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| Why this man could stymie David Cameron’s EU plans | Why this man could stymie David Cameron’s EU plans |
| (about 17 hours later) | |
| The election of Andrzej Duda as Poland’s new president is likely to further complicate David Cameron’s ongoing negotiations with the European Union regarding the UK’s future in the bloc. | The election of Andrzej Duda as Poland’s new president is likely to further complicate David Cameron’s ongoing negotiations with the European Union regarding the UK’s future in the bloc. |
| Duda, a member of the nationalist Law and Justice party and a staunch conservative who once supported two-year jail terms for partaking in IVF treatment, was elected with 53% of the vote, defeating incumbent Bronisław Komorowski in a run-off on Sunday, according to exit polls. | |
| Some in Cameron’s negotiating team might well feel encouraged by the fact that Duda, a member of the European parliament since 2014, sat with the Eurosceptic and anti-federalist European Conservatives and Reformists grouping, which includes the Tories. | Some in Cameron’s negotiating team might well feel encouraged by the fact that Duda, a member of the European parliament since 2014, sat with the Eurosceptic and anti-federalist European Conservatives and Reformists grouping, which includes the Tories. |
| Additionally, Poland’s president-elect publicly voiced support for a devolution of powers from Brussels to EU member states during his campaign, saying he was interested in “strengthening the guarantee of sovereignty within the framework of national legislation”. Duda added that the EU “shouldn’t be a structure which is associated by its citizens with prohibitions, orders and complicated regulations”. | Additionally, Poland’s president-elect publicly voiced support for a devolution of powers from Brussels to EU member states during his campaign, saying he was interested in “strengthening the guarantee of sovereignty within the framework of national legislation”. Duda added that the EU “shouldn’t be a structure which is associated by its citizens with prohibitions, orders and complicated regulations”. |
| If Cameron thinks he has gained an ally in his negotiations with Brussels, he is likely to be disappointed | If Cameron thinks he has gained an ally in his negotiations with Brussels, he is likely to be disappointed |
| But if Cameron thinks he has gained an ally in his negotiations with Brussels, he is likely to be disappointed, especially when it comes to what appears to be the key issue for British voters: the freedom of movement of EU citizens to the UK and their subsequent rights once in the country. | But if Cameron thinks he has gained an ally in his negotiations with Brussels, he is likely to be disappointed, especially when it comes to what appears to be the key issue for British voters: the freedom of movement of EU citizens to the UK and their subsequent rights once in the country. |
| Duda’s Law and Justice, which is currently in the parliamentary opposition, positions itself as the most patriotic party. Its leaders make a point of boasting about its uncompromising stance if Polish interests are at stake. Crucially, the party faces parliamentary elections in October, which if it wins, would give it control of both the legislative and the presidency thanks to Duda’s victory. | Duda’s Law and Justice, which is currently in the parliamentary opposition, positions itself as the most patriotic party. Its leaders make a point of boasting about its uncompromising stance if Polish interests are at stake. Crucially, the party faces parliamentary elections in October, which if it wins, would give it control of both the legislative and the presidency thanks to Duda’s victory. |
| Acquiescing to any deal involving restrictions on the rights of the roughly 800,000 Poles currently living in the UK would be considered tantamount to treason by Duda’s nationalist base, seriously harming his and his party’s patriotic credentials. Additionally, many of those 800,000 Polish emigrants have family members in Poland who would be unlikely to think favourably of any party that agreed to restrictions on the rights they enjoy in the UK. | Acquiescing to any deal involving restrictions on the rights of the roughly 800,000 Poles currently living in the UK would be considered tantamount to treason by Duda’s nationalist base, seriously harming his and his party’s patriotic credentials. Additionally, many of those 800,000 Polish emigrants have family members in Poland who would be unlikely to think favourably of any party that agreed to restrictions on the rights they enjoy in the UK. |
| Law and Justice has already faced some harsh criticism in Poland for allying with the Tories in the European parliament. President of the European council and former Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has accused the party of “acting against Polish interests” by teaming up with the Tories in Brussels, while Cameron talks of restricting the rights of Poles in the UK. Duda and his party colleagues will be particularly sensitive to these kinds of accusations in the run-up to the October polls. | Law and Justice has already faced some harsh criticism in Poland for allying with the Tories in the European parliament. President of the European council and former Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has accused the party of “acting against Polish interests” by teaming up with the Tories in Brussels, while Cameron talks of restricting the rights of Poles in the UK. Duda and his party colleagues will be particularly sensitive to these kinds of accusations in the run-up to the October polls. |
| Cameron can likewise expect little cooperation on the issue of EU migration from the current ruling party, the centre-right Civic Platform, which will be fighting an uphill battle to stay in power. | Cameron can likewise expect little cooperation on the issue of EU migration from the current ruling party, the centre-right Civic Platform, which will be fighting an uphill battle to stay in power. |
| Related: For David Cameron, the best answer to the Europe question is a quick one | Andrew Rawnsley | Related: For David Cameron, the best answer to the Europe question is a quick one | Andrew Rawnsley |
| Moreover, although the day-to-day running of the government is in the hands of the Polish PM, Ewa Kopacz, the country’s constitution grants the president significant prerogatives in the spheres of foreign and defence policy as well as veto power over parliamentary legislation. | Moreover, although the day-to-day running of the government is in the hands of the Polish PM, Ewa Kopacz, the country’s constitution grants the president significant prerogatives in the spheres of foreign and defence policy as well as veto power over parliamentary legislation. |
| Duda is also likely to take full advantage of his bully pulpit in the period preceding the parliamentary elections so even if she wanted to, Kopacz would find it very difficult to sign up to any agreement with Cameron without the new president’s consent. | Duda is also likely to take full advantage of his bully pulpit in the period preceding the parliamentary elections so even if she wanted to, Kopacz would find it very difficult to sign up to any agreement with Cameron without the new president’s consent. |
| Duda’s election this week has shaken up the Polish political scene which had been dominated by Komorowski’s ruling party for the past eight years. In the next few months there will be a fierce struggle between Law and Justice and Civic Platform for the hearts and minds of Poles. In this struggle, neither party can afford to be seen as neglecting the interests of the Polish people. Based on this it would appear that from now up until October at least, David Cameron should not be expecting much compromise from Warsaw regarding the issues of freedom of movement and the rights of EU migrants in the UK. | Duda’s election this week has shaken up the Polish political scene which had been dominated by Komorowski’s ruling party for the past eight years. In the next few months there will be a fierce struggle between Law and Justice and Civic Platform for the hearts and minds of Poles. In this struggle, neither party can afford to be seen as neglecting the interests of the Polish people. Based on this it would appear that from now up until October at least, David Cameron should not be expecting much compromise from Warsaw regarding the issues of freedom of movement and the rights of EU migrants in the UK. |
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