Lib Dems could lose £26,000 in candidates' deposits, polls suggest
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Version 0 of 1. In 2010, the Lib Dems were the only major Westminster party to lose none of their deposits. Following its crash in the polls since the last election, the party is set to lose at least £26,000 in deposits this time round – and probably considerably more. In the UK’s general election, candidates have to put forward a £500 deposit to indicate that they are serious about running, and they lose it if they fail to get 5% of the vote. There are 3,971 candidates standing for parliament, and with polls showing that smaller parties may challenge the two-party system, we looked at how much the parties are set to lose on candidates’ deposits. While there is no way of assessing each party’s strength in all 650 constituencies, data from the 156 constituencies polled by Lord Ashcroft provides a useful sample. In these constituencies, Labour is expected not to lose any deposits because all of its candidates are polling above 5%. The Lib Dems, on the other hand, would lose a third of their deposits in those seats: Clegg’s party has dropped to 8.5% in the national polls after winning 23% of the vote in 2010. Ukip is fielding candidates in 132 of the 156 constituencies polled by Ashcroft and is projected to lose its deposit in just four of them. Five years ago, Ukip lost £229,000 in deposits - but its significant improvement in national polls suggests that the total this time will be much lower. According to the Ashcroft polls, the Green party will lose 81 deposits. representing 61% of the candidates it is fielding. The party, which gained its first MP in 2010, lost 327 deposits in 2010 (£163,500), failing to jump the 5% hurdle in 98% of the seats it contested. The party is fielding 571 candidates this time round, compared with 335 five years ago. Nick Clegg’s party is set to lose 52 of its 156 deposits, according to Ashcroft’s polls, which implies that many more seats will go on 7 May. Paddy Power gives odds of 11/10 for the Lib Dems losing more than 200 deposits in this election. In general elections since 2001, Clegg’s party has only lost two deposits, so 52 would be a huge change. In 2010, 1,893 of the 4,150 candidates running for office lost their deposit, making up a total loss of £946,500. |