The SNP is full of contradictions, yet still it can ride the wave

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/20/the-snp-contradictions-manifesto-scottish

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For those who thought they’d had their fill of political cross-dressing at the Labour and Conservative manifesto launches last week, today it continued with the Scottish National party. For the first time in the party’s history, its statement of policy was directed at the whole of the UK rather than just Scotland.

At times during a typically slick launch – the marketing side of nationalism has long been its most impressive – First Minister Nicola Sturgeon sounded like a born-again unionist, speaking of “shared interests” with those beyond Scotland. If the SNP emerged from the election “in a position of influence”, she said, then it would seek to “exercise it in the interests of people not just in Scotland but across the whole of the UK”.

“Your views,” added the SNP leader, “do matter to me.”

Related: Think Nicola Sturgeon has risen from nowhere? Think again | Lesley Riddoch

That is, as long as those “views” happen to chime with SNP policy, and as long as they’re not even faintly Conservative; part of Sturgeon’s manifesto introduction states simply: “The SNP will never put the Tories into power.” But that, as well as other aspects of the document, begged the obvious question: what if England happens to want a Tory government, or at the very least gives it the most votes and seats?

Tough luck, appears to be the SNP’s response; indeed, the manifesto makes clear that even if a Conservative government is initially formed, its MPs will “vote in a motion of confidence” to prevent it “getting off the ground”. The alternative, as Sturgeon has made clear in recent weeks, is to “make a Labour government bolder and better” rather than just a “carbon copy of the Tories”.

This is fine in constitutional theory but trickier in practice – the SNP appears to have given no thought to the perceived legitimacy of a nationalist-tinged government in swaths of England, not to forget Wales and Northern Ireland – while it also risks coming across as arrogant: promising to implement “progressive politics” in the rest of the UK, whether it likes it or not, just as Margaret Thatcher “imposed” rightwing policies on Scotland in the 1980s.

Under current SNP logic, the Iron Lady had a perfect right to do so, for she commanded an overall majority within the “Westminster system”. Funnily enough, nationalists did not defend her governments on that basis at the time. Rather, up went the cry of “no mandate”. Where, then, would the English, Welsh and Northern Irish mandate be for the policies of a party that doesn’t even field candidates outside Scotland?

In ideological terms, meanwhile, the manifesto clearly indicates the SNP is on a leftward journey following more than two decades of Salmondite triangulation. The UK government is encouraged to recognise Palestine, while it has moved into line with Labour on reintroducing the 50p rate, a tax on bankers’ bonuses, a bank levy, a mansion tax and the abolition of “non-dom” status, having hitherto been reluctant to commit on many of these “progressive” moves.

But it’s also smart politics, narrowing the gap between the SNP and Labour and making a deal, however informal, more realistic. On the other hand it might also encourage Ed Miliband to call the SNP’s bluff. If Labour is the largest party, he doesn’t need nationalist support to become prime minister, and thereafter could challenge Sturgeon (who once again made clear that she, rather than Alex Salmond, would lead any negotiations) to put up or shut up. In that context, and however many MPs it had, the SNP would be in an uncomfortable position.

Related: Nicola Sturgeon reaches out to Labour at SNP manifesto launch

There were, however, the usual weaknesses, so prevalent during the long referendum campaign. At the launch, Sturgeon said the manifesto was “bursting with ideas and ambition”, but it was also bursting with spending pledges and very little explanation of how they’d be funded beyond generalities. At points it resembles New Labour in its 2005 pomp; even the word “prudent” appears, alongside a Republican-like promise to “enshrine in law” deficit reduction and a balanced budget.

But the contradictions – some of them substantial – hardly matter, for the SNP possesses both momentum and the trust of a large chunk of the Scottish electorate. The Conservative defence secretary Michael Fallon called the manifesto “the most expensive ransom note in history”, but it will make life even harder for the beleaguered Scottish Labour party.