Election polls: Tories clearly edging ahead in final weeks
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Version 0 of 1. The polls have been in deadlock since the middle of March, with Labour and the Conservatives both hovering around 33.5%. But now the Tories have pushed ahead. While figures this week have ranged from a Conservative 6 point lead to a Labour 3 point advantage, it is not the size of a lead that is so important but the relative vote share of the two parties within individual polls. Here the trend is clear and consistent: support for the Tories during the campaign has ranged on average from 32.5% to 35.5% compared with Labour’s 32%-34.5% – and the Conservatives are now polling closer to the top of their range. Over the past two weeks, David Cameron’s party has opened up a 2 point lead in the Guardian’s average of polls. The Tories ended the week on about 34.5%, 2 points ahead of Labour. However, while these percentages would probably make the Conservatives the largest party due to the losses Labour is expected to make in Scotland, this would not automatically mean that Cameron stays in Downing Street. The prime minister can “let rip” all he wants, and the leader of the Labour party can say “let me be clear about this” all he wants, but in the end they will need to face the harsh brutality of the maths. Related: Election 2015: The Guardian poll projection In a week’s time, Britain will almost certainly wake up the next morning to a hung parliament with no party holding an outright majority. According to the Guardian’s latest projection of polls, the Tories are projected to win 276 seats, Labour 267, the SNP 55, the Lib Dems 27, the DUP nine, Ukip three and the Greens are set to retain their one seat. Both Cameron and Miliband would need the votes of other parties if they are to command the confidence of the House of Commons. And as things stand, the arithmetic is to the advantage of Miliband. This is because the sum of the “anti-Tory” bloc – those parties that have said they would vote a Tory government down – currently adds up to 329 seats: a majority. Tallying up all the possible sources of support for a Cameron-led government yields 315 votes. In order to have the numbers he needs to stay in government, the PM needs his party to win about 290 seats, and for Labour to drop to 260. The differences from here to there may seem small, and if the Tories’ current 2 point lead turns into 4 or 5 points in the next five days, Cameron may well find he has done enough to cling on. However, under the bonnet of the two blocs, the mechanics that could propel one to No 10 are more complicated for Cameron than they are for Miliband. The Conservatives’ only viable option is to roughly cut by a third the 39 seats the party is currently projected to lose to Labour. With less than a week to the election, Cameron still needs the polls to change more than Miliband does – and there is no firm evidence to suggest this will happen nor that the current upward trend in the polls will last to polling day. However, going into the final week of the election, the Tories have some other reasons to be optimistic beyond their recent polling. If the Conservatives are to hold on to the seats they need to win the election they will need a substantial number of current Ukip supporters to change their mind in key marginal constituencies. Because of this, a focus on the possible threats posed by the SNP, which pulls at English nationalist heartstrings, is far more helpful to Cameron’s cause than if he had been in a position where he was debating his record on immigration a week from polling day. There was a moment during Thursday’s BBC Question Time when Cameron’s right flank was exposed. A member of the audience pleaded with him to stop talking like an accountant, always failing to see the “moral dimension”. The Tory brand remains toxic for some. Only Ukip is disliked more. According to Ipsos Mori, Cameron is viewed as out of touch with the concerns of ordinary people by 65% of voters. That’s more than Margaret Thatcher (63%) when she left office. The economy is the only issue on which the Conservatives have left the current parliament with a better rating than they went in with. And the fact that the Guardian/ICM poll released immediately after Thursday’s debate found that voters top concerns were all issues on which Labour is more trusted (the NHS, “the prospect of cuts to public services, benefits and tax credits”, and “squeezed living standards”), should spell good news for Miliband. However, Friday’s headlines weren’t about about the NHS, Europe or who has the more noble values – instead they were about New Labour’s economic record and Miliband’s potential deals with Nicola Sturgeon. The risk for Labour is that the final days of this electoral battle will probably be fought on Tory turf. |