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Greek creditors to deliver bailout offer today - live updates Greek creditors to deliver bailout offer today - live updates
(35 minutes later)
Unemployment across the eurozone fell in April, but remains far too high in many members.
Eurostat just reported that the jobless rate across the euro area dipped to 11.1%, down from 11.2% in March. That’s a three-year low.
The lowest unemployment rate in April 2015 was recorded in Germany (4.7%), and the highest in Greece (25.4% in February 2015) and Spain (22.7%).
Euro area unemployment rate at 11.1% and EU at 9.7% in April 2015 #Eurostat http://t.co/jId2QphCYB pic.twitter.com/eMQTVapBbG
And this recovery may be feeding through to the shops -- retailers reported a healthy jump in trade in April, up 2.2% year-on-year.
Euro area retail trade +0.7% in Apr 15 over Mar 15, +2.2% over Apr 14 #Eurostat http://t.co/w0HLYRAyzk pic.twitter.com/B1yuq7MLjH
Greece’s economy will barely grow this month, and unemployment will be even higher than previously feared.
That’s according to new forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development this morning.
The OECD has adjusted its expectations downwards, given the events of recent months.
OECD slashes Greek GDP growth estimate to 0.1% in 2015 (from 2.3% before) and to 2.3% in 2016 (from 3.3%). #Greece #OECD #economy
OECD ups Greek debt/GDP forecast to 180% in 2015 (from 174.3% before) and to 178.1% in 2016 (from 171.4%). #Greece #OECD
OECD increases Greek unemployment projection to 25.7% in 2015 (from 25.2% before) and to 24.7% in 2016 (from 24.1%). #Greece #OECD
The previous forecasts were made in November 2014, shortly before the previous Greek government triggered January’s general election.
The pound just took a tumble after the latest survey of Britain’s service sector missed forecasts.The pound just took a tumble after the latest survey of Britain’s service sector missed forecasts.
GBPUSD timberrrrrrrr pic.twitter.com/WJpQvQ5zPfGBPUSD timberrrrrrrr pic.twitter.com/WJpQvQ5zPf
Markit’s monthly PMI data shows that the UK economy only grew by a quarterly rate of 0.4% in May.Markit’s monthly PMI data shows that the UK economy only grew by a quarterly rate of 0.4% in May.
It “raises doubts about the ability of the economy to rebound convincingly from the weakness seen at the start of the year,” says their chief economist, Chris Williamson. More on this shortly...It “raises doubts about the ability of the economy to rebound convincingly from the weakness seen at the start of the year,” says their chief economist, Chris Williamson. More on this shortly...
It’s official.... Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem is indeed attending tonight’s crunch meeting in Brussels.It’s official.... Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem is indeed attending tonight’s crunch meeting in Brussels.
That means the eurozone’s finance ministers will have a presence as the leaders of Greece and the EC debate the crisis.That means the eurozone’s finance ministers will have a presence as the leaders of Greece and the EC debate the crisis.
And with members of the ECB and IMF also turning up, it’s going to be crowded....And with members of the ECB and IMF also turning up, it’s going to be crowded....
So tonight's meeting in Brussels will include @J_Dijsselbloem, @JunckerEU, @atsipras and representatives of ECB and IMF.So tonight's meeting in Brussels will include @J_Dijsselbloem, @JunckerEU, @atsipras and representatives of ECB and IMF.
Helena SmithHelena Smith
Officials in Athens are calling the latest developments “the most crucial day” since the anti-austerity government launched negotiations with creditors in February.Officials in Athens are calling the latest developments “the most crucial day” since the anti-austerity government launched negotiations with creditors in February.
Our correspondent Helena Smith reports:Our correspondent Helena Smith reports:
Well-placed sources are not ruling out a third teleconference between the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and the German and French leaders after tonight’s meeting at 8pm in Brussels with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.Well-placed sources are not ruling out a third teleconference between the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and the German and French leaders after tonight’s meeting at 8pm in Brussels with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.
The radical left leader will be accompanied by the Oxford-educated economist Euclid Tsakalotos, who heads Greece’s negotiating team, his close ally, minister of state Nikos Pappas and the Greek government spokesman Gavriel Sekallarides.The radical left leader will be accompanied by the Oxford-educated economist Euclid Tsakalotos, who heads Greece’s negotiating team, his close ally, minister of state Nikos Pappas and the Greek government spokesman Gavriel Sekallarides.
Two texts are still believed to “be doing the rounds” according to officials: the 47-page Greek proposal, and the agreement drafted by officials representing the debt-stricken country’s creditors at the EU, ECB and IMF late last night.Two texts are still believed to “be doing the rounds” according to officials: the 47-page Greek proposal, and the agreement drafted by officials representing the debt-stricken country’s creditors at the EU, ECB and IMF late last night.
