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Clinton dashes for dollars in Republican Texas, 'an ATM for Democrats' | Clinton dashes for dollars in Republican Texas, 'an ATM for Democrats' |
(about 2 hours later) | |
It is one of the reddest states in the union, where no Democrat has been elected to statewide office since 1994 and the most recent elections were even more of a massacre than usual. Yet Hillary Clinton is scheduled to arrive in Texas on Wednesday for a two-day tour that is likely to prove time well spent, poll numbers be damned. | It is one of the reddest states in the union, where no Democrat has been elected to statewide office since 1994 and the most recent elections were even more of a massacre than usual. Yet Hillary Clinton is scheduled to arrive in Texas on Wednesday for a two-day tour that is likely to prove time well spent, poll numbers be damned. |
Only the most quixotic Clinton supporter would think that she has a genuine chance to take Texas in 2016, but even a state known for its Republican-backing oil barons has a large store of wealthy Democrats willing to donate money that can be used to influence closer races elsewhere, such as Ohio and Florida. | Only the most quixotic Clinton supporter would think that she has a genuine chance to take Texas in 2016, but even a state known for its Republican-backing oil barons has a large store of wealthy Democrats willing to donate money that can be used to influence closer races elsewhere, such as Ohio and Florida. |
Related: 'People are going to be just as excited': Clinton courts Obama's black southern stronghold | Related: 'People are going to be just as excited': Clinton courts Obama's black southern stronghold |
So Clinton’s visit is about much more than making good on her pledge to work for every vote in every state. “Texas is an ATM machine for Democrats all over the country,” said Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party. | So Clinton’s visit is about much more than making good on her pledge to work for every vote in every state. “Texas is an ATM machine for Democrats all over the country,” said Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party. |
A reminder of its importance came last summer when Barack Obama was criticised by Republicans for visiting to attend three fundraisers without heading to the Rio Grande valley where the unaccompanied child migrant crisis was developing on the border. | |
Texas was the fifth-biggest fundraising state for Obama during his 2012 campaign, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, accounting for more than $15m. It placed second for Mitt Romney, with $36m. But wealthy attorneys and businesspeople in big cities, and not only liberal Austin, are ready to commit significant amounts to Democrats. | Texas was the fifth-biggest fundraising state for Obama during his 2012 campaign, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, accounting for more than $15m. It placed second for Mitt Romney, with $36m. But wealthy attorneys and businesspeople in big cities, and not only liberal Austin, are ready to commit significant amounts to Democrats. |
While Republican candidates have access to a slew of Texan oil billionaires with pockets as deep as their wells, it should not be assumed that big oil is entirely hostile to Clinton’s candidacy. She has sent mixed messages about environmental issues, coming out in favour of fracking in a speech last year but admitting that climate change is a pressing problem. | While Republican candidates have access to a slew of Texan oil billionaires with pockets as deep as their wells, it should not be assumed that big oil is entirely hostile to Clinton’s candidacy. She has sent mixed messages about environmental issues, coming out in favour of fracking in a speech last year but admitting that climate change is a pressing problem. |
As the National Journal pointed out in February, several oil and gas majors have given significant amounts to the Clinton Foundation. ExxonMobil heads the list with a donation of between $1m and $5m that it claimed was purely philanthropical. | As the National Journal pointed out in February, several oil and gas majors have given significant amounts to the Clinton Foundation. ExxonMobil heads the list with a donation of between $1m and $5m that it claimed was purely philanthropical. |
Clinton’s Texas spokesman did not return a request for comment, but she is reported to be visiting San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and Austin on her trip, which features breakfast fundraisers at the homes of prominent local figures that start at $2,700 per attendee. | Clinton’s Texas spokesman did not return a request for comment, but she is reported to be visiting San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and Austin on her trip, which features breakfast fundraisers at the homes of prominent local figures that start at $2,700 per attendee. |
It will overlap with Rick Perry’s announcement that he is running for president, which will come on Thursday in Dallas. Perry stepped down as governor after last November’s statewide elections. Democrats had genuine belief that Wendy Davis might succeed him given the attention and momentum generated by her filibuster against restrictive abortion laws in 2013. Her bid attracted high-profile donors including Hollywood power players such as Steven Spielberg and received $250,000 from Robert Patton, the Fort Worth businessman who co-owns the Los Angeles Dodgers. | It will overlap with Rick Perry’s announcement that he is running for president, which will come on Thursday in Dallas. Perry stepped down as governor after last November’s statewide elections. Democrats had genuine belief that Wendy Davis might succeed him given the attention and momentum generated by her filibuster against restrictive abortion laws in 2013. Her bid attracted high-profile donors including Hollywood power players such as Steven Spielberg and received $250,000 from Robert Patton, the Fort Worth businessman who co-owns the Los Angeles Dodgers. |
But she was thrashed by Greg Abbott, a low-key, staunch conservative who gained 59% of the vote to her 39%. | But she was thrashed by Greg Abbott, a low-key, staunch conservative who gained 59% of the vote to her 39%. |
It was a serious setback for Battleground Texas, the grassroots initiative designed to turn Texas purple, then blue. Democrats are hopeful that a Clinton candidacy would allow them to rebound quickly and cite history and demographics as reasons why the 2016 race in Texas might be tighter than most would expect. | It was a serious setback for Battleground Texas, the grassroots initiative designed to turn Texas purple, then blue. Democrats are hopeful that a Clinton candidacy would allow them to rebound quickly and cite history and demographics as reasons why the 2016 race in Texas might be tighter than most would expect. |
