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| Labor maintains an election winning lead in Ipsos poll – politics live | Labor maintains an election winning lead in Ipsos poll – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.58am AEST23:58 | |
| Citizenship stripping of alleged jihadists is also kicking around the corridors in the start-stop mildly chaotic fashion that has characterised this debate since its debut in January 2014. We are told the legislation will appear some time this fortnight. But seriously, who would know? A bunch of high powered lawyers can’t quite work out how such a move would be constitutional. | |
| The outgoing national security legislation monitor, Bret Walker, has been on the ABC this morning. He’s told his host Fran Kelly that it never occurred to him that the Abbott government would bring forward a proposal that would allow people to have their citizenship revoked without first having been convicted of a crime. Walker says he thought it would be clear to any government that doing that would be several bridges too far. | |
| Walker, an eminent lawyer, is asked whether he thinks the government’s proposal is constitutional. He says he doesn’t know, but he’s pretty sure if the government attempts to revoke someone’s citizenship in the absence of a conviction then the High Court won’t much care for that. | |
| For people interested in this issue, when time permits have a read of this terrific piece in the London Review of Books, which goes into the use of the citizenship revocation powers in the UK, and how this ties in with intelligence and security interests of the United States. | |
| Updated at 8.59am AEST | |
| 8.38am AEST23:38 | |
| Sticking with boats, the government has evidently decided that attack is the best form of defence. Indonesia has said in recent days that Australia has questions to answer on the alleged payments to people smugglers. | |
| But the foreign minister, Julie Bishop, who normally chooses her words carefully, has decided to speak rather sharply. She’s spoken to The Australian’s foreign editor, Greg Sheridan, this morning. | |
| She thinks Indonesia needs to get with the program. | |
| Julie Bishop: | |
| The best way for Indonesia to resolve any concerns it has about Operation Sovereign Borders is for Indonesia to enforce sovereignty over its borders. Operation Sovereign Borders is necessary because Indonesian boats with Indonesian crews are leaving Indonesia with the express intention of breaching our sovereignty, facilitated by illegal people-smuggling syndicates. | |
| 8.31am AEST23:31 | |
| We don't talk about that agency, unless of course we do | |
| I mentioned in the first post there’s another security-related leak regarding the boats. The Daily Telegraph’s political editor Simon Benson reports this morning that a senior intelligence source has told him that Australia’s foreign intelligence service – ASIS – had been engaged in covert disruption and intelligence operations, which could include paying people smugglers to take asylum seekers to Indonesia. | |
| Here’s what Benson quotes his source as saying: | |
| Put it this way, the navy doesn’t have authorisation to do such things nor do they sail around with safes full of US dollars in them. But for obvious and good reasons, we don’t talk about operations of that agency (ASIS). | |
| It’s one of those moderately hilarious blind quotes you read in stories from time to time. Well, apparently “we” don’t talk about the operations of that agency ... apart from when it suits us to float an idea through a newspaper. | |
| Then, apparently, “we” talk about that agency. Behind our hands. | |
| It really is amazing how much this government (or agents of this government) leaks security related issues, either officially or unofficially. | |
| Moving forward. | |
| The government is under pressure on this issue. If you’ve not followed this story closely, reports emerged last week that the government might have paid people smugglers to take asylum seekers back to Indonesia. These reports were denied initially by two ministers: the immigration minister and the foreign minister. But now the prime minister is refusing to deny that payments occurred. Others are cleaning up their previous denials. | |
| Tony Abbott said this yesterday: | |
| There’s really only one thing to say here, and that is that we’ve stopped the boats. That’s good for Australia, it’s good for Indonesia and it’s particularly good for all those who want to see a better world. | |
| This isn’t the only thing to say of course. | |
| Here’s a few suggestions of other things I can say from a standing start: | |
| The shadow immigration minister Richard Marles has written to the Auditor-General requesting an investigation of payments, allegedly worth $40,000. | |
| The Greens and cross benchers are also demanding answers. | |
| 7.59am AEST22:59 | 7.59am AEST22:59 |
| Well hello lovely people and welcome to Canberra on this Monday, which is cloudy with a high probability of nonsense. | Well hello lovely people and welcome to Canberra on this Monday, which is cloudy with a high probability of nonsense. |
