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The Guardian view on eastern Europe and the EU: get it right in Riga The Guardian view on eastern Europe and the EU: get it right in Riga
(2 days later)
The Riga summit on the European Union’s eastern partnership policy may not make many headlines, but the issues that will be debated on Thursday and Friday in Latvia are major ones all the same. They will shape a big dimension of Europe’s future, including how it can deal with a more assertive Russia. The talks will centre on how to adapt and develop the EU’s strategy towards six post-Soviet countries: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The eastern partnership was set up in 2009 in the aftermath of the Russia-Georgia war. Its stated goals are to produce a “democratic, secure and prosperous” eastern neighbourhood for Europe, but without explicitly offering these countries an EU membership perspective.The Riga summit on the European Union’s eastern partnership policy may not make many headlines, but the issues that will be debated on Thursday and Friday in Latvia are major ones all the same. They will shape a big dimension of Europe’s future, including how it can deal with a more assertive Russia. The talks will centre on how to adapt and develop the EU’s strategy towards six post-Soviet countries: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The eastern partnership was set up in 2009 in the aftermath of the Russia-Georgia war. Its stated goals are to produce a “democratic, secure and prosperous” eastern neighbourhood for Europe, but without explicitly offering these countries an EU membership perspective.
Ukraine is by some measure the largest, most strategic and most troubled of the six countries. It is also racked by war. It should not be forgotten that Ukraine’s Maidan revolution broke out as a direct result of a crisis during the previous eastern partnership summit, in 2013. When Ukraine’s then president, Viktor Yanukovych, turned his back on an EU association agreement, crowds poured on to the streets of Kiev in protest. There could be no stronger proof of how EU diplomacy can matter to citizens.Ukraine is by some measure the largest, most strategic and most troubled of the six countries. It is also racked by war. It should not be forgotten that Ukraine’s Maidan revolution broke out as a direct result of a crisis during the previous eastern partnership summit, in 2013. When Ukraine’s then president, Viktor Yanukovych, turned his back on an EU association agreement, crowds poured on to the streets of Kiev in protest. There could be no stronger proof of how EU diplomacy can matter to citizens.
The Riga summit is more than symbolic because it aims to keep afloat the notion of European soft power, which is the EU’s ability to influence its own environment. So far the results have been, to say the least, a mixed bag. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova may be on course for democratic reform but Belarus and Azerbaijan stand out as highly repressive regimes. A major geopolitical shift has happened all the same: Vladimir Putin’s war in the Donbass has had the unintended consequence of scaring ruling elites elsewhere, who now see drawing closer to Europe as a way of countering Russia’s regional appetites. Even in Armenia, long a solid ally of Russia, there is discomfort over how the Kremlin has chosen to act in Ukraine.The Riga summit is more than symbolic because it aims to keep afloat the notion of European soft power, which is the EU’s ability to influence its own environment. So far the results have been, to say the least, a mixed bag. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova may be on course for democratic reform but Belarus and Azerbaijan stand out as highly repressive regimes. A major geopolitical shift has happened all the same: Vladimir Putin’s war in the Donbass has had the unintended consequence of scaring ruling elites elsewhere, who now see drawing closer to Europe as a way of countering Russia’s regional appetites. Even in Armenia, long a solid ally of Russia, there is discomfort over how the Kremlin has chosen to act in Ukraine.
This creates an opportunity for the EU. Finding smarter and more calibrated ways to help transform post-Soviet societies requires more focus, not less. Stabilising the east and drawing it closer to EU values is a formidable long-term task. The region’s structural weaknesses, like its authoritarism and corruption, will not disappear overnight. But through support for civil society and economic enticements, the EU should demonstrate the strategic patience needed to spread what it stands for, which is a rules-based peaceful order on the continent. This creates an opportunity for the EU. Finding smarter and more calibrated ways to help transform post-Soviet societies requires more focus, not less. Stabilising the east and drawing it closer to EU values is a formidable long-term task. The region’s structural weaknesses, like its authoritarianism and corruption, will not disappear overnight. But through support for civil society and economic enticements, the EU should demonstrate the strategic patience needed to spread what it stands for, which is a rules-based peaceful order on the continent.
In Riga, Europe should send out an encouraging message to those who hope for more freedom, prosperity and independence. Europe’s history should serve as constant warning against the logic of spheres of influence, or anything resembling the sacrifice of the interests of smaller nations in the name of big power realpolitik. The cost of letting failed states appear in Europe’s east would be tremendous. Just as important, European success stories in the region will ultimately have an impact on how Russia itself evolves, over time. Europe needs to use its power of attraction, not shy away from it.In Riga, Europe should send out an encouraging message to those who hope for more freedom, prosperity and independence. Europe’s history should serve as constant warning against the logic of spheres of influence, or anything resembling the sacrifice of the interests of smaller nations in the name of big power realpolitik. The cost of letting failed states appear in Europe’s east would be tremendous. Just as important, European success stories in the region will ultimately have an impact on how Russia itself evolves, over time. Europe needs to use its power of attraction, not shy away from it.
• This article was amended on 22 May 2015. An earlier version referred to “authoritarism” where “authoritarianism” was meant.