Obama's new and 'nimble' anti-Isis strategy met with scepticism on all sides

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/10/us-anti-isis-strategy-iraq-advisers

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It was not clear how a new US plan to fight Isis militants in Iraq would correct the problems of the old plan, analysts and lawmakers said following a White House announcement of the strategy on Wednesday.

In a conference call with reporters, the White House billed the plan, which calls for 450 additional US troops to train Iraqi forces at a base in Anbar province, as a way to speed up the progress of air strikes against Isis positions in the region and to improve what it called the “situational awareness” of Iraqi forces – helping them to asses the size and scope of offensives by Isis.

The idea was to “be more nimble, because, clearly, this is a nimble enemy”, said Ben Rhodes, deputy national security adviser.

The announcement was greeted with indifference and scepticism in Iraq, where efforts to arm local Sunnis opposed to Isis have foundered and training programmes by the US have made little progress in producing disciplined Sunni fighters capable of challenging the militant group.

“The increase doesn’t have an effect,” said Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi scholar and expert on Isis. “It is a weak step to reduce pressure from the media.”

The air base where the additional US forces are to deploy, at al-Taqqadum, sits about halfway between entrenched Isis positions in Ramadi, about 40 kilometers to the west, and Fallujah, to the east. Elissa Slotkin, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, said having US forces positioned so close to the front lines could have “a deterrent effect” on Isis.

“The idea that the US is close to the actual combat role that the Iraqis will be taking, that we’re closer to the fight, that we shortened the strings on support for those forces, when it comes to providing overhead cover, all of those things – I think certainly, if I were [Isis], I would be factoring into the equation,” Slotkin said.

“The [US] forces will not be in a combat role themselves,” Rhodes said.

US forces have been attempting to train Iraqi forces to fight Isis since last year, when Barack Obama announced the deployment of 1,500 additional troops to the country. The latest deployment would bring the total number of US troops in Iraq to about 3,550.

The plan was also met with deep scepticism in the United States. “It’s not going to change a thing in Iraq,” Lindsey Graham, the senator and Republican presidential candidate, told CNN.

Representative Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the House intelligence committee, warned in a statement that the mission “cannot succeed … unless it is accompanied by significant governance changes by the Iraqis themselves,” and he expressed concern “that the president has decided to expand the American role in the battle against [Isis] when the war still lacks an authorization from Congress.”

Thousands of Iraqi security forces retreated from Ramadi without putting up a fight after being challenged last month by Isis militants, who captured the city. Defense secretary Ash Carter said the Iraqi forces lacked a “will to fight”.

It was additionally unclear how increasing the number of US soldiers available to train Iraqi fighters would overcome a central problem to the training effort most recently spelled out on Monday by Obama: a lack of recruits to train.

“We’ve got more training capacity than we’ve got recruits,” Obama said at the close of a G7 summit in Germany. “It’s not happening as fast as it needs to.”

Hashimi said that only 1,100 Sunnis had taken part in the US training programme, and none of them have graduated from it. In total, about 9,500 fighters have completed the training.

“Training is not a Sunni need or requirement, but arming is,” Hashimi said.

As part of the new plan, the White House said it would expedite the delivery of “essential equipment and materiel” to Iraqi forces, Kurdish Peshmerga forces and tribal fighters.

There was little official response in Iraq to the US announcement. Iraqi prime minister Haider al-Abadi met with General Lloyd Austin, the commander of US Central Command and the former commanding general of US forces in Iraq.

After the meeting, Abadi said in a statement that the efforts of the international community must continue to support Iraq against Isis, but made no reference to the announcement of additional trainers.

The American advisers began arriving after Isis conquered much of northern Iraq in a lightning advance last summer. They are based in Kurdistan, the Habbaniya air base near Ramadi, Ain al Assad air base, and a number of other facilities in the country.

Hashimi, who advises the Iraqi government on Isis, said their roles vary from consulting on military operations, to trainers and experts on communications and aerial reconnaissance, intelligence and experts on national reconciliation and tribal affairs.

The focus on retaking Ramadi represented a shift in strategy from April, when General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, downplayed the importance of defending the city.

“The city itself it’s not symbolic in any way,” Dempsey told reporters at the Pentagon. “It’s not been declared part of [the Isis] ‘caliphate’ on one hand, or central to the future of Iraq. ... I would much rather that Ramadi not fall, but it won’t be the end of a campaign” if it does.

An official with US Central Command told reporters in February that a counteroffensive to retake the northern city of Mosul, which Isis militants claimed one year ago, was planned for the spring. That counteroffensive never materialized, and officials now say Mosul is behind Ramadi as a priority.