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EU Eastern Partnership summit will highlight failure of plan to check Russia | EU Eastern Partnership summit will highlight failure of plan to check Russia |
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A summit in Riga this week is likely to highlight the failure of the EU’s flagship programme designed to entice six former Soviet states out of Moscow’s orbit and into the embrace of Brussels. | A summit in Riga this week is likely to highlight the failure of the EU’s flagship programme designed to entice six former Soviet states out of Moscow’s orbit and into the embrace of Brussels. |
The Eastern Partnership scheme was set up in 2009 in response to Russian actions in Georgia and was meant to check Russia’s ambitions in what Moscow regards as its “near abroad”, while offering the vaguest of suggestions of future EU membership. | |
We will act more carefully with regard to Russia in the future. Perhaps there was not enough carefulness | We will act more carefully with regard to Russia in the future. Perhaps there was not enough carefulness |
The Kremlin’s intervention in Ukraine, however, combined with even less desire in the EU to see the bloc expand further, has left the Eastern Partnership concept in turmoil, with two of the six countries joining the Kremlin’s Eurasian Economic Union, explicitly designed as a rival to the EU. | The Kremlin’s intervention in Ukraine, however, combined with even less desire in the EU to see the bloc expand further, has left the Eastern Partnership concept in turmoil, with two of the six countries joining the Kremlin’s Eurasian Economic Union, explicitly designed as a rival to the EU. |
Meanwhile, Ukraine and Georgia, the most fervently pro-EU of the six, are likely to be given little in the way of carrots at the summit in Riga, to be held on Thursday and Friday. | |
At a 2013 summit of the grouping in Vilnius, Lithuania, Ukraine’s then president Viktor Yanukovych said he would not sign a free trade agreement envisaged by the programme, under pressure from Russia. The decision set in motion a chain of events that led to protests in Ukraine, Yanukovych’s downfall, the Russian annexation of Crimea and war in east Ukraine. | |
These events have loomed heavily over the Riga summit. | These events have loomed heavily over the Riga summit. |
“We have all experienced a collective shock that we have a neighbour who is willing to use any means in order to undermine sovereign choices in Europe. We thought that this time was long over,” said a top EU official in the runup to the summit. | “We have all experienced a collective shock that we have a neighbour who is willing to use any means in order to undermine sovereign choices in Europe. We thought that this time was long over,” said a top EU official in the runup to the summit. |
Amid internal EU divisions on whether the best response to this is redoubled commitment to integrating eastern neighbours or a scale-back of ambition, the result is a fudge. | Amid internal EU divisions on whether the best response to this is redoubled commitment to integrating eastern neighbours or a scale-back of ambition, the result is a fudge. |
“The EU will never allow a third country to dictate the policy it has towards other countries,” said the senior EU official. “However, we will act more carefully with regard to Russia in the future. Perhaps there was not enough carefulness, not enough outreach, not enough dialogue before.” | “The EU will never allow a third country to dictate the policy it has towards other countries,” said the senior EU official. “However, we will act more carefully with regard to Russia in the future. Perhaps there was not enough carefulness, not enough outreach, not enough dialogue before.” |
Related: Russian expansion: 'I went to bed in Georgia – and woke up in South Ossetia' | Related: Russian expansion: 'I went to bed in Georgia – and woke up in South Ossetia' |
In the runup to Riga, EU officials are publicly claiming they are still as committed as ever to the Eastern Partnership. But the rhetoric shows the bloc is now extremely worried about provoking Russia and the voices of EU member states less hawkish on Russia are in the ascendancy. | |
“We don’t want to provoke Russia and give them one more reason to be aggressive,” said another European diplomat attending the summit. “We need to be extremely careful.” | “We don’t want to provoke Russia and give them one more reason to be aggressive,” said another European diplomat attending the summit. “We need to be extremely careful.” |
Trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the EU were held this week in Brussels to iron out the details and time scale of the implementation of the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement. | |
Among some of the partner countries, enthusiasm for the project is also on the wane. Azerbaijan, aware that the EU is interested in its energy supplies anyway, has lost interest in the programme. President Ilham Aliyev will not attend the Riga summit, apparently in protest at European complaints about the country’s human rights record. Belarus and Armenia are still engaging with the programme but have become members of Vladimir Putin’s Eurasian Union, ruling out real economic or political integration with the EU. | |
That leaves Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova still keen on EU integration and eventual membership, but here it is the EU itself that is trying to slow things down. Diplomats say they are preparing to “manage expectations” of Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, because several EU countries do not want to commit even to the vague prospect of future membership as part of the Riga summit. Wrangling over the wording of the summit’s statement is ongoing. Even visa-free travel, a key carrot for Eastern partnership countries, seems unlikely to be extended to Ukraine and Georgia in Riga. | That leaves Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova still keen on EU integration and eventual membership, but here it is the EU itself that is trying to slow things down. Diplomats say they are preparing to “manage expectations” of Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, because several EU countries do not want to commit even to the vague prospect of future membership as part of the Riga summit. Wrangling over the wording of the summit’s statement is ongoing. Even visa-free travel, a key carrot for Eastern partnership countries, seems unlikely to be extended to Ukraine and Georgia in Riga. |
Before the summit, a new study released recommends the EU to do much more to counter Kremlin propaganda among Russian-speaking citizens of EU and neighbouring countries. | |
More than 90 media experts worked on the feasibility study presented by the European Endowment for Democracy, which works for greater coordination among Russian-language media resources and increased funding. | More than 90 media experts worked on the feasibility study presented by the European Endowment for Democracy, which works for greater coordination among Russian-language media resources and increased funding. |
Related: Can Ukraine save itself from Vladimir Putin and the oligarchs? | Timothy Garton Ash | Related: Can Ukraine save itself from Vladimir Putin and the oligarchs? | Timothy Garton Ash |
Peter Pomerantsev, one of the authors of the report, who writes extensively about Kremlin-controlled media propaganda, said: “One thing we discovered across the Eastern Partnership and beyond: people often don’t trust any media – be they Russian, western or their own. We need to rebuild trust in high-quality journalism.” | |
Moscow boosted its budgets in 2015 for its English-language global network RT and for Rossiya Segodnya, the state news agency headed by television propagandist Dmitry Kiselev and producing output in a dozen languages. It also has a major Russian-language arm aimed at speakers in the Baltics and elsewhere. | |
However, some express unease over the fact that many of the calls for funding Russian-language media sound like calls to play Russia at its own game. | However, some express unease over the fact that many of the calls for funding Russian-language media sound like calls to play Russia at its own game. |
“It should not mean counter-propaganda. We have to find a smarter way,” said Jerzy Pomianowski, executive director of the European Endowment for Democracy. | “It should not mean counter-propaganda. We have to find a smarter way,” said Jerzy Pomianowski, executive director of the European Endowment for Democracy. |