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| What will Hong Kong's political reform vote mean? | What will Hong Kong's political reform vote mean? |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| After 18 months of protest and debate, lawmakers in Hong Kong are to vote on a Beijing-backed plan for political reform that opponents have condemned as “fake democracy”. | After 18 months of protest and debate, lawmakers in Hong Kong are to vote on a Beijing-backed plan for political reform that opponents have condemned as “fake democracy”. |
| What is at stake? | What is at stake? |
| On Wednesday members of Hong Kong’s parliament – better known as the legislative council or legco – will debate and then vote on a political reform package that would change the way in which the former colony’s leader is chosen. | On Wednesday members of Hong Kong’s parliament – better known as the legislative council or legco – will debate and then vote on a political reform package that would change the way in which the former colony’s leader is chosen. |
| Since Hong Kong returned to Chinese hands in 1997, its mayor-like chief executive has been chosen by a 1,200-strong “election committee” whose members are largely pro-Beijing. | Since Hong Kong returned to Chinese hands in 1997, its mayor-like chief executive has been chosen by a 1,200-strong “election committee” whose members are largely pro-Beijing. |
| The proposal now being put forward by Chinese officials would allow Hong Kong’s citizens to vote for their leader for the first time, something Beijing says proves it honoured a commitment to bring universal suffrage to the former colony. | The proposal now being put forward by Chinese officials would allow Hong Kong’s citizens to vote for their leader for the first time, something Beijing says proves it honoured a commitment to bring universal suffrage to the former colony. |
| “It is a big leap in our democratic development,” Holden Chow, a pro-Beijing lawmaker, told the New York Times. | “It is a big leap in our democratic development,” Holden Chow, a pro-Beijing lawmaker, told the New York Times. |
| However, pro-democracy activists and lawmakers say the Communist party’s plan is nothing but “fake democracy”. Under the new rules voters would only be able to cast ballots for two or three candidates who had been screened by a “nominating committee” that is likely to be heavily stacked with Communist party loyalists. That would give Beijing effective control over who can and cannot run for office. | However, pro-democracy activists and lawmakers say the Communist party’s plan is nothing but “fake democracy”. Under the new rules voters would only be able to cast ballots for two or three candidates who had been screened by a “nominating committee” that is likely to be heavily stacked with Communist party loyalists. That would give Beijing effective control over who can and cannot run for office. |
| Beijing’s manoeuvrings showed “Hong Kong citizens could not believe the promise made by the Communist party of China any more”, said Nathan Law, a prominent student leader. “The central government’s credibility has dropped to zero.” | |
| When will the vote take place? | When will the vote take place? |
| Hong Kong’s government will put the reform package to the territory’s 70-strong parliament on Wednesday with a vote likely to take place on Thursday or Friday. For the proposals to go through two-thirds, or 47, of those lawmakers must vote for it. | Hong Kong’s government will put the reform package to the territory’s 70-strong parliament on Wednesday with a vote likely to take place on Thursday or Friday. For the proposals to go through two-thirds, or 47, of those lawmakers must vote for it. |
| Recent polls suggest Hong Kong’s 7 million residents are more or less evenly split over the proposals. | Recent polls suggest Hong Kong’s 7 million residents are more or less evenly split over the proposals. |
| Will the proposals get through? | Will the proposals get through? |
| On the eve of the vote, senior Chinese officials are privately confident that their reforms will be approved, Reuters reported last week. | On the eve of the vote, senior Chinese officials are privately confident that their reforms will be approved, Reuters reported last week. |
| However, the general consensus is that they will not be passed. Hong Kong’s 27 pro-democracy lawmakers have publicly vowed to vote against the package. It can only be approved if at least four of them have a last-minute change of heart. | However, the general consensus is that they will not be passed. Hong Kong’s 27 pro-democracy lawmakers have publicly vowed to vote against the package. It can only be approved if at least four of them have a last-minute change of heart. |
| “The question is: are really these four or five local moderates or pan-democrats going to be able to hold the line?” said Suzanne Pepper, a Hong Kong-based writer whose blog focuses on the former colony’s democratic transition. “I think they will – but I’m not entirely certain.” | “The question is: are really these four or five local moderates or pan-democrats going to be able to hold the line?” said Suzanne Pepper, a Hong Kong-based writer whose blog focuses on the former colony’s democratic transition. “I think they will – but I’m not entirely certain.” |
| Martin Lee, a veteran activist, said pro-democracy lawmakers would not dare to go back on their word. | Martin Lee, a veteran activist, said pro-democracy lawmakers would not dare to go back on their word. |
