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| Erdoğan to struggle on despite thumbs down from Turkey's electorate | Erdoğan to struggle on despite thumbs down from Turkey's electorate |
| (33 minutes later) | |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may be down, but he’s not out. Turkey’s president is a fighter and will not give up easily, despite the slap in the face he received from voters in Sunday’s elections. | Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may be down, but he’s not out. Turkey’s president is a fighter and will not give up easily, despite the slap in the face he received from voters in Sunday’s elections. |
| Erdoğan’s reputation and standing have suffered, but he remains a formidable figure. He still has the means and the motivation to dish all the excited talk about a new dawn for Turkish democracy and try again to extend his presidential powers. “At the end of the day, it will be Erdoğan who will decide whether to begin an era of political chaos and instability, or to aid the normalisation of Turkish politics,” said the Hürriyet Daily News columnist Serkan Demirtaş. | Erdoğan’s reputation and standing have suffered, but he remains a formidable figure. He still has the means and the motivation to dish all the excited talk about a new dawn for Turkish democracy and try again to extend his presidential powers. “At the end of the day, it will be Erdoğan who will decide whether to begin an era of political chaos and instability, or to aid the normalisation of Turkish politics,” said the Hürriyet Daily News columnist Serkan Demirtaş. |
| Related: Turkey election: Erdoğan says no party has mandate to govern alone – live | Related: Turkey election: Erdoğan says no party has mandate to govern alone – live |
| Erdoğan has a choice, Demirtaş said. He could abandon his political ambitions and leave the newly elected party leaders to form the next government; or he could try to manipulate an uncertain, unstable situation to his advantage, as he has in the past. | Erdoğan has a choice, Demirtaş said. He could abandon his political ambitions and leave the newly elected party leaders to form the next government; or he could try to manipulate an uncertain, unstable situation to his advantage, as he has in the past. |
| In his first public statement since the vote, Erdoğan adopted an unaccustomed air of calm neutrality. He said the poll verdict must be respected, but appeared to suggest new elections might be necessary if attempts to form a coalition failed. | In his first public statement since the vote, Erdoğan adopted an unaccustomed air of calm neutrality. He said the poll verdict must be respected, but appeared to suggest new elections might be necessary if attempts to form a coalition failed. |
| At present, all the opposition parties have ruled out a deal with his Justice and Development party (AKP), which remains the single largest party despite significant losses. | At present, all the opposition parties have ruled out a deal with his Justice and Development party (AKP), which remains the single largest party despite significant losses. |
| “Our nation’s opinion is above everything else,” Erdoğan said. “I believe the results, which do not give the opportunity to any party to form a single-party government, will be assessed healthily and realistically by every party ... In this new process, it is of great importance that all the political forces show responsible behaviour.” | “Our nation’s opinion is above everything else,” Erdoğan said. “I believe the results, which do not give the opportunity to any party to form a single-party government, will be assessed healthily and realistically by every party ... In this new process, it is of great importance that all the political forces show responsible behaviour.” |
| Erdoğan’s outward calmness may not survive a scheduled internal inquest with AKP chiefs. Ahmet Davutoğlu, who took over as nominal party leader last year and led the election campaign, may be among the first to pay the price. | Erdoğan’s outward calmness may not survive a scheduled internal inquest with AKP chiefs. Ahmet Davutoğlu, who took over as nominal party leader last year and led the election campaign, may be among the first to pay the price. |
| Davutoğlu’s sacking as prime minister could form part of a wider bloodletting within the AKP as Erdoğan secures his base prior to going back on to the political offensive, commentators suggested. | Davutoğlu’s sacking as prime minister could form part of a wider bloodletting within the AKP as Erdoğan secures his base prior to going back on to the political offensive, commentators suggested. |
| “A comparison of leadership performances between Erdoğan and Davutoğlu will be inevitable,” Hürriyet reported. “There is speculation that the results could bring about a leadership change in which Erdoğan could leave his presidential office to head the party to an early election.” | “A comparison of leadership performances between Erdoğan and Davutoğlu will be inevitable,” Hürriyet reported. “There is speculation that the results could bring about a leadership change in which Erdoğan could leave his presidential office to head the party to an early election.” |