One insider told me:One insider told me:
“The struggle for an honourable compromise is far from over. There are still red lines. This is about the future of Greece.”“The struggle for an honourable compromise is far from over. There are still red lines. This is about the future of Greece.”
Some citizens are still keeping their spirits up, though:Some citizens are still keeping their spirits up, though:
"So, the latest round of talks between #Greece and its creditors is on track?" pic.twitter.com/bljmGNvHhW"So, the latest round of talks between #Greece and its creditors is on track?" pic.twitter.com/bljmGNvHhW
Rumour watch: Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the eurogroup (eurozone finance ministers) is planning to meet Alexis Tsipras tonight too, according to Bloomberg.Rumour watch: Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the eurogroup (eurozone finance ministers) is planning to meet Alexis Tsipras tonight too, according to Bloomberg.
*DIJSSELBLOEM SAID TO MEET TSIPRAS IN BRUSSELS TONIGHT*DIJSSELBLOEM SAID TO MEET TSIPRAS IN BRUSSELS TONIGHT
Yesterday, Dijsselbloem was quite negative about the prospects of a deal this week, warning that more work is needed and that Tsipras needed to be honest with his electorate.Yesterday, Dijsselbloem was quite negative about the prospects of a deal this week, warning that more work is needed and that Tsipras needed to be honest with his electorate.
Back in Greece, speculation about a snap election is rife.Back in Greece, speculation about a snap election is rife.
Dat awkward moment when election-rumors are dominating almost every discussion in TV, cafeterias, workspace & your Facebook inbox. #GreeceDat awkward moment when election-rumors are dominating almost every discussion in TV, cafeterias, workspace & your Facebook inbox. #Greece
Good news from Italy; the unemployment rate fell to 12.4% in April, down from 12.6% in March (which was revised down from 13%).Good news from Italy; the unemployment rate fell to 12.4% in April, down from 12.6% in March (which was revised down from 13%).
With Italy now finally returning to growth this year, there are signs that its lacklustre economy is picking up. Still a long way to go, though.With Italy now finally returning to growth this year, there are signs that its lacklustre economy is picking up. Still a long way to go, though.
Here comes the first gobbet of economic data....and it shows that growth across Europe’s private sector slowed a little in May.Here comes the first gobbet of economic data....and it shows that growth across Europe’s private sector slowed a little in May.
Markit’s Eurozone Composite Output Index fell to 53.6, down from 53.9 in April, meaning the sector expanded at a slower rate. That suggests the long deadlock over Greece may have sapped confidence.Markit’s Eurozone Composite Output Index fell to 53.6, down from 53.9 in April, meaning the sector expanded at a slower rate. That suggests the long deadlock over Greece may have sapped confidence.
But on the upside; firms hired workers at the fastest rate in four years, and France’s figures were rather stronger than expected.But on the upside; firms hired workers at the fastest rate in four years, and France’s figures were rather stronger than expected.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit warned that “any escalation of the Greek crisis could rapidly derail the recovery”.Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit warned that “any escalation of the Greek crisis could rapidly derail the recovery”.
“The Eurozone recovery lost some of the wind from its sails in May, with growth of output and new orders both slowing to three-month lows.“The Eurozone recovery lost some of the wind from its sails in May, with growth of output and new orders both slowing to three-month lows.
“The weak euro is boosting manufacturing and households are benefitting from lower inflation, but the region’s high unemployment continues to limit spending on goods and services. Heightened uncertainty surrounding the Greek debt crisis is also acting as a brake on growth.”“The weak euro is boosting manufacturing and households are benefitting from lower inflation, but the region’s high unemployment continues to limit spending on goods and services. Heightened uncertainty surrounding the Greek debt crisis is also acting as a brake on growth.”
If a deal is reached, then Greek public relief could cushion the blow of making painful concessions, argues George Pagoulatos, professor of European politics and economy at the Athens University of Economics and Business.If a deal is reached, then Greek public relief could cushion the blow of making painful concessions, argues George Pagoulatos, professor of European politics and economy at the Athens University of Economics and Business.
He told Bloomberg that:He told Bloomberg that:
“The need for a deal is so big, after such a prolonged liquidity crunch, that the relief for the wider public will eventually trump the cost of compromise.”“The need for a deal is so big, after such a prolonged liquidity crunch, that the relief for the wider public will eventually trump the cost of compromise.”
