Was this an earthquake in Spanish politics? Not quite, but it’s coming soon

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/26/spanish-politics-elections-catalan-vote-spain

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So, has there been an earthquake in Spanish politics after Sunday’s local and regional elections as many had expected? The short answer is no. The two establishment parties, the ruling conservative People’s party and the opposition Socialists, have seen their long-time hegemony further eroded, but together they still hold more than 50% of the vote. On the other hand, the new parties that represent Spain’s protest vote, the left-leaning Podemos and the centre-right Ciudadanos, have had good but not great results – around 12% and 6% of the vote respectively. As some had suspected all along, opinion polls were overestimating their strength.

And yet, while the size of the protest vote was greatly exaggerated by the pollsters, we now run the risk of underestimating the magnitude of what has happened. Because a lot has happened indeed. The ruling People’s party has seen most of its local and regional power wiped out in one go. Madrid and Barcelona, Spain’s biggest cities, are now likely to be ruled by parties representing the “indignados”, the Spanish forerunner of what came to be known as the Occupy movement. Nationwide, the radical party Podemos has become instrumental in forming leftwing majorities, and as things stand it’s now in a position to form a government in alliance with the Socialists come the next general election later in the year. It may not be an earthquake but it’s certainly far more than a mere shakeup.

Is it possible that having vented their anger, voters could turn back to the more traditional parties?

A lot will depend now on how both Podemos and the Socialists handle coalition-building in the different cities and regions. Not an easy task in Spain. The Spanish voter tends to frown upon political alliances, which are irrationally seen as betrayals. With the current mistrust of the political class, this will prove even more problematic, especially for Podemos. Its supporters see the Socialist party as no better than the conservatives, and some will resent entering a coalition with them. Tensions between the pragmatists and the orthodox have already prompted minor scuffles within the party. Equally, many Socialists see the ideological gap between them and Podemos as too wide and would have preferred an arrangement with the other, more moderate, protest party, Ciudadanos.

This is perhaps the most under-reported angle in Sunday’s elections. The secret hope of the two traditional parties was to have a more amenable third force to coalesce with if needs be. Most of the media and the financial establishment joined enthusiastically in the effort to prop it up. But with a squalid 6% of the vote nationally, Ciudadanos has turned out to be a damp squib. Whether they like it or not, the Socialists have to grapple with the fact that if they want to form a majority after the next general election, then Podemos looks like their only possible partner.

The question remains as to how solid the Podemos vote is. Is it possible that having vented their anger, voters could turn back to the more traditional parties? That could well happen, and in normal circumstances might be what we would expect. But it’s less likely in this case. The Socialist party has not yet recovered from its never-ending internal crisis and Podemos’s symbolic success in Madrid and Barcelona will help them keep the momentum.

And finally, there’s the unspoken question mark which hangs over Spain’s near future. Despite being left aside for the duration of the campaign it’s still there: the stubborn Catalan issue. At least in theory, there will be a Catalan regional election in September which – if it finally takes place – will be no ordinary vote. The Catalan government intends to turn it into a referendum on independence, no less, and if Sunday’s results are replicated then it may actually win it. Much has been made of the fact that last Sunday the main pro-independence party lost the city of Barcelona. That is certainly a serious blow, but what few seem to have noticed is that the pro-independence camp as a whole has increased its support substantially and has effectively won the election in Catalonia.

That doesn’t mean it’s a done deal for the pro-independence parties either. Come September, they may get a majority of seats in parliament but without a majority of votes. In any case, turmoil is almost guaranteed and, depending on what happens next, the national political debate as a whole could abruptly change tack, making the result of the general election in November even more unpredictable. Now, that would be an earthquake.