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The Guardian view on the election in Scotland: when the slogans hit the facts The Guardian view on the election in Scotland: when the slogans hit the facts
(35 minutes later)
With nearly four weeks still to go, all conclusions are necessarily provisional. There is also a risk of overinterpreting marginal changes in poll numbers. With these provisos, four large things can be tentatively said about the 2015 election campaign so far.With nearly four weeks still to go, all conclusions are necessarily provisional. There is also a risk of overinterpreting marginal changes in poll numbers. With these provisos, four large things can be tentatively said about the 2015 election campaign so far.
The first is that the Conservative party is making a terrible job of broadening its appeal, due to the negativity of its campaign and lack of sympathy for its leaders. The second is that Labour is putting together some modest but steady momentum based on traditional progressive politics. The third is that the so-called insurgent parties are slipping back in England and Wales. And the fourth is that the continuing strength of the Scottish nationalists overhangs all calculations.The first is that the Conservative party is making a terrible job of broadening its appeal, due to the negativity of its campaign and lack of sympathy for its leaders. The second is that Labour is putting together some modest but steady momentum based on traditional progressive politics. The third is that the so-called insurgent parties are slipping back in England and Wales. And the fourth is that the continuing strength of the Scottish nationalists overhangs all calculations.
All these dynamics have come together in Scotland, with two TV leaders’ debates and now a high-profile Labour attack on the SNP. The Scottish focus is not surprising, since so much is at stake between Labour and the SNP. But it is of UK-wide importance. There are two separate elections going on in Britain. Any swing from Tory to Labour in England and Wales risks being negated by a swing from Labour to the SNP in Scotland. On a uniform swing the SNP would capture 53 of Scotland’s 59 seats, a new poll implies. Labour’s potential gains south of the border would be swept away in a rout to the north.All these dynamics have come together in Scotland, with two TV leaders’ debates and now a high-profile Labour attack on the SNP. The Scottish focus is not surprising, since so much is at stake between Labour and the SNP. But it is of UK-wide importance. There are two separate elections going on in Britain. Any swing from Tory to Labour in England and Wales risks being negated by a swing from Labour to the SNP in Scotland. On a uniform swing the SNP would capture 53 of Scotland’s 59 seats, a new poll implies. Labour’s potential gains south of the border would be swept away in a rout to the north.
Nor is it surprising that the nationalists ooze confidence. The polls have gone their way ever since David Cameron’s disastrous reaction to the referendum result. Nicola Sturgeon has seamlessly taken over from Alex Salmond. The SNP’s attempt to rebrand itself as Scotland’s main progressive force continues to have Labour confused and defensive. And there is a gleeful mood in parts of Scotland about the Scottish tail’s ability to wag the British political dog.Nor is it surprising that the nationalists ooze confidence. The polls have gone their way ever since David Cameron’s disastrous reaction to the referendum result. Nicola Sturgeon has seamlessly taken over from Alex Salmond. The SNP’s attempt to rebrand itself as Scotland’s main progressive force continues to have Labour confused and defensive. And there is a gleeful mood in parts of Scotland about the Scottish tail’s ability to wag the British political dog.
Yet Ms Sturgeon made two blunders this week. The first was to imply that she wants a second independence referendum after 2016. Her subsequent attempt to tie that possibility to any UK vote to leave the EU was not watertight. It remains possible that the SNP will campaign for a wider mandate for a second referendum. That underlines how inherently fragile – and unequal – any post-election Commons agreement between Labour and the SNP could be.Yet Ms Sturgeon made two blunders this week. The first was to imply that she wants a second independence referendum after 2016. Her subsequent attempt to tie that possibility to any UK vote to leave the EU was not watertight. It remains possible that the SNP will campaign for a wider mandate for a second referendum. That underlines how inherently fragile – and unequal – any post-election Commons agreement between Labour and the SNP could be.
Ms Sturgeon’s second blunder was even more eye-watering. By affirming that SNP MPs would vote for full fiscal autonomy for Scotland, she not only puts the SNP on the Tory side of a key devolution argument, she also places Scottish separation from the UK above solidarity between its peoples. Since the SNP has also said it will not vote on non-Scottish issues, this makes SNP protestations of wanting to work with Labour look fraudulent. What would be in this for Labour?Ms Sturgeon’s second blunder was even more eye-watering. By affirming that SNP MPs would vote for full fiscal autonomy for Scotland, she not only puts the SNP on the Tory side of a key devolution argument, she also places Scottish separation from the UK above solidarity between its peoples. Since the SNP has also said it will not vote on non-Scottish issues, this makes SNP protestations of wanting to work with Labour look fraudulent. What would be in this for Labour?
Full fiscal autonomy means that what the Scottish government spends, the Scottish government raises. Apart from that, Ms Sturgeon’s government has no money, since it refuses to use its tax-raising powers. That’s why the SNP is already putting on the squeeze. Local councils are running into debt partly as the price of the SNP’s council tax freeze, which has greatly benefited the wealthiest. Scottish students are having to borrow at record levels as grants are reduced and tuition remains free, even to the rich. The NHS is enduring big funding shortfalls.Full fiscal autonomy means that what the Scottish government spends, the Scottish government raises. Apart from that, Ms Sturgeon’s government has no money, since it refuses to use its tax-raising powers. That’s why the SNP is already putting on the squeeze. Local councils are running into debt partly as the price of the SNP’s council tax freeze, which has greatly benefited the wealthiest. Scottish students are having to borrow at record levels as grants are reduced and tuition remains free, even to the rich. The NHS is enduring big funding shortfalls.
As the Institute for Fiscal Studies argues, fiscal autonomy also means that £7.6bn currently provided to Ms Sturgeon’s government by UK taxpayers would be switched off. All these gaps would either have to be made good by higher Scottish taxes or by deeper Scottish cuts. Scotland’s link with the UK pension system would be ended. And all at a time when the price of oil has collapsed.As the Institute for Fiscal Studies argues, fiscal autonomy also means that £7.6bn currently provided to Ms Sturgeon’s government by UK taxpayers would be switched off. All these gaps would either have to be made good by higher Scottish taxes or by deeper Scottish cuts. Scotland’s link with the UK pension system would be ended. And all at a time when the price of oil has collapsed.
There is no disputing that thousands of Scots have embraced the SNP in the hope that it represents a more dynamic and vernacular progressivism than Labour offers. But is this progressivism credible? To what degree is it frustrated separatism in progressive clothing?There is no disputing that thousands of Scots have embraced the SNP in the hope that it represents a more dynamic and vernacular progressivism than Labour offers. But is this progressivism credible? To what degree is it frustrated separatism in progressive clothing?
The question facing Scottish voters in May is whether the hard facts and options square with the SNP rhetoric. Scottish Labour’s Jim Murphy said on Friday that full fiscal autonomy is a slogan that has collided with some truths. It is hard to disagree – or to overestimate the importance of the big call this poses. Progressive voters outside Scotland need Scots to get this big call right. But Scots themselves need it even more. The question facing Scottish voters in May is whether the hard facts and options square with the SNP rhetoric on full fiscal autonomy. Scottish Labour’s Jim Murphy said on Friday that it is a slogan that has collided with some truths. It is hard to disagree – or to overestimate the importance of the big call it poses. Progressive voters outside Scotland need Scots to get this big call right. But Scots themselves need it even more.