Bloomberg also believes that the IMF/ECB/EC proposal focuses on reform policies, not the debt relief that Greece has been pushing for.Bloomberg also believes that the IMF/ECB/EC proposal focuses on reform policies, not the debt relief that Greece has been pushing for.
No debt relief for #Greece? Hard to be optimistic after this important story from @nchrysoloras @bjennen1 @corinaruhe http://t.co/bw9Z0LS8jCNo debt relief for #Greece? Hard to be optimistic after this important story from @nchrysoloras @bjennen1 @corinaruhe http://t.co/bw9Z0LS8jC
We also don’t know much about the rival proposal which Greece has drawn up, and which Alexis Tsipras will take to Brussels today.We also don’t know much about the rival proposal which Greece has drawn up, and which Alexis Tsipras will take to Brussels today.
But Greek newspaper Kathimerini believes it raises less revenue than lenders demand, and also takes a more gentle approach to pension and labour reform:But Greek newspaper Kathimerini believes it raises less revenue than lenders demand, and also takes a more gentle approach to pension and labour reform:
According to sources, it proposes a low primary surplus target for this year of between 0.3% and 0.8% of gross domestic product as well as retaining three value-added tax rates – at 6%, 11% and 23% – but varying the goods and services assigned to each rate.According to sources, it proposes a low primary surplus target for this year of between 0.3% and 0.8% of gross domestic product as well as retaining three value-added tax rates – at 6%, 11% and 23% – but varying the goods and services assigned to each rate.
But the Greek proposal for VAT foresees €1bn in revenue being raised, around half of the creditors’ desired target.But the Greek proposal for VAT foresees €1bn in revenue being raised, around half of the creditors’ desired target.
Other measures are said to include the gradual abolition of early retirements, from 2020, which is unlikely to be a bold enough intervention to satisfy creditors. A proposal to restore collective labor contracts is unlikely to go down well either.Other measures are said to include the gradual abolition of early retirements, from 2020, which is unlikely to be a bold enough intervention to satisfy creditors. A proposal to restore collective labor contracts is unlikely to go down well either.
We don’t yet know what’s in the creditors’ proposals. But the Financial Times believes it may include more onerous budget targets than Greece would like:We don’t yet know what’s in the creditors’ proposals. But the Financial Times believes it may include more onerous budget targets than Greece would like:
It could require Greece to achieve primary budget surpluses — revenues less expenses when debt interest payments are not included — of as much as 3.5% of gross domestic product in the medium term. Athens has demanded a much lower level.It could require Greece to achieve primary budget surpluses — revenues less expenses when debt interest payments are not included — of as much as 3.5% of gross domestic product in the medium term. Athens has demanded a much lower level.
The FT adds:The FT adds:
Another person briefed on the plan said the latest proposals remained closer to the IMF’s stance in several important areas — including requiring Greece to keep its pension fund from running a deficit — than the commission’s more lenient views.Another person briefed on the plan said the latest proposals remained closer to the IMF’s stance in several important areas — including requiring Greece to keep its pension fund from running a deficit — than the commission’s more lenient views.
Greek bonds are rallying a little this morning, as the City shows confidence that a deal will be reached.Greek bonds are rallying a little this morning, as the City shows confidence that a deal will be reached.
The yield on Greece’s benchmark 10-year debt has fallen to 11.2%, from 11.35% last night. That shows the bonds are seen as less risky (although still unsuitable for widows and orphans).The yield on Greece’s benchmark 10-year debt has fallen to 11.2%, from 11.35% last night. That shows the bonds are seen as less risky (although still unsuitable for widows and orphans).
Greece’s two-year bond yields have also dipped, to 23.5% from 23.7%. Encouraging, but that still indicates a high chance the bonds will be ‘restructured’.Greece’s two-year bond yields have also dipped, to 23.5% from 23.7%. Encouraging, but that still indicates a high chance the bonds will be ‘restructured’.
#Greece will not pay #IMF on Fri w/o prospect of a deal. Mkts more confident, 2yr yield drops. http://t.co/P83qJ3uy5I pic.twitter.com/IJhdHC3tyD#Greece will not pay #IMF on Fri w/o prospect of a deal. Mkts more confident, 2yr yield drops. http://t.co/P83qJ3uy5I pic.twitter.com/IJhdHC3tyD
France’s economy minister, Emmanuel Macron, has predicted success in the talks between Greece and the creditors:France’s economy minister, Emmanuel Macron, has predicted success in the talks between Greece and the creditors:
Greek government spokesman Nikos Filis has raised the states this morning, warning that Greece won’t repay €305m to the IMF on Friday unless it believes a deal is close.Greek government spokesman Nikos Filis has raised the states this morning, warning that Greece won’t repay €305m to the IMF on Friday unless it believes a deal is close.
