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| After a Political Reversal in Alberta, ‘Anything Seems Possible’ | After a Political Reversal in Alberta, ‘Anything Seems Possible’ |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| EDMONTON, Alberta — This is the Canadian province known for oil, cowboys, rodeos and as the adopted home of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, whose Conservative Party has long dominated politics. | |
| So it seemed especially jarring when a boisterous crowd in this bastion of conservative voting known as Canada’s Texas celebrated its new premier this weekend: a woman regarded by much of the country as a leftist who vows to take on big oil and champion the poor. | So it seemed especially jarring when a boisterous crowd in this bastion of conservative voting known as Canada’s Texas celebrated its new premier this weekend: a woman regarded by much of the country as a leftist who vows to take on big oil and champion the poor. |
| The 51 newly elected New Democratic Party members who sat behind the new premier, Rachel Notley, their leader, in the swearing-in ceremony on Sunday did not resemble typical revolutionaries. Largely political novices, they dressed like junior bank managers. They include nurses, a phone technician and a yoga instructor. | The 51 newly elected New Democratic Party members who sat behind the new premier, Rachel Notley, their leader, in the swearing-in ceremony on Sunday did not resemble typical revolutionaries. Largely political novices, they dressed like junior bank managers. They include nurses, a phone technician and a yoga instructor. |
| The ceremony on the steps of the Alberta provincial legislature, cheered by members of a large and enthusiastic crowd who could have easily passed for hockey fans celebrating a rare Edmonton Oilers victory, signified an exceptional moment in politics in both Alberta and Canada. | The ceremony on the steps of the Alberta provincial legislature, cheered by members of a large and enthusiastic crowd who could have easily passed for hockey fans celebrating a rare Edmonton Oilers victory, signified an exceptional moment in politics in both Alberta and Canada. |
| Ms. Notley’s party not only dislodged the Progressive Conservatives from power after four and a half decades, it did so in the province where Mr. Harper created the federal conservative movement that has governed Canada since 2006. In Calgary, Mr. Harper’s longtime residence and stronghold, the New Democrats won 14 of 25 seats. | Ms. Notley’s party not only dislodged the Progressive Conservatives from power after four and a half decades, it did so in the province where Mr. Harper created the federal conservative movement that has governed Canada since 2006. In Calgary, Mr. Harper’s longtime residence and stronghold, the New Democrats won 14 of 25 seats. |
| “It’s a reasonably big shift,” said Paul Fairie, a political scientist at the University of Calgary. “If you demonstrate to people that the N.D.P. can win in Alberta, suddenly anything seems possible, although nothing is guaranteed.” | “It’s a reasonably big shift,” said Paul Fairie, a political scientist at the University of Calgary. “If you demonstrate to people that the N.D.P. can win in Alberta, suddenly anything seems possible, although nothing is guaranteed.” |
| Canadians often hedge their bets by voting in opposite directions federally and provincially. But Ms. Notley’s victory in the May 5 vote is not the only recent boost for the New Democrats. Historically the third-place party in Canada, it nearly swept Quebec outside of Montreal during the last federal election, replacing the Liberals as the official opposition. And Ms. Notley will join Kathleen Wynne of Ontario and Philippe Couillard of Quebec, both Liberals, in the ranks of premiers of major provinces who are actively challenging Mr. Harper’s agenda. | Canadians often hedge their bets by voting in opposite directions federally and provincially. But Ms. Notley’s victory in the May 5 vote is not the only recent boost for the New Democrats. Historically the third-place party in Canada, it nearly swept Quebec outside of Montreal during the last federal election, replacing the Liberals as the official opposition. And Ms. Notley will join Kathleen Wynne of Ontario and Philippe Couillard of Quebec, both Liberals, in the ranks of premiers of major provinces who are actively challenging Mr. Harper’s agenda. |
| Ms. Notley and her colleagues have taken power just as the unexpected collapse in oil prices has turned Alberta, Canada’s boomtown province, into a place of economic anxiety. | Ms. Notley and her colleagues have taken power just as the unexpected collapse in oil prices has turned Alberta, Canada’s boomtown province, into a place of economic anxiety. |
| One study this month forecast that the province will lose about 151,000 oil industry jobs this year. Last week the federal statistics agency reported that Alberta led the country in claims for unemployment benefits during March. | One study this month forecast that the province will lose about 151,000 oil industry jobs this year. Last week the federal statistics agency reported that Alberta led the country in claims for unemployment benefits during March. |
