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Turkey election: ruling party on course to lose majority Turkey election: ruling party on course to lose majority
(about 1 hour later)
Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, suffered his most significant electoral defeat in more than a decade on Sunday when his ruling Justice and Development, or AK, party appeared on course to lose its parliamentary majority – and leaving it in search of a coalition partner in order to form a government. Based on 99% of all votes counted, the AKP secured 41% of the vote, followed by the Republican People’s party (CHP) at 25%, the Nationalist Movement party (MHP) on 16.5% and the pro-Kurdish leftist Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP) fourth at a surprise 12.5%. Erdoğan, Turkey’s most popular modern leader but also its most divisive, had hoped for a crushing victory for the AKP, to allow it to change the constitution and create a more powerful presidency. Its failure to win an overall majority marks an end to 12 years of uninterrupted, stable single-party rule since it first took power in 2002. The leftist HDP, the surprise star of this year’s parliament elections, passed Turkey’s unusually high election threshold of 10%. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has suffered his biggest setback in 13 years of amassing power as voters denied his ruling party a parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002 and gave the country’s large Kurdish minority its biggest voice ever in national politics.
The election result on Sunday, with almost all votes counted, appeared to wreck Erdoğan’s ambition of rewriting the constitution to establish himself as an all-powerful executive president. Erdoğan’s governing Justice and Development party, or AKP, won the election comfortably for the fourth time in a row, with around 41% of the vote, but that represented a steep fall in support from 49% in 2011, throwing the government of the country into great uncertainty.
The vote was the first time in four general elections that support for Erdoğan decreased. The fall coupled with an election triumph for a new pro-Kurdish party meant it was unlikely that the AKP would be able to form a majority government, forcing it to negotiate a coalition, probably with extreme nationalists, or to call a fresh election if no parliamentary majority can be secured within six weeks.
The new party, the HDP or Peoples’ Democratic party, largely representing the Kurds but also encompassing leftwing liberals, surpassed the steep 10% threshold for entering parliament to take more than 12% of the vote and around 80 seats in the 550-strong chamber.
Related: Turkish election outcome is blow to Erdoğan and breakthrough for KurdsRelated: Turkish election outcome is blow to Erdoğan and breakthrough for Kurds
The results suggest voters have rejected the ruling party’s attempt to remake the constitution and give more power to Erdoğan, for which it would have needed a two-thirds majority in parliament – or 367 seats. Instead, the AKP appears to have won 258 seats – falling short of the 276 seats required to form a majority government. The HDP victory denied Erdoğan’s party its majority. Erdoğan campaigned to secure a minimum of 330 seats in the parliament, a three-fifths majority that would have enabled him to call a referendum on the constitution with a view to converting Turkey into a presidential rather than a parliamentary system. But the AKP appeared unlikely to muster even a simple 276-seat majority.
The party’s projected share of the vote, at around 41%, is below the 49% it received in the parliamentary elections in 2011.
The atmosphere outside the AKP’s headquarters in Ankara was muted. Several hundred supporters chanted for Erdoğan, the party’s founder, but there was little sign of the massive crowds that gathered under its balcony after past election victories.
We expect a minority government and an early electionWe expect a minority government and an early election
“We expect a minority government and an early election,” a senior AKP official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. “We expect a minority government and an early election,” a senior AKP official told Reuters.
The AK prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, said that the party was the clear winner in the election and vowed to take all necessary measures to prevent harm to Turkey’s political stability. The prime minister and nominal head of the AK party, Ahmet Davutoglu, had promised to resign if he failed to obtain a simple parliamentary majority. With internal dissent rumbling in recent weeks within the government ranks and at the top of the AKP, the poor result for Erdoğan is likely to embolden dissenters and could spark a power stuggle.
“Everyone should see that the AKP is the winner and leader of these elections,” Davutoglu said in a speech to supporters from the balcony of the AKP headquarters in Ankara. “No one should try to build a victory from an election they lost.” The atmosphere outside the AKP’s headquarters in Ankara was muted. Several hundred supporters chanted for Erdoğan, the party’s founder, but there was little sign of the huge crowds that gathered after past election victories.
