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Turkish election: ruling party on course to lose majority Turkey election: ruling party on course to lose majority
(about 1 hour later)
Preliminary vote counting in Turkey’s parliamentary election has suggested voters have rejected the ruling party’s attempt to remake the constitution. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, suffered his most significant electoral defeat in more than a decade on Sunday when his ruling Justice and Development, or AK, party appeared on course to lose its parliamentary majority – and leaving it in search of a coalition partner in order to form a government. Based on 99% of all votes counted, the AKP secured 41% of the vote, followed by the Republican People’s party (CHP) at 25%, the Nationalist Movement party (MHP) on 16.5% and the pro-Kurdish leftist Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP) fourth at a surprise 12.5%. Erdoğan, Turkey’s most popular modern leader but also its most divisive, had hoped for a crushing victory for the AKP, to allow it to change the constitution and create a more powerful presidency. Its failure to win an overall majority marks an end to 12 years of uninterrupted, stable single-party rule since it first took power in 2002. The leftist HDP, the surprise star of this year’s parliament elections, passed Turkey’s unusually high election threshold of 10%. The results suggest voters have rejected the ruling party’s attempt to remake the constitution and give more power to Erdoğan, for which it would have needed a two-thirds majority in parliament – or 367 seats. Instead, the AKP appears to have won 258 seats – falling short of the 276 seats required to form a majority government.
With about 97% of the vote counted, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development party, the AKP, was well ahead of other parties with just over 41%, according to state-run TRT television. But the projections gave it about 260 seats — 10 below the minimum to keep its majority. The party’s projected share of the vote, at around 41%, is below the 49% it received in the parliamentary elections in 2011.
We expect a minority government and early election The atmosphere outside the AKP’s headquarters in Ankara was muted. Several hundred supporters chanted for Erdoğan, the party’s founder, but there was little sign of the massive crowds that gathered under its balcony after past election victories.
“We expect a minority government and early election,” a senior AKP official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. “We expect a minority government and an early election,” a senior AKP official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
In a blow to the ruling party’s chances, the main Kurdish party – the People’s Democratic party (HDP) – was running at over 11%, above the 10% minimum threshold for representation.
AKP received about 49% of the vote in general elections in 2011. If the current trend holds, it would be first time the party has fallen short of a majority allowing it to rule alone since it swept into power in 2002.
#TurkishElection: AKP looks set to fall short of a majority, HDP above 10% with 85% counted http://t.co/GGpBbDEIUN pic.twitter.com/TaF47NwAYO
Erdoğan was not on the ballot but the election was, in effect, a referendum on whether to give his office extraordinary powers that would significantly change Turkish democracy and prolong his reign as the country’s most powerful politician.Erdoğan was not on the ballot but the election was, in effect, a referendum on whether to give his office extraordinary powers that would significantly change Turkish democracy and prolong his reign as the country’s most powerful politician.
The AKP would need to secure a two-thirds majority, or 367 seats, in order to rewrite the constitution without putting the changes to a referendum. Opinion polls suggest this is highly unlikely. A three-fifths majority, or 330 seats, would enable the government to call a plebiscite on constitutional changes. Failing that, the AKP needs 276 seats to rule without a coalition. His divide-and-rule method to rally his religious-conservative base has led to increasing polarisation in Turkey, and in some cases to violence.
In the run-up to Sunday’s election, the HDP reported more than 70 attacks on election offices and campaigners across the country. On Friday, two bombs exploded at an election rally in the main Kurdish city of Diyarbakir, killing two and wounding hundreds of others.
“This is the end of identity politics in Turkey,” said Gencer Özcan, professor for international relations at Bilgi University in Istanbul. “The election threshold is not the only barrier that was overcome tonight in the elections, but also emotional and identity barriers have been breached.” In a major blow to the AKP’s chances to remake the constitution, the Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP) managed to breach the election threshold by garnering over 11% of the national vote and win seats in parliament. “This is a golden opportunity for the HDP,” said Özcan. “Voters in Turkey endorse democracy in Turkey across identity boundaries.”
The pro-Kurdish HDP runs on a platform defending the rights of ethnic minorities, women, and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. In a polling station in the predominantly Kurdish suburb of Dolapdere in Istanbul, Hacer Dinler, 25, said that she had high hopes for the HDP.The pro-Kurdish HDP runs on a platform defending the rights of ethnic minorities, women, and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. In a polling station in the predominantly Kurdish suburb of Dolapdere in Istanbul, Hacer Dinler, 25, said that she had high hopes for the HDP.
Related: Turkish election - in pictures
“If they make it into parliament, everything will be better,” she said. “We will have more MPs to speak for us, which in turn will strengthen the peace process.”“If they make it into parliament, everything will be better,” she said. “We will have more MPs to speak for us, which in turn will strengthen the peace process.”