| Many Albertans seem to be anticipating the change brought by their votes with equal portions of eager anticipation and hand-wringing. | Many Albertans seem to be anticipating the change brought by their votes with equal portions of eager anticipation and hand-wringing. |
| Lillian Shavalier, a public bus driver in Calgary, said that she has repeatedly heard concern among passengers that the incoming provincial government might worsen things. “Everyone is in panic mode right now: this is going to be destroyed, that is going to be destroyed,” said Ms. Shavalier, who lives in nearby High River. | Lillian Shavalier, a public bus driver in Calgary, said that she has repeatedly heard concern among passengers that the incoming provincial government might worsen things. “Everyone is in panic mode right now: this is going to be destroyed, that is going to be destroyed,” said Ms. Shavalier, who lives in nearby High River. |
| Although she voted for the Wildrose Party, a Conservative splinter group, she said that she does not share her passengers’ worries about Ms. Notley. | |
| “I look at the damage the P. C.s have done in the past and I figure it can only go up from here, it can only get better,” Ms. Shavalier said. “She wants to get back in again so she’s got to earn our vote.” | |
| For Bill Marshall, an architect, it is a time of transition. Last week a Calgary Lamborghini dealership his firm designed opened, a reminder of the just-passed good times. But a government-funded hospital project is now on hold. | For Bill Marshall, an architect, it is a time of transition. Last week a Calgary Lamborghini dealership his firm designed opened, a reminder of the just-passed good times. But a government-funded hospital project is now on hold. |
| Looking out a boardroom window at a skyline significantly reshaped during the recent boom, Mr. Marshall recalled that when he arrived in Calgary from Toronto in the early 1980s, he still saw the province as a place of opportunity despite an oil industry slump at the time, more severe than the current downturn. | Looking out a boardroom window at a skyline significantly reshaped during the recent boom, Mr. Marshall recalled that when he arrived in Calgary from Toronto in the early 1980s, he still saw the province as a place of opportunity despite an oil industry slump at the time, more severe than the current downturn. |
| The Progressive Conservatives, Mr. Marshall said, lost power in part because they missed an evolution in the thinking of outsiders who followed him to Alberta looking for opportunities. | The Progressive Conservatives, Mr. Marshall said, lost power in part because they missed an evolution in the thinking of outsiders who followed him to Alberta looking for opportunities. |
| “What we’re watching here is a whole new generation of people,” Mr. Marshall said. “They’re socially minded, they’re environmentally minded. I’m not sure that the P.C.s were picking up on all those cues, the change in the demographic.” | “What we’re watching here is a whole new generation of people,” Mr. Marshall said. “They’re socially minded, they’re environmentally minded. I’m not sure that the P.C.s were picking up on all those cues, the change in the demographic.” |
| Perhaps the most prominent of the earlier newcomers from Ontario to Alberta was Mr. Harper. A Liberal in his youth, his views were greatly influenced by the University of Calgary’s economics department. His start in elected politics came as a federal candidate for the Reform Party, a Western protest group. | Perhaps the most prominent of the earlier newcomers from Ontario to Alberta was Mr. Harper. A Liberal in his youth, his views were greatly influenced by the University of Calgary’s economics department. His start in elected politics came as a federal candidate for the Reform Party, a Western protest group. |
| Mr. Harper was recruited by Reform’s founder and first leader, Preston Manning. His father, Ernest Manning, was premier from 1943 to 1968 under the banner of Social Credit, a populist party that at times was far to the right. | Mr. Harper was recruited by Reform’s founder and first leader, Preston Manning. His father, Ernest Manning, was premier from 1943 to 1968 under the banner of Social Credit, a populist party that at times was far to the right. |
| Shortly before Ms. Notley appeared before the large crowd that was chanting her name, Mr. Manning dismissed the idea that her surprising victory would lead to increased national support for the New Democrats. | Shortly before Ms. Notley appeared before the large crowd that was chanting her name, Mr. Manning dismissed the idea that her surprising victory would lead to increased national support for the New Democrats. |
| “I would suggest that Canadians in other parts of the country constantly misinterpret Alberta politics,” Mr. Manning said. In his view, Ms. Notley’s ascendance reflected “just a simple time for change” vote, not an endorsement of her policies. | “I would suggest that Canadians in other parts of the country constantly misinterpret Alberta politics,” Mr. Manning said. In his view, Ms. Notley’s ascendance reflected “just a simple time for change” vote, not an endorsement of her policies. |
