Britain's EU referendum: who gets to vote is a potential deciding factor
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Version 0 of 1. At some point before 2017 Britain will hold an in/out referendum on EU membership. The vote may be as early as 2016. But before the debate on the merits of staying, or going, even begins, another question will need to be answered – and it could have a substantial impact on the result. Who gets to vote? The question over who will be able to cast a ballot in the EU referendum is far more complicated than may initially meet the eye. In last week’s UK parliamentary general elections British citizens, and qualifying Commonwealth citizens and citizens of the Republic of Ireland resident in the UK were, if registered, eligible to vote. These same criteria were used in the 2011 AV referendum. Related: David Cameron may bring EU referendum forward to 2016 However, citizens of EU countries residing in the UK can vote in elections for local government and the European parliament . And, following the precedent set by the Greater London Authority, EU citizens can also vote in elections for the Scottish parliament, the National Assembly for Wales, and the Northern Ireland Assembly if they are registered in Scotland, Wales, or Northern Ireland respectively. And EU nationals were able to cast a ballot in last year’s Scottish independence referendum. This is because the eligibility criteria in that vote was grounded on residency, and not on citizenship alone, which meant that EU nationals living in Scotland could have a say, while Scots not residing in Scotland couldn’t. Also, the minimum age for voting in that referendum was lowered to 16 instead of 18, which is the normal voting arrangement in UK elections. Although of course not a UK election, Ireland held two referendums to ratify the Treaty of Nice. Unlike in the country’s parliamentary elections, where British citizens residing in the Republic can vote, only Irish citizens could cast ballots those votes and are eligible to vote in constitutional referendums. Overall there is no “right” eligibility criteria. Without a written constitution, it’s all about which precedent and set of principles – citizenship, nationality or residence – the government will choose to pursue. Arguments in favour, or against, all of these approaches is valid, and equally balanced with pros and cons. However, a look at the numbers behind the different options reveals that the difference between theory and practice isn’t as balanced: the choice the government does put forward will have profound implications. Possible scenarios: If the same criteria as in the general British parliamentary election were used then there would be about 46 million eligible voters. Of these, about 3.4 million are born in Commonwealth countries, British overseas territories/crown dependencies and Ireland - meaning that if a criteria based on nationality were adopted instead (like Ireland did for its vote on the Nice Treaty, and does for constitutional referendums, for example) the number of eligible voters could drop to as low as 42.6 million (the precise number would depend on how many are also British citizens as they would still be able to cast a ballot). Wherever that figure falls is probably the lower end of the spectrum among the different possibilities the government will consider. The biggest debate between political parties is likely to centre around giving the right to vote to EU nationals that are resident in the UK. According to ONS estimates there about 2.7 million such individuals in the UK, compared with about 1.8 million Britons that live in Europe (which is more than one in three Britons living abroad). One argument will be that UK nationals living abroad will have the right to vote because of the passport they hold. However, another point of view is that the outcome of the referendum may have an impact on the lives of those 1.8 million people. At the very least it could curtail ease of doing business and access to benefits and services. At the extreme, it could lead to some having to return to Britain. It is this second argument that could be made for EU nationals that live and work in Britain. Many will have lived in the UK for a number of years (perhaps even for a longer period of time than in their country of origin). They consider Britain to be their home. They have family here. They pay their taxes here. Yet, they may not have a say in a decision that would have a huge impact on their lives. Adding EU nationals to the tally of eligible voters would bring the number of potential voters to 48.7 million. If the government were to go further and follow the example of the Scottish independence referendum, by lowering the voting age for the EU referendum to 16, then about 1.5 million more people would be added to the electorate. These, and the number of EU nationals, are of course both estimates (based on the most recent ONS population figures), and not all will be voters, and the government may well opt for partial solutions (eg EU nationals that have been residents in the UK for a minimum number of years) - but what is clear is that in a close race they could both prove to be powerful voting blocs. Adding all the possible voting groups to the 2015 general election electorate could bring the total number of eligible voters in the EU referendum to 50.2 million. This makes a difference of up to 7.6 million people between the lower and higher ends of the spectrum of options the from which the government will need to choose. Or, put another way, enough votes to change the outcome of a close referendum. If you close your eyes, you can already hear Nigel Farage warning against granting a referendum vote to millions of Europeans. Nicola Sturgeon arguing against Westminster imposing its voting system on the people of Scotland. The Lib Dems, all eight of them, calling for all EU nationals and 16-17 year olds to have a say. Stuck in the middle is David Cameron. The prime minister has a difficult decision to make even before he starts renegotiating the terms of Britain’s membership of the EU. And the repercussions of whatever the PM does choose may continue well beyond the day of the referendum. It may well decide its result. |