This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/02/sundays-poll-could-upend-turkish-politics-and-weaken-the-parliament

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Sunday's poll could upend Turkish politics – and weaken the parliament Why Turkey's elections could upend its politics – the Guardian briefing
(35 minutes later)
What’s happening?What’s happening?
Turkey holds its parliamentary elections on Sunday 7 June. In Turkey’s last parliamentary elections, in 2011, 43 million of the country’s 50 million eligible voters came to the polling station. On Sunday, a similar number are predicted to turn out to elect 550 people to form the 25th parliament of Turkey. The parliament is known as the grand national assembly.Turkey holds its parliamentary elections on Sunday 7 June. In Turkey’s last parliamentary elections, in 2011, 43 million of the country’s 50 million eligible voters came to the polling station. On Sunday, a similar number are predicted to turn out to elect 550 people to form the 25th parliament of Turkey. The parliament is known as the grand national assembly.
Turkey is an emerging democracy and has an interesting electoral system, which will be tested during this election. The president is hoping his party will gain a “super-majority” in the parliament, allowing it to make changes to the constitution without holding a referendum, and thus enabling it to introduce stronger presidential powers and change the shape of Turkish politics.Turkey is an emerging democracy and has an interesting electoral system, which will be tested during this election. The president is hoping his party will gain a “super-majority” in the parliament, allowing it to make changes to the constitution without holding a referendum, and thus enabling it to introduce stronger presidential powers and change the shape of Turkish politics.
What’s the background?What’s the background?
Related: Erdoğan: presidential Turkey would be like UK, where Queen’s in chargeRelated: Erdoğan: presidential Turkey would be like UK, where Queen’s in charge
Turkey has a president and a prime minster. The prime minister is the leader of whichever party wins a majority in parliamentary elections, such as those being held on the weekend. The president used to be appointed by parliament, but a referendum in 2010 changed that to allow for direct presidential elections, the first of which was held last August and won by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Erdoğan had been, until that point, prime minister of Turkey and leader of the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP).Turkey has a president and a prime minster. The prime minister is the leader of whichever party wins a majority in parliamentary elections, such as those being held on the weekend. The president used to be appointed by parliament, but a referendum in 2010 changed that to allow for direct presidential elections, the first of which was held last August and won by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Erdoğan had been, until that point, prime minister of Turkey and leader of the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP).
Erdoğan claims the current parliamentary system is ineffective and is calling for Turkey to move to a strong presidential system of government, which he believes necessary to turn Turkey into a world power.Erdoğan claims the current parliamentary system is ineffective and is calling for Turkey to move to a strong presidential system of government, which he believes necessary to turn Turkey into a world power.
In order to strengthen presidential powers, the ruling party would need to change Turkey’s constitution, which can happen in different ways depending on how many seats the ruling party wins. A party needs to win 276 seats to form a government, but if it wins 330 seats it can call referendums on proposed constitutional changes throughout its rule. If it wins 367 seats – a two-thirds majority – it can change the constitution without calling a referendum, giving the ruling party an enormous amount of power.In order to strengthen presidential powers, the ruling party would need to change Turkey’s constitution, which can happen in different ways depending on how many seats the ruling party wins. A party needs to win 276 seats to form a government, but if it wins 330 seats it can call referendums on proposed constitutional changes throughout its rule. If it wins 367 seats – a two-thirds majority – it can change the constitution without calling a referendum, giving the ruling party an enormous amount of power.
Despite a constitutional requirement that the president should remain impartial during parliamentary election campaigns, Erdoğan has been touring the country campaigning for the AKP, in the hope that his party will win 367 seats and make the constitutional changes to presidential powers that he would like.Despite a constitutional requirement that the president should remain impartial during parliamentary election campaigns, Erdoğan has been touring the country campaigning for the AKP, in the hope that his party will win 367 seats and make the constitutional changes to presidential powers that he would like.