| If that happened, it would be a sensational development. Meanwhile, Davutoğlu is soldiering on manfully, declaring that although the AKP lost millions of votes, the result is in fact a triumph. “Everyone should know that the AKP is the winner ... This election has shown that the backbone of Turkey is the AKP,” he said. | If that happened, it would be a sensational development. Meanwhile, Davutoğlu is soldiering on manfully, declaring that although the AKP lost millions of votes, the result is in fact a triumph. “Everyone should know that the AKP is the winner ... This election has shown that the backbone of Turkey is the AKP,” he said. |
| Davutoğlu indicated the AKP would continue to push for the constitutional changes that critics say would, if enacted, give Erdoğan quasi-dictatorial powers – even though voters gave the proposals a big thumbs down. | Davutoğlu indicated the AKP would continue to push for the constitutional changes that critics say would, if enacted, give Erdoğan quasi-dictatorial powers – even though voters gave the proposals a big thumbs down. |
| Such chutzpah suggests Erdoğan is not minded to abandon his executive presidency plan. And this in turn makes new elections within the next three months more likely. A minority AKP government, or a coalition – the other options under discussion on Monday – could not deliver what he wants. | Such chutzpah suggests Erdoğan is not minded to abandon his executive presidency plan. And this in turn makes new elections within the next three months more likely. A minority AKP government, or a coalition – the other options under discussion on Monday – could not deliver what he wants. |
| If he goes down this path, Erdoğan will try to exploit the divisions and relative inexperience of the opposition parties while appealing to Turkey’s vast heartlands – still undisputed AKP territory. As elected president as well as de facto party boss, he still has access to many levers of power, including control of the security forces. He can also count, for now, on the loyalty of pro-government national TV stations and media outlets, which on Monday were dutifully calling for new elections. And despite denials, he may yet gain informal backing from the nationalist MHP. | If he goes down this path, Erdoğan will try to exploit the divisions and relative inexperience of the opposition parties while appealing to Turkey’s vast heartlands – still undisputed AKP territory. As elected president as well as de facto party boss, he still has access to many levers of power, including control of the security forces. He can also count, for now, on the loyalty of pro-government national TV stations and media outlets, which on Monday were dutifully calling for new elections. And despite denials, he may yet gain informal backing from the nationalist MHP. |
| Erdoğan is practised at conjuring up foreign and internal threats as a way of polarising voters and rallying support. An early election could thus be fought against a backdrop of alleged international conspiracies, traitorous plots and anti-Islamic machinations. Events in neighbouring Syria and Iraq provide plenty of opportunities to stoke such paranoia. | Erdoğan is practised at conjuring up foreign and internal threats as a way of polarising voters and rallying support. An early election could thus be fought against a backdrop of alleged international conspiracies, traitorous plots and anti-Islamic machinations. Events in neighbouring Syria and Iraq provide plenty of opportunities to stoke such paranoia. |
| The president is also not averse to threatening his opponents and locking them up if it suits his purposes, as numerous lawyers, journalists, writers, civil rights activists and army officers have found since he first came to power in 2002. | The president is also not averse to threatening his opponents and locking them up if it suits his purposes, as numerous lawyers, journalists, writers, civil rights activists and army officers have found since he first came to power in 2002. |
| Resurrecting the spectre of violent Kurdish secession is another possible tool. If push came to shove, the very success of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic party (HDP) could be used negatively to rekindle old fears about the enemy within. | Resurrecting the spectre of violent Kurdish secession is another possible tool. If push came to shove, the very success of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic party (HDP) could be used negatively to rekindle old fears about the enemy within. |
| And then there is always the possibility of fraud if and when the next election is held. Many Turks feared Sunday’s polls would be stolen and the HDP’s vote deliberately undercounted. It didn’t happen. But that is no guarantee it will not happen next time. | And then there is always the possibility of fraud if and when the next election is held. Many Turks feared Sunday’s polls would be stolen and the HDP’s vote deliberately undercounted. It didn’t happen. But that is no guarantee it will not happen next time. |
| For now at least, Erdoğan is on the back foot. His aura of invincibility has been shattered. But at 61, he is relatively young for a president. In 1999, he was convicted of “inciting hatred based on religious differences” and went to prison rather than back down. It would be wholly out of character for him to throw in the towel now. |