It is the first time the HDP has run as a party in Turkish elections, and is not sending independent candidates into the race, for whom the election threshold does not apply. If it fails to gain at least 10% of the national vote, it risks not being represented in parliament at all. Recent polls show the HDP slightly above the threshold, one of the highest in the world. It is the first time the HDP has run as a party in Turkish elections, and is not sending independent candidates into the race, for whom the election threshold does not apply.
Thousands of jubilant Kurds flooded the streets of Turkey’s southeastern city of Diyarbakir on Sunday as the results came in. Erdoğan had repeatedly lashed out at the HDP and its charismatic co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş before the elections.
“This result shows that this country has had enough. Enough of Erdoğan and his anger,” said Seyran Demir, a 47-year-old housewife who was among the thousands who gathered in the streets around the HDP’s provincial headquarters. “I am so full of joy that I can’t speak properly.”
The HDP had looked to reach beyond Turkey’s roughly 20% Kurdish population, attempting to woo centre-left and secular voters disillusioned with Erdoğan. “The reason the HDP has won this many votes is because it has not excluded any members of this country, unlike our current rulers,” said 25-year-old Siar Senci. “It has embraced all languages, all ethnicities and members of all faiths and promised them freedom.”
Demirtaş on Sunday night ruled out a coalition with the AKP.
The secularist Republican People’s party (CHP) is projected to be the second biggest group in parliament. Murat Karayalçın, the party’s Istanbul chairman, said the outcome was a “clear no” to the executive presidential system championed by Erdoğan.
The rightwing Nationalist Movement party (MHP), long seen as the AKP’s most likely partner if it tried to form a coalition government, took close to 17% of the vote. The deputy chairman, Oktay Vural, said on Sunday it was too early for him to say whether it would consider forming a coalition government with the AKP. “It would be wrong for me to make an assessment about a coalition, our party will assess that in the coming period. I think the AK party will be making its own new evaluations after this outcome,” Vural said.
The high stakes of this year’s parliamentary elections mobilised a large majority of the population to vote.The high stakes of this year’s parliamentary elections mobilised a large majority of the population to vote.
Aliye Goga, 39, a woman of Armenian descent, said it was the first she had voted. “I just never saw the point before,” she explained. “Now my eyes have opened up. The HDP is the only party for women in this country, and they make realistic promises. I really want them to pass the election threshold and get into parliament.”Aliye Goga, 39, a woman of Armenian descent, said it was the first she had voted. “I just never saw the point before,” she explained. “Now my eyes have opened up. The HDP is the only party for women in this country, and they make realistic promises. I really want them to pass the election threshold and get into parliament.”
Leyla Çelik, 38, a part-time student voting at a polling station in Istanbul’s conservative Fatih district, hoped the AKP would continue in power. “This government has exceeded all my expectations,” she said. “We have good healthcare, and women can go to school and university with a headscarf. They are a party that treats us like human beings.”Leyla Çelik, 38, a part-time student voting at a polling station in Istanbul’s conservative Fatih district, hoped the AKP would continue in power. “This government has exceeded all my expectations,” she said. “We have good healthcare, and women can go to school and university with a headscarf. They are a party that treats us like human beings.”
She added: “It will be better for Turkey if Erdoğan implements a presidential system. He is a good leader, and he will be able to achieve even more when he puts his own people in place, and can be in charge in the country.”
Erdoğan’s divide-and-rule method to rally his religious-conservative base has led to increasing polarisation in Turkey, and in some cases to violence. In the runup to Sunday’s election, the HDP reported more than 70 attacks on election offices and campaigners across the country. On Friday, two bombs exploded at an election rally in the main Kurdish city of Diyarbakir, killing three and wounding hundreds of others.
At a polling station in Fatih, dozens of volunteer election monitors stood watch at ballot boxes.
Related: Turkish election outcome is blow to Erdoğan and breakthrough for Kurds
“I am here to make sure everything runs smoothly and according to the rules,” said Nisan, 34, a volunteer for the civil rights platform Oy ve Ötesi (Ballot and Beyond). It is the second time he has decided to stand as an election monitor. “In my experience, ballot workers still lack experience when it comes to certain questions, for example when someone else wants to help an illiterate family member vote.”
He said he did not believe large-scale election rigging was possible at the ballot boxes, but that the runup to the elections had been anything but fair.
According to statistics released by the Supreme Board of Radio and Television (RTÜK) last Friday, the Turkish state broadcaster TRT gave disproportionately high coverage to the ruling party.
Almost 100 hours were dedicated to both Erdoğan – whose thinly veiled campaign speeches for the AKP, despite his obligation to remain neutral as the country’s president, drew widespread criticism from opposition parties – and the prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, whereas the main opposition Republican People’s party (CHP) and the HDP received only 14 and three hours respectively.
“It is impossible to speak of fair elections when the ruling party has all the advantages and all the money on its side,” Nisan said.