In the 2002 parliamentary elections, the AKP won almost 60% of the country’s seats and was just four seats shy of the 367-seat threshold that would have allowed it to make constitutional changes without referendums, despite winning only 34.3% of the vote. The reason for this discrepancy is Turkey’s electoral system, which reallocates the seats won by small parties if they do not receive a certain percentage of the national vote. Erdoğan is hoping this electoral quirk will work in his party’s favour again this year, though polling suggests he will be disappointed, with the AKP predicted to win the election, but not the super-majority Erdoğan is hoping for.In the 2002 parliamentary elections, the AKP won almost 60% of the country’s seats and was just four seats shy of the 367-seat threshold that would have allowed it to make constitutional changes without referendums, despite winning only 34.3% of the vote. The reason for this discrepancy is Turkey’s electoral system, which reallocates the seats won by small parties if they do not receive a certain percentage of the national vote. Erdoğan is hoping this electoral quirk will work in his party’s favour again this year, though polling suggests he will be disappointed, with the AKP predicted to win the election, but not the super-majority Erdoğan is hoping for.
How does the voting system work?How does the voting system work?
Turkey is broken into regions that can elect a certain number of MPs based on population. However, Turkey employs the D’Hondt voting system, which requires a party to win a certain percentage of the national vote in order to take up any seats it has won. The D’Hondt method is used in other countries such as Denmark, Spain, Israel, Poland and Russia, but Turkey has the highest threshold of any country in the world, requiring a party to receive 10% of the national vote before any of its elected representatives can enter parliament.Turkey is broken into regions that can elect a certain number of MPs based on population. However, Turkey employs the D’Hondt voting system, which requires a party to win a certain percentage of the national vote in order to take up any seats it has won. The D’Hondt method is used in other countries such as Denmark, Spain, Israel, Poland and Russia, but Turkey has the highest threshold of any country in the world, requiring a party to receive 10% of the national vote before any of its elected representatives can enter parliament.
What this means is that if a party wins 40 seats but receives only 9.55% of the national vote, as the True Path party (DYP) did in the 2002 Turkish elections, it forfeits those 40 seats, which are then reallocated to larger parties. This system gives larger parties an obvious advantage, as they often end up with bonus seats, allowing the ruling party to increase its parliamentary majority dramatically.What this means is that if a party wins 40 seats but receives only 9.55% of the national vote, as the True Path party (DYP) did in the 2002 Turkish elections, it forfeits those 40 seats, which are then reallocated to larger parties. This system gives larger parties an obvious advantage, as they often end up with bonus seats, allowing the ruling party to increase its parliamentary majority dramatically.
To put the Turkish system in context, if a 10% threshold applied in the UK, the current parliament would be made up of Conservative, Labour and Ukip MPs only, with the SNP, Liberal Democrats, Greens and all other parties forfeiting their seats. Under the Turkish system, the Conservatives would have gained 28 bonus seats, Labour would have gained 49 and Ukip would have increased the number of seats it won from one to 10.To put the Turkish system in context, if a 10% threshold applied in the UK, the current parliament would be made up of Conservative, Labour and Ukip MPs only, with the SNP, Liberal Democrats, Greens and all other parties forfeiting their seats. Under the Turkish system, the Conservatives would have gained 28 bonus seats, Labour would have gained 49 and Ukip would have increased the number of seats it won from one to 10.
If a 10% threshold applied in the UK, the current parliament would be made up of Conservative, Labour and Ukip MPs onlyIf a 10% threshold applied in the UK, the current parliament would be made up of Conservative, Labour and Ukip MPs only
The 10% threshold does not apply to candidates who run as independents, and some parties use this to their advantage. For example, in the 2011 elections the Peace and Democracy party (BDP) received only 5.67% of the vote across the country, but 35 of their members were elected as independents – and then rejoined the BDP after the election.The 10% threshold does not apply to candidates who run as independents, and some parties use this to their advantage. For example, in the 2011 elections the Peace and Democracy party (BDP) received only 5.67% of the vote across the country, but 35 of their members were elected as independents – and then rejoined the BDP after the election.
Who are the parties?Who are the parties?
