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Turkey votes in election that could bolster president's powers Turkey votes in election that could bolster president's powers
(about 1 hour later)
Voting has started in Turkey in a crucial parliamentary election that will determine whether the ruling party can rewrite the constitution to bolster the powers of the president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Voters in Turkey have gone to the polls in an election that could mark a fundamental change in Turkish politics and determine the fate of the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Erdoğan himself was not on the ballot. Still, the election is in effect a referendum on whether to endow his office with extraordinary powers that would significantly change Turkish democracy and prolong his reign as the country’s most powerful politician. Erdoğan is not on the ballot but the election is, in effect, a referendum on whether to endow his office with extraordinary powers that would significantly change Turkish democracy and prolong his reign as the country’s most powerful politician.
Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development party, the AKP, is expected to win significantly more votes than any opposition party but it must win a supermajority of the 550 seats in parliament to change the constitution. While recent polls suggest that his ruling Justice and Development, or AK party, will take the most seats in parliament, the party could see a drop in votes for the first time since they took power in 2002.
All eyes will be on the results for the main Kurdish party, HDP. If it crosses a 10% threshold for entering parliament as a party, that would extinguish AKP’s constitutional plans. The AK party would need to secure a two-thirds, or 367-seat, majority allowing it to rewrite the constitution without putting the changes to a referendum. According to opinion polls this looks highly unlikely. A three-fifth, or 330-seat, majority would enable the government to call a plebiscite on constitutional changes. Failing that the AKP needs 276 seats to rule without a coalition.
The vote comes amid high tensions following bombings on Friday during an HDP rally that killed two people and injured many. On Sunday, the prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, said a suspect had been detained in the attack. The outcome of the elections, however, will be determined by the leftist Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP), a group that runs on a platform defending the rights of minorities, women and LGBTs. If the HDP, co-chaired by this election’s surprise star Selahattin Demirtas, manages to get over Turkey’s unusually high 10% election threshold, they might put an end to the 13-year-long majority government of the Erdogan’s AK party, shattering his dreams of installing a more powerful executive presidency.
More than 53 million voters in Turkey and abroad are eligible to choose the deputies to the grand national assembly. If the AKP wins a majority of 330 seats, it could call for a national referendum to change the constitution. If the party captures 367 seats, it could vote in a change without a referendum. In a ballot station in predominantly Kurdish suburb of Dolapdere in Istanbul, Hacer Dinler, 25, said that she had very high hopes for the HDP:
After casting his vote, the HDP leader, Selahattin Demirtas, called for peace to follow what he described as an “onerous and a troubled campaign”. “If they make it into parliament, everything will be better. We will have more MPs to speak for us, which in turn will strengthen the peace process.”
Aside from the constitutional issues, the election could have a major impact on the peace process to end decades of insurgency by Kurdish militants in Turkey. It is the first time that the HDP runs as a party in Turkish elections and does not send independent candidates into the race, for whom the election threshold does not apply. If they fail to garner at least 10% of the national vote, they risk not being represented in parliament at all. Recent polls show the HDP slightly above the threshold, one of the highest in the world.
Erdoğan has been Turkey’s dominant politician since his party swept into power in 2002 – becoming prime minister in 2003 and leading his party to two overwhelming parliamentary election victories. In a gamble, last year he decided to run for president, banking that his party could later bolster his powers. The high stakes of this year’s parliamentary elections are expected to mobilise a large majority of the population to cast their ballots.
Under the current constitution, Erdoğan is meant to stay above the political fray as president. But he has been campaigning vociferously, drawing complaints from the opposition that he is ignoring the constitution. Aliye Goga, 39, a housewife of Armenian descent, said Sunday’s elections were the first that she used her vote in.
Early in the campaign, he called on voters to give AKP 400 deputies, but a slim majority for the ruling party is a more likely result. That could leave Erdoğan stranded in the presidential palace without the powers he has long sought. “I just never saw the point before,” she explained. “Now my eyes have opened up. The HDP is the only party for women in this country, and they make realistic promises. I really want them to pass the election threshold and get into parliament.”
A narrow win by the AKP, however, could be the best result for Davutoglu, who would lose power if Erdoğan has his way. Leyla Çelik, 38, a housewife and part-time student voting at a polling station in Istanbul’s conservative Fatih district, hoped for the continuation of AK party rule:
Opposition parties, including the main opposition Republican People’s party (CHP), and the nationalist MHP party are looking stronger in a recent poll, campaigning on positive economic agendas instead of merely criticising Erdoğan and the AKP. “This government has exceeded all my expectations,” she said. “We have good healthcare, and women can go to school and university with a headscarf. They are a party that treats us like human beings.”
Hakan Kiziltan, an Ankara resident, expressed optimism after voting on Sunday. She added: “It will be better for Turkey if Erdoğan will implement a presidential system. He is a good leader, and he will be able to achieve even more when he puts his own people in place, and can be in charge in the country.”
“May it be good for our people and our country,” he said. “I believe our country will go even further after these elections.” Erdoğan’s wish to increase his power and the HDP’s unprecedented success has raised fears of possible election rigging in the AK party’s favour. According to a survey published by Istanbul’s Koç University in May, trust in fair elections dropped to 48% from 70% in 2007, and for many, the trust in fair elections in Turkey has been severely shaken.
Erdoğan’s style of divide-and-rule to rally his religious-conservative base led to increasing polarisation of the country, and in some cases to violence. In the runup to Sunday’s election, the HDP reported more than 70 attacks on local election offices and campaigners all over the country. On Friday, twin bombs exploded at an election rally in the main Kurdish city of Diyarbakir, killing three and wounding hundreds of others.
At a polling station in Fatih, dozens of volunteer election monitors stood watch at ballot boxes.
“I am here to make sure everything runs smoothly and according to the rules,” said Nisan, 34, a volunteer for the civil rights platform Öy ve Ötesi (Ballot and Beyond). It is the second time he decided to stand as an election monitor. “In my experience ballot workers still lack experience when it comes to certain questions, for example when someone else wants to help an illiterate family member vote.”
He said he did not believe that large-scale election rigging was possible at the ballot boxes, but that the runup to the elections had been everything but fair.
According to statistics released by the Supreme Board of Radio and Television (RTÜK) last Friday, the Turkish state broadcaster TRT gave disproportionately high coverage to the ruling party.
Almost 100 hours were dedicated to both Erdoğan – whose thinly veiled campaign speeches for the AK party despite his obligation to remain neutral as the country’s president drew widespread criticism from opposition parties – and the prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, whereas the main opposition Republican People’s party (CHP) and the Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP) received only 14 and three hours respectively.
“It is impossible to speak of fair elections when the ruling party has all the advantages and all the money on its side,” Nisan said.