| The main stories in politics early this Monday are boats (did the Australian government sanction a payment to people smugglers to take asylum seekers back to Indonesia); the new Ipsos poll (which after a brief flirtation with a budget bounce for Tony Abbott has now rejoined the published polling pack); and ‘will we or won’t we’ finally see new laws stripping alleged jihadists of their citizenship. | The main stories in politics early this Monday are boats (did the Australian government sanction a payment to people smugglers to take asylum seekers back to Indonesia); the new Ipsos poll (which after a brief flirtation with a budget bounce for Tony Abbott has now rejoined the published polling pack); and ‘will we or won’t we’ finally see new laws stripping alleged jihadists of their citizenship. |
| There also seems to be yet another security leak regarding the boats story this morning – but more of that in a minute. | There also seems to be yet another security leak regarding the boats story this morning – but more of that in a minute. |
| I’ll start with Ipsos because we need to, of course, note it, and doing this up front gets it out of the way so we can press on with today’s more weighty matters of state. | I’ll start with Ipsos because we need to, of course, note it, and doing this up front gets it out of the way so we can press on with today’s more weighty matters of state. |
| This morning’s poll, published by Fairfax Media, has Labor ahead on the two party preferred number on 53% to the government’s 47%. So all the major published polls are in alignment now, more or less. | This morning’s poll, published by Fairfax Media, has Labor ahead on the two party preferred number on 53% to the government’s 47%. So all the major published polls are in alignment now, more or less. |
| Blogans and bloganistas will remember Ipsos produced the only post budget poll that recorded a gain for the Abbott government – the major parties were 50/50 in a survey taken immediately after the economic statement last month. As I noted at the time, if we look at Ipsos compared to the other major opinion polls, the main measures seem more volatile than other surveys. The May result was also out of step with every other poll in the field at the time. | Blogans and bloganistas will remember Ipsos produced the only post budget poll that recorded a gain for the Abbott government – the major parties were 50/50 in a survey taken immediately after the economic statement last month. As I noted at the time, if we look at Ipsos compared to the other major opinion polls, the main measures seem more volatile than other surveys. The May result was also out of step with every other poll in the field at the time. |
| Looking at personal approval ratings, Fairfax chief political correspondent Mark Kenny notes this morning that the prime minister has lost ground on preferred prime minister in this latest survey, and “Mr Abbott’s personal approval rating has also suffered, with 40% of voters approving of his performance compared to 54% disapproving for a net rating of minus 14% – down 6 points since May. Mr Shorten is also in negative territory but less deeply with a rating of minus 6% – down 2 since May.” | Looking at personal approval ratings, Fairfax chief political correspondent Mark Kenny notes this morning that the prime minister has lost ground on preferred prime minister in this latest survey, and “Mr Abbott’s personal approval rating has also suffered, with 40% of voters approving of his performance compared to 54% disapproving for a net rating of minus 14% – down 6 points since May. Mr Shorten is also in negative territory but less deeply with a rating of minus 6% – down 2 since May.” |
| There’s also a same sex marriage question, which puts public support for marriage equality at 68%, which from memory, is similar to the recent Essential poll number on this question. As my colleague Shalailah Medhora reports this morning, Labor will keep up the pressure on the Coalition to make clear where it stands on granting a conscience vote on same-sex marriage by resuming a debate on its private member’s bill later this morning. Deputy opposition leader Tanya Plibersek and former government chief whip Philip Ruddock will each speak to the bill for five minutes during Monday’s allotment for private member’s business. | There’s also a same sex marriage question, which puts public support for marriage equality at 68%, which from memory, is similar to the recent Essential poll number on this question. As my colleague Shalailah Medhora reports this morning, Labor will keep up the pressure on the Coalition to make clear where it stands on granting a conscience vote on same-sex marriage by resuming a debate on its private member’s bill later this morning. Deputy opposition leader Tanya Plibersek and former government chief whip Philip Ruddock will each speak to the bill for five minutes during Monday’s allotment for private member’s business. |
| So let’s sprint forward into Monday. The comments thread is now wide open for your business, and you can reach Mikearoo and I on the Twits @murpharoo and @mpbowers | So let’s sprint forward into Monday. The comments thread is now wide open for your business, and you can reach Mikearoo and I on the Twits @murpharoo and @mpbowers |
| Updated at 8.03am AEST | Updated at 8.03am AEST |