Founded by politicians of various existing conservative parties in 2001, the Islamic­conservative Justice and Development party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since it won in landslide elections in 2002. In the last national elections the party gathered 49.8% of all votes. The former foreign minister Ahmet Davutoğlu became party leader and prime minister after Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected as president of Turkey in a popular vote last year. He also stands as the party’s top candidate on 7 June, despite his often criticised and only thinly veiled support for the AKP, when as president he should be impartial.Founded by politicians of various existing conservative parties in 2001, the Islamic­conservative Justice and Development party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since it won in landslide elections in 2002. In the last national elections the party gathered 49.8% of all votes. The former foreign minister Ahmet Davutoğlu became party leader and prime minister after Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected as president of Turkey in a popular vote last year. He also stands as the party’s top candidate on 7 June, despite his often criticised and only thinly veiled support for the AKP, when as president he should be impartial.
One main target for the AKP is to win a two­thirds majority – or 367 seats in parliament – in order to change the current constitution and introduce an executive presidential system without a referendum. This seems to have become an unattainable goal. While it is pretty much certain that the AKP will emerge as the winner from the elections, recent polls suggest that they might lose up to 10 points – which would put a referendum, for which the party needs a three ­fifths majority, or 330 seats, out of reach.One main target for the AKP is to win a two­thirds majority – or 367 seats in parliament – in order to change the current constitution and introduce an executive presidential system without a referendum. This seems to have become an unattainable goal. While it is pretty much certain that the AKP will emerge as the winner from the elections, recent polls suggest that they might lose up to 10 points – which would put a referendum, for which the party needs a three ­fifths majority, or 330 seats, out of reach.
The AKP faces a number of serious challenges in this year’s elections. Internally the party is more divided than ever before. Furthermore, an important number of AKP voters show little support for the party’s executive presidency plans. Foreign policy troubles, a stalling economy and the government’s increasing authoritarianism might drive an important number of former AKP voters to cast their ballots for one of the opposition parties.The AKP faces a number of serious challenges in this year’s elections. Internally the party is more divided than ever before. Furthermore, an important number of AKP voters show little support for the party’s executive presidency plans. Foreign policy troubles, a stalling economy and the government’s increasing authoritarianism might drive an important number of former AKP voters to cast their ballots for one of the opposition parties.
Established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of the Turkish Republic, in 1923, the Republican People’s party (CHP) is the oldest party and represents the main opposition. The party leader and its top candidate is Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. In the last parliamentary elections, the CHP was able to garner 25.98% of all votes.Established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of the Turkish Republic, in 1923, the Republican People’s party (CHP) is the oldest party and represents the main opposition. The party leader and its top candidate is Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. In the last parliamentary elections, the CHP was able to garner 25.98% of all votes.
The CHP’s election manifesto is centred on economic and labour issues: the party promises to introduce higher pensions, to tackle the current unemployment rate of 11.2%, and to improve employment among young people. It also promises to increase the minimum wage from 950 lira (£235) to 1,500 lira a month, whereas the work week is not to exceed 40 hours. The CHP supports the reform of the current constitution, introduced by the military junta after the 1980 military coup, but opposes the AKP’s plans of an executive presidency.The CHP’s election manifesto is centred on economic and labour issues: the party promises to introduce higher pensions, to tackle the current unemployment rate of 11.2%, and to improve employment among young people. It also promises to increase the minimum wage from 950 lira (£235) to 1,500 lira a month, whereas the work week is not to exceed 40 hours. The CHP supports the reform of the current constitution, introduced by the military junta after the 1980 military coup, but opposes the AKP’s plans of an executive presidency.
The CHP is the only party that organised primaries for the candidates standing in the 7 June elections and the election manifesto was written over a period of eight months and in cooperation with unions, trade chambers and other civil society groups. While the party has certainly changed under its current leader, many voters, especially Kurds and the religiously conservative, still distrust the CHP as a dogmatic and elitist party, making an election victory highly unlikely.The CHP is the only party that organised primaries for the candidates standing in the 7 June elections and the election manifesto was written over a period of eight months and in cooperation with unions, trade chambers and other civil society groups. While the party has certainly changed under its current leader, many voters, especially Kurds and the religiously conservative, still distrust the CHP as a dogmatic and elitist party, making an election victory highly unlikely.
