How TV news let the Tories fight the election on their own terms
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Version 0 of 1. The dramatic Conservative election win may have surprised those who put their faith in the polls, but it followed a media campaign in which the party rarely had to move outside its policy comfort zone. Our analysis of the major evening TV bulletins shows issues where the Conservatives were seen as strong, such as the economy and a potential SNP-Labour coalition were among the dominant themes. And while the broadcasters are required to seek balance, the rightwing press was responsible for pushing Tory-friendly issues to the forefront of TV news. In over 2,000 news items between 30 March and 6 May, the main topics addressed by broadcasters were “horse-race” coverage – notably in how close a contest it was meant to be between Labour and Conservatives – a possible coalition government, the handling of the economy and levels of taxation. Between them, they made up 43% of the entire TV election news agenda. In contrast, Labour’s campaign issues – the NHS or housing for instance – were covered far less. While there was some variation between broadcasters, social policy issues were not widely reported anywhere. The scale of the Tory win suggests the focus on polling and possible coalitions was misplaced, but the coverage clearly played into the Conservative strategy of using the prospect of the SNP exerting power over Labour to frighten voters. The pre-eminence of the SNP was also reflected in the attention paid to its leader over the six-week campaign. As a share of all TV election airtime between the main party leaders, Nicola Sturgeon made up 13.3% – greater than Nigel Farage’s 12.3% – and substantially more than Green party leader Natalie Bennett’s 3.4% and Plaid Cymru’s Leanne Wood’s 2.8%. In the limited airtime granted to non-party sources – excluding citizens – the electoral contest or the state of the economy dominated the debate. Business leaders, accounted for close to a fifth of time – 18.3% – while think tanks made up 10.3%, with the IFS regularly called upon for its analysis of the parties’ economic promises. Pollsters alone accounted for 12.3% of non-party sources, but the “horse-race” angle was exacerbated by the reliance on newspaper journalists or media figures, who accounted for 27% of airtime. Although 12.6% of airtime was granted to academics, they were not primarily used as experts on policy matters, but as psephologists predicting electoral outcomes. This consolidated the dominant narrative of the campaign as a close contest between the two main parties and drew attention to the SNP’s potential coalition power. And it meant most policy issues, with the exception of the handling of the economy, were marginalised. To what extent can rightwing newspaper agendas be traced in TV news? There were several moments when newspaper splashes shaped major bulletins, such as the leaked memo about Nicola Sturgeon’s alleged support for David Cameron and Tory MP Michael Fallon’s attack on Ed Miliband’s character. But two letters in particular, published in the Daily Telegraph, helped reinforce the Tory’s economic credibility at key points in the campaign. When 103 business leaders wrote in support of the Conservative party, it was the lead story on three bulletins on 1 April. That evening it occupied 38% of election news airtime. Although less prominently covered, when 5,000 small business leaders similarly wrote in support of the Conservative party it shaped election coverage on 27 April. While the letter was received with scepticism by some broadcasters, it was reported on most of the bulletins – and reinforced the Tory’s campaign tune on a day when the party conveniently launched its small business manifesto. However, when more than 140 health professionals wrote a letter to the Guardian attacking the government’s record on the NHS, or when a poll of leading economists questioned the government’s austerity measures was reported in the Independent, neither carried the same editorial influence across TV as the views of business leaders in the rightwing press. All broadcasters sought to report the campaign seriously and extensively. However, due to flawed polling, a preoccupation with coalition deals, and following stories broken in the press, broadcasters’ agendas were pushed towards covering Conservative campaign issues. In doing so, it marginalised other key policy areas and limited the opportunities for more independent reporting. That helped the Conservatives fight the campaign on the issues that suited them best. The Cardiff University study examined bulletins on Channel 5 at 5pm, Channel 4 at 7pm and at 10pm on BBC, ITV and Sky News. Research by Richard Thomas, Allaina Kilby, Marina Morani and Sue Bisson. |