Election morning briefing: at last some good news for Clegg
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Version 0 of 1. The big picture Nick Clegg might well be starting the day with a smile on his face. First, there was the Guardian/ICM poll that found him on course – despite earlier polling predictions – to save his own seat. OK, it’s no Cleggmania II: his seven-point lead in Sheffield Hallam is because almost half the people (48%) who say their nationwide preference is for the Conservatives are planning to support the Lib Dem leader (leaving the Tories’ own candidate in the constituency on a measly 12%). And a party leader retaining his own seat is hardly the stuff of electoral dreams. (Those with long memories might also recall that a last-minute Sheffield rally doesn’t always bode well.) But the Lib Dem leader has had a further boost from the Independent, which has backed him in an editorial that called for the continuation of the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition. You can read the story here and the editorial itself here: Nick Clegg may not personally recover from the tuition fees debacle, despite being right (eventually). But history will record him as the man who turned a party of protest into one of government. As a principled, effective politician who could hold another coalition together, we hope he keeps his seat. Clegg should insist on being education secretary in the next government, the Independent says, before adding: Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence. The Times, too, has taken a sympathetic look at Clegg’s five years in government and decided he deserves another shot: The deputy prime minister has been more maligned than any politician in Britain these past five years. Most of that criticism has been unfair, though he did block much needed electoral boundary reform. He has nonetheless taken the opprobrium with good grace and conducted himself with civility. It would be a shame if that were rewarded with expulsion. Most of the criticism of Nick Clegg has been unfair http://t.co/jp9stoSr6j pic.twitter.com/hEGazl3zbQ The newspaper endorsement is a funny beast, and readers are not always happy with the editorial stance taken (as the Guardian well knows). But if nothing else, Clegg’s boost will be well discussed on social media today – and that’s not an arena he has dominated so far in this campaign. There will be – and has already been – discussion too of the possible role of father-and-son owners of the Independent, Alexander and Evgeny Lebedev. Certainly the latter seemed rather won over by David Cameron in an interview he conducted himself – with lots of pictures of them together – for the Evening Standard (which the Lebedevs also own, and which is expected to unveil its own endorsement of the Conservatives). In February, Lebedev Sr told the Guardian it would be up to his editors to decide which political parties to back. Certainly the Independent on Sunday took a different stance, insisting it would stay “true to our name … while our rivals have reverted to their ideological bunkers” and not advise its readers which way to vote. (Cross Independent readers – and the comments under the editorial suggest there are a few – might prefer Steve Richards’ take, in the same organ.) You should also know: Guardian front page, Tuesday 5 May 2015: Miliband’s warning – NHS faces financial bombshell pic.twitter.com/WzCBjprPBg There was no bollocking. There was just a sense that … um. I just thought, I’ve got to turn the dial up. Read Nadia Khomami’s summary of all Monday’s key moves here. And with just two days to go, here’s how the polls shape up: Our model takes in all published constituency-level polls, UK-wide polls and polling conducted in the nations, and projects the result in each of the 650 Westminster constituencies using an adjusted average. Methodology. Diary Today, expect to hear more from the two main parties on their key pushes: Labour on the NHS and the Conservatives on the economy. The big issue Two days before the polling stations open and we are in a strange zone in which politicians are mocked for publicly stating that they can win a majority, but regarded with suspicion at the mere hint that they might be considering how they might govern, post-Thursday. So the Telegraph leads on “Ed Miliband[’s] plot to become prime minister even if he does not win election”, suggesting Labour could attempt to woo the Liberal Democrats to lessen the reliance of a minority government on the SNP. The BBC reports that in the event that the Tories have the most seats but are short of an outright majority – the scenario towards which many polls now lean – a Lib-Lab deal could enable them to outvote the Conservatives: There would be many hurdles to be overcome before any Labour-Lib Dem minority government could be formed. It would be accused by opponents of being a ‘coalition of the losers’. Many Lib Dems would be opposed to minority coalition: not only would the party have to compromise yet again on its policies in return for power, but it would also have even less chance of getting its own policies implemented. Alternatively, as my colleagues Patrick Wintour and Rowena Mason report, Cameron could try to “cling on to power” with the support of the Lib Dems and Democratic Unionists. They offer a helpful guide to the (albeit not very helpful) rules: It is argued that the Cabinet Manual – the civil service book setting out the rules on the transfer of power – states a prime minister can stay only until the point at which it is clear they cannot command the confidence of the Commons; not when any other party demonstrates they can form a majority or requires a vote in the House. The relevant section of the manual states: “Where an election does not result in an overall majority for a single party, the incumbent government remains in office unless and until the prime minister tenders his or her resignation and the government’s resignation to the sovereign. An incumbent government is entitled to wait until the new parliament has met to see if it can command the confidence of the House of Commons, but is expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative.” The argument will then turn on whether convention expects the prime minister to resign as soon as it is clear that they no longer command a majority. Some argue precedent, with expert opinion saying the leader of the largest opposition party will be appointed prime minister. Related: Election 2015 interactive: who is ahead in the polls where you live? The Guardian’s data editor, Alberto Nardelli, says the permutations make tactical voting this Thursday “an even more important issue than in other elections”. Here’s his guide to how to do it. Read these The view from abroad today, as the world wonders who it’ll be dealing with come Friday: Voters over the age of 40 are twice as likely to vote Ukip as those under 40. That may be because older voters have different priorities. While the economy, unemployment and education all rank high as concerns for the overall British electorate, they’re lower on the list of worries among those who are going into, or are already in, retirement. That works to the disadvantage of other parties claiming that Britain’s economic stability would be jeopardised by exiting the European Union. And that works to the advantage of Ukip, which is not well-versed in policy areas like the economy, having focused almost exclusively on the EU and immigration. David Cameron, 48, the red-cheeked toff who went to Eton and belonged to snooty clubs; and Ed Miliband, 45, the gawky, adenoidal, agnostic son of a Marxist Jewish refugee and historian … Both Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband, though part of a younger generation of leaders, have pulled their parties back to the past, toward older ideologies. Face it, my beloved Britons: you’ve got a weird electoral system. You might think it’s normal that the Greens could get 10% of the vote and just one seat, while the SNP might end up with 4% and 50 seats. But it’s not. Even if it does stop Ukip. Even the name is funny: first past the post. It sounds like a board game in which a team of journalists and a team of politicians jump from one marginal seat to another, with a rich lord called Ashcroft tossing the dice. If the Greens are going to increase their support further, they’re going to have to appeal to parts of the city where politics – of whatever hue – cuts very little ice. A good example is Redcliffe, where we spend two hours following a Green team around some threadbare low-rise flats. One twentysomething mother to be doesn’t know there’s an election on; neither do a group of young men crowded around a stairwell, though their spirits are lifted by news that the Greens support the decriminalisation of weed. The day in a tweet Chalking up half a point for the Lib Dems for their “women are just like regular human beings” video. Now how about some more female Lib Dem MPs? Watch the #libdems Women's Manifesto – it's easy to understand and filled with lots of pink! https://t.co/4j25hVSKou If today were a TV drama, it would be… Poldark. Compare and contrast: the Cornish cliffs. The grey, grey sea. The manly stare. The devoted onlooker(s). Nick Clegg at Land's End at the start of his journey. pic.twitter.com/Gql9aSWEJw The key story you’re missing when you’re election obsessed Fox News in the US has apologised after wrongly reporting that a man had been shot “multiple times by police” in Baltimore, a city already riven with tension after six police officers were charged in connection with the death of Freddie Gray. Fox News host Shepard Smith told viewers: “What happened is, we screwed up.” |