Election tipping points: the local factors that can swing a seat

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/19/local-factors-can-swing-general-election-seat

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With less than three weeks to go, the outcome of the 2015 general election remains as uncertain as ever. Neither of the main parties has been able to gain a decisive advantage in the battle of issues and leaders, promises and policy. In such a close-fought contest, the often neglected but always important local factors that can tip the balance in marginal fights loom larger than ever. Here are five of the most important.

INCUMBENCY

The Conservatives gained 100 seats in 2010, more than in any election since 1931, and the vast majority were from Labour. These new Tory MPs had five years to build up voter loyalty by backing local campaigns and solving local problems. Research suggests this vote, if properly cultivated, can tip the balance: in 2001 Labour lost only five seats despite a two-point swing to the Conservatives, because many new MPs in ultra-marginal seats built a personal vote. Many seats may turn on the ability of new Tory incumbents to do likewise. There are intriguing hints in Lord Ashcroft’s data of such personal followings emerging. For example, Jacob Rees-Mogg, the eccentric “member for the early 20th century”, looks to have won the hearts of the voters of Somerset North East: a recent poll put him 17 points ahead in a seat that would be very tight on a uniform swing.

ORGANISATION

Few aspects of election campaigns are less glamorous than the laborious grind of canvassing. Every weekend in the months leading up to an election, small groups of volunteers armed with rosettes and clipboards patrol the streets of marginal constituencies, talking to voters, gauging opinion, and trying to build (or shore up) support. This dreary work gets little attention, but it matters: a number of careful studies have shown that hard work locally converts into extra votes. There is evidence that Labour may have a head start on this front – in almost all of Lord Ashcroft’s recent marginal seats polls, voters have reported hearing more from the Labour candidate than the Conservative.

THE ECONOMY

The Conservatives have put the economy at the centre of their campaign, but the role it plays in voters’ decisions has less to do with national statistics and more to do with individual perceptions, often driven by local economic conditions. Incumbents will have an easier time defending their record in seats where things are clearly picking up than in stagnant or struggling ones. Labour’s slightly weaker showing in the south of England may reflect the stronger economic recovery there to date. However, in struggling areas such as Thurrock or Cannock Chase, they also face stiff new competition from Ukip, which does best among poorer and economically pessimistic voters.

BIG ISSUES

Local issues matter a lot in tight races. Indeed, big local issues can swing even safe seats – the closure of the steelworks in Redcar triggered one of the largest swings in the 2010 election, handing the Liberal Democrats a safe Labour seat. Smaller local triumphs and setbacks also play a role in determining the fate of incumbent MPs, including things completely beyond their control: US research suggests politicians gain support when the local sports teams succeed and lose it when the weather is bad. The election coincides with the climax of the football season, so candidates in Ipswich, Watford and Norwich will have something extra to worry about: their fate could be tied to that of the local football teams, all in contention for promotion to the Premier League.

CHANGING ELECTORATES

A great deal changes in every marginal in the course of a five-year parliament: new voters come of age, older voters die, migrants from elsewhere in the country, or outside it, move in. The electorate in each seat is in a state of churn, but some constituencies churn more than others, and in some the churn is more consequential than in others. Inflows of migrant voters to London marginals, or university graduates to gentrifying seats in growing cities, could tip the local balance of power to Labour in some seats. Conversely, a surge in middle-class professional voters in growing suburbs, or the disappearance of large numbers of students from the electoral register due to new registration rules, could assist the Conservatives in others.