| “That would mean [they had] betrayed the voters who elected them in 2012 on the basis of the platform which is for genuine democracy, not this sort of democracy,” he said. | “That would mean [they had] betrayed the voters who elected them in 2012 on the basis of the platform which is for genuine democracy, not this sort of democracy,” he said. |
| What happens if the reforms are voted down? | What happens if the reforms are voted down? |
| Pro-Beijing academics and newspapers have warned of dire consequences should the government’s plans be thwarted. “Hong Kong’s society would be badly torn apart and the good environment for economic development would therefore be destroyed,” warned an editorial in the People’s Daily, the Communist party’s official mouthpiece. | Pro-Beijing academics and newspapers have warned of dire consequences should the government’s plans be thwarted. “Hong Kong’s society would be badly torn apart and the good environment for economic development would therefore be destroyed,” warned an editorial in the People’s Daily, the Communist party’s official mouthpiece. |
| Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s number two official, this week painted a bleak picture of the risks. | Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s number two official, this week painted a bleak picture of the risks. |
| “For a start, our democratic development would come to a standstill. The community and legislature would remain divided,” she wrote in the South China Morning Post this week. “In the end, all Hong Kong people would suffer.” | “For a start, our democratic development would come to a standstill. The community and legislature would remain divided,” she wrote in the South China Morning Post this week. “In the end, all Hong Kong people would suffer.” |
| However, blocking the package would represent a major triumph for Hong Kong’s notoriously division-prone democracy movement. | However, blocking the package would represent a major triumph for Hong Kong’s notoriously division-prone democracy movement. |
| “The vote is very important because it would be the time that Hong Kong has simply turned back and said no to something that Beijing has decreed,” said Pepper. | “The vote is very important because it would be the time that Hong Kong has simply turned back and said no to something that Beijing has decreed,” said Pepper. |
| “This of course is the thing that Beijing does not want to have to tolerate: that someone has defied its sovereign authority. Beijing … have tried to maintain the Communist style of rule here and they have tried to impose it and if they vote no it will be very significant. It will be Hong Kong saying no to Beijing’s type of rule.” | “This of course is the thing that Beijing does not want to have to tolerate: that someone has defied its sovereign authority. Beijing … have tried to maintain the Communist style of rule here and they have tried to impose it and if they vote no it will be very significant. It will be Hong Kong saying no to Beijing’s type of rule.” |
| Could there be a repeat of last year’s protests if the package is approved? | Could there be a repeat of last year’s protests if the package is approved? |
| Related: Hong Kong democracy protesters return to the streets | Related: Hong Kong democracy protesters return to the streets |
| Student leaders and members of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy camp say new demonstrations are likely and warn of the threat of violence if the government does manage to push its package of reforms through. | Student leaders and members of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy camp say new demonstrations are likely and warn of the threat of violence if the government does manage to push its package of reforms through. |
| “There will be riots,” said Claudia Mo, a pro-democracy lawmaker, admitting, however, that many in Hong Kong had “protest fatigue” after last year’s 79-day umbrella movement demonstrations. | |
| “Social order will be further affected and social management will prove more difficult,” said Law. | “Social order will be further affected and social management will prove more difficult,” said Law. |
| On Tuesday, after 10 people were arrested for allegedly plotting to set off explosives around Hong Kong, CY Leung, the chief executive, warned: “We don’t tolerate any kind or any form of illegal activity whether they are non-violent or violent.” | |
| Some violence was possible but the more long-lasting consequence would be a bitter and potentially fatal civil war within the pro-democracy movement. | Some violence was possible but the more long-lasting consequence would be a bitter and potentially fatal civil war within the pro-democracy movement. |
| “If it’s approved all hell will break loose. It will be unpleasant to watch,” said Pepper. | “If it’s approved all hell will break loose. It will be unpleasant to watch,” said Pepper. |
| “What it will do is further split the democratic movement. If it is passed it might well mean the end of the democracy movement here. Because it will just fly off into even more factionalism and factional infighting than we see now.” | “What it will do is further split the democratic movement. If it is passed it might well mean the end of the democracy movement here. Because it will just fly off into even more factionalism and factional infighting than we see now.” |
| Additional reporting by Luna Lin | Additional reporting by Luna Lin |
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