatient, and they say that, ‘Well, you have tried all this for so many years, and it’s not yielded any result.’ I say, ‘O.K. What do you think we should do? I’m not here to wage a revolution.’” |
| Supporters of the election proposal say that giving Hong Kong’s people the right to vote for candidates is a big improvement over the current system. Elections will give the post of chief executive more legitimacy, they say, and the winning candidate, even if he or she comes from a narrow range of people, would still need to appeal to a broad swath of the electorate in order to win. | Supporters of the election proposal say that giving Hong Kong’s people the right to vote for candidates is a big improvement over the current system. Elections will give the post of chief executive more legitimacy, they say, and the winning candidate, even if he or she comes from a narrow range of people, would still need to appeal to a broad swath of the electorate in order to win. |
| Backers of the measure, including the current chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, say Hong Kong should “pocket” the proposal now — make it law — and work to improve it in the future. On Tuesday, Chinese officials were making it clear that future changes to the election system were possible. | Backers of the measure, including the current chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, say Hong Kong should “pocket” the proposal now — make it law — and work to improve it in the future. On Tuesday, Chinese officials were making it clear that future changes to the election system were possible. |
| “The Hong Kong government’s proposal is democratic, open, fair and just,” Song Ru’an, a Hong Kong-based official with the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told reporters, adding that no system “would remain unchanged forever.” | “The Hong Kong government’s proposal is democratic, open, fair and just,” Song Ru’an, a Hong Kong-based official with the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told reporters, adding that no system “would remain unchanged forever.” |
| A slim majority of Hong Kong adults support the measure, according to a poll conducted by a consortium of Hong Kong universities from June 11 to 15. Some 45 percent of those polled backed the government’s proposal, with 40 percent opposed. The margin of sampling error on the survey is plus or minus three percentage points. At least 200 people were polled each day in the poll, which has tracked support for the proposal for the past two months. | A slim majority of Hong Kong adults support the measure, according to a poll conducted by a consortium of Hong Kong universities from June 11 to 15. Some 45 percent of those polled backed the government’s proposal, with 40 percent opposed. The margin of sampling error on the survey is plus or minus three percentage points. At least 200 people were polled each day in the poll, which has tracked support for the proposal for the past two months. |
| Under British colonial rule, Hong Kong residents enjoyed rights unavailable on the mainland. But London appointed the colonial governor. Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, which has governed the territory since 1997, says the system is to eventually evolve into one where the people vote for the chief executive, from among candidates selected by a “broadly representative nominating committee.” Beijing, as it does now, would have final veto power over anyone the Hong Kong people elected. In 2007, China’s National People’s Congress set a timeline for that transition, saying the chief executive could be chosen by universal suffrage in the 2017 election. | Under British colonial rule, Hong Kong residents enjoyed rights unavailable on the mainland. But London appointed the colonial governor. Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, which has governed the territory since 1997, says the system is to eventually evolve into one where the people vote for the chief executive, from among candidates selected by a “broadly representative nominating committee.” Beijing, as it does now, would have final veto power over anyone the Hong Kong people elected. In 2007, China’s National People’s Congress set a timeline for that transition, saying the chief executive could be chosen by universal suffrage in the 2017 election. |
| But the National People’s Congress must sign off on any changes to that mini-constitution, called the Basic Law, and it made clear last August that a system that allowed candidates deemed unfriendly to Beijing was not acceptable. | But the National People’s Congress must sign off on any changes to that mini-constitution, called the Basic Law, and it made clear last August that a system that allowed candidates deemed unfriendly to Beijing was not acceptable. |
| “It is patently clear they want a 100 percent risk-free election,” Anson Chan, who served as Hong Kong’s No. 2 official under the last colonial administration as well as in the first government under Chinese sovereignty, said by telephone. | “It is patently clear they want a 100 percent risk-free election,” Anson Chan, who served as Hong Kong’s No. 2 official under the last colonial administration as well as in the first government under Chinese sovereignty, said by telephone. |
| Beijing’s suspicious view of the pro-democracy camp in Hong Kong was evident during last year’s protests, when editorial after editorial in the Communist Party-controlled publications warned of “foreign forces” behind the protests. People’s Daily, the party’s official mouthpiece, said in an editorial last week that the election proposal was designed to exclude people who resist China’s rule from Hong Kong’s political scene. | Beijing’s suspicious view of the pro-democracy camp in Hong Kong was evident during last year’s protests, when editorial after editorial in the Communist Party-controlled publications warned of “foreign forces” behind the protests. People’s Daily, the party’s official mouthpiece, said in an editorial last week that the election proposal was designed to exclude people who resist China’s rule from Hong Kong’s political scene. |
| On Tuesday, Mr. Leung told reporters that the acts of civil disobedience seen during last year’s protests may lead some people to violence. He spoke following the arrest of 10 people on Sunday and Monday who were accused of conspiring to manufacture explosives. The police said that at least one was a member of a “local radical organization.” | On Tuesday, Mr. Leung told reporters that the acts of civil disobedience seen during last year’s protests may lead some people to violence. He spoke following the arrest of 10 people on Sunday and Monday who were accused of conspiring to manufacture explosives. The police said that at least one was a member of a “local radical organization.” |
| Despite the antagonism between Mr. Leung and opponents of the government proposal, including Ms. Lau and Mrs. Chan, all three agreed on one point: Following the vote, Hong Kong’s politicians should try to work with one another to tackle pressing economic and social issues in the city, including a rising gap between rich and poor. | Despite the antagonism between Mr. Leung and opponents of the government proposal, including Ms. Lau and Mrs. Chan, all three agreed on one point: Following the vote, Hong Kong’s politicians should try to work with one another to tackle pressing economic and social issues in the city, including a rising gap between rich and poor. |
| Some democracy advocates are looking beyond the 2017 chief executive election to the next one, set for 2022, to push Beijing for more acceptable guidelines. That is the year Mr. Xi is set to step down as the Communist Party’s top leader. | Some democracy advocates are looking beyond the 2017 chief executive election to the next one, set for 2022, to push Beijing for more acceptable guidelines. That is the year Mr. Xi is set to step down as the Communist Party’s top leader. |
| But Joshua Wong, the student leader who became the public face of last year’s protest movement, said Tuesday that he now believes the Communist government in Beijing will never countenance free elections in Hong Kong. | But Joshua Wong, the student leader who became the public face of last year’s protest movement, said Tuesday that he now believes the Communist government in Beijing will never countenance free elections in Hong Kong. |
| Mr. Wong, who will be 50 years old in 2047, the year Hong Kong’s special status under the “one country, two systems” formula comes to an end, says the real challenge now is for young people to work to create a system that preserves Hong Kong’s rights after that date. | Mr. Wong, who will be 50 years old in 2047, the year Hong Kong’s special status under the “one country, two systems” formula comes to an end, says the real challenge now is for young people to work to create a system that preserves Hong Kong’s rights after that date. |
| “Democracy does not come overnight,” Mr. Wong said. | “Democracy does not come overnight,” Mr. Wong said. |