The far-right Nationalist Movement party (MHP), informally known as the Grey Wolves, will likely retain its place as the third largest group in the Turkish parliament. In 2011, the party got 13.01% of all votes, and runs again under the leadership of Devlet Bahçeli.The far-right Nationalist Movement party (MHP), informally known as the Grey Wolves, will likely retain its place as the third largest group in the Turkish parliament. In 2011, the party got 13.01% of all votes, and runs again under the leadership of Devlet Bahçeli.
While the MHP supports a certain degree of Kurdish and minority rights – the party promises in its manifesto that Cemeviler, Alevi houses of worship, will receive state support – they are against the peace process between the government and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), arguing that the Kurds need to accept the authority of the Turkish state. They promise to end all ongoing negotiations should they come to power.While the MHP supports a certain degree of Kurdish and minority rights – the party promises in its manifesto that Cemeviler, Alevi houses of worship, will receive state support – they are against the peace process between the government and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), arguing that the Kurds need to accept the authority of the Turkish state. They promise to end all ongoing negotiations should they come to power.
Therefore the MHP draws their support mainly from a non-Kurdish base and is likely to generate MPs in all major Turkish cities. The MHP is expected to improve their vote count this year but has no traditional stronghold anywhere in the country. Polls suggest they will take votes both from the ruling AKP as well as from the main opposition CHP, from Turks who do not agree with the peace negotiations or who long for a return to more Turkish-nationalist government policies. Lately both Erdoğan and AKP candidates have criticised Kurdish politicians and the peace process in campaign speeches, well aware that the MHP might eat into their nationalist voter base.Therefore the MHP draws their support mainly from a non-Kurdish base and is likely to generate MPs in all major Turkish cities. The MHP is expected to improve their vote count this year but has no traditional stronghold anywhere in the country. Polls suggest they will take votes both from the ruling AKP as well as from the main opposition CHP, from Turks who do not agree with the peace negotiations or who long for a return to more Turkish-nationalist government policies. Lately both Erdoğan and AKP candidates have criticised Kurdish politicians and the peace process in campaign speeches, well aware that the MHP might eat into their nationalist voter base.
Often described as Turkey’s answer to Greece’s Syriza and the Spain’s Podemos, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP) arguably has the highest stakes in this year’s national elections. In order to enter parliament after 7 June, it will have to garner at least 10% of the national vote to get over the election threshold. Should it succeed, it will secure at least 50 seats, but if it fails all of these seats will go to the other parties and might hand the AKP a huge majority.Often described as Turkey’s answer to Greece’s Syriza and the Spain’s Podemos, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP) arguably has the highest stakes in this year’s national elections. In order to enter parliament after 7 June, it will have to garner at least 10% of the national vote to get over the election threshold. Should it succeed, it will secure at least 50 seats, but if it fails all of these seats will go to the other parties and might hand the AKP a huge majority.
Founded in 2012 and led by chairman Selahattin Demirtaş and chairwoman Figen Yüksekdag, this democratic-socialist party will stand the first time as a party. In 2011 the HDP’s MPs stood as independent candidates since Turkey’s election threshold of 10% only applies to political parties. It is the only political party in Turkey that has a 50% women’s quota.Founded in 2012 and led by chairman Selahattin Demirtaş and chairwoman Figen Yüksekdag, this democratic-socialist party will stand the first time as a party. In 2011 the HDP’s MPs stood as independent candidates since Turkey’s election threshold of 10% only applies to political parties. It is the only political party in Turkey that has a 50% women’s quota.
