Saudi Arabia shakeup as much about retrenchment as reform

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/29/saudi-arabia-mohammed-bin-nayef-crown-prince

Version 0 of 1.

Saudi Arabia’s real-life game of thrones has taken a dramatic turn with the surprise designation of Mohammed bin Nayef, its formidable interior minister and counter-terrorism chief, as the crown prince and heir to the kingdom.

Despite hopes of a new beginning following King Salman’s accession in January, this latest shakeup, announced on Wednesday, is as much about retrenchment as reform as Riyadh’s royals confront potentially existential challenges.

The promotion of the king’s son, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, 35, to the position of deputy crown prince – or second-in-line to the throne – looks in part like a reward for his recent work as defence minister overseeing the Saudi-led coalition’s controversial military campaign against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Both Mohammed and Bin Nayef, the king’s nephew, are grandsons of the kingdom’s founder monarch, Abdulaziz Ibn Saud.

The replacement of the veteran foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, 75, by a younger non-royal, Adel al-Jubeir, who is currently the Saudi ambassador to the US and a long-time Washington insider, strengthens the sense of generational change. By dismissing his half-brother and Abdulaziz’s youngest son, Prince Muqrin, 69, as crown prince, Salman has performed the equivalent, in British terms, of defenestrating Prince Charles and installing Prince William as the Prince of Wales.

At the age of 79, King Salman may not expect his reign to be lengthy – which is one reason for imposing his will and establishing a clear, undisputed succession early on. The changes mark the first time that power has passed beyond the control the numerous sons of Abdulaziz, who died in 1953. However, as when he launched a less extensive reshuffle in January, Salman’s royal decree stressed continuity “on the basis of service to faith, the nation and the people”. This was a sop to Saudi Arabia’s powerful religious establishment, the self-appointed guardians of the status quo and the Sunni Muslim tradition.

55-year-old Bin Nayef’s elevation is likely to be welcomed in conservative and establishment circles at home and abroad. Well regarded internationally as a pragmatic, professional politician, he is seen by the US administration and other western governments as a reliable ally. Bin Nayef will continue as the interior minister in charge of Saudi Arabia’s 200,000-strong security forces. Not coincidentally, Salman announced on Wednesday a one-month salary bonus for all military and police personnel.

Yet bin Nayef, who survived a 2009 assassination attempt by al-Qaida, is no reformer. His primary focus is security – internal and external – and most recently the challenges posed by the rise of Islamic State and al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. While he will now become deputy prime minister by virtue of being the crown prince, there is little in his record to suggest new thinking on the human and civil rights failings, including women’s rights and capital punishment, that continue to besmirch the country’s reputation.

Less noticed among Wednesday’s announcements was the sacking of Nora al-Fayez, Saudi Arabia’s first female minister and the most senior woman in government, whose attempt to shift the boundaries of women’s education attracted the hostility of religious conservatives.

Prince Mohammed, who continues as the defence minister, is more of an unknown quantity. Saudi Arabia’s unusual display of energy and leadership in assembling a military coalition to fight in Yemen may reflect his influence. On the other hand, the bombing campaign has yet to achieve its objectives and has been widely criticised for inflaming regional tensions and causing many avoidable civilian deaths.

The civil war in Yemen is but one of the worrying challenges facing Riyadh’s princes. It reflects a wider rivalry with Iran that has drawn in Gulf neighbours such as Bahrain and is being played out in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. Rightly or wrongly, Iranian leaders feel they have gained the upper hand in recent months.

Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, this month described the Saudi leadership as “mentally and emotionally unbalanced” and deplored its actions in Yemen. He said: “Unfortunately we are witnessing the intervention of some irresponsible countries in other countries, that is not only illegal according to international law but it is not compatible with Islamic law ... Destroying the infrastructure of an impoverished country and killing children, women and men makes no sense.”

Bin Nayef and the monarchy face a range of other problems, extending from tense relations with the Obama administration over Syria and its attempted rapprochement with Tehran, to plunging oil revenues and the thwarted aspirations of younger Saudis, in a country where 60% of the population is 21 or younger. Blocking private Saudi financial and other support for Sunni extremists such as Isis is another unfinished task for Bin Nayef.

Even more troubling for Riyadh’s real-life answer to Lord Tywin Lannister is the apparent return of terrorism to Saudi soil after Bin Nayef rooted out al-Qaida a decade or so ago. The royal decree coincided with the news that 93 jihadists linked to Isis have been arrested this year and that there have been several insurrectionary plots across the kingdom.