Erdoğan was not on the ballot but the election was, in effect, a referendum on whether to give his office extraordinary powers that would significantly change Turkish democracy and prolong his reign as the country’s most powerful politician. By contrast, thousands of jubilant Kurds flooded the streets of the south-eastern city of Diyarbakir as the results came in. Erdoğan had repeatedly lashed out at the HDP and its charismatic leader, Selahattin Demirtaş, before the election. Demirtaş promptly ruled out a coalition with the AKP.
His divide-and-rule method to rally his religious-conservative base has led to increasing polarisation in Turkey, and in some cases to violence.
In the run-up to Sunday’s election, the HDP reported more than 70 attacks on election offices and campaigners across the country. On Friday, two bombs exploded at an election rally in the main Kurdish city of Diyarbakir, killing two and wounding hundreds of others.
“This is the end of identity politics in Turkey,” said Gencer Özcan, professor for international relations at Bilgi University in Istanbul. “The election threshold is not the only barrier that was overcome tonight in the elections, but also emotional and identity barriers have been breached.” In a major blow to the AKP’s chances to remake the constitution, the Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP) managed to breach the election threshold by garnering over 11% of the national vote and win seats in parliament. “This is a golden opportunity for the HDP,” said Özcan. “Voters in Turkey endorse democracy in Turkey across identity boundaries.”
The pro-Kurdish HDP runs on a platform defending the rights of ethnic minorities, women, and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. In a polling station in the predominantly Kurdish suburb of Dolapdere in Istanbul, Hacer Dinler, 25, said that she had high hopes for the HDP.
“If they make it into parliament, everything will be better,” she said. “We will have more MPs to speak for us, which in turn will strengthen the peace process.”
It is the first time the HDP has run as a party in Turkish elections, and is not sending independent candidates into the race, for whom the election threshold does not apply.
Thousands of jubilant Kurds flooded the streets of Turkey’s southeastern city of Diyarbakir on Sunday as the results came in. Erdoğan had repeatedly lashed out at the HDP and its charismatic co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş before the elections.
“This result shows that this country has had enough. Enough of Erdoğan and his anger,” said Seyran Demir, a 47-year-old housewife who was among the thousands who gathered in the streets around the HDP’s provincial headquarters. “I am so full of joy that I can’t speak properly.”“This result shows that this country has had enough. Enough of Erdoğan and his anger,” said Seyran Demir, a 47-year-old housewife who was among the thousands who gathered in the streets around the HDP’s provincial headquarters. “I am so full of joy that I can’t speak properly.”
The HDP had looked to reach beyond Turkey’s roughly 20% Kurdish population, attempting to woo centre-left and secular voters disillusioned with Erdoğan. “The reason the HDP has won this many votes is because it has not excluded any members of this country, unlike our current rulers,” said 25-year-old Siar Senci. “It has embraced all languages, all ethnicities and members of all faiths and promised them freedom.” As head of state since last August following a triple term as prime minister, Erdoğan was not on the ballot. But the election was, in effect, a referendum on whether to give his office extraordinary powers that would significantly change Turkish democracy and prolong his reign as the country’s most powerful politician.
Demirtaş on Sunday night ruled out a coalition with the AKP. Voters roundly rejected that ambition, with the Kurdish vote in particular swinging the election against the incumbents on an unprecedented scale. The 10% hurdle, dating from the military-authored constitution of 1980, had been intended in part to diminish Kurdish representation in the parliament.
The HDP gambled on breaking the built-in disadvantage and triumphed. If it had fallen short of 10%, it would have forfeited all seats.
Erdoğan’s divide-and-rule strategy of rallying his religious-conservative base has led to increasing polarisation in Turkey, and in some cases to violence.
In the runup to the election, the HDP reported more than 70 attacks on election offices and campaigners across the country. On Friday, two bombs exploded at an election rally in Diyarbakir, killing three and wounding hundreds of others.
