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Greek creditors to deliver bailout offer today - live update Greek creditors to deliver bailout offer today - live updates
(35 minutes later)
We don’t yet know what’s in the creditors’ proposals. But the Financial Times believes it may include more onerous budget targets than Greece would like:
It could require Greece to achieve primary budget surpluses — revenues less expenses when debt interest payments are not included — of as much as 3.5% of gross domestic product in the medium term. Athens has demanded a much lower level.
The FT adds:
Another person briefed on the plan said the latest proposals remained closer to the IMF’s stance in several important areas — including requiring Greece to keep its pension fund from running a deficit — than the commission’s more lenient views.
Greek bonds are rallying a little this morning, as the City shows confidence that a deal will be reached.
The yield on Greece’s benchmark 10-year debt has fallen to 11.2%, from 11.35% last night. That shows the bonds are seen as less risky (although still unsuitable for widows and orphans).
Greece’s two-year bond yields have also dipped, to 23.5% from 23.7%. Encouraging, but that still indicates a high chance the bonds will be ‘restructured’.
#Greece will not pay #IMF on Fri w/o prospect of a deal. Mkts more confident, 2yr yield drops. http://t.co/P83qJ3uy5I pic.twitter.com/IJhdHC3tyD
France’s economy minister, Emmanuel Macron, has predicted success in the talks between Greece and the creditors:
Greek government spokesman Nikos Filis has raised the states this morning, warning that Greece won’t repay €305m to the IMF on Friday unless it believes a deal is close.
Filis told Mega TV that:
“If there is no prospect of a deal by Friday or Monday, I don’t know by when exactly, we will not pay.”
Missing Friday’s payment wouldn’t be a formal default; but it would still be a serious step for Athens to take. As the WSJ explains:
If after two weeks the debt still hasn’t been repaid, IMF’s management make a direct appeal to Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis or his alternate, Yannis Stournaras, making it clear how serious the situation is.
Good morning. It’s going to be a big day for Greece, and the eurozone.Good morning. It’s going to be a big day for Greece, and the eurozone.
Efforts to agree a package of economic reforms will step up another gear, as Greece’s three main creditors submit their proposal to break the deadlock.Efforts to agree a package of economic reforms will step up another gear, as Greece’s three main creditors submit their proposal to break the deadlock.
The International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission have drawn up a collective offer to Athens, in the desperate hope that it could be agreed in principle by Friday.The International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission have drawn up a collective offer to Athens, in the desperate hope that it could be agreed in principle by Friday.
That would pave the way for a proper staff-level agreement a week later, getting vital loans flowing back to Greece.That would pave the way for a proper staff-level agreement a week later, getting vital loans flowing back to Greece.
But with Greece having drawn up its own proposals, senior eurozone officials fear that the creditors’ offer could be rejected. The stakes are desperately high, with Greece due to repay €305m to the IMF in two days time.But with Greece having drawn up its own proposals, senior eurozone officials fear that the creditors’ offer could be rejected. The stakes are desperately high, with Greece due to repay €305m to the IMF in two days time.
As we wrote last night:As we wrote last night:
The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, will be presented with what is expected to be a take-it-or-leave-it plan on Wednesday after five months of drama-filled negotiations to keep his debt-stricken country afloat.The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, will be presented with what is expected to be a take-it-or-leave-it plan on Wednesday after five months of drama-filled negotiations to keep his debt-stricken country afloat.
“It covers all key policy areas and reflects the discussions of recent weeks,” a senior EU official said on Tuesday. “It will be discussed with Tsipras tomorrow.”“It covers all key policy areas and reflects the discussions of recent weeks,” a senior EU official said on Tuesday. “It will be discussed with Tsipras tomorrow.”
Tsipras is due to fly to Brussels this afternoon for a meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker, in an attempt to get a political deal that he can sell back home. He’ll be carrying Greece’s own plan, one official told my colleague Helena Smith:Tsipras is due to fly to Brussels this afternoon for a meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker, in an attempt to get a political deal that he can sell back home. He’ll be carrying Greece’s own plan, one official told my colleague Helena Smith:
“The prime minister will be in Brussels tomorrow with the Greek proposal in his luggage.”“The prime minister will be in Brussels tomorrow with the Greek proposal in his luggage.”
Related: Alexis Tsipras to face take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum from lenders over debt offerRelated: Alexis Tsipras to face take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum from lenders over debt offer
Not sure everyone in Athens agrees #Greece pic.twitter.com/g0lIbINc7zNot sure everyone in Athens agrees #Greece pic.twitter.com/g0lIbINc7z
Eurozone deputy finance ministers (who form the Euro Working Group) will hold their own teleconference on Wednesday afternoon to discuss Greece.Eurozone deputy finance ministers (who form the Euro Working Group) will hold their own teleconference on Wednesday afternoon to discuss Greece.
And if all that wasn’t enough, we’ve got the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting this afternoon. Mario Draghi will face the press at 1.30pm, for questions on the European economy, the inflation outlook, and Greece.And if all that wasn’t enough, we’ve got the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting this afternoon. Mario Draghi will face the press at 1.30pm, for questions on the European economy, the inflation outlook, and Greece.
There’s also going to be a flurry of economic news today:There’s also going to be a flurry of economic news today:
Today sees the release of Eurozone, UK, US Services PMI, ECB Rate Decision, US ADP Employment Change, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manf., DoEs!Today sees the release of Eurozone, UK, US Services PMI, ECB Rate Decision, US ADP Employment Change, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manf., DoEs!
We’ll be covering it all through the day!We’ll be covering it all through the day!