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David Cameron packs plenty into his one-party Queen's speech David Cameron packs plenty into his one-party Queen's speech
(about 2 hours later)
This may be the Queen’s speech that David Cameron never planned, or entirely hoped, to pass to Her Majesty. He largely regarded the Conservative manifesto as an opening negotiating bid with the Liberal Democrats ahead of inevitable coalition talks with Nick Clegg.This may be the Queen’s speech that David Cameron never planned, or entirely hoped, to pass to Her Majesty. He largely regarded the Conservative manifesto as an opening negotiating bid with the Liberal Democrats ahead of inevitable coalition talks with Nick Clegg.
Now the Lib Dems are dispatched to the political wilderness, Cameron suddenly finds himself the sole master in his own house. He no longer has to send civil service emissaries to Clegg’s entourage for a second opinion. The Tory manifesto needs to be read on its own, and not as a companion volume to the Lib Dem manifesto. No yellow has to be blended into the blue. Now the Lib Dems are dispatched to the political wilderness, Cameron suddenly finds himself the sole master in his own house. He no longer has to send civil service emissaries to Clegg’s entourage for a second opinion. The Tory manifesto needs to be read on its own and not as a companion volume to the Lib Dem manifesto. No yellow has to be blended into the blue.
As a result Cameron himself, rather than at the behest of Clegg, has had to shelve the British bill of rights, as the Tory party tries to work out how to transpose populism into law, especially how withdrawal from the European convention on human rights could possibly be achieved in the face of a veto by the Scottish government. As a result, Cameron himself, rather than at the behest of Clegg, has had to shelve the British bill of rights, as the Tory party tries to work out how to transpose populism into law, especially how withdrawal from the European convention on human rights could possibly be achieved in the face of a veto by the Scottish government.
Nevertheless it is striking the amount of legislation being funnelled into the first session of parliament, including measures that Clegg blocked in the previous parliament such as those covering state surveillance and counter-extremism. Nevertheless, it is striking the amount of legislation being funnelled into the first session of parliament, including measures that Clegg blocked in the previous parliament such as those covering state surveillance and counter-extremism.
Cameron may have made the calculation that he needs to strike now while his authority is at its greatest and before attrition, byelections and backbench grievances start to erode his already-fragile 12-seat majority. It is also to his benefit that Labour has once again turned inwards, focusing on who is nominating who for the Labour leadership.Cameron may have made the calculation that he needs to strike now while his authority is at its greatest and before attrition, byelections and backbench grievances start to erode his already-fragile 12-seat majority. It is also to his benefit that Labour has once again turned inwards, focusing on who is nominating who for the Labour leadership.
So Cameron is acting fast on free enterprise, a snooper’s charter 2, strike thresholds, the sell-off of housing association properties, devolution to Scotland and on the referendum on UK membership of the European Union. So Cameron is acting fast on free enterprise, a snooper’s charter 2, strike thresholds, the sell-off of housing association properties, devolution to Scotland and the referendum on UK membership of the European Union.
Equally, Theresa May, the home secretary, has grabbed a large chunk of legislative space to push through five bills, including the now-annual bill to curb immigration.Equally, Theresa May, the home secretary, has grabbed a large chunk of legislative space to push through five bills, including the now-annual bill to curb immigration.
George Osborne, the chancellor and first minister, has ensured his northern powerhouse plan has a slot, but the number of cities apart from Greater Manchester that will want to be run by a directly elected mayor is currently small. Osborne has shown how well he can negotiate with northern Labour council leaders, but achieving progress beyond Manchester will require more diplomacy than winning a deal in Europe.George Osborne, the chancellor and first minister, has ensured his northern powerhouse plan has a slot, but the number of cities apart from Greater Manchester that will want to be run by a directly elected mayor is currently small. Osborne has shown how well he can negotiate with northern Labour council leaders, but achieving progress beyond Manchester will require more diplomacy than winning a deal in Europe.
There will probably be quick changes to the constituency boundaries to reduce the number of seats from 650 to 600, a reform that does not require primary legislation but will make it even harder for Labour to win seats.There will probably be quick changes to the constituency boundaries to reduce the number of seats from 650 to 600, a reform that does not require primary legislation but will make it even harder for Labour to win seats.
Sajid Javid, the Thatcherite business secretary, has also gone further than Margaret Thatcher dared in cutting the supply of funds to the Labour Party. In future political levy payers will have to opt in to pay the political levy, ending the current inertia system whereby a union member has to opt out if they do not wish to pay the levy. That will reduce the size of political funds, the chief source of funding for the Labour party. The previous agreement to handle the funding of political parties on a bipartisan basis has been shelved. Number 10 says the idea was trailed in the manifesto and Ed Miliband in principle had accepted the reform, albeit as part of a wider reform of political funding including a cap on individual donations. Sajid Javid, the Thatcherite business secretary, has gone further than Margaret Thatcher dared in cutting the supply of funds to the Labour party. In future, political levy payers will have to opt in to pay the political levy, ending the current inertia system whereby a union member has to opt out if they do not wish to pay the levy. That will reduce the size of political funds, the chief source of funding for Labour.