Filis told Mega TV that:Filis told Mega TV that:
“If there is no prospect of a deal by Friday or Monday, I don’t know by when exactly, we will not pay.”“If there is no prospect of a deal by Friday or Monday, I don’t know by when exactly, we will not pay.”
Missing Friday’s payment wouldn’t be a formal default; but it would still be a serious step for Athens to take. As the WSJ explains:Missing Friday’s payment wouldn’t be a formal default; but it would still be a serious step for Athens to take. As the WSJ explains:
If after two weeks the debt still hasn’t been repaid, IMF’s management make a direct appeal to Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis or his alternate, Yannis Stournaras, making it clear how serious the situation is.If after two weeks the debt still hasn’t been repaid, IMF’s management make a direct appeal to Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis or his alternate, Yannis Stournaras, making it clear how serious the situation is.
Good morning. It’s going to be a big day for Greece, and the eurozone.Good morning. It’s going to be a big day for Greece, and the eurozone.
Efforts to agree a package of economic reforms will step up another gear, as Greece’s three main creditors submit their proposal to break the deadlock.Efforts to agree a package of economic reforms will step up another gear, as Greece’s three main creditors submit their proposal to break the deadlock.
The International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission have drawn up a collective offer to Athens, in the desperate hope that it could be agreed in principle by Friday.The International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission have drawn up a collective offer to Athens, in the desperate hope that it could be agreed in principle by Friday.
That would pave the way for a proper staff-level agreement a week later, getting vital loans flowing back to Greece.That would pave the way for a proper staff-level agreement a week later, getting vital loans flowing back to Greece.
But with Greece having drawn up its own proposals, senior eurozone officials fear that the creditors’ offer could be rejected. The stakes are desperately high, with Greece due to repay €305m to the IMF in two days time.But with Greece having drawn up its own proposals, senior eurozone officials fear that the creditors’ offer could be rejected. The stakes are desperately high, with Greece due to repay €305m to the IMF in two days time.
As we wrote last night:As we wrote last night:
The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, will be presented with what is expected to be a take-it-or-leave-it plan on Wednesday after five months of drama-filled negotiations to keep his debt-stricken country afloat.The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, will be presented with what is expected to be a take-it-or-leave-it plan on Wednesday after five months of drama-filled negotiations to keep his debt-stricken country afloat.
“It covers all key policy areas and reflects the discussions of recent weeks,” a senior EU official said on Tuesday. “It will be discussed with Tsipras tomorrow.”“It covers all key policy areas and reflects the discussions of recent weeks,” a senior EU official said on Tuesday. “It will be discussed with Tsipras tomorrow.”
Tsipras is due to fly to Brussels this afternoon for a meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker, in an attempt to get a political deal that he can sell back home. He’ll be carrying Greece’s own plan, one official told my colleague Helena Smith:Tsipras is due to fly to Brussels this afternoon for a meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker, in an attempt to get a political deal that he can sell back home. He’ll be carrying Greece’s own plan, one official told my colleague Helena Smith:
“The prime minister will be in Brussels tomorrow with the Greek proposal in his luggage.”“The prime minister will be in Brussels tomorrow with the Greek proposal in his luggage.”
Related: Alexis Tsipras to face take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum from lenders over debt offerRelated: Alexis Tsipras to face take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum from lenders over debt offer
Not sure everyone in Athens agrees #Greece pic.twitter.com/g0lIbINc7zNot sure everyone in Athens agrees #Greece pic.twitter.com/g0lIbINc7z
Eurozone deputy finance ministers (who form the Euro Working Group) will hold their own teleconference on Wednesday afternoon to discuss Greece.Eurozone deputy finance ministers (who form the Euro Working Group) will hold their own teleconference on Wednesday afternoon to discuss Greece.
And if all that wasn’t enough, we’ve got the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting this afternoon. Mario Draghi will face the press at 1.30pm, for questions on the European economy, the inflation outlook, and Greece.And if all that wasn’t enough, we’ve got the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting this afternoon. Mario Draghi will face the press at 1.30pm, for questions on the European economy, the inflation outlook, and Greece.
There’s also going to be a flurry of economic news today:There’s also going to be a flurry of economic news today:
Today sees the release of Eurozone, UK, US Services PMI, ECB Rate Decision, US ADP Employment Change, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manf., DoEs!Today sees the release of Eurozone, UK, US Services PMI, ECB Rate Decision, US ADP Employment Change, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manf., DoEs!
We’ll be covering it all through the day!We’ll be covering it all through the day!