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Message discipline for Super Tuesday Message discipline for Super Tuesday
(1 day later)
Barack Obama has sold the "essence of himself"As Democrat and Republican voters go to the polls in more than 20 US states next week on Super Tuesday, our North America editor Justin Webb hankers for the early part of the race when presidential candidates could show the personal touch.Barack Obama has sold the "essence of himself"As Democrat and Republican voters go to the polls in more than 20 US states next week on Super Tuesday, our North America editor Justin Webb hankers for the early part of the race when presidential candidates could show the personal touch.
A few days ago in a sweaty crush of people after a late evening rally I managed to squeeze myself and a camera-woman to a position on the stage next to Mitt Romney, the Mormon former Governor of Massachusetts who is one of the two serious presidential hopefuls left on the Republican side.A few days ago in a sweaty crush of people after a late evening rally I managed to squeeze myself and a camera-woman to a position on the stage next to Mitt Romney, the Mormon former Governor of Massachusetts who is one of the two serious presidential hopefuls left on the Republican side.
I asked him - by way of a warm up question - whether he was going to win. He did not reply.I asked him - by way of a warm up question - whether he was going to win. He did not reply.
Nothing again in response to the repeated question - not even when, in my excitement and desperation, I called him "Mr President".Nothing again in response to the repeated question - not even when, in my excitement and desperation, I called him "Mr President".
The quaint, small scale encounters of New Hampshire and Iowa... are a thing of the past for the rest of this campaign This is known as message discipline - the sound bite he wanted out on the TV had already been given - nothing must get in its way.The quaint, small scale encounters of New Hampshire and Iowa... are a thing of the past for the rest of this campaign This is known as message discipline - the sound bite he wanted out on the TV had already been given - nothing must get in its way.
Sadly the quaint, small-scale encounters of New Hampshire and Iowa and South Carolina - when the candidate might chat or answer hecklers or even in the case of Hillary Clinton, cry - are a thing of the past for the rest of this campaign.Sadly the quaint, small-scale encounters of New Hampshire and Iowa and South Carolina - when the candidate might chat or answer hecklers or even in the case of Hillary Clinton, cry - are a thing of the past for the rest of this campaign.
The name of the game now is paid TV and internet adverts and what they call free media - stunts designed to get the candidate on the evening news. SUPER TUESDAY BBC World & News 24Wednesday 6 Feb 2008From 0000 to 0500 GMTAnd onlineThe name of the game now is paid TV and internet adverts and what they call free media - stunts designed to get the candidate on the evening news. SUPER TUESDAY BBC World & News 24Wednesday 6 Feb 2008From 0000 to 0500 GMTAnd online
(Yes, I know the tears might have been a stunt but let us be chivalrous.)(Yes, I know the tears might have been a stunt but let us be chivalrous.)
The result is a flight to safety - Mr Romney really did tell an audience the other night that this election was about "our children and their future".The result is a flight to safety - Mr Romney really did tell an audience the other night that this election was about "our children and their future".
Gosh. How startling.Gosh. How startling.
But at this stage, with so many huge contests coming up, there is no time to explain yourself if you mess up - no time to finesse a message or bore down to the core of an issue.But at this stage, with so many huge contests coming up, there is no time to explain yourself if you mess up - no time to finesse a message or bore down to the core of an issue.
Polling paradoxPolling paradox
On Tuesday in states the length and breadth of this country the candidates are simply selling an impression of themselves, of the kinds of people they are, the kinds of things they might be likely to do.On Tuesday in states the length and breadth of this country the candidates are simply selling an impression of themselves, of the kinds of people they are, the kinds of things they might be likely to do.
Primary voters think laterally, they entertain contradictions and often skate over them.Primary voters think laterally, they entertain contradictions and often skate over them.
I was standing in a doorway recently in Ann Arbour in the state Michigan. I was standing in a doorway recently in Ann Arbor in the state Michigan.
Michigan snow is disappointingly unplayful - it is too fine for snowballs (I suppose because of the cold) and when the wind blows horizontally (as it seems to all the time) crystals of this jagged stuff go right up your trousers.Michigan snow is disappointingly unplayful - it is too fine for snowballs (I suppose because of the cold) and when the wind blows horizontally (as it seems to all the time) crystals of this jagged stuff go right up your trousers.