The HDP centres its election programme on minority rights, the rights of women and LGBTs and aspires to end ethnic, religious and gender discrimination. The party promises to drive forward the Kurdish peace process and to introduce mother-tongue education. It also plans to abolish obligatory (Sunni) religious lessons in schools in favour of electives that correspond with pupils’ religious beliefs. The HDP describes itself as an environmentalist and anti-capitalist party that opposes nuclear power and vows to improve workers’ rights.The HDP centres its election programme on minority rights, the rights of women and LGBTs and aspires to end ethnic, religious and gender discrimination. The party promises to drive forward the Kurdish peace process and to introduce mother-tongue education. It also plans to abolish obligatory (Sunni) religious lessons in schools in favour of electives that correspond with pupils’ religious beliefs. The HDP describes itself as an environmentalist and anti-capitalist party that opposes nuclear power and vows to improve workers’ rights.
What are the issues?What are the issues?
An Ipsos poll conducted earlier this year found that the most significant issue for Turkish voterswas the condition of the economy, closely followed by unemployment. The AKP has campaigned strongly on these issues, claiming credit for the financial growth experienced by Turkey, which is now the world’s 17th-largest economy. The CHP, however, claims that the financial growth Turkey has experienced has led to greater inequality between rich and poor and has pledged, if elected, to tackle youth unemployment, which sits around 20%.An Ipsos poll conducted earlier this year found that the most significant issue for Turkish voterswas the condition of the economy, closely followed by unemployment. The AKP has campaigned strongly on these issues, claiming credit for the financial growth experienced by Turkey, which is now the world’s 17th-largest economy. The CHP, however, claims that the financial growth Turkey has experienced has led to greater inequality between rich and poor and has pledged, if elected, to tackle youth unemployment, which sits around 20%.
A key issue in the campaign is rights for the 14 million Kurdish people in Turkey. The AKP originally promised they would increase rights for Kurds by establishing Kurdish-language media and university departments, but the party seems to have changedits mind on these issues, with Erdoğan claiming earlier in the campaign that there was “no longer a Kurdish problem”. The AKP’s refusal to engage on Kurdish issues could see it lose support and bleed seats to the pro-Kurdish BDP.A key issue in the campaign is rights for the 14 million Kurdish people in Turkey. The AKP originally promised they would increase rights for Kurds by establishing Kurdish-language media and university departments, but the party seems to have changedits mind on these issues, with Erdoğan claiming earlier in the campaign that there was “no longer a Kurdish problem”. The AKP’s refusal to engage on Kurdish issues could see it lose support and bleed seats to the pro-Kurdish BDP.
Both main parties have promised that, if elected with a sufficient majority, they will make changes to Turkey’s constitution, which was written in 1982 by the military leaders who ruled Turkey. The AKP promises a completely new constitution, focused on the individual and freedom, though opponents fear the changes are to consolidate Erdoğan’s power. The CHP promises to change the constitution to introduce press freedoms - Turkey is currently ranked 148th in the world for journalistic freedom by Reporters Without Borders - a reduction in the electoral threshold to 3% and greater rights for minority ethnic groups.Both main parties have promised that, if elected with a sufficient majority, they will make changes to Turkey’s constitution, which was written in 1982 by the military leaders who ruled Turkey. The AKP promises a completely new constitution, focused on the individual and freedom, though opponents fear the changes are to consolidate Erdoğan’s power. The CHP promises to change the constitution to introduce press freedoms - Turkey is currently ranked 148th in the world for journalistic freedom by Reporters Without Borders - a reduction in the electoral threshold to 3% and greater rights for minority ethnic groups.
Where can I find out more?Where can I find out more?
For more on what it would mean if Erdoğan had his way with constitutional change, read this.For more on what it would mean if Erdoğan had his way with constitutional change, read this.
Follow Constanze Letsch, the Guardian’s Istanbul correspondent, on Twitter.Follow Constanze Letsch, the Guardian’s Istanbul correspondent, on Twitter.
Polling numbers are based on an average of the last five poll results before the pre-election polling restriction, which came into effect on May 28.Polling numbers are based on an average of the last five poll results before the pre-election polling restriction, which came into effect on May 28.