Newspaper readers' election votes reveal influence of rightwing press
|
Version 0 of 1. A close analysis of the voting pattern among national newspaper readers at May’s general election reveals that the rightwing press played a significant role in the Tory victory. By comparing the votes cast by readers at separate titles at this year’s election with those at the 2010 election it is possible to detect the impact of the Conservative press on behalf of David Cameron’s party. The first point to note from the YouGov survey of voting by newspaper readership is the big vote for Ukip by readers of the Daily Express, the only paper to back Nigel Farage’s party. Related: Independent readers voted against paper's election endorsement A higher percentage of Express readers (27%) voted Ukip than at any other paper. Even so, 51% voted Tory. A similar poll conducted in 2010 by Ipsos Mori, which broke down voting by newspaper readerships, shows that 53% of its readers then voted Tory.* The great change from five years ago was the decrease in voting for Labour (down from 19% to 13%) and particularly the Lib Dems, down from 18% to just 5%. A similar pattern emerges from comparisons of the proportion of readers voting for each party at three other Tory-supporting titles: the Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail and the Sun. The totals voting Conservative in 2015 at all three were almost exactly the same as in 2010. And there were only minimal falls in Labour’s vote among their readers while Lib Dem support collapsed. It is inconceivable that previous Lib Dem voters opted for Ukip, so it is fair to surmise that most of them chose Labour, which would account for the voting numbers for Labour readers of rightwing papers holding steady. Given that some Tory voters must have gravitated towards Ukip, it strongly suggests that many former Labour voters switched to either the Tories or to Ukip. Therefore, it is reasonable to argue that the rightwing press’s propagandistic favouring of anti-immigration and anti-EU policies as espoused by Ukip, and as adopted in softer form by Cameron during his campaign, weighed heavily in the balance at the ballot box. I concede that it is not proof positive of the Tory-supporting press’s influence, but it is a perfectly feasible conclusion to reach and does lend some credence to my (much criticised) blogpost on 11 May, Yes, rightwing newspaper coverage did cause Ed Miliband’s downfall. It is a hunch, sure, but - as I pointed out previously - the margins of Labour losses at marginals that proved crucial to the election’s outcome were relatively small. The Tory press can surely boast that it won it for Cameron. But it’s only fair to point out that 9% of the Labour-supporting Daily Mirror’s readers also voted for Ukip despite a big rise in its readers’ support for Labour (up from 59% to 67%). Again, however, the Lib Dem support slumped (down from 17% to 5%) while the previous support for the Tories, of 16%, fell to 11%. So the pattern at the rightwing papers holds true at the Mirror, with Lib Dem voters turning to Labour while many previous Tory and Labour voters must have chosen Ukip. To get a grip on my argument, here are the comparative 2010-15 figures at all titles, beginning with Ukip (which didn’t register in the 2010 survey).** Daily Telegraph: Ukip: 12%. Tories: 70%/69%. Labour: 7%/8%. Lib Dems: 18%/8%. Daily Mail: Ukip: 19%. Tories: 59% Tories in 2010/59% in 2015. Labour: 16%/14%. Lib Dems: 16%/5%. The Sun: Ukip: 19%. Tories: 43%/47%. Labour: 28%/24%. Lib Dem: 18%/4%. Daily Express: Ukip: 27%. Tories: 53%/51%. Labour: 19%/13%. Lib Dems: 18%/5%. The Times: Ukip: 6%. Tories: 49%/55%. Labour: 22%/20%. Lib Dems: 24%/13%. Daily Mirror: Ukip: 9%. Tories: 16%/11%. Labour: 59%/67%. Lib Dems: 17%/5%. As for the others, the YouGov survey shows that readers of the Independent ignored their paper’s wish to see the continuation of the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition. Instead, 47% of its readers voted Labour, with 17% voting for the Tories and 16% for the Lib Dems, which was the highest proportion for that party among newspaper readers. But it was a substantial fall on 2010 when the Ipsos Mori figures showed that 44% of Indy readers voted Lib Dem (and 32% favoured Labour). One of the more predictable outcomes was among Guardian readers, where 62% voted for Labour (as against 46% in 2010) and 11% voted Lib Dem, compared to 37% last time. More Guardian readers voted Green (14%) than at any other title. And Ukip? Just 1%! See also Alberto Nardelli’s article on the YouGov survey. *Ipsos Mori has not produced figures for voting by newspaper readership at this election. The YouGov survey used a sample of 100,000 people, weighted to the demographic and political character of Britain. **YouGov did not give figures for the Financial Times or the Daily Star. One other noticeable omission from the figures is the vote for the Scottish National Party, which received an endorsement from the Sun’s Scottish edition. |