With 98% of all votes counted, the AKP secured 41% of the vote, followed by the main opposition Republican People’s party (CHP) at 25%, the Nationalist Movement party (MHP) on 16.5% and the HDP fourth on a surprise 12.5%.
The result signalled popular rejection of the ruling party’s attempt to remake the constitution and give more power to Erdoğan, for which it needed a two-thirds majority in parliament – or 367 seats. That had long appeared improbable. But Erdoğan also hoped to take 330 seats, a three-fifths majority that would have enabled him to call a referendum on constitutional change.
“This is the end of identity politics in Turkey,” said Gencer Özcan, professor for international relations at Bilgi University in Istanbul. “The election threshold is not the only barrier that was overcome tonight in the elections, but also emotional and identity barriers have been breached. This is a golden opportunity for the HDP. Voters in Turkey endorse democracy in Turkey across identity boundaries.”
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The secularist Republican People’s party (CHP) is projected to be the second biggest group in parliament. Murat Karayalçın, the party’s Istanbul chairman, said the outcome was a “clear no” to the executive presidential system championed by Erdoğan. The HDP ran on a platform defending the rights of ethnic minorities, women, and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. In a polling station in the predominantly Kurdish suburb of Dolapdere in Istanbul, Hacer Dinler, 25, said that she had high hopes for the HDP.
The rightwing Nationalist Movement party (MHP), long seen as the AKP’s most likely partner if it tried to form a coalition government, took close to 17% of the vote. The deputy chairman, Oktay Vural, said on Sunday it was too early for him to say whether it would consider forming a coalition government with the AKP. “It would be wrong for me to make an assessment about a coalition, our party will assess that in the coming period. I think the AK party will be making its own new evaluations after this outcome,” Vural said. “If they make it into parliament, everything will be better,” she said. “We will have more MPs to speak for us, which in turn will strengthen the peace process.”
The high stakes of this year’s parliamentary elections mobilised a large majority of the population to vote. The HDP success marked a sea-change likely to have a big impact on national politics. Shackled by the high threshold, pro-Kurdish candidates had previously run as independents in single seats to try to beat the 10% party barrier. But the HDP also successfully sought to reach beyond Turkey’s roughly 20% Kurdish population, attempting to woo centre-left and secular voters disillusioned with Erdoğan.
Aliye Goga, 39, a woman of Armenian descent, said it was the first she had voted. “I just never saw the point before,” she explained. “Now my eyes have opened up. The HDP is the only party for women in this country, and they make realistic promises. I really want them to pass the election threshold and get into parliament.” “The reason the HDP has won this many votes is because it has not excluded any members of this country, unlike our current rulers,” said 25-year-old Siar Senci. “It has embraced all languages, all ethnicities and members of all faiths and promised them freedom.”
Leyla Çelik, 38, a part-time student voting at a polling station in Istanbul’s conservative Fatih district, hoped the AKP would continue in power. “This government has exceeded all my expectations,” she said. “We have good healthcare, and women can go to school and university with a headscarf. They are a party that treats us like human beings.” The secularist Republican People’s party will be the second biggest group in parliament. Murat Karayalçin, the party’s Istanbul chairman, said the outcome was a “clear no” to the executive presidential system championed by Erdoğan.
The rightwing MHP, long seen as the AKP’s most likely partner if it tried to form a coalition government, took close to 17% of the vote. The deputy chairman, Oktay Vural, said on Sunday it was too early for him to say whether it would consider forming a coalition government with the AKP. “It would be wrong for me to make an assessment about a coalition, our party will assess that in the coming period. I think the AK party will be making its own new evaluations after this outcome,” Vural said.
The high stakes of this year’s parliamentary elections mobilised a large majority of the population to vote. Aliye Goga, 39, a woman of Armenian descent, said it was the first she had voted in. “I just never saw the point before,” she explained. “Now my eyes have opened up. The HDP is the only party for women in this country, and they make realistic promises.”
Leyla Çelik, 38, a part-time student voting Istanbul’s conservative Fatih district, hoped the AKP would continue in power. “This government has exceeded all my expectations. We have good healthcare, and women can go to school and university with a headscarf. They are a party that treats us like human beings.”