| Even if Mr. Manning is correct — and his view is not universally shared — the idea of change might prove contagious. Just a comparatively small shift during the election expected in October could be troublesome for Mr. Harper. In 2011, his government was returned to power with about 40 percent of popular support and its support long hovered near that level. | Even if Mr. Manning is correct — and his view is not universally shared — the idea of change might prove contagious. Just a comparatively small shift during the election expected in October could be troublesome for Mr. Harper. In 2011, his government was returned to power with about 40 percent of popular support and its support long hovered near that level. |
| What that means for the New Democrats nationally is unclear at best. | What that means for the New Democrats nationally is unclear at best. |
| Near the Flare and Derrick Community Center in Turner Valley, Alberta — birthplace of the province’s oil and gas industry a century ago — Ruth Theriault, a grandmother from Bath, Ontario, who was visiting family, said Alberta’s political shift had captured the attention of neighbors back home. | |
| “I hope that the Liberals get in federally and the N.D.P. would be a good second party,” she said. “The Conservatives have been there a long time and I don’t care for this emphasis on the oil, I think there’s a lot of people against sending our troops overseas and I think it’s nice to get some young people.” | “I hope that the Liberals get in federally and the N.D.P. would be a good second party,” she said. “The Conservatives have been there a long time and I don’t care for this emphasis on the oil, I think there’s a lot of people against sending our troops overseas and I think it’s nice to get some young people.” |
| She said the Liberal Party leader, Justin Trudeau, was “young, he’s well traveled, I think he has a really good understanding.” | She said the Liberal Party leader, Justin Trudeau, was “young, he’s well traveled, I think he has a really good understanding.” |
| Unlike in Alberta, the Liberals are the default left-of-center choice in much of the rest of Canada. So the popular appeal of Mr. Trudeau, a son of the former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, may prove the New Democrats’ biggest hurdle to national power. | Unlike in Alberta, the Liberals are the default left-of-center choice in much of the rest of Canada. So the popular appeal of Mr. Trudeau, a son of the former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, may prove the New Democrats’ biggest hurdle to national power. |
| Ms. Notley, a former labor lawyer, shares Mr. Trudeau’s charisma and has an aura of competence. But star power eludes Tom Mulcair, the New Democrat’s federal leader. Although Mr. Mulcair kept a discreet distance from the Alberta election, it now seems likely that voters across Canada will view Ms. Notley’s performance over the coming months as a preview of a federal government led by the New Democrats. | Ms. Notley, a former labor lawyer, shares Mr. Trudeau’s charisma and has an aura of competence. But star power eludes Tom Mulcair, the New Democrat’s federal leader. Although Mr. Mulcair kept a discreet distance from the Alberta election, it now seems likely that voters across Canada will view Ms. Notley’s performance over the coming months as a preview of a federal government led by the New Democrats. |
| Ms. Notley’s agenda is more one of a shift in emphasis than a raised fist. She has promised to review royalties paid by oil and gas companies to the province. In her speech on Sunday, she emphasized improving Alberta’s environmental record — an indirect criticism of the oil industry. She spoke of the need to alleviate poverty and her desire to mend relations with the province’s large aboriginal population, another situation strained by oil development. | Ms. Notley’s agenda is more one of a shift in emphasis than a raised fist. She has promised to review royalties paid by oil and gas companies to the province. In her speech on Sunday, she emphasized improving Alberta’s environmental record — an indirect criticism of the oil industry. She spoke of the need to alleviate poverty and her desire to mend relations with the province’s large aboriginal population, another situation strained by oil development. |
| One of the largest cheers came when the province’s chief justice officially announced that the Conservative government was no more. For now, it seems, just change in government is enough. | One of the largest cheers came when the province’s chief justice officially announced that the Conservative government was no more. For now, it seems, just change in government is enough. |
| “It is springtime in Alberta and a fresh wind is blowing,” Ms. Notley said. “To harness its potential, the hard work begins today.” | “It is springtime in Alberta and a fresh wind is blowing,” Ms. Notley said. “To harness its potential, the hard work begins today.” |