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From non-doms to Trident: a perilously off-piste week for the Tories From non-doms to Trident: a perilously off-piste week for the Tories
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It is highly unlikely that, at the beginning of this week, Tory strategist Lynton Crosby’s media grid would have read: “Cameron family photoshoot, debate non-doms, get Michael Fallon to say Ed Miliband had stabbed his brother in the back and now threatens to do the same to Britain”.It is highly unlikely that, at the beginning of this week, Tory strategist Lynton Crosby’s media grid would have read: “Cameron family photoshoot, debate non-doms, get Michael Fallon to say Ed Miliband had stabbed his brother in the back and now threatens to do the same to Britain”.
Related: Labour moves ahead of Tories on the day the polls turned
For the first time in this election campaign, the Conservatives have not been able to respond to a question with their preferred answer: “long-term economic plan”. Instead they have been forced to make it personal.For the first time in this election campaign, the Conservatives have not been able to respond to a question with their preferred answer: “long-term economic plan”. Instead they have been forced to make it personal.
Consider this: on every topic debated this week, the Tories were on the wrong side of public opinion.Consider this: on every topic debated this week, the Tories were on the wrong side of public opinion.
Figures released by Survation on Thursday showed that 59% of the public backed Labour’s policy to abolish the non-domicile tax status. Only 16% are opposed. Even one in two Conservatives are in favour of the plans, with just 20% against.Figures released by Survation on Thursday showed that 59% of the public backed Labour’s policy to abolish the non-domicile tax status. Only 16% are opposed. Even one in two Conservatives are in favour of the plans, with just 20% against.
According to a YouGov poll also released on Thursday, a majority (64%) of people think Miliband was right to take on his brother, David, for the leadership of the Labour party. And most crucially, for the first time ever Miliband’s personal ratings are above those of David Cameron. According to a YouGov poll also released on Thursday, a majority (64%) of people think Miliband was right to take on his brother, David, for the leadership of the Labour party. And most crucially, for the first time, Miliband’s personal ratings are above those of David Cameron.
But make no mistake: the election remains close. Polls in the runup to the election will give varying leads to both main parties, and in the all-crucial seat calculator, Labour and the Conservatives are still virtually tied when it comes to the race to be the largest party. But make no mistake: the election remains close. Polls in the runup to the election will give varying leads to both main parties. In the all-crucial seat calculator, Labour and the Conservatives are still virtually tied when it comes to the race to be the largest party.
However, there are three important factors here. First, earlier trends showing that Miliband had closed the ratings gap with Cameron after the leaders’ interviews and debates have consolidated and been confirmed by all polls since. To date, the Tories have relied on the belief that Miliband’s lack of popularity and public doubts over his suitability for the premiership would have proved decisive. This appears to be no longer true, and the attacks aren’t putting a dent in the polling deadlock.However, there are three important factors here. First, earlier trends showing that Miliband had closed the ratings gap with Cameron after the leaders’ interviews and debates have consolidated and been confirmed by all polls since. To date, the Tories have relied on the belief that Miliband’s lack of popularity and public doubts over his suitability for the premiership would have proved decisive. This appears to be no longer true, and the attacks aren’t putting a dent in the polling deadlock.
Second, the Conservatives are now treading a perilous line. The Tories remain far more disliked than Labour, and the prime minister has consistently outpolled his party - this is why his personal lead over Miliband was so important, because the Labour leader underperforms compared to his party. In most polls Cameron still enjoys a lead over Miliband on questions about competency and preferred prime minister. But the fact that the gap is no longer in the 20-point range – at best it is half that – is now mooted by the fact that Labour is more liked. Related: Labour drawing level in the polls thanks to female support
Second, the Conservatives are now treading a perilous line. The Tories remain far more disliked than Labour, and the prime minister has consistently outpolled his party – this is why his personal lead over Miliband was so important, because the Labour leader underperforms compared with his party. In most polls, Cameron still enjoys a lead over Miliband on questions about competency and preferred prime minister. But the fact that the gap is no longer in the 20-point range – at best it is half that – is now mooted by the fact that Labour is more liked.
Having the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, call the Conservatives nasty is not where the party wants to be four weeks out from election day.Tory HQ needs a plan B. In the words of Margaret Thatcher: “If they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument”.Having the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, call the Conservatives nasty is not where the party wants to be four weeks out from election day.Tory HQ needs a plan B. In the words of Margaret Thatcher: “If they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument”.
Third, the current arithmetic is against the Conservatives, instead favouring Labour and the Scottish National party. With both parties projected to win 270-275 seats, the SNP’s 40-50 MPs will be crucial to forming a government - and Nicola Sturgeon has made clear she would back Miliband and vote down a Cameron government.Third, the current arithmetic is against the Conservatives, instead favouring Labour and the Scottish National party. With both parties projected to win 270-275 seats, the SNP’s 40-50 MPs will be crucial to forming a government - and Nicola Sturgeon has made clear she would back Miliband and vote down a Cameron government.
The fact of the matter is that Cameron needs the polls to change a lot more between now and election day than Miliband does. A lot can still happen in the next months – for starters, the parties present their manifestos next week – but public opinion moves slowly and Cameron’s time is running out. The last thing he needed was for his campaign to go off piste for a week.The fact of the matter is that Cameron needs the polls to change a lot more between now and election day than Miliband does. A lot can still happen in the next months – for starters, the parties present their manifestos next week – but public opinion moves slowly and Cameron’s time is running out. The last thing he needed was for his campaign to go off piste for a week.