The then Hillary Rodham and Bill Clinton spent months in Texas in 1972 as young activists working on George McGovern’s doomed presidential campaign, forging long-lasting bonds. | |
In 1992, when Bill Clinton ousted George Bush in the presidential election, the Republican incumbent overcame the Democrat by only 3% in his home state. | In 1992, when Bill Clinton ousted George Bush in the presidential election, the Republican incumbent overcame the Democrat by only 3% in his home state. |
Hillary Clinton narrowly beat Obama in the 2008 Texas Democratic primary. | Hillary Clinton narrowly beat Obama in the 2008 Texas Democratic primary. |
“The Clintons have a great brand here,” said Mustafa Tameez, a Houston-based political consultant. While Obama received 41% of the vote in 2012 to Mitt Romney’s 57%, Tameez said that in a state of 26 million people with 14 million registered voters, the swing required to put Texas in play is not as daunting as it might seem. | “The Clintons have a great brand here,” said Mustafa Tameez, a Houston-based political consultant. While Obama received 41% of the vote in 2012 to Mitt Romney’s 57%, Tameez said that in a state of 26 million people with 14 million registered voters, the swing required to put Texas in play is not as daunting as it might seem. |
“There’s 600,000 votes that separates Texas from being a Democratic state. So if Republicans across the country began to lean towards Hillary it would have a significant impact in Texas elections,” he said, assuming that the Republican candidate does not have a surname that Texans will find hard to resist. “If there’s Jeb Bush on the other side then Texas Democrats will take a significant shellacking again.” | “There’s 600,000 votes that separates Texas from being a Democratic state. So if Republicans across the country began to lean towards Hillary it would have a significant impact in Texas elections,” he said, assuming that the Republican candidate does not have a surname that Texans will find hard to resist. “If there’s Jeb Bush on the other side then Texas Democrats will take a significant shellacking again.” |
Hinojosa is convinced that appealing to Hispanic voters is the key to unlocking Texas’s 38 electoral college votes. “We are the only majority-minority state in the country that is not blue,” he said. “The only way we turn Texas blue and get seriously competitive in our statewide races is if we turn out the Hispanic community.” | Hinojosa is convinced that appealing to Hispanic voters is the key to unlocking Texas’s 38 electoral college votes. “We are the only majority-minority state in the country that is not blue,” he said. “The only way we turn Texas blue and get seriously competitive in our statewide races is if we turn out the Hispanic community.” |
The most obvious way to do that would be for Clinton to select one of the Castro brothers, Joaquin and Julian, as her running mate. Julian, the most likely, is US housing and urban development secretary and previously San Antonio’s mayor; his twin is a US congressman. “It would increase Hispanic turnout in Texas like you’ve never seen before,” Hinojosa said. | The most obvious way to do that would be for Clinton to select one of the Castro brothers, Joaquin and Julian, as her running mate. Julian, the most likely, is US housing and urban development secretary and previously San Antonio’s mayor; his twin is a US congressman. “It would increase Hispanic turnout in Texas like you’ve never seen before,” Hinojosa said. |
Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, said that even the vaguest sign that the Republican candidate might lose in Texas would be a reliable portent of doom for the GOP in every battleground state, but adding Julian Castro to the ticket would add spice to what should be a routine race. | Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, said that even the vaguest sign that the Republican candidate might lose in Texas would be a reliable portent of doom for the GOP in every battleground state, but adding Julian Castro to the ticket would add spice to what should be a routine race. |
“If Castro is the vice-presidential candidate then the process could take on a much different dynamic because it would not just be Hillary Clinton running for president but it would also be in some ways a referendum on Julian Castro at the statewide level here in Texas which would motivate more Democrats to turn out – as well as perhaps some more Republicans,” he said. | “If Castro is the vice-presidential candidate then the process could take on a much different dynamic because it would not just be Hillary Clinton running for president but it would also be in some ways a referendum on Julian Castro at the statewide level here in Texas which would motivate more Democrats to turn out – as well as perhaps some more Republicans,” he said. |
For Tameez, a credible Clinton candidacy would have a local ripple effect in Texas and potentially significant consequences nationwide. | For Tameez, a credible Clinton candidacy would have a local ripple effect in Texas and potentially significant consequences nationwide. |
“Even if she doesn’t carry the state but she makes it a little more competitive, in a lot of judicial and down-ballot races, Democrats would benefit. Harris County [Houston], the third largest county in the country, largest county in Texas, has the longest ballot in the country. At the bottom of the ballot are the judicial races, 100-plus judges. That election can have a huge impact based on who’s at the top of the ticket,” he said. | “Even if she doesn’t carry the state but she makes it a little more competitive, in a lot of judicial and down-ballot races, Democrats would benefit. Harris County [Houston], the third largest county in the country, largest county in Texas, has the longest ballot in the country. At the bottom of the ballot are the judicial races, 100-plus judges. That election can have a huge impact based on who’s at the top of the ticket,” he said. |
“If Texas becomes purple or blue then rather than Democrats coming to the right to get elected, Republicans will have to come to the left to get elected. So you change the national conversation. So that’s what I think is at stake. That’s why Texas is important. It has a great electoral value, but for progressive issues and causes if Texas becomes competitive all of a sudden we start talking about different things. So the prize of Texas is huge.” | “If Texas becomes purple or blue then rather than Democrats coming to the right to get elected, Republicans will have to come to the left to get elected. So you change the national conversation. So that’s what I think is at stake. That’s why Texas is important. It has a great electoral value, but for progressive issues and causes if Texas becomes competitive all of a sudden we start talking about different things. So the prize of Texas is huge.” |
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