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| Version 6 | Version 7 |
|---|---|
| Welfare reform: leaked document outlines financial crisis facing executive | Welfare reform: leaked document outlines financial crisis facing executive |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The BBC has seen a document in which Finance Minister Arlene Foster outlines the financial crisis facing the Northern Ireland Executive. | The BBC has seen a document in which Finance Minister Arlene Foster outlines the financial crisis facing the Northern Ireland Executive. |
| Her paper, obtained by the Nolan Show, has been circulated to other executive ministers. | Her paper, obtained by the Nolan Show, has been circulated to other executive ministers. |
| In it, she said no deal on welfare would mean the executive having to make cuts of £604m in order to balance its books. | In it, she said no deal on welfare would mean the executive having to make cuts of £604m in order to balance its books. |
| Mrs Foster said health could lose £280m and education £114m. | Mrs Foster said health could lose £280m and education £114m. |
| Bleaker picture | Bleaker picture |
| A so-called black hole would be created because loans offered in the Stormont House Agreement depend on the welfare issue being resolved. | A so-called black hole would be created because loans offered in the Stormont House Agreement depend on the welfare issue being resolved. |
| There are no indications, however, if she would be prepared to bring this level of cuts forward. | |
| The paper also presents an even bleaker picture in the absence of any budget being agreed and passed by July. | The paper also presents an even bleaker picture in the absence of any budget being agreed and passed by July. |
| Then the permanent secretary of the Department of Finance would take control. | Then the permanent secretary of the Department of Finance would take control. |
| Mrs Foster, in her paper, stated that under legislation, income received such as planning fees and EU farm payments could not be spent. | Mrs Foster, in her paper, stated that under legislation, income received such as planning fees and EU farm payments could not be spent. |
| She said this would leave Stormont facing a £2.8bn shortfall. | She said this would leave Stormont facing a £2.8bn shortfall. |
| Analysis | Analysis |
| John Campbell, BBC News NI Economics and Business Editor | John Campbell, BBC News NI Economics and Business Editor |
| This memo increases the pressure on other parties ahead of the proposed vote on welfare reform. | This memo increases the pressure on other parties ahead of the proposed vote on welfare reform. |
| It sketches out a worst case scenario for the budget if there is no agreement - what we might call Arlene Foster's nuclear option. | It sketches out a worst case scenario for the budget if there is no agreement - what we might call Arlene Foster's nuclear option. |
| The big number is a £2.8bn cut which the minister says would have to be imposed if civil servants took control of the budget. | The big number is a £2.8bn cut which the minister says would have to be imposed if civil servants took control of the budget. |
| In cash terms that would mean slashing the budget by about 20% which would have a grave impact on public services. | In cash terms that would mean slashing the budget by about 20% which would have a grave impact on public services. |
| Agriculture Minister Michelle O'Neill later released a statement saying that farmers' subsidy payments were safe. | |
| The Sinn Féin minister said the application window closed last Friday and there was a "firm contractual obligation on government to make these payments", which were funded "ultimately from the European Commission", to the 27,000 farmers who had applied. | |
| Regional Development Minister Danny Kennedy said he would have to reflect on his position if the deadlock over welfare reform is not resolved by next Tuesday. | Regional Development Minister Danny Kennedy said he would have to reflect on his position if the deadlock over welfare reform is not resolved by next Tuesday. |
| Speaking after the five Executive parties met the Secretary of State Theresa Villiers at Stormont House on Thursday morning, Mr Kennedy warned that the institutions were in a "very perilous state". | Speaking after the five Executive parties met the Secretary of State Theresa Villiers at Stormont House on Thursday morning, Mr Kennedy warned that the institutions were in a "very perilous state". |
| "I don't find the prospect of presiding over a zombie department in any way appetising," he said. | "I don't find the prospect of presiding over a zombie department in any way appetising," he said. |
| Northern Ireland's politicians are due to debate the welfare reform bill in the assembly next week. | Northern Ireland's politicians are due to debate the welfare reform bill in the assembly next week. |
| Sinn Féin has said it will ask other parties to back a petition of concern against the bill. The SDLP has refused to say whether it would support that. | |
| The main Stormont parties held talks with Ms Villiers on Wednesday but failed to produce any sign of a resolution to the continuing deadlock over the budget and welfare reform. | The main Stormont parties held talks with Ms Villiers on Wednesday but failed to produce any sign of a resolution to the continuing deadlock over the budget and welfare reform. |
| The Northern Ireland parties had agreed a deal on Westminster's welfare reform in the Stormont House Agreement last December. | The Northern Ireland parties had agreed a deal on Westminster's welfare reform in the Stormont House Agreement last December. |
| However, Sinn Féin withdrew its support for the bill in March. | However, Sinn Féin withdrew its support for the bill in March. |