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| Migrant Crisis in Southeast Asia Shows Signs of Ebbing | Migrant Crisis in Southeast Asia Shows Signs of Ebbing |
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| HONG KONG — No boats of Southeast Asian migrants have landed since the last one washed ashore in Indonesia a week ago. Search and rescue vessels from Malaysia and Indonesia have found no more migrants at sea. Some refugees appear to be returning to Myanmar. | HONG KONG — No boats of Southeast Asian migrants have landed since the last one washed ashore in Indonesia a week ago. Search and rescue vessels from Malaysia and Indonesia have found no more migrants at sea. Some refugees appear to be returning to Myanmar. |
| And American reconnaissance flights over the Andaman Sea the last two days spotted just one boat with about 11 people visible on the main deck. | And American reconnaissance flights over the Andaman Sea the last two days spotted just one boat with about 11 people visible on the main deck. |
| While no one is willing to say definitively that there are no more boats out there, or to rule out a future exodus, the evidence suggests that the worst of the migration crisis that swept across Southeast Asia this month may have passed. | While no one is willing to say definitively that there are no more boats out there, or to rule out a future exodus, the evidence suggests that the worst of the migration crisis that swept across Southeast Asia this month may have passed. |
| Just two weeks ago, thousands of migrants from Bangladesh and Myanmar, abandoned by traffickers and turned away by several countries, faced the prospect of dying at sea for lack of food and water. | Just two weeks ago, thousands of migrants from Bangladesh and Myanmar, abandoned by traffickers and turned away by several countries, faced the prospect of dying at sea for lack of food and water. |
| Aid groups estimated that from 6,000 to 20,000 migrants were stranded in the Andaman Sea or the Malacca Strait, trapped in decrepit boats after the Thai authorities closed the deadly jungle camps that traffickers had used to detain the migrants to extract further payments before taking them to Malaysia. | Aid groups estimated that from 6,000 to 20,000 migrants were stranded in the Andaman Sea or the Malacca Strait, trapped in decrepit boats after the Thai authorities closed the deadly jungle camps that traffickers had used to detain the migrants to extract further payments before taking them to Malaysia. |
| One prominent aid worker, Chris Lewa, whose reports first brought international attention to the crisis, now says the number of migrants trapped at sea may have been 7,000 to 8,000, at the low end of her initial estimate. | One prominent aid worker, Chris Lewa, whose reports first brought international attention to the crisis, now says the number of migrants trapped at sea may have been 7,000 to 8,000, at the low end of her initial estimate. |
| “Maybe I was not that far off, and maybe there are no more boats left,” she said this week. “People are asking me, how many are left at sea? I have no clue.” | “Maybe I was not that far off, and maybe there are no more boats left,” she said this week. “People are asking me, how many are left at sea? I have no clue.” |
| About 3,500 migrants have arrived in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in recent weeks, the International Organization for Migration says, with the last arriving last Wednesday. | About 3,500 migrants have arrived in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in recent weeks, the International Organization for Migration says, with the last arriving last Wednesday. |
| Of those who did not reach those countries, many migrants from Myanmar — members of the Rohingya ethnic group who had been fleeing persecution — may have returned there. | Of those who did not reach those countries, many migrants from Myanmar — members of the Rohingya ethnic group who had been fleeing persecution — may have returned there. |
| Rohingya in Myanmar have told Ms. Lewa’s group that as many as 2,000 people who had been held in boats off the Myanmar coast have now gone back ashore, paying the smugglers as much as $300 to smuggle them back in so that they could avoid being arrested for illegally re-entering Myanmar. | Rohingya in Myanmar have told Ms. Lewa’s group that as many as 2,000 people who had been held in boats off the Myanmar coast have now gone back ashore, paying the smugglers as much as $300 to smuggle them back in so that they could avoid being arrested for illegally re-entering Myanmar. |
| The Myanmar government does not consider them citizens, rendering them effectively stateless. | The Myanmar government does not consider them citizens, rendering them effectively stateless. |
| One Rohingya shopkeeper at a camp for displaced people in Sittwe, a coastal city that is the capital of Rakhine State, said he had counted about 50 neighbors returning home from ships in recent days. The shopkeeper, U Maung Maung Tin, said they decided to return after it became clear that their route to Malaysia had been cut off. | One Rohingya shopkeeper at a camp for displaced people in Sittwe, a coastal city that is the capital of Rakhine State, said he had counted about 50 neighbors returning home from ships in recent days. The shopkeeper, U Maung Maung Tin, said they decided to return after it became clear that their route to Malaysia had been cut off. |
| He said they had to pay the equivalent of $180 to $275 to the smugglers before being allowed to disembark. The traffickers sometimes kept people in boats just offshore for months while they filled their holds with as many people as possible before setting sail some 600 miles across the Andaman Sea to southern Thailand. | He said they had to pay the equivalent of $180 to $275 to the smugglers before being allowed to disembark. The traffickers sometimes kept people in boats just offshore for months while they filled their holds with as many people as possible before setting sail some 600 miles across the Andaman Sea to southern Thailand. |
| The Myanmar government seized a boat with 208 people on board last week. Bangladesh has agreed to accept 200 of them, whom the Myanmar government said were Bangladeshis, the Myanmar government reported on Tuesday. | The Myanmar government seized a boat with 208 people on board last week. Bangladesh has agreed to accept 200 of them, whom the Myanmar government said were Bangladeshis, the Myanmar government reported on Tuesday. |
