The Guardian view on North Korea: even its elite may pay the price

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/13/guardian-view-north-korea-pyongyang

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Like so many of the lurid stories about North Korea, the claim that its defence chief was executed by anti-aircraft fire after dozing off in meetings – and more generally disrespecting ruler Kim Jong-un – should be treated with some caution. Though South Korean intelligence was sufficiently confident to report the allegation to lawmakers, the service has a patchy record on events across the 38th parallel.

Sensational tales abound, such as reports that Kim Jong-un’s aunt was variously poisoned on his orders, had a fatal stroke while rowing with him, killed herself, was left in a coma following surgery – or is still up and about. The regime confirmed the execution of Kim Jong-un’s uncle Jang Song-thaek, but we know he was not torn apart by dogs, as some said. An ex-girlfriend of the young leader, supposedly killed after starring in a porn film, turned up alive and well. One analyst notes that the armed forces minister has yet to be removed from documentaries shown on state television, as one would expect of a disgraced and dead official.

Totalitarian states run on fear, and Pyongyang is no exception. Last year, a UN inquiry concluded that it was committing systematic and appalling human rights abuses on a scale unparalleled in the modern world, citing torture, execution and arbitrary imprisonment, deliberate starvation and an almost complete lack of free thought and belief. Never mind the high-level victims, who have at least feasted at the top table: look to the tens of thousands held in political prison camps, in many cases not even for their actions, but those of a family member.

Accounts of dramatic elite deaths, however, portray the regime as capricious and unstable as well as cruel. That suits the North’s opponents; less often noted is that it suits the North too. Playing crazy has proved an astute strategy for a small, poor country that George W Bush called part of the axis of evil. The Kim family drew the obvious lesson: to avoid Saddam Hussein’s fate, they should continue developing their nuclear programme and demonstrate they might be willing to use their weapons. The country’s military spending and bellicose rhetoric reflect both its anxiety about external hostility and its calculation that the rational course is, paradoxically, to appear unhinged.

All that said, the North may be seeing the purge of senior officials at a rate unknown since the early days of Kim Il-sung’s rule in the 1950s. Whether his grandson is unnerved by possible internal challenges, or is acting from confidence, ousting top leaders could in itself create tensions he will struggle to control. The country must already contend with the disintegration of faith in the state and effect of tentative economic changes.

Predictions of a North Korean collapse are largely a matter of wishful thinking, while calls for aggressive intervention have receded over the years. Even so, closer attention to the North and contingency planning for its potential futures is essential. That coverage too often offers more titillation than information is all the more reason to try to understand what is really happening in this secretive nation.