Even anti-war Republicans respect John McCainEven anti-war Republicans respect John McCain
Anyway I stood in this doorway trying to stay warm with a man who worked in a nearby hotel - he had voted in the Michigan primary for John McCain the self proclaimed straight shooting senator who is now the party front runner.Anyway I stood in this doorway trying to stay warm with a man who worked in a nearby hotel - he had voted in the Michigan primary for John McCain the self proclaimed straight shooting senator who is now the party front runner.
If McCain is famous for anything, it is for backing the Iraq troop surge - he did it publicly and loudly last summer and at the time was generally written off for his pains.If McCain is famous for anything, it is for backing the Iraq troop surge - he did it publicly and loudly last summer and at the time was generally written off for his pains.
But the surge has worked - at least that is the narrative that plays here - and McCain is back.But the surge has worked - at least that is the narrative that plays here - and McCain is back.
So what did my fellow doorway shelterer make of Iraq? He opposed it and wanted the troops out now!So what did my fellow doorway shelterer make of Iraq? He opposed it and wanted the troops out now!
We had no time for a detailed debrief on the clash between his view and those of the candidate he had just trudged through the snow to vote for. But back in Washington, troubled by the encounter, I searched out the detailed exit polling data for Michigan.We had no time for a detailed debrief on the clash between his view and those of the candidate he had just trudged through the snow to vote for. But back in Washington, troubled by the encounter, I searched out the detailed exit polling data for Michigan.
McCain has sold Republicans the essence of himself and it may well workMcCain has sold Republicans the essence of himself and it may well work
Sure enough there is a category of Republicans who say they oppose the war and in Michigan most of them voted for McCain.Sure enough there is a category of Republicans who say they oppose the war and in Michigan most of them voted for McCain.
The only candidate to have enthusiastically backed the troop surge and talked of staying in Iraq for years, picked up most of the votes of those who think Iraq has been a disaster.The only candidate to have enthusiastically backed the troop surge and talked of staying in Iraq for years, picked up most of the votes of those who think Iraq has been a disaster.
This feels like a mistake. And yet on reflection perhaps it isn't. John McCain is a maverick, he is unbound by ties to George Bush or to his party.This feels like a mistake. And yet on reflection perhaps it isn't. John McCain is a maverick, he is unbound by ties to George Bush or to his party.
He is a man willing to consider plan B if plan B seems sensible.He is a man willing to consider plan B if plan B seems sensible.
He is intellectually flexible - he would probably not have fought the Iraq war and certainly not fought it in the way it was fought - and anti-war Republicans seem to understand this, appreciate it, and trust this man who supports a war to bring it to an end if that turns out to be the right thing to do.He is intellectually flexible - he would probably not have fought the Iraq war and certainly not fought it in the way it was fought - and anti-war Republicans seem to understand this, appreciate it, and trust this man who supports a war to bring it to an end if that turns out to be the right thing to do.
Mitt Romney does not deviate from his sound bite messageMitt Romney does not deviate from his sound bite message
They still chant inane things at his rallies (the Mac is back), and his wife still looks as if she has been put together by a team of plastic surgeons hired to construct the perfect first lady for a man of a certain age, but there is substance here as well.They still chant inane things at his rallies (the Mac is back), and his wife still looks as if she has been put together by a team of plastic surgeons hired to construct the perfect first lady for a man of a certain age, but there is substance here as well.
McCain has sold Republicans the essence of himself and it may well work. On the Democratic side Barak Obama has done the same thing.McCain has sold Republicans the essence of himself and it may well work. On the Democratic side Barak Obama has done the same thing.
I met someone in Iowa who was undecided between Obama and Ron Paul, the cheeky Republican long shot who really does oppose the Iraq war and opposes almost all central government as well.I met someone in Iowa who was undecided between Obama and Ron Paul, the cheeky Republican long shot who really does oppose the Iraq war and opposes almost all central government as well.
Aside from the war, Obama and he have little in common in policy terms, but as individuals they have both become icons for a youthful "chuck out the old crowd" movement.Aside from the war, Obama and he have little in common in policy terms, but as individuals they have both become icons for a youthful "chuck out the old crowd" movement.
Where does this leave us on Super Tuesday?Where does this leave us on Super Tuesday?
In gloriously unknowable territory.In gloriously unknowable territory.
From Our Own Correspondent was broadcast on Saturday 2 February, 2008 at 1130 GMT on BBC Radio 4. Please check the programme schedules for World Service transmission times.From Our Own Correspondent was broadcast on Saturday 2 February, 2008 at 1130 GMT on BBC Radio 4. Please check the programme schedules for World Service transmission times.