The Guardian view on the EU referendum: better sooner than later
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Version 0 of 1. The prime minister and the chancellor have the wind behind them for an early EU referendum. That is welcome. The Guardian has always argued against such a referendum, but now that it is coming, it should come sooner rather than later, not least because, as the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, warned on Thursday , the uncertainty risks damaging the recovery. He called for a referendum “as soon as necessary”. European and domestic political considerations also weigh in favour of a swift resolution. That points to autumn next year. David Cameron has a relatively free hand. His only commitment is to hold the referendum before the end of 2017. There is a case for saying that a longer, more careful preparation would better serve his stated goals of negotiating real change, going well beyond the kind of reform of benefit entitlements that he argues might diminish the appeal of the UK to migrant workers from other EU countries. There are questions about the impact of eurozone decisions on non-eurozone members, the role of national parliaments and the possibility of an opt-out for Britain from the “ever closer union” formula. Some of this might need changes to painfully agreed EU treaties and it is still unclear whether Mr Cameron will pursue such a maximalist agenda. His EU counterparts have left him in no doubt that there is zero appetite for any treaty change that requires the perilous course of a referendum in other EU member states. Even on a narrower agenda, negotiating with 27 other EU members, as well as with the European commission and parliament, will be a challenge and the deeper the changes sought, the longer the negotiations will drag on. EU partners will also welcome an end to the uncertainty that is now hanging over them, in particular Angela Merkel and François Hollande, who are both facing elections of their own in 2017. They too have some responsibility here. The EU as a whole would unquestionably be the worse for a British withdrawal: too dismissive an attitude on their part would be a mistake. It would also be a mistake to give only just enough to allow Mr Cameron to scrape a wafer thin victory for staying in. There needs to be a big margin for continued membership, big enough to take the wind out of Eurosceptic sails for a generation. This is a perilous game all round: all too often, referendums on EU institutions have not been substantive debates but mere popularity polls on national governments. A British withdrawal would have profound consequences; an accidental exit would be a catastrophe. With his unexpected Commons majority, Mr Cameron may now be planning to dial down the demands in order to reach a quicker fix. Even so, getting the referendum bill through a parliament where pro-Europeans in the upper house are probably a majority may not be easy, and he will understandably want to make the most of the momentum of his election victory. Yet if autumn 2016 is comfortably within the manifesto timetable, it is still 18 months away. Frustration and confusion over Europe run high in the UK, even in marginally more pro-EU Scotland. The Ukip discourse, however turbulent the current fallout from the election, has certainly not gone away. Eurosceptic Tories will become more disruptive, backed by the anti-European press barons. And the pro-EU argument, until recently almost nonexistent, is only now starting to be heard. Those who believe that modern Britain must remain a committed and active part of a strong, ambitious EU project must prepare for the fight. Playing the cards right means more than Mr Cameron and George Osborne negotiating intelligently with our EU partners. It means addressing the bigger questions at home by offering clearer leadership about what kind of country the UK wants to be, and what kind of Europe will give its members the best possible chances in a globalised world – the kind of defining challenge that Mr Cameron has ducked too often in the past. Whenever the referendum finally comes, the stakes and the risks for Britain will be extraordinarily high. But, on balance, autumn 2016 is the better choice. We want this issue closed, not left as an open wound in both British and wider European politics. |