It is striking that in the big three public service areas – schools health and welfare – the overall tone is largely “steady as she goes” rather than a change of course. There is no health bill – statutory reorganisations of the most reorganised public service are now out of fashion, even though the merger of social care and health is the big task of the parliament. In schools, the education secretary Nicky Morgan will hope to create 500 free schools, and keep the pressure on coasting schools. But the Gove revolution is over. Equally Iain Duncan Smith, the work and welfare secretary has his hands full ensuring universal credit spreads to every job centre and to every category of claimant. A welfare bill, placing a cap on total welfare claims, and placing conditions on entitlement to housing support for young people, is only a foretaste of the cuts to welfare likely to be spelled out later in the year. The previous agreement to handle the funding of political parties on a bipartisan basis has been shelved. No 10 says the idea was trailed in the manifesto and Ed Miliband in principle had accepted the reform, albeit as part of a wider reform of political funding including a cap on individual donations.
But the big politics of the next 12 months may not lie in close scrutiny of the bills, announced today but in the decisions ahead on public finances, in the 8 July budget and Autumn spending review, and of course in David Cameron’s renegotiation of the UK’s relationship with the EU. It is striking that in the big three public service areas – schools health and welfare – the overall tone is largely “steady as she goes” rather than a change of course. There is no health bill – statutory reorganisations of the most reorganised public service are now out of fashion, even though the merger of social care and health is the big task of the parliament.
In schools, the education secretary Nicky Morgan will hope to create 500 free schools and keep the pressure on “coasting” schools. But the Gove revolution is over.
Equally Iain Duncan Smith, the work and welfare secretary, has his hands full ensuring universal credit spreads to every jobcentre and to every category of claimant. A welfare bill, placing a cap on total welfare claims and placing conditions on entitlement to housing support for young people, is only a foretaste of the cuts to welfare likely to be spelled out later in the year.
But the big politics of the next 12 months may not lie in close scrutiny of the bills, but in the decisions ahead on public finances, in the 8 July budget and autumn spending review and, of course, in Cameron’s renegotiation of the UK’s relationship with the EU.
Cameron’s room for manoeuvre on public finances is slight, but he has decided to tie his hands further by keeping the manifesto proposal for a triple lock blocking any rise in income tax, VAT and national insurance contributions in the lifetime of this parliament.Cameron’s room for manoeuvre on public finances is slight, but he has decided to tie his hands further by keeping the manifesto proposal for a triple lock blocking any rise in income tax, VAT and national insurance contributions in the lifetime of this parliament.
The big decision for Osborne lies in his choosing a path to achieving a budget surplus. The Resolution Foundation in a briefing point out that the Chancellor could also decide to aim for an overall budget surplus by 2019-20 rather than by 2018-19 (the party’s manifesto didn’t give a specific target date). A one year delay would reduce the maximum required consolidation from £38bn to around £25bn. By 2018-19, spending could be around £16bn higher (or taxes lower) compared to the plans set out in the last budget. The big decision for Osborne lies in his choosing a path to achieving a budget surplus. A briefing from the Resolution Foundation pointed out: “The chancellor could also decide to aim for an overall budget surplus by 2019-20 rather than by 2018-19 (the party’s manifesto did not give a specific target date). A one-year delay would reduce the maximum required consolidation from £38bn to around £25bn. By 2018-19, spending could be £16bn higher (or taxes lower) compared with the plans set out in the last budget.
“At a stroke this would make the implied cuts for non-protected departments and welfare slightly more plausible (if still very severe), mark an ‘end to austerity’ by the middle of the parliament and soften (at the margins) the pressure on the Bank to keep monetary policy on the floor.” “At a stroke, this would make the implied cuts for non-protected departments and welfare slightly more plausible (if still very severe), mark an ‘end to austerity’ by the middle of the parliament and soften (at the margins) the pressure on the Bank to keep monetary policy on the floor.”
But if Osborne rejects this course, the first two years of this parliament are going to be tough, and all the talk of a one-nation government might look very tarnished by the end of 2017. That just strengthens the case for a quickie renewal of Britain’s wedding vows with Europe in a referendum held in 2016. But if Osborne rejects this course, the first two years of this parliament are going to be tough and all the talk of a one-nation government might look very tarnished by the end of 2017. That just strengthens the case for a quickie renewal of Britain’s wedding vows with Europe in a referendum held in 2016.