Marco Rubio may be the underdog in South Carolina – but he has some bite left

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/may/12/marco-rubio-underdog-south-carolina-republicans

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It was Marco Rubio’s first visit to South Carolina on Saturday, and the Florida senator surprised many when he struck a sober and even underwhelming tone in his address to around 2,000 conservative activists. But long-time Republicans in the crucial state – one of the earliest to vote in the 2016 primaries – warned against writing Rubio off.

As he has done since launching his campaign last month, Rubio told the South Carolina Freedom Summit, the state’s first big gathering of presidential candidates, his personal story as the son of Cuban immigrants who came to the United States in 1956 to seek a better life. His father worked as a bartender and his mother as a hotel maid in Las Vegas.

“They were never rich or famous, but they were successful,” Rubio said. “They found good jobs, they owned a home, they raised a family and they left all four of their children better off than themselves. They lived what came to be known as the American Dream.”

The crowd listened quietly for much of Rubio’s remarks, which at a brief 13 minutes were largely devoid of the pomp and bombast of the other Republican heavyweights who had descended on Greenville that weekend. The moment that drew the most applause came well into his speech, when he quoted Liam Neeson from the movie Taken to sum up his approach to terrorists: “We will look for you. We will find you. And you will kill you.”

The audience roared, but subsequent coverage nonetheless noted the crowd seemed to find Rubio lukewarm in comparison to two of his 2016 rivals, Wisconsin governor Scott Walker and Texas senator Ted Cruz, and short of the red-meat rhetoric that excites South Carolina conservatives. For Rubio, who is regarded as a far better orator than his opponents, it was an uncharacteristically low-key reception.

But in interviews with the Guardian, Republicans with a long history in South Carolina politics had a different take on Rubio’s prospects, and warned against drawing any sweeping conclusions from one of many opportunities GOP candidates will have to court their base. Although Rubio remains an underdog in the state, the three pillars of his campaign – hawkishness on defense, a compelling personal story, and his relative youth (he is 43) – have left South Carolinians impressed and endeared them to his candidacy.

David Woodward, a political science professor at Clemson University, was among a group of about 30 locals who attended a private roundtable with Rubio after his speech on Saturday. Although he said he was expecting “more pop” from Rubio at the Freedom Summit, Woodward said Rubio was “forthcoming and articulate” at the meeting, offering pointed responses to questions ranging from his experience to his policy vision.

Woodward also recalled an event hosted by South Carolina congressman Jeff Duncan in August 2014 known as the Faith & Freedom BBQ, where Rubio was the keynote speaker before an audience of 1,400.

“When Rubio got up to speak he was like a rock star … He lit up the room,” said Woodward, who is also a GOP pollster and consultant but not affiliated with Rubio’s campaign.

Glenn McCall, a member of the South Carolina Republican national committee and vice-chair for the 2016 convention, described Rubio as “the future of the party”.

“I know a lot [of South Carolinians] really appreciate him, like his youthfulness, the manner in which he articulates his message,” McCall said. “He’s just a very attractive candidate … and where we definitely need to be moving towards.”

Rubio’s ties to South Carolina date back to his ambitious run for the Senate in 2010, a turning point he recalled in his speech. Jim DeMint, then the state’s senator, embraced Rubio early on, whereas the establishment had backed his opponent Charlie Crist, who at the time was the state’s governor.

“DeMint is highly thought of in conservative Republican circles. and the fact that he brought Rubio here and helped Rubio’s candidacy means a lot here in South Carolina,” said Woodward.

Although Rubio won that election on a Tea Party wave, his carefully crafted campaign has sought to maximize his appeal to mainstream Republicans while retaining his conservative bona fides. If the central theme of his campaign has been a muscular foreign policy, Rubio has spoken equally about economic opportunity and criticized Democrats for waging class warfare.

He has spoken little of social issues, navigating questions on gay marriage cautiously when asked. And on immigration, Rubio has tried to overcome skepticism within the base when it comes to the comprehensive reform bill he co-authored that passed the Senate in 2013, while standing firm on his support for a pathway to citizenship.

The conventional wisdom is that Rubio alienated conservatives by pushing the immigration issue, even though he has since distanced himself from comprehensive reform and emphasized the need to first address border security. The issue is particularly sensitive for Republicans, who have failed to attract Latino voters in large numbers as their hardliners remain steadfast in their opposition to giving what they refer to as “amnesty” for undocumented immigrants.

The anti-immigration talk was prevalent among a number of speakers at Saturday’s summit – Rick Santorum, who will launch his presidential campaign later this month, even targeted legal immigration. The crowd, gathered in one of the more conservative pockets of upstate South Carolina, lapped up the tough talk on the border.

Rubio did not specifically mention immigration reform in his speech, although he later said in a local interview that, after securing the border, the country would “have to address at some point … the plight of 12 million people that are in this country illegally that have not otherwise violated our laws.”

Hugh Hewitt, a conservative radio host and influential figure who has sat down with nearly all of the GOP candidates, disputed the notion that Rubio’s stance on immigration will be a liability in South Carolina or other early voting states. Such reports, he said, are “vastly overstated”.

“I don’t think it’s going to be a stumbling block or hurdle for him,” Hewitt told the Guardian, adding that the hype had been created by “the passion of the small percentage of people who care deeply about the issue in an almost absolutist way”.

McCall agreed, attributing the criticism to a small faction of conservatives who are simply louder in their opposition as opposed to larger in number. Referring to a meeting he attended on Thursday with local Republicans, McCall said younger voters were especially vocal about the need to resolve the country’s immigration crisis.

“Most of the folks appreciated the work [Rubio] did at least putting himself out there with a plan,” he said.

Hewitt said primary voters will ultimately make their decision on “soft factors, like emotional appeal, passion, maturity, [and the] ability to answer questions”. Rubio, along with Walker, Cruz and former Florida governor Jeb Bush, have proved the most impressive in interview settings, he claimed.

Bush, Walker and Cruz all fare better than Rubio in early polling among likely primary voters in South Carolina. Woodward, who conducted a February poll showing Rubio polling in single digits, said the senator faces “stiff competition” but will improve as voters get to know him better.

The senator’s visit on Saturday was coupled with several activities to make sure that happens – in addition to private meetings, he toured downtown Greenville with the city’s mayor, Knox White. The two walked through an arts festival being held that weekend, where Rubio stumbled upon an artist from Miami whose parents were Cuban exiles.

“From what I can tell he got a great response; people seemed to know who he was,” Knox said in an interview, adding that Rubio and former Texas governor Rick Perry had made the most visits to South Carolina over the past year.

One potential roadblock to Rubio and other early frontrunners is that Lindsey Graham, South Carolina’s senior senator, is also weighing a run for president. Like Rubio, he co-authored the Senate immigration bill, although it did not affect his re-election last year - in which he defeated six primary challengers.

Graham is also one of the leading defense hawks in Congress and, according to Hewitt, will be Rubio’s biggest obstacle to winning over primary voters in South Carolina - a state with a heavy military presence and significant veteran population. Last fall, Graham said in an interview that Rubio was “not quite ready” to be president.

It was a notable shift in tone from what Graham told conservatives at the South Carolina barbecue Rubio headlined last August. Then, he called Rubio the “son of Ronald Reagan when it comes to national security”.

Rubio has until early next year to convince primary voters that the latter assessment is truer than the former.