| On Monday, a United States Navy P-8A Poseidon plane spotted one possible migrant boat in good condition with about 11 people visible on deck, a Defense Department official said, declining to give specifics such as the location of the vessel. The aircraft, a modified version of a Boeing 737 jet, flew out of Subang, Malaysia, and had not spotted any migrant boats on an earlier flight on Sunday. | |
| Ms. Lewa said her group had not received word of any departures from Myanmar since the beginning of May. | Ms. Lewa said her group had not received word of any departures from Myanmar since the beginning of May. |
| If the estimate of 7,000 to 8,000 was correct, that could still leave 2,000 or more migrants unaccounted for. But officials from the Malaysian and Indonesian offices of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees stress that no one knows how many migrants, if any, remain at sea. | If the estimate of 7,000 to 8,000 was correct, that could still leave 2,000 or more migrants unaccounted for. But officials from the Malaysian and Indonesian offices of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees stress that no one knows how many migrants, if any, remain at sea. |
| “I’m a bit surprised that those numbers haven’t actually been found,” Richard Towle, the refugee agency’s representative in Malaysia, said in a telephone interview on Monday from Kuala Lumpur. “We estimate that there are still groups out there, but it’s difficult to hazard any guess on the numbers. That’s longhand for saying we don’t know.” | “I’m a bit surprised that those numbers haven’t actually been found,” Richard Towle, the refugee agency’s representative in Malaysia, said in a telephone interview on Monday from Kuala Lumpur. “We estimate that there are still groups out there, but it’s difficult to hazard any guess on the numbers. That’s longhand for saying we don’t know.” |
| The numbers of migrants reported at sea have always been estimates, but they seem to have taken on a life of their own. | The numbers of migrants reported at sea have always been estimates, but they seem to have taken on a life of their own. |
| When Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand agreed on May 20 that Indonesia and Malaysia would take in migrants for up to a year, the agreement referred to the “7,000 irregular migrants still at sea.” | When Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand agreed on May 20 that Indonesia and Malaysia would take in migrants for up to a year, the agreement referred to the “7,000 irregular migrants still at sea.” |
| That figure, however, was not based on intelligence that the three governments had collected. | That figure, however, was not based on intelligence that the three governments had collected. |
| Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, speaking by telephone from Jidda, Saudi Arabia, said that the figure was based on news reports. | |
| Journalists, in turn, based their reports on estimates from the migrant rights organizations and the governments. | Journalists, in turn, based their reports on estimates from the migrant rights organizations and the governments. |
| Vice Adm. Jumpol Lumpiganoon of the Thai Navy said he did not know how the governments came up with the 7,000 figure, saying in a telephone interview that he guessed the number came from the United Nations. | Vice Adm. Jumpol Lumpiganoon of the Thai Navy said he did not know how the governments came up with the 7,000 figure, saying in a telephone interview that he guessed the number came from the United Nations. |
| But the United Nations refugee agency based its estimates for the size of the seaborne migrant population on the May 20 agreement. From that figure of 7,000, it subtracted the number of people who had landed in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as what it estimated to be about 2,000 people in boats off the Myanmar and Bangladesh coasts, to say that there may be as many as 2,000 people still on the open sea. | |
| Joe Lowry, the Asia-Pacific spokesman for the International Organization for Migration, said his organization tried to stay close to the estimates given by Ms. Lewa, though his group figured that the actual number who were at sea may have been closer to 8,000. | Joe Lowry, the Asia-Pacific spokesman for the International Organization for Migration, said his organization tried to stay close to the estimates given by Ms. Lewa, though his group figured that the actual number who were at sea may have been closer to 8,000. |
| Even if the immediate crisis has subsided, the underlying problems that caused it have not. About one million Rohingya still live in Myanmar, where they face discrimination and marginalization. And the human traffickers who abandoned their quarry at sea after Thailand cracked down on their operations are likely to return to their trade as long as there is demand, trafficking experts say. | Even if the immediate crisis has subsided, the underlying problems that caused it have not. About one million Rohingya still live in Myanmar, where they face discrimination and marginalization. And the human traffickers who abandoned their quarry at sea after Thailand cracked down on their operations are likely to return to their trade as long as there is demand, trafficking experts say. |
| Ms. Lewa, a native of Belgium who was speaking by telephone on Monday from the Indonesian province of Aceh, joked that if she had known that the governments would base their estimates on her figures, she might have altered the numbers. | Ms. Lewa, a native of Belgium who was speaking by telephone on Monday from the Indonesian province of Aceh, joked that if she had known that the governments would base their estimates on her figures, she might have altered the numbers. |
| “If it’s really based on my figures, then perhaps I should have said a higher number so that both countries would have accepted more refugees from Myanmar,” she said. | “If it’s really based on my figures, then perhaps I should have said a higher number so that both countries would have accepted more refugees from Myanmar,” she said. |