Election morning briefing: David Cameron pledges five-year ‘tax lock’

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/29/david-cameron-tax-lock-pledge-ed-miliband-tax-credits

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The big picture

Promises, promises: politicians are queuing up today to assure us that they’ll actually do what they say they will should they be in No 10 after polling day.

It’s almost as if they’re worried that voters don’t quite believe them.

Not content with a policy that rules out increasing income tax, VAT or national insurance in the next parliament, David Cameron says the Tories would introduce a law within the first 100 days of his new government explicitly to prohibit such a rise, a so-called five-year “tax lock”.

He’ll say in a speech this morning:

This is the clearest choice on the economy for a generation. And beyond the plain facts, it also comes down to gut instinct.

When you’re standing in the polling booth, ask yourself: on the things that matter in your life, who do you really trust?

Ed Miliband wants voters to trust him, too. He will promise that Labour will lift working-age tax credits at least in line with inflation:

No government led by me will cut the tax credits that working people rely on while giving tax breaks to the richest.

Instead, a Labour government will raise them at least in line with inflation in every budget.

You should also know:

Busy, busy, busy:

OK, this one was for Comic Relief:

For a full rundown of Tuesday’s developments, read my colleague Jamie Grierson’s summary here.

And here’s our latest poll of polls:

Diary

And the Scottish party leaders appear to be having some sort of gimmick competition:

The big issue

As the Guardian’s political editor Patrick Wintour puts it:

Miliband is seeking to shift up a gear in his election campaign with the broadcast of a surprise conversation with comedian Russell Brand about the value of voting and a warning about the threat to living standards posed by Conservative spending cuts.

The Conservative promise to cut £12bn in welfare spending in the next parliament, but without spelling out how it will do so, has been a strange feature of the election campaign. Critics say it should be easy to attack such a vast sum that comes with no workings. But the mantra of “we can’t afford it” lingers in any debate about benefits.

Today, Labour is dipping its toe in with an attack on a slice of those cuts: the £3.8bn to be taken out of tax credits, leaving a family with one child losing £1,600 a year once their incomes reach £23,000. Miliband will promise that a Labour government would not cut working-age tax credits, which would instead rise at least in line with inflation.

Yesterday the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned:

More than two years after first announcing a desire to cut £12bn from the social security budget in 2017–18, the Conservatives have provided details of just a 10th of this.

It is hard to see how such savings could be achieved without sharp reductions in the generosity of, or eligibility to, one or more of child benefit, disability benefits, housing benefit and tax credits.

It’s worth remembering, however, that the IFS was also clear that voters should expect to be worse off under the next government, whoever might be in it.

Read these

Those sneering at Miliband for being interviewed by a much-followed figure should ask themselves: what have I done to engage disillusioned young people who feel politics has little to offer?

If the answer is very little, or nothing, then perhaps a bit of humility is in order. It is a matter of deep concern that so many people have so little faith in democracy.

He is exasperated with the perception that he’s lazy or suffers from a sense of entitlement. He feels he has worked flat-out this year and, since the campaign began, has been visiting five or six constituencies a day, flying across the Pennines and flogging down the M5 in his battlebus.

But he has been trying to pace himself because he hates getting overtired – forgetting his football team was a clanger caused by excessively long days.

Labour could, during the closing stages of the campaign, plausibly argue that having a Scottish MP as foreign secretary offers a potentially more influential voice for the country at Westminster than a bulked-up bloc of backbench SNP MPs ever would.

The day in a tweet

If today were an ad slogan, it would be…

Any time, any place, anywhere. Said by Miliband, taking on all-comers with martini glass in hand.

The key story you’re missing when you’re election-obsessed

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has removed his half-brother Moqren bin Abdul Aziz bin Saud from the post of crown prince and heir. Brothers and politics: it rarely ends well.