The seats to stay up for – and the numbers that matter – on election night
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Version 0 of 1. Lyndon B Johnson’s first rule of politics was that practitioners need to be able to count. It is a maxim that British politicians will be testing to the limit from moments after the first results are declared on Friday morning. The Conservatives have edged ahead in recent weeks’ polling and as things stand are more likely than Labour to win the most seats. However, the likely Commons arithmetic still favours Ed Miliband’s Labour. This is because the sum of the parties who would vote down a Conservative government would, based on current figures, outnumber those that would vote in favour of one. But not by much. To overturn the arithmetic, the Tories would need to win about 290 seats (and Labour 260). On 280 seats, with Labour on 270, which is roughly where polls are pointing to right now, Cameron can’t (quite) do it. However, with polling this tight 24 hours before voting begins, the election is self-evidently close. Add to that the remaining factors of uncertainty: the divergence in results produced by phone and internet polling during the course of the campaign – and the distribution of the votes of smaller parties, ie where Ukip and Green votes fall. The final arithmetic will ultimately be decided not just by how many seats each party gains, but by how many they can cling on to – especially when it comes to Labour in Scotland and the Conservatives in England. Key issues for the parties Here’s what Lyndon Johnson (if he was here) would be looking out for on the night: The answer to these questions will decide who has the numbers to form a government. Results to look out for Here are 20 results (in order of expected declaration time) to look out for on election night for hints at how each party’s prospects are shaping up. 1) Nuneaton: 1am is the first Tory-held marginal that is expected to declare. Five years ago, the Conservatives won the seat with a small majority. Labour now leads in the polls and this is the kind of seat Miliband’s party needs to pick up if they are to win the election. If Labour does not win here, it could an early warning that it could be an uncomfortable night for Labour. 2) Rutherglen & Hamilton West and Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: 2am are the first tangible indication that we will get of Labour’s fortunes in Scotland. The party is expected to hold on in Rutherglen and to lose by a small margin in what was the constituency of Gordon Brown. If the SNP take both seats, they may well be on course to win 50+ overall. 3) Northampton North: 2am and Kingswood and Cleethorpes 2.30am, are the first tests of the night for the Conservatives. The Tories lead in these constituencies in pre-election polls and losing control of these seats could be an early sign that Cameron is on his way out of No 10 – regardless of what happens to Labour’s results in Scotland. 4) Eastleigh, Yeovil, Bermondsey and Old Southwark: 2am-3am we will get a first impression of how many seats the Lib Dems might end up losing. Clegg’s party is expected to retain all three of these (it is is defending the first two against the Tories, while in London, Simon Hughes is up against Labour). Defeats here and the Lib Dems are heading for a bad night. 5) Swindon South, Amber Valley, High Peak, Croydon Central, Stockton South, Lincoln: 3am these constituencies are the Conservatives last line of defence. Cameron’s party hold a small lead in the polls in each. If the Tories start conceding these, the likelihood of Cameron not staying in No 10 increase significantly. 6) Lincoln, Bedford, Erewash, Hampstead & Kilburn, Weaver Vale, Enfield North, Bury North, and Hastings & Rye: from 3am word should start trickling in from these seats that Labour is expected to gain from the Conservatives (or retain in the case of Hampstead, which was won with a tiny majority in 2010). If they fail, it may well mean that Cameron can contemplate a relaxing breakfast in No 10. 7) Renfrewshire East and Paisley & Renfrewshire South: 3am Jim Murphy, leader of the Scottish Labour party, and Douglas Alexander, Labour’s campaign chief and shadow foreign secretary, will find out if they held on to their respective seats. Polls have both losing out to the SNP: a loss of one or the other will be one of the most talked about events of the night. Meanwhile, Dunbartonshire East will set the tone for the Lib Dems’ night in Scotland: will tactical voting by the Tories help the party avoid near wipeout north of the border? 8) Thurrock: 3am this could be where Ukip win their first seat in a general election. But this doesn’t mean that Nigel Farage can celebrate yet, as no poll has showed his party is behind here, while the party leader’s own race in South Thanet is a lot closer. 9) Bristol West, Brent Central and Hornsey & Wood Green: 3am These are three Lib Dem held seats high on Labour’s list of targets. If Labour does not gain the 10 or so seats it expects to take from Clegg’s party in England and Wales, then the party is struggling to get Miliband into No 10. 10) Sheffield Hallam: 4.30am the constituency of Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg will be the most closely watched outcome of the election’s 650 races. It is also possibly the most important contest from a political point of view: if Clegg loses his seat, his party’s pro-Conservative coalition preferences could change. 11) Colne Valley, Norwich North, Pudsey, Stevenage, Brighton Kemptown, Halesowen & Rowley Regis: from 4.30am If the polls are right, these will all be close results and whether the Tories hold on to most of them, or Labour gains here, will provide good idea of who between the Labour and the Conservatives will emerge as the largest party. 12) Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey: 5am The chief secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, is expected to lose his seat. But could Hugh Grant’s late endorsement save him? 13) Cornwall North, Dorset Mid and Poole North, Torbay, and St Austell & Newquay: from 5.30am Attention shifts to the south. In south-west England, outcomes from tight Lib Dem v Tory races are expected after 5.30. By the time we get these results, they will probably matter most in determining whether or not the Conservatives will be the largest party and the size of the Lib Dem contingent in the next parliament (the party has 15 seats in the region). 14) Finchley & Golders Green: 5am In the seat that was once held by Margaret Thatcher, the polls point to a dead heat. The result could be the cherry on the cake for Labour in London, where the party is expected to gain eight seats – its strongest regional performance. 15) South Thanet: 6am Over breakfast, we will find out if Nigel Farage has been successful in his bid to become an MP. If the Ukip leader does not win the seat, he has said he will resign. The result here will not only decide Farage